The Australian reports the latest Newspoll records both parties down on the primary vote, the Coalition by one to 38% and Labor by two to 37%, making room for the debut appearance of Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party on 5%. The Greens and One Nation are both unchanged, at 9% and 4% respectively. The two-party preferred headline moves a point in favour of the Coalition, from 52-48 to 51-49 – a lot more on that shortly.
Movements on personal ratings are slightly to Bill Shorten’s favour – he is up two on approval to 39% and steady on disapproval at 51%, and his 45-37 deficit on preferred prime minister is an improvement on his 46-35 in the last poll. Scott Morrison is steady on approval at 45% and up two on disapproval to 46%. Respondents were also asked which leader they most trusted to keep their campaign promises, with Morrison very slightly favoured over Shorten by 41% to 38%. The poll was conducted from Friday to Sunday, with Thursday dropped from the usual field work period because of the public holiday, from a larger than usual sample of 2136, the norm being around 1700.
Beyond that, there is a good deal to unpack. This is the first time a result for the United Australia Party has been published, but the tables in The Australian today reveal the party was on 3% in the poll a fortnight ago, and 2% in the poll the week before that. As Peter Brent discusses in Inside Story, pollsters have an important decision to make in deciding whether to include a minor party in the primary question, or saving it for those who choose “other” out of an initial list – a decision that will have a bearing on their result. I assume the publication of the UAP result in the latest poll marks its elevation from the second tier to the first, but the publication of the earlier results may suggest otherwise.
Then there’s the two-party preferred, which raised eyebrows as the primary votes are of a kind that would normally be associated with 52-48. The answer, it turns out, is that a preference split of 60-40 in favour of the Coalition is being applied to the UAP vote. The rationale is explained in an accompanying piece by David Briggs, managing director of YouGov Galaxy, which conducts Newspoll. First, Briggs confirms this is also what it has been doing with One Nation preferences since the start of last year, earlier statements having been less exact. Of the decision to extend this to Palmer:
With the UAP there is no historical trend data we can refer to in order to estimate the likely preference flow to the major parties. We do know, however, that in the 2013 election 53.67 per cent of the Palmer United Party vote was directed to Coalition candidates. That was without a preference deal, but in the forthcoming federal election the Liberal Party will swap preferences with the UAP and this can only result in an even higher proportion of UAP votes being directed to the Coalition.
In point of fact though, the Palmer United Party’s approach to preferences in 2013 was to put Labor last in every seat (as best as I can tell — its how-to-vote cards are preserved here). I don’t believe this arose from a deal as such, and it didn’t seem to attract any publicity at that time. However, the fact remains that every Palmer United voter who followed the card ended up in the Coalition’s two-party preferred tally, which is no different from the situation at the election to come.
Briggs also points to the party breakdowns from the aforementioned question on leader most trusted to deliver on campaign promises, which found Morrison to be favoured 53-13 among UAP voters – a significant lead, even accounting for the fact that there would only have been around 100 UAP voters out of the poll sample.
The Newspoll preference split may well be vindicated in time, but for now it’s merely a hypothesis. The dynamics of Palmer’s preferences could actually prove rather complex, if the Western Australian election of 2017 is any guide. The Liberals cut a deal with One Nation in that campaign, and they indeed got a bigger cut of their preferences, from the roughly 50-50 split of the 2016 election (out of the 15 lower house seats the party contested) to 60.6%.
However, this may have had less to do with how-to-vote cards than the backlash One Nation suffered as a result of the deal, which the polls of the time indicated had cost them as much as a third of their existing support – presumably among the kind of voter most likely to preference Labor. Since the Liberals were tainted by the deal as well, nobody doubts that it backfired on them, despite its “success” in delivering a higher share of preferences from a diminished One Nation.
As Labor prepares a rhetorical onslaught against Scott Morrison over the Clive Palmer deal, we may well be about to see a similar dynamic play out federally. However, this too is merely a hypothesis. The bottom line is that extrapolating two-party preferred from primary votes right now unavoidably involves an uncomfortable amount of guess work. For better or worse though, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate will continue to be guided by previous election results in allocating preferences – and, notably, the addition of the Newspoll numbers has made almost no difference to it.
The table below compares the results from Newspoll model with two alternative approaches that might have been taken. The results are imprecise in that they rely on the rounded primary votes published by Newspoll, but it’s nonetheless worth noting that the Newspoll method gives Labor 51.4%, suggesting the headline figure was likely rounded in their favour. The next two columns along, under “Past election: A”, apply UAP preferences using Palmer United’s 53.7-46.3 split from 2013, and One Nation’s using the almost 50-50 split from 2016. The last two columns, “Past election: B”, are how it would go if the UAP was treated as just another component of “others”, and thus given the almost 50-50 split such votes followed in 2016.
| Newspoll method | Past election: A | Past election: B | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L-NP | ALP | L-NP | ALP | L-NP | ALP | |
| Primary | 38 | 37 | 38 | 37 | 38 | 37 |
| Greens | 1.6 | 7.4 | 1.6 | 7.4 | 1.6 | 7.4 |
| UAP | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| One Nation | 2.4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Others | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.4 |
| TOTAL | 48.6 | 51.4 | 47.9 | 52.1 | 47.7 | 52.3 |
doyley
I agree; good result for Labor make em a bit hungry.
The UAP candidate in that Sky Dickson ‘people’s forum’ is a blathering idiot. I’d love to know how Clive found these people, much less pre-selected them.
Using Kevin Bonhams calculator I get 47.6 TPP for Coalition
Slackboy72: “5% of primaries have gone missing (maybe through rounding???).”
Gone to 5% UAP
Is there any historical evidence that PHoN and UAP/PUP have a greater informal rate than the average?
“Using Kevin Bonhams calculator I get 47.6 TPP for Coalition”
Sounds about right.
Last post for the night.
It really is a giggle that Shoeten has closed the PPM gap and improved his satisfaction ratings while Morrison has got worse.
Really confirms the MSM line that Morrison is out campaigning Shorten and Shorten has had a shocker in the first two weeks. NOT.
PPM will be no where to be seen tomorrow.
Slackboy that 5% went to UAP maybe not directly but in the overall wash-up
The ReachTel………………..how could the West be so totally sucked in? Aan this mob are running the debate tomorrow!! Predicted score……..Morrison 50…………..Shorten 0.
However, Michael, it seems you are a totally discredited dip stick along with the West.
Pity the plague of Lib/bot/locusts who turn up like vultures, can’t move beyond cat-calling…………………..If this Newspoll is a evidence that Morrison is “winning” the campaign then, he and his supporters are more deluded than normal. To be anywhere near a win, Morrison has to conjure up a Primary (a) with a 4 in front and (b) with 2 or 3 after it. At this rate he will never do it…..and he is also losing whatever skin-deep sheen he ever had.
Would you like to apologise Michael?
The primaries for this Newspoll are very close to Bludgertrack.
Kevin Bonham also questioning the 51/49 result as published..
Hmmm. I get typical previous-election prefs (2013 PUP for UAP) for these primaries at 52.2 to ALP. With only 4% PHON (so make it 51.8 if assuming PHON 60-40), either rounding or other preferencing assumptions have got it down to 51 here. #newspoll
Well, so much for those Single Seat polls that had Cliev at 14% or so. 😆
doyley@9:44pm
I do not believe the 2PP based on the PVs. It cannot be 51-49.
IMO, Murdoch put pressure on Newspoll. Simple as that.
If Labor maintains 37% PV and Greens stay on 9% I reckon Labor is home and hosed.
nath is right and the shorten critique before him …
lead in saddlebag
We all know the PPM figures are a useless indicator, at least most of the time but when there is a change of government coming opposition leaders tend to close the gap. At this stage of the campaign, you want to see some movement in this figure IMO.
Ven,
It is 52-48 poll but that really does not matter.
The campaign is on.
That is the main game.
Cheers to you. All good.
no, i think this is accurate.
The greens (worth 9%) preferences flow about 80% to labor. The combined palmer and hanson (also worth 9%) preferences will flow about 70% to the coalition.
Assuming independents split 50/50….
0.8*9 + 37 + 0.5*7 + 0.3*9 =
7.2 + 37 + 3.5 +2.7 = 50.9%
KB is the best poll cruncher. Id trust him more than anyone with poll figures.
Of course we don’t know what the primary numbers were before rounding which may account for some of the apparent difference.
I cannot believe Palmer got 5 % after all that went with Palmer in last 2 and bit years.
Fess, the whisper is Clive has offered to pay all their campaigning fees and a 100k rider to boot.
Hell for that coin I would put my hand up too (if I was a stupid bogan).
KB is a local and along with William the one to be trusted
Early start tomorrow so goodnight all.
Hoping for a good result tonight in Spain’s election.
Would love to get up at 6am (10pm Spanish time) to find Sanchez has been returned as PM.
The PPM is meaningless.
However, it is really giving me a late night giggle seeingnShorten closing the PPM and improving his satisfaction ratings while Morrison gets worse.
The whole MSM has been ranting on about how great Morrison has campaigned and how ratshit Shorten has been.
The PPM will be nowhere to be seen tomorrow.
I think Newspolls is overstating UAP support because they want to see liberals survive this election.
So their bias is not factored in.
The media will pile on – again.
As UAP standing in 151 electorates in is appropriate to include them as much as greens and PHON.
SCOUT
Yes he is a fellow Tasmanian.
Unitary State@10:20pm
That is extremely favourable preferencing for LNP. Why does LNP deserve that high preferencing?
Silly #newspoll decision to include UAP in readout. Overstating UAP support, making 2pp less reliable.
My thoughts wayback it’s only at the margin but this qualifies as fake poll.
Bonham is correct to use historic results to calculate both ON and UAP preferences. However, going out on a limb, I reckon that Labor will do better out of UAP’s preferences in 2019 than Labor did out of PUP preferences in 2013 because this time labor isn’t the encumbant Government that is seriously on the nose – the LNP are. So I reckon that labor is no worse tha. 52.5 – 47.5 on those primaries.
We have had 2 weeks of stunts, and small slips but now it is time for the championship rounds. I reckon Labor is going to run the campaign over the past 3 weeks that it has spent the last 3 years preparing for.
Watching Sky makes me want to vote Labor. Kinda like being on PB makes me want to vote Green. There’s just something about party loyalists that makes you want to slap them across the face.
If UAP is contesting all seats I don’t see an issue with showing them separately. Don’t really understand Mumbles point. Any advice William?
Also considering the other polls had PPM indicators a negative, but newspoll is positive for PPM for Shorten.
Doesn’t make sense at all – bad sample or outliner.
So, I was right again.
A pity really. I wanted to believe you all.
I’ll read this blog for fun now, but I’m making the adjustment from tomorrow morning. I’ll pay no attention at all to the next Morrison government for at least 18 months then I might re-engage…
Good luck everyone and don’t be too hard yourselves, you meant well, all those psephological entrails and tea leaves. Just monitor the MSM. It’s all there. It’s the only way to get inside the average voters head.
Oh, Morrison will win with 80 seats and Abbott will be returned…..and Dutton.
Penny Wong needs to be given a safe lower house seat so she can take over from Bill.
Although she can of course contest the leadership before that.
HH@10:24pm
ON is standing in only 59 HOR electorates. So full preferencing as if they are contesting 151 is not correct.
Ven @ #122 Sunday, April 28th, 2019 – 10:22 pm
Most people who picked United Australia Party in a read out probably don’t even know it has anything to do with Palmer. They just see is as the alternative when they hate all the other parties and pick it without thinking. Newspoll is crap.
Unitary State @ #118 Sunday, April 28th, 2019 – 10:20 pm
Adds to 50.4 by my arithmetic.
Unitary State;
If you think about PHON (and UAP) voters, it makes sense that preference would go strongly to LNP, but thats not what has happened in the past.
Thing is, the primary driver for them is that they are protest voters disillusioned with both mainstream parties, when it gets down to 2PP they go everywhere.
This is Newscorpse making up headlines to get LNP a boost when they need it most.
Confessions @ #101 Sunday, April 28th, 2019 – 10:10 pm
Confessions, as I don’t personally know you, I’ll make an assumption that you have at least reasonable intelligence. Would you work for Clive?
‘I reckon Labor is going to run the campaign over the past 3 weeks that it has spent the last 3 years preparing for.’
If you really believe that you’re more deluded than most here.
It’s over.
Henry @ #120 Sunday, April 28th, 2019 – 8:23 pm
That’s quite a whisper Henry.
@mundo
Labor will win the electino – no need to freak out.
3 bit weeks to go – I’m not worried.
HH of Menzies House
As UAP standing in 151 electorates in is appropriate to include them as much as greens and PHON.
True but no now it’s too late, unless there are ulterior motives,.
“I cannot believe Palmer got 5 % after all that went with Palmer in last 2 and bit years.”
People are not focusing on that. Yet. They just like the motherhood statements in his ads. Aspirational. Treacle sweet. Like a hallmark card.
Also an illusion once folk focus on his stiffing of both the tax payer and his workers over the nickel refinery closure.
This bubble will burst rapidly and instead of being a lifebouy for ScoMo, his grubby preference deal will be an anchor.
mundo@10:26pm
Goodbye and don’t blog.
Bree
Your in dream world love as the coalition will not win the May election as you say so go and take a running jump love
Mundo needs to sit down for a few beers with Meguire Bob.