Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

The debut reading for Clive Palmer’s party in a national Newspoll result is 5%. Two-party preferred status: it’s complicated.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll records both parties down on the primary vote, the Coalition by one to 38% and Labor by two to 37%, making room for the debut appearance of Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party on 5%. The Greens and One Nation are both unchanged, at 9% and 4% respectively. The two-party preferred headline moves a point in favour of the Coalition, from 52-48 to 51-49 – a lot more on that shortly.

Movements on personal ratings are slightly to Bill Shorten’s favour – he is up two on approval to 39% and steady on disapproval at 51%, and his 45-37 deficit on preferred prime minister is an improvement on his 46-35 in the last poll. Scott Morrison is steady on approval at 45% and up two on disapproval to 46%. Respondents were also asked which leader they most trusted to keep their campaign promises, with Morrison very slightly favoured over Shorten by 41% to 38%. The poll was conducted from Friday to Sunday, with Thursday dropped from the usual field work period because of the public holiday, from a larger than usual sample of 2136, the norm being around 1700.

Beyond that, there is a good deal to unpack. This is the first time a result for the United Australia Party has been published, but the tables in The Australian today reveal the party was on 3% in the poll a fortnight ago, and 2% in the poll the week before that. As Peter Brent discusses in Inside Story, pollsters have an important decision to make in deciding whether to include a minor party in the primary question, or saving it for those who choose “other” out of an initial list – a decision that will have a bearing on their result. I assume the publication of the UAP result in the latest poll marks its elevation from the second tier to the first, but the publication of the earlier results may suggest otherwise.

Then there’s the two-party preferred, which raised eyebrows as the primary votes are of a kind that would normally be associated with 52-48. The answer, it turns out, is that a preference split of 60-40 in favour of the Coalition is being applied to the UAP vote. The rationale is explained in an accompanying piece by David Briggs, managing director of YouGov Galaxy, which conducts Newspoll. First, Briggs confirms this is also what it has been doing with One Nation preferences since the start of last year, earlier statements having been less exact. Of the decision to extend this to Palmer:

With the UAP there is no historical trend data we can refer to in order to estimate the likely preference flow to the major parties. We do know, however, that in the 2013 election 53.67 per cent of the Palmer United Party vote was ­directed to Coalition candidates. That was without a preference deal, but in the forthcoming federal election the Liberal Party will swap preferences with the UAP and this can only result in an even higher proportion of UAP votes being directed to the Coalition.

In point of fact though, the Palmer United Party’s approach to preferences in 2013 was to put Labor last in every seat (as best as I can tell — its how-to-vote cards are preserved here). I don’t believe this arose from a deal as such, and it didn’t seem to attract any publicity at that time. However, the fact remains that every Palmer United voter who followed the card ended up in the Coalition’s two-party preferred tally, which is no different from the situation at the election to come.

Briggs also points to the party breakdowns from the aforementioned question on leader most trusted to deliver on campaign promises, which found Morrison to be favoured 53-13 among UAP voters – a significant lead, even accounting for the fact that there would only have been around 100 UAP voters out of the poll sample.

The Newspoll preference split may well be vindicated in time, but for now it’s merely a hypothesis. The dynamics of Palmer’s preferences could actually prove rather complex, if the Western Australian election of 2017 is any guide. The Liberals cut a deal with One Nation in that campaign, and they indeed got a bigger cut of their preferences, from the roughly 50-50 split of the 2016 election (out of the 15 lower house seats the party contested) to 60.6%.

However, this may have had less to do with how-to-vote cards than the backlash One Nation suffered as a result of the deal, which the polls of the time indicated had cost them as much as a third of their existing support – presumably among the kind of voter most likely to preference Labor. Since the Liberals were tainted by the deal as well, nobody doubts that it backfired on them, despite its “success” in delivering a higher share of preferences from a diminished One Nation.

As Labor prepares a rhetorical onslaught against Scott Morrison over the Clive Palmer deal, we may well be about to see a similar dynamic play out federally. However, this too is merely a hypothesis. The bottom line is that extrapolating two-party preferred from primary votes right now unavoidably involves an uncomfortable amount of guess work. For better or worse though, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate will continue to be guided by previous election results in allocating preferences – and, notably, the addition of the Newspoll numbers has made almost no difference to it.

