BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor

Not much doing in the one published poll to emerge since the start of the election campaign, reflected in a stable reading from the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

Despite the onset of the election campaign, there is only one new data point to add to BludgerTrack this week, which is a status quo 52-48 result from Newspoll that has duly little effect on the national vote trends. Such movement as there is is away from One Nation and towards the Coalition on the primary vote, with next to no impact on two-party preferred or the seat projection, where the Coalition makes a single gain in Victoria.

Since there is no new state-level data this week, the breakdowns continue to record an unnatural looking lurch to the Coalition in New South Wales, which I would want to see corroborated by more data. The leadership trends are interesting in that an upswing in Scott Morrison’s net approval has returned him, just barely, to net positive territory. The effect on preferred prime minister is more modest, but there appears to be a slight trend in his favour there too.

However, the biggest news in BludgerTrack this week as far as I’m concerned is that a helpful reader has told me how to fix the bug that was preventing the state breakdown tabs from working much of the time. If this was causing you grief before, there is a very good chance it will not be doing so if you try again now, which you can do through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,586 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.5-47.5 to Labor”

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  1. LR and RHW
    One of the reasons I love imagery of a schooner riding the waves (particularly if there is a bit of R Strauss music to go with it) is that it represents in my mind a very satisfying combination of art, artifice, and science.
    Can we really separate them?
    Is synthesis not the highest form of human activity?
    There fore schooners = Truth?

  2. Firefox says:
    Friday, April 19, 2019 at 1:58 pm
    I do not have a negative view of Canberra due to the actions of the government. I have a negative view of Canberra because I have spent some time there.

  3. phoenixRed:

    The only value he has is a boon to Labor by destabilising in his partyroom creating the appearance of ongoing dysfunction in the coalition.

  4. imacca

    Labor could have chosen to do what the Democrats are doing with Trump on Asylum Seekers.

    Labor could have chosen to only blame the LNP for climate policy failure.

    Pick one. Then there would be consistency to the argument.

    FWIW I think Labor lost on both because Labor has looked weak on both issues. That’s my consistent view.

  5. “Firefox says:
    Friday, April 19, 2019 at 1:58 pm
    I do not have a negative view of Canberra due to the actions of the government. I have a negative view of Canberra because I have spent some time there.”

    As someone who grew up in the mighty Nation’s Capital, I’ve spent plenty of time there too. The only valid criticism of the city is that it is indeed bloody cold in winter. But when you live there you get used to that. They breed em tough down there I tell ya! 😛

  6. “Unfortunately Abbott keeps firming in the betting so alas we may be stuck with him. “

    It’s just Tony betting on himself.. like a company buying its own shares before going broke

  7. As a Canberran (Sydney transplant) who has grown to love this city, particularly as it has grown and developed over the last decade, seeing “Canberra” as shorthand for this garbage government is tiring.

  8. Cheryl Kernot
    ‏@cheryl_kernot

    Replying to @CroweDM
    I’ve been following daily pressers & recording questions asked by journos.Genesis of this frenzy of angst over costings looked orchestrated to me. Will summarise at end of campaign.

  9. Firefox says:
    Friday, April 19, 2019 at 3:29 pm
    I grew up in the south west of WA. We had a few cool winter days down there to. I dislike Canberra because it has all the characteristics of a company town.

  10. Firefox says:
    Friday, April 19, 2019 at 1:58 pm

    As for the coming election, changing the government is not the only thing that matters. We need to make sure that the next government, regardless of who forms it, is held to account and prevented from lurching to the right as is so often the case. Having a strong Greens presence in the parliament is the only way to ensure that happens.

    On the contrary, the stronger the G/Libling presence in the Parliament, the more likely it is the Parliament will “lurch” to the Right. The Lib-kin have an entirely counter-productive and self-defeating influence on policy. They are the enemies of progress. The harder they try the worse it gets.

  11. BW

    The paradox is that the whole is the greater but not without the parts. Joy and fulfilment. That’s a truth I can grok.

  12. Well, well, someone is a bit of a naltitjara!

    We got all sorts at Uluru. Some would pinch parts of Uluru – very often returning them by mail after they broke their leg or something like that. Some would go off the legal trails. Some would pluck vegetation. (When you get several hundred thousand individuals each breaking off a fly switch, the slow growing desert veg surrounding Uluru can’t cope.) Some would ignore closing hours. Some would sneak in to sleep in the caves. Some would conduct religious stuff. Some would go into sacred sites. Some would take illegal images. All of this involved trampling Indigenous sensibilities in various ways.

    The first action of the Wardens was always to explain the rules and the reasons for the rules. 99% of the time this resulted in reasonable people apologizing and changing their behaviour. While some people are careless, most people are entirely reasonable when reasonable stuff is explained to them reasonably.

    Of course we used to get the uglies from time to time. The ones who doubled down. The ones who were angry at the traditional owners actually owning Uluru and setting the rules for access and use. Some of these were right into the white fella wars, of course.

    When moral suasion failed, and the uglies persisted in their ugliness, evicting arrogant and racist arseholes from the Park was a pleasant combination of business with pleasure.

  13. ‘Late Riser says:
    Friday, April 19, 2019 at 3:42 pm

    BW

    The paradox is that the whole is the greater but not without the parts. Joy and fulfilment. That’s a truth I can grok.’

    ah ha. What a pleasure!

  14. Humans are essentially selfish. I can’t see how there is time for genuine action to “save the planet”.

    People pouring concrete into sewers has led to a “concreteberg” forming in central London that weighs 105 tonnes, as heavy as a blue whale.

    The 100-metre-long mass is blocking three Victorian-era sewers in the heart of the capital. Thames Water’s operations manager, Alex Saunders, said it was the largest mass of concrete the company had seen, and could take two months to remove at a cost of at least several hundred thousand pounds.

    The work to tear it apart will take place at the junction of Goswell Road and Hall Street in Islington and is likely to cause traffic disruption.

    Saunders said: “Normally blockages are caused by fat, oil and wet wipes building up in the sewer but unfortunately in this case it’s rock-hard concrete. It’s in there and set to the Victorian brickwork, so we need to chip away at it to get it removed.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/apr/18/concreteberg-weighing-105-tonnes-blocks-london-sewer-concrete-drain

    Edit
    The concreteberg is believed to have been caused by a construction company pouring surplus cement down a drain.

  15. Late Riser says:
    Friday, April 19, 2019 at 3:16 pm

    rhwombat, Put that way I would be comfortable placing science within the realm of art, in the sense that science is a product of human minds. But an ever widening definition loses meaning. Art simply becomes thought. Art (to me) speaks to my sense of self, my worth and my purpose, and I see science as a powerful tool, rather than something that exists independently of us.

    Sure there is some level of creativity in the science, coming up with an original question to explore, deciding how you use the tools available or inventing new ones to investigate it.

    As for science not being independent, that to me goes against one of the core principles of science.

    If I set up an experiment, then my results need to be able to be duplicated by others performing the same experiment independent of my direct input. 🙂

  16. Nicholas: “The federal governments sets the Medicare rebates. Doctors get 80 percent of their income from the federal government. The notion of doctors as independent private practitioners is a myth. They are public sector workers in substance.”

    80% is not 100%, and the 20% provides physicians with discretion which often they exercise wisely, Some examples:

    1 – GPs in high-SES areas and in CBDs will often charge somewhat above the bulk-bill rate, mostly to cover the higher running costs. They will also almost always charge their cancer patients at the bulk bill rate (based on the idea that patients with cancer have enough problems…). This has a number of potentially beneficial effects:
    a – subsidy at the coal face from well patients (charged above bulk bill) to genuinely ill (cancer and other serious conditions). Coal face subsidies are less susceptible to undermining than centrally mandated subsidies
    b – subsidy from well and wealthy patients (the worried rich) to the health system as a whole
    c – promotion of a GP role (“shared care”?) in serious diseases, for example GPs can assist their patients in dealings with specialists, particularly the technically brilliant but arrogant ones and the serial non-communicators

    2 – Private medical oncologists and other specialists who deal exclusively with serious diseases can and should charge slightly above the Medicare rate. This is beneficial as it raises the compensation of such specialists so that it keeps pace (to some extent) with that of their colleagues who have the ability to charge high fees for non-essential services (e.g. plastics surgeons undertaking cosmetic procedures). The alternative would be to create bias in favour of disciplines with a non-essential component and in particular against medical oncology and similar. The interest of the public health system in removing such bias is obvious.

    Moreover, whilst there are a few surgeons driving Maseratis (and the occasional Sydney neurosurgeon engaging in a $10,000 drug fuelled orgy), most physicians are pretty humble and grounded (this is less the case in the US, where lifetime compensation for physicians of all types is quite a bit higher) . More so than any other profession, they can probably be left to it.

  17. A report on the state of New Zealand’s environment has painted a bleak picture of catastrophic biodiversity loss, polluted waterways and the destructive rise of the dairy industry and urban sprawl.

    Environment Aotearoa is the first major environmental report in four years, and was compiled using data from Statistics New Zealand and the environment ministry.

    It presents a sobering summary of a country that is starkly different from the pristine landscape promoted in the “Pure New Zealand” marketing campaign that lures millions of tourists every year.

    It found New Zealand is now considered one of the most invaded countries in the world, with 75 animal and plant species having gone extinct since human settlement. The once-vibrant bird life has fared particularly badly, with 90% of seabirds and 80% of shorebirds threatened with or at risk of extinction.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/apr/18/decades-of-denial-major-report-finds-new-zealands-environment-is-in-serious-trouble

  18. EGT
    Yep.
    Our family doctor charges us more than the bulk bill rate. He bulk bills uni students, pensioners and so and and so forth.
    I have discussed this differential charging with him and have told him that I fully support his approach. We might be communists. I don’t know.
    Anyway, he is good value for money because he is a cracker of a diagnostician.

  19. We live in Canberra and we tell everyone we meet that it is an awful place to live and could they please stop voting in any more mad, sad or bad bastards.

  20. In the absence of credible polling, punters rely on vibe and gut feel, mostly depending on a narrative set by media.

    Considering last opinion poll was 52.5-47.5 (53-47 by last election preferences), I think Labor is well set.

    We had the same thing last election. Despite tight polls, we were told Libs will win comfortably. I will change my tune if there is other credible polling. Till then I’m quite optimistic about Labor’s chances. Most of the negative media coverage is already priced in IMO. If anything, it is even less important than in 2016 where Murdoch was pushing pro-Lib propoganda.

  21. “Firefox says:
    Friday, April 19, 2019 at 3:29 pm
    I grew up in the south west of WA. We had a few cool winter days down there to. I dislike Canberra because it has all the characteristics of a company town.”

    It never seemed as cold to me back then as it does now when I go back to visit. I do live 30 minutes south of the Gold Coast in NE NSW now though so my body is used to a much warmer climate. Winter almost doesn’t exist here. Went back to Canberra in the middle of winter in 2017 and it was -8 one night, which is fricking cold even for Canberra. You expect -3 or -4 but -8 is just crazy. That was a shock to the system let me tell you lol.

    Canberra is a wonderful city. It’s extremely well planned and has been from the very beginning and continues to be so. The current third-term Greens/Labor government (is that the record for length of time the Greens have been in minority government anywhere?) is a perfect example of what a good left wing progressive government looks like. The ACT Greens and ACT Labor work exceptionally well together. Despite the fact that Canberra continues to grow rapidly, it maintains it’s unique “bush capital” feel and look. It’s got everything you could ever want in a city as well as many national icons and institutions.

  22. Huge storms here, lightning, thunder and rain. Current temp is 6.5 degrees with a real feel of -0.3! Yesterday we had a balmy 23 and were running around in t-shirts.

    #weatheronPB

  23. A few good pieces on the Mueller report and other tidbits for your consumption over the long weekend if you are so inclined. Take care bludgers.

    Mueller report: the key takeaways from the Trump-Russia investigation

    Trump campaign was ‘receptive’ to help from the Russians
    Although Mueller did not find evidence amounting to a criminal conspiracy between the Trump campaign and Moscow, the report makes clear that the Russian government interfered in the 2016 presidential election “in a sweeping and systematic fashion”.

    It also notes that Russia was keen for Trump to win the 2016 election, beating Hillary Clinton. “The investigation established that the Russian government perceived it would benefit from a Trump presidency and worked to secure that outcome.”

    Investigators found multiple ties between the Trump campaign and the Russians, which were described as follows:

    The Russian contacts consisted of business connections, offers of assistance to the Campaign, invitations for candidate Trump and Putin to meet in person, invitations for Campaign officials and representatives of the Russian government to meet, and policy positions seeking improved U.S.-Russian relations.

    Although Mueller did not prove that the contacts resulted in collusion, the report states that the Trump campaign “expected it would benefit electorally from information stolen and released through Russian efforts”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2019/apr/18/mueller-report-trump-russia-key-takeaways

    Mueller referred evidence of 14 other potential crimes to federal officials. Only two of them are publicly known

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/18/mueller-evidence-14-potential-crimes-only-two-publicly-known.html

    Seth Abramson
    @SethAbramson

    142/ The Kremlin-backed Internet Research Agency’s 100% pro-Trump propaganda campaign reached “tens of millions” of American voters, per the Mueller Report. Remember: this was an election decided in Trump’s favor by… 77,000 votes.

    Seth Abramson
    @SethAbramson

    122/ …Trump was involved—or Russia was involved—in the RNC platform change, even though Gordon said the former and Kilimnik said the latter. But see the difference: Mueller isn’t excluding the possibility Trