Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

The debut reading for Clive Palmer’s party in a national Newspoll result is 5%. Two-party preferred status: it’s complicated.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll records both parties down on the primary vote, the Coalition by one to 38% and Labor by two to 37%, making room for the debut appearance of Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party on 5%. The Greens and One Nation are both unchanged, at 9% and 4% respectively. The two-party preferred headline moves a point in favour of the Coalition, from 52-48 to 51-49 – a lot more on that shortly.

Movements on personal ratings are slightly to Bill Shorten’s favour – he is up two on approval to 39% and steady on disapproval at 51%, and his 45-37 deficit on preferred prime minister is an improvement on his 46-35 in the last poll. Scott Morrison is steady on approval at 45% and up two on disapproval to 46%. Respondents were also asked which leader they most trusted to keep their campaign promises, with Morrison very slightly favoured over Shorten by 41% to 38%. The poll was conducted from Friday to Sunday, with Thursday dropped from the usual field work period because of the public holiday, from a larger than usual sample of 2136, the norm being around 1700.

Beyond that, there is a good deal to unpack. This is the first time a result for the United Australia Party has been published, but the tables in The Australian today reveal the party was on 3% in the poll a fortnight ago, and 2% in the poll the week before that. As Peter Brent discusses in Inside Story, pollsters have an important decision to make in deciding whether to include a minor party in the primary question, or saving it for those who choose “other” out of an initial list – a decision that will have a bearing on their result. I assume the publication of the UAP result in the latest poll marks its elevation from the second tier to the first, but the publication of the earlier results may suggest otherwise.

Then there’s the two-party preferred, which raised eyebrows as the primary votes are of a kind that would normally be associated with 52-48. The answer, it turns out, is that a preference split of 60-40 in favour of the Coalition is being applied to the UAP vote. The rationale is explained in an accompanying piece by David Briggs, managing director of YouGov Galaxy, which conducts Newspoll. First, Briggs confirms this is also what it has been doing with One Nation preferences since the start of last year, earlier statements having been less exact. Of the decision to extend this to Palmer:

With the UAP there is no historical trend data we can refer to in order to estimate the likely preference flow to the major parties. We do know, however, that in the 2013 election 53.67 per cent of the Palmer United Party vote was ­directed to Coalition candidates. That was without a preference deal, but in the forthcoming federal election the Liberal Party will swap preferences with the UAP and this can only result in an even higher proportion of UAP votes being directed to the Coalition.

In point of fact though, the Palmer United Party’s approach to preferences in 2013 was to put Labor last in every seat (as best as I can tell — its how-to-vote cards are preserved here). I don’t believe this arose from a deal as such, and it didn’t seem to attract any publicity at that time. However, the fact remains that every Palmer United voter who followed the card ended up in the Coalition’s two-party preferred tally, which is no different from the situation at the election to come.

Briggs also points to the party breakdowns from the aforementioned question on leader most trusted to deliver on campaign promises, which found Morrison to be favoured 53-13 among UAP voters – a significant lead, even accounting for the fact that there would only have been around 100 UAP voters out of the poll sample.

The Newspoll preference split may well be vindicated in time, but for now it’s merely a hypothesis. The dynamics of Palmer’s preferences could actually prove rather complex, if the Western Australian election of 2017 is any guide. The Liberals cut a deal with One Nation in that campaign, and they indeed got a bigger cut of their preferences, from the roughly 50-50 split of the 2016 election (out of the 15 lower house seats the party contested) to 60.6%.

However, this may have had less to do with how-to-vote cards than the backlash One Nation suffered as a result of the deal, which the polls of the time indicated had cost them as much as a third of their existing support – presumably among the kind of voter most likely to preference Labor. Since the Liberals were tainted by the deal as well, nobody doubts that it backfired on them, despite its “success” in delivering a higher share of preferences from a diminished One Nation.

As Labor prepares a rhetorical onslaught against Scott Morrison over the Clive Palmer deal, we may well be about to see a similar dynamic play out federally. However, this too is merely a hypothesis. The bottom line is that extrapolating two-party preferred from primary votes right now unavoidably involves an uncomfortable amount of guess work. For better or worse though, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate will continue to be guided by previous election results in allocating preferences – and, notably, the addition of the Newspoll numbers has made almost no difference to it.

The table below compares the results from Newspoll model with two alternative approaches that might have been taken. The results are imprecise in that they rely on the rounded primary votes published by Newspoll, but it’s nonetheless worth noting that the Newspoll method gives Labor 51.4%, suggesting the headline figure was likely rounded in their favour. The next two columns along, under “Past election: A”, apply UAP preferences using Palmer United’s 53.7-46.3 split from 2013, and One Nation’s using the almost 50-50 split from 2016. The last two columns, “Past election: B”, are how it would go if the UAP was treated as just another component of “others”, and thus given the almost 50-50 split such votes followed in 2016.

Newspoll method Past election: A Past election: B
  L-NP ALP L-NP ALP L-NP ALP
Primary 38 37 38 37 38 37
Greens 1.6 7.4 1.6 7.4 1.6 7.4
UAP 3.0 2.0 2.7 2.3 2.5 2.5
One Nation 2.4 1.6 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
Others 3.6 3.4 3.6 3.4 3.6 3.4
TOTAL 48.6 51.4 47.9 52.1 47.7 52.3

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,496 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

Comments Page 13 of 30
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  1. Scout

    Disabled person just means a person without all the abilities of an able bodied person.

    I would like a new term that puts emphasis on the ability not the disability.

    No one seems to have come up with a better one yet.
    I will be very very happy to use it when that happens.

  2. The Greens can’t even break 10% FP and then some genius decides it will be a good look to go to Clermont. Keep up the good work.

  3. If people were that salty about Shorten, they’ve had ample opportunity to say so in the last 6 years. Not just in terms of opinion polls but at the ballot box but they haven’t (note: approval ratings don’t count – what counts is voting intention.)

    People aren’t warm on the guy and that is a problem but it is not as dramatic as some of his detractors make it out to be.

  4. JP
    says:
    One of the factors that’s likely to give Oakeshott an easy run over the top of Labor here is poor perceptions of Shorten. Albanese, particularly given his role in getting the Pacific Highway upgrades funded, is Labor’s star performer here, and gets rockstar treatment when in town for Politics in the Pub or similar. Shorten would struggle to get a crowd. Even on the left here, he’s respected for steadying Labor’s ship, but not liked.
    __________________________________
    Despite being of the Left, Albo would have taken the regional seats by the bucketload. Even in Queensland he’s respected. People like that he’s so passionate about infrastructure. Everyone loves infra. From right wing nationalists to left wing socialists. Everyone loves it. It’s a national boner.

  6. Don’t gang up on Mundo. He might be a little OTT with his pessimism but at least he’s giving an alternative to the happy clappers who are blinded by their own severe confirmation bias and he’s not being antagonistic to any of you.

  7. The plot thickens – it seems the LPDU has been active…

    “Malcolm Turnbull’s son Alex has been dragged into a fake polling scandal, accusing conservatives of impersonating him in emails to a WA independent candidate.

    The former prime minister’s son has angered conservatives by bankrolling the campaigns of independent candidates. He has also commissioned and bankrolled polling for independents, including former Liberal Julia Banks.

    However, Alex Turnbull is now concerned his name is being used to promote fake polling data.

    The independent candidate for Curtin, Louise Stewart, believed an email she received from “Independents Inc”, claiming to have ReachTEL/UComms polling, was legitimate.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/election-2019/2019/04/29/turnbulls-son-fake-poll-curtin/

  9. Bucephalus,

    Your characterisation applies to a large proportion of Labor voters too, big fella.

    Take care as you dismount that high-horse.

  11. Every time the media tries to make the by-election or any other election about leaders

    e.g Turnbull vs Shorten

    Labor/Shorten retain/ gain seats and the liberal/national party lost seats

    it will be the same during this federal election all it will do is keep the rusted on libs/nats voters, the propaganda about shorten it not going to get the non coalition supporters to change their votes to the libs/nats

  12. Can’t wait to hear who Louise Stewart’s Third party Polling provider is.
    My money is still on Menzies House… pretending to be Alex Turnbull

  14. Guytaur agree on emphasis on ability

    But you can change disabled person to person with a disability

    If you have time read wolfensberger theory of normalisation / social role valorisation…..

    The Greens policy is good, Labor initiated NDIS the Coalition do not know what to do

  15. Louise Stewart has her Godwin Grech moment nice and early. Turnbull Jnr tries to slur the LNP with it. This could have legs.

  16. https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/election-2019/2019/04/29/turnbulls-son-fake-poll-curtin/

    Speaking from Singapore, Mr Turnbull said he now believed the email impersonated him, suggesting he had commissioned the polling to provide to Ms Stewart.

    “First, I got a call from someone in UComms/ReachTel saying, ‘are you faking polls? What’s going on, you’re a customer of ours?’.

    “And I said, I am not faking polls. He’s like, ‘But, isn’t Independents Inc yours?’ And I am like, ‘no it isn’t’.

    “I did not register that domain, I have nothing to do with it. And he’s like ‘shit, it’s Liberal Party astro-turfing then’.

    “He just immediately hung up on me. They are having kittens.”

    Oh dear. Are Wayne and his mates out trying to do their bit?? 🙂

  20. Sceptic

    After the ALP Captain’s Pick Star Candidate was taken out by a self-fired Iron Dome you don’t think the ALP would try and boost Stewart? A lie gets halfway around the world while the truth is still pulling on its’ boots. Nice try but without any evidence your smear is worthless. I admit to having been wrong in the past – I defended Lance Armstrong against doping allegations until the truth was revealed. So, I am prepared to wait for evidence.

  22. sprocket

    “Mr Forrest will host a similar reception for Scott Morrison and the Liberal Party this week.”

    This is business.

  23. Bucephalus says:
    Monday, April 29, 2019 at 1:05 pm
    Rocket Rocket – I laid a bit (nothing big but enough to make it a nice return) at 3.25. Very happy to see how that plays out.

    Not very smart when you could have got $5.50 a couple of weeks ago.

  24. Bucephalus @ #618 Monday, April 29th, 2019 – 1:48 pm

    Sceptic

    After the ALP Captain’s Pick Star Candidate was taken out by a self-fired Iron Dome you don’t think the ALP would try and boost Stewart? A lie gets halfway around the world while the truth is still pulling on its’ boots. Nice try but without any evidence your smear is worthless. I admit to having been wrong in the past – I defended Lance Armstrong against doping allegations until the truth was revealed. So, I am prepared to wait for evidence.

    See Imacca at 1.45pm.

  25. Jesus, it really speaks to how well-off this country is (minus the poor) when the Senate ballots are loaded with parties whose platforms are basically “Stop immigrants from coming here (in particular, the brown ones)”

  26. Seat poll,Sturt..

    Support for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party is expected to keep Christopher Pyne’s former seat of Sturt in Liberal hands.

    The YouGov Galaxy poll prepared for The Advertiser has put Liberal candidate James Stevens ahead of Labor 53-47 per cent on a two-party preferred basis.

    This is partly on the back of a surge in support for the UAP which is attracting about nine per cent of the primary vote compared to six per cent for the Greens.

    The poll of 504 Sturt voters was taken on April 24 and puts primary support for Mr Stevens at 42 per cent and for Labor’s Cressida O’Hanlon at 35 per cent.

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6095455/poll-shows-liberals-may-hold-sturt/?cs=14231&utm_source=website&utm_medium=home&utm_campaign=latestnews

  27. Just been listening to Palmer take a dump on Labor and Shorten.

    Claims Labor have been grooming him for preferences since 2013, via Senator Chisholm.

    Says Bill Shorten is a dishonest liar. The worst. Unfit to be PM. Will gouge $1 trillion (repeat trillion) in taxes out of Working Australians so that he can complete his plan of sending the country bankrupt.

    On and on it went, dutifully replayed in full by News Radio for 15-20 minutes (and I presume ABC TV News channel).

    Then does a runner. No questions.

    Then they put ScoMo on, again in full, with basically the same message – unaffordable promises, pie in the sky policies, lies, lies, lies.

    Daily Telegraph today was full Kill Bill, involving Shoryen’s wife in some scam or other.

    The fix is well and truly in.

  29. Brilliant! I’m coming back as Oscar next time

    Easily the best muppet on Sesame Street. Although the Martians were pretty funny.

  30. Imacca, do
    <blockquote>
    at the start of the quote, and
    </blockquote>
    at the end.
    Do not cut and paste the examples above because the opening angle-brackets are fudged up by some hidden code. Just copy them as you type.

  31. The YouGov Galaxy poll prepared for The Advertiser has put Liberal candidate James Stevens ahead of Labor 53-47 per cent on a two-party preferred basis.

    The poll of 504 Sturt voters was taken on April 24 and puts primary support for Mr Stevens at 42 per cent and for Labor’s Cressida O’Hanlon at 35 per cent.

    If accurate, that’s a 3% swing to Labor on TPP. And a massive 13% on primaries? Because of something something Xenophon candidate?

  32. It shows what a hypocrite and liar palmer is , he attacks Murdoch and yet he does deals with political parties libs/nats who is controlled by Murdoch and his cronies

  34. Palmer confirms what Shorten said.A vote for Morrison is a vote for Palmer and vice versa.Same-same as someone on here regularly says.

  35. While it might give a little bit of encouragement, that Sturt poll would not give me any degree of comfort if I were the Libs. There’s going to be a lot of sweating in that seat by the looks of things.

    Funny thing is it’s not a primary target for Labor*, nor is it a must-win for them. It is, however, a must-win for the Coalition.

    *Note: that doesn’t mean Labor aren’t trying to win it.

  36. With all this retweeting, it won’t be long before the famous and infamous come to the blog and see what we get up to.

  37. Then does a runner. No questions.

    Shouldnt be broadcast unless they answer questions. Just free propaganda. That aint what the political media is there for. Especially in this age of facebook where party propaganda is easy enough to access.

  38. Darn,

    There’s a good reason why I didn’t take 5.5 a few weeks ago but did take 3.25 now. The trend is your friend – especially with fixed price betting.

    I trust all the anti-LNP types here have mortgaged the house and backed the ALP all the way. That’ll be a nice earner.

  39. With all this retweeting, it won’t be long before the famous and infamous come to the blog and see what we get up to.

    Better put on some clean underwear.

  41. Actually Imacca you can cut and paste the start and end blockquote tags from my post above, because I realise WordPress has translated the html code into actual < symbols. It’s just that if I want to do a < that will appear as a < I have to type something else!!!

  44. Bucephalus @ #636 Monday, April 29th, 2019 – 2:03 pm

    Darn,

    There’s a good reason why I didn’t take 5.5 a few weeks ago but did take 3.25 now. The trend is your friend – especially with fixed price betting.

    I trust all the anti-LNP types here have mortgaged the house and backed the ALP all the way. That’ll be a nice earner.

    Betting is for idiots.

  45. @AndrewBGreene
    3h3 hours ago
    Defence insiders genuinely stunned by PM’s announcement today in Perth to bring forward the building of 2 new minesweepers by about a decade. Decommissioning of current Huon class vessels brought forward from the 2030s to the mid-2020s

    Speaking of Chrissie Pyne – is this another Captain’s call? This Govt does love its policy on the run.

  47. If one were to take the Sturt polling seriously – which one shouldn’t… but UAP or not, 42% is a DANGEROUS place for the Lib primary.

  48. Poll news aside, what possible reason could anyone have to vote LNP this time, unless they were irrationally rusted on? You’d have to have rocks in your head. It’s a rolling shitshow and disaster area that need to be put out to pasture for 6-9 years. Led by a shady used car salesman and bereft of any front bench talent, who all resigned in despair.

    LNP supporters should stop deluding themselves. Labor to cruise home easily on May 18.

  50. Be interesting to watch the odious Palmer saga play out.
    For Rupert the issue with be Bill’s lying about the ALP ever seeking to do a deal on preferences.
    Clearly they did.
    What I can’t fathom, is why not simply admit it. It’s not a crime to talk to Palmer or any other potential politician in our system of preferential voting.
    Instead of lasting 24 hours on a non issue, it will drift on and the issue will be Shortens character. An own goal.

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