The table below compares the results from Newspoll model with two alternative approaches that might have been taken. The results are imprecise in that they rely on the rounded primary votes published by Newspoll, but it’s nonetheless worth noting that the Newspoll method gives Labor 51.4%, suggesting the headline figure was likely rounded in their favour. The next two columns along, under “Past election: A”, apply UAP preferences using Palmer United’s 53.7-46.3 split from 2013, and One Nation’s using the almost 50-50 split from 2016. The last two columns, “Past election: B”, are how it would go if the UAP was treated as just another component of “others”, and thus given the almost 50-50 split such votes followed in 2016.

Newspoll method Past election: A Past election: B
  L-NP ALP L-NP ALP L-NP ALP
Primary 38 37 38 37 38 37
Greens 1.6 7.4 1.6 7.4 1.6 7.4
UAP 3.0 2.0 2.7 2.3 2.5 2.5
One Nation 2.4 1.6 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
Others 3.6 3.4 3.6 3.4 3.6 3.4
TOTAL 48.6 51.4 47.9 52.1 47.7 52.3

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,496 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. antonbruckner11 says:
    Monday, April 29, 2019 at 2:08 pm
    Bucephalus @ #636 Monday, April 29th, 2019 – 2:03 pm

    Darn,

    There’s a good reason why I didn’t take 5.5 a few weeks ago but did take 3.25 now. The trend is your friend – especially with fixed price betting.

    I trust all the anti-LNP types here have mortgaged the house and backed the ALP all the way. That’ll be a nice earner.

    Betting is for idiots.

    Only the ones who don’t do it properly – and that’s most of them.

  2. ‘The fix is well and truly in.’

    Labor should have had a dedicated strategy to deal with this shite. It’s not like no one saw it coming.

    I wish someone from the ALP would either get really angry or get some really good lines together ridiculing Scrotty everytime.
    Like another poster years ago said, Labor is the 90 pound weakling on the beach and the LNP the muscle bound boofhead casually kicking sand in Labor’s face…..

  3. anton – you must be fun to be with on the first Tuesday of November every year.

    Cruel sport. I have moved on from it.

    I notice the Oakbank races this year drew very small crowds. Steeplechase, thankfully, is nearly done.

  4. Thanks. I do not understand the last paragraph where you say the Coalition is on 51.4%. That should be Labor surely, and the difference 51.4 to 48.6 2PP rounded in favour of the Coalition?

  5. GG

    Apparently KK knows nothing about politics according to her answers to questions. Sky must want some money back and it probably explains her inability to win her last two elections.

  6. Boucephalos (there, made it more Greek than Latin for you), betting is particularly for idiots on Melbourne Cup day. I believe professional punters avoid the Cup, on the basis that it’s the only race in the whole year where you know that every jockey wants their horse to win and is not under instructions from the “connections” to hold it back.

  7. Perhaps the ALP’ers here can tell me why wasn’t the ALP dental policy released at the same time as the cancer announcement. ?
    It would of been better for them imho to say wtte…..” we are not giving rich people a tax break instead we’re giving Australia a better and affordable health system ………a better childcare system and a better education system…….Australian citizens deserve the best and we will facilitate that happening”……….

  8. “He also wanted to know: “From your observation, Senator Keneally … would you agree with the proposition that Sarah Hanson Young and her party are on the Left side of politics?”

    Senator Keneally replied: “I’m not an expert in Australian Greens policies.”

    Heh!

  9. Bucephalus @ #655 Monday, April 29th, 2019 – 2:29 pm

    GG

    Apparently KK knows nothing about politics according to her answers to questions. Sky must want some money back and it probably explains her inability to win her last two elections.

    That’s not what she said if you can be bothered to read the piece rather than froth off your inanities.

  10. Jack,

    There’s a significant difference between those who expect to win but aren’t professionals and those who don’t expect to win and it’s a just a bit of fun.

  11. mundo
    I share your pain. So scared that I won’t join in guesstimating Newspoll or Esssential in case I jinx it . lol

    William’s Bludger Track is my only solace and let’s hope it stays right where it is altho it seems every media outlet, apart from The Guardian, is ganging up on Bill. Surely he doesn’t deserve all of it.

    Palmer is so creepy but, if elected, he’ll soon get bored if he doesn’t get his own way and won’t bother turning up again. We need more Tim Storer types on the Senate X benches so fingers crossed for a Labor win and sensible Senators.

    Meanwhile hurry up 18th May.

  12. Al Pal @ #648 Monday, April 29th, 2019 – 2:14 pm

    Be interesting to watch the odious Palmer saga play out.
    For Rupert the issue with be Bill’s lying about the ALP ever seeking to do a deal on preferences.
    Clearly they did.
    What I can’t fathom, is why not simply admit it. It’s not a crime to talk to Palmer or any other potential politician in our system of preferential voting.
    Instead of lasting 24 hours on a non issue, it will drift on and the issue will be Shortens character. An own goal.

    Plibersek gave it away on Insiders – they were fishing to see if the Libs were talking to Palmer. Unless I’ve missed something, a couple of texts is not a negotiation.

  13. The Trump analogies continue. Trump’s MAGA hats were made in China.

    Chris UhlmannVerified account @CUhlmann
    3h3 hours ago

    Think Clive Palmer wants to Make Australia Great? Read the fine print on his corflutes… made in China. The bloviating billionaire can’t even give printing jobs to Australians. @9NewsAUS @auspol

  14. Why would Labor want Palmers preferences when he still not paying his workers?Should be on principle.The same as Hanson over gun laws. If the punters want a Trump government then on their heads be it.

  15. “Labor should have had a dedicated strategy to deal with this shite. It’s not like no one saw it coming.”

    They do Mundo. Over the next three weeks labor will systematically turn Clive from being ScoMo’s life vest into ScoMo sinking anchor.

    Just like Labor did in WA with cormann’s ON preference deal at the state election.

    Claims that Labor was prepared to have backroom preliminary negotiations with Palmer are just piss and wind to deflect the truth. ScoMo deliberately and wilfully jumped into bed with a wage thief and multi million dollar tax pure rip off artist.

    People will focus on that and the more Palmer-ScoMo stunts will
    Be increasingly telling. This little political bubble won’t last the week. Let alone the whole campaign.

  16. The Warrnambool Racing Carnival starts tomorrow. Regarded as one of the best on the calendar. There’ll be plenty of good quality flat and hurdle races throughout.

    My best for the Carnival is on Thursday in the Grand Annual steeplechase Race 7, No 6. Slow Poke Rodriguez. Should win at around $4. in Good Form and trained by Paddy Payne.

    #racingonPB

  17. Something else to think about between now & the election:
    “Since 1979, do you know how many times China has been at war with anybody?” Carter asked. “None, and we have stayed at war.”
    Carter then said the US has been at peace for only 16 of its 242 years as a nation.
    How come they let those 16 years slip by?
    http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/51498.htm

  18. Anthony Chisholm has responded to Clive Palmer’s allegations. From his statement:

    Most Australians know that Clive Palmer is chaotic and dishonest, and his recent press statement was another example of that.

    In regards to the 2019 Federal election, I attempted to do due diligence on what the Palmer Party’s intentions were, as I have done in previous elections.

    In recent weeks I had two very brief phone conversations in an attempt to discover what role Mr Palmer would play in the Federal election.

    At no stage did I negotiate or offer Mr Palmer anything in regard to preferences.

    I was not authorised to offer anything and I didn’t.

    Bill Shorten has made it clear that no arrangements with Mr Palmer could be entertained while Queensland Nickel workers remained out of pocket, and I agree with Mr Shorten’s principled position.

    There is only one Party that has a deal in place with Mr Palmer and it is the Liberal National Party.

    That deal could see Mr Palmer, and his shambolic team, elected to the Senate and control the balance of power.

    Mr Morrison needs to explain how the chaos and dysfunction Mr Palmer would bring to the Senate is a good outcome for the Australian people.

    It’s clear that a vote for the LNP is a vote for Clive Palmer, and vice versa.

    Scott Morrison will bring the cuts, and Clive Palmer will bring the chaos.

  19. Oh dear I think ABC Perth radio news was telling me porkies when they said Labor’s lead had slumped in the past month from 54 to 51 on Newspoll.

  20. I may live in a different universe but I do not see too much of a drama with Palmer mouthing off at Shorten.

    Shorten and labor just have to rinse and repeat wtte labor will do no deals with a man who refuses to pay his workers. Nice and simple. Give no ground.

    Remember the rant Palmer went on this morning on TV ?

    That will not be a isolated event as the next three weeks unfold. Palmer and or his candidates will not disappoint.

    I see the presser today by Palmer as a opportunity for labor. But perhaps I am delirious ?

    Just my take.

  21. Mind you, when the ABC’s Jade Macmillan writes this and calls it “analysis” you know you’re in trouble.

    “There might, quite rightly, be a strong focus on policy but the power of pictures cannot be underestimated.

    Murmurings among the travelling press pack that Mr Shorten’s campaign appears to lack the dynamism of the Prime Minister’s have only grown louder during the last week.

    Scott Morrison is constantly captured “doing things” — playing sport, picking carrots, going on a ride at the Royal Easter Show and even shearing a sheep.”

  22. Kate @ #672 Monday, April 29th, 2019 – 2:51 pm

    Mind you, when the ABC’s Jade Macmillan writes this and calls it “analysis” you know you’re in trouble.

    “There might, quite rightly, be a strong focus on policy but the power of pictures cannot be underestimated.

    Murmurings among the travelling press pack that Mr Shorten’s campaign appears to lack the dynamism of the Prime Minister’s have only grown louder during the last week.

    Scott Morrison is constantly captured “doing things” — playing sport, picking carrots, going on a ride at the Royal Easter Show and even shearing a sheep.”

    I suppose it depends whether you want to elect an adult as PM or a clown.

  23. Doing “due diligence” on what Palmer’s intentions were – but it was nothing to do with a preference deal. Apparently.

    If you believe that then I have a land deal in West Fremantle for you. Uninterrupted Ocean views.

  24. Scott Morrison did not shear a sheep – he looks like he is just posing for a pic. The shearing of that sheep is way too neat for a rank amateur to have done it. Find a journo who was there.

  25. GG, I am sure you will be hoping, like me, that the ‘Carnival’ will be death free for the first time in a while.

  26. The insertion of Palmer’s UAP for the next three weeks, and guesses about preference distribution, is really going to make poling difficult to interpret. It will also, I suspect, make single seat poling, which already struggles, even messier. I get a sense, for example, that single seat poling may be overstating UAP, given their national vote of around 4-5 percent. My best guess is that Labor are still on track to win comfortably, in spite of the media throwing absolutely everything they’ve got in to campaigning for the Liberals and their vested interests.

    On another note, where can I find numbers on Greens preference flows to the ALP across the last few elections?

  27. Interesting article by former Rudd and Gillard adviser Sean Kelly, who is clearly a bit concerned about how things are going:

    https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/if-bill-shorten-loses-the-election-three-things-will-follow-20190427-p51hse.html

    “If Shorten loses, three things will follow, each with significant implications for Australian politics. First, he and John Hewson together will have forever killed off detailed opposition platforms, at least those involving tax.”

    It was my impression that, until recently, everyone believed that Hewson had killed it back in 1993. The interesting question is why Labor has brought the strategy back, with the extra frisson of openly telling the million plus people who are going to be adversely affected by their policies that they should consider voting for the Coalition.

    “Second, the identity Labor has spent the past six years creating for itself (or perhaps returning to) will be up for grabs.”

    There isn’t all that much wrong with Labor’s current identity. They have done well to build up an image of stability, continued trustworthiness on issues such as health and education, and an interest in giving a fair go to everyone. I don’t consider that their package of rather aggressive tax policies is intrinsic to the construction of that identity: more of a blemish really.

    “Third, the result will be seen as a rejection not just of Labor, but of Labor’s judgment that Australia has reached a certain place politically. The idea that Australians have become permanently more progressive will die.”

    I meet a number of people who fervently believe that Australians have become more progressive. I really have no idea how they can reach such a conclusion. Sometimes they argue that it is a global trend, pointing to alleged instances such as Bernie Sanders, Jeremy Corbyn and AOC: none of whom are currently in leadership positions in the countries in which they live. Or they point to the SSM survey outcome: which certainly indicates that Australians are far more tolerant on that particular issue than many on both the right and left believed before the survey was held.

    The concept of “Australians” is a very fluid one which must encompass not only the Australian-born millenials coming out of our universities but also over a million arrivals from Asia and Africa over the past decade or so: the rapidly-growing element in our population which made a particularly strong contribution to the No vote in the SSM survey. The East and South Asia-born members of this population are far less inclined than Australian-born people to support wealth redistribution through the taxation and social security systems.

    If Labor ends up losing the election, I don’t think it will be a question of having misunderstood the Australian electorate’s values. I think it will be more a case of their having failed to follow the tried and true template of how oppositions go about winning elections in this and many other countries, which is by convincing a majority of voters that (a) they’ll be better at running the place than the government and (b) as a consequence, you’ll all be better off.

    Labor might very well still end up winning: I share the scepticism of others about the apparent trend in last night’s Newspoll. But it looks to me as if Shorten is experiencing increasing discomfort with having to sell the message of “lots of you are going to have to pay more tax so that we can redistribute it to people who are better off.” When he spoke to the bloke on $250k per annum who was complaining about him and his mates not getting a tax cut, he was clearly itching to make a comment along the lines of “you and everyone else will be better off under a Labor Government.” But he knew that Labor will actually be expecting this bloke to cop an extra tax hike not only on his salary but on his super as well.

    Labor went into this election with what they knew (or certainly should have known) was a high risk strategy. So, if the voters end up rejecting it, Sean Kelly and others shouldn’t complain about their attitude.

  28. Of course Labor would’ve considered a preference deal if they it had been possible and they thought it advantageous. But the LNP actually made it and will have weighed the consequences.

    They are hoping Clive will be their saviour. We shall see. But the consequence of their deal is that Clive Palmer might have the final say on what becomes law in this country.

  29. Scott Morrison is constantly captured “doing things” — playing sport, picking carrots, going on a ride at the Royal Easter Show and even shearing a sheep.”

    Are any of those things a Prime Minister should be doing, in their professional capacity? I thought it was athletes play sports, farmers pick carrots, revelers go on rides, sheep-shearers shear sheep, and Prime Ministers govern. If Morrison wants to play jobs-merry-go-round he should resign as PM first.

  30. We had just voted in the Reid electorate when a woman in a blue T-shirt harangued my OH about franking tax credits after she learnt he was retired . She chose the wrong person.
    Fiona Martin ,Craig Laundy’s replacement , walked towards me with her hand out , leaving me no room to decline without being rude.
    My ‘straw’ observation here is that the Libs are on edge, much more so than Labor.

  31. Labor is warning that the most right wing government in history will be elected if Morrison is returned.I cant believe the ordinary Australian would vote for that.

  32. Matt31 @ #686 Monday, April 29th, 2019 – 2:56 pm

    The insertion of Palmer’s UAP for the next three weeks, and guesses about preference distribution, is really going to make poling difficult to interpret. It will also, I suspect, make single seat poling, which already struggles, even messier. I get a sense, for example, that single seat poling may be overstating UAP, given their national vote of around 4-5 percent. My best guess is that Labor are still on track to win comfortably, in spite of the media throwing absolutely everything they’ve got in to campaigning for the Liberals and their vested interests.

    On another note, where can I find numbers on Greens preference flows to the ALP across the last few elections?

    I think Anthony Green has posted the numbers on his blog.

  33. mb

    Mr Kelly appears to have forgotten that Howard fought and won an election on the GST which involved significant and detailed changes to Income Tax, Welfare entitlements, Sales Taxes and other State taxes and levies and the introduction of the GST.

  34. Oh dear… Menzies House cover is blown on Curtin Black Opps

    Alex Turnbull..
    Mr Turnbull said he had sent an email to the address on the polling information before it was shut down. The network communication tool indicated it was “very close” to an MP’s office.

    The New Daily has chosen not to name the MP.

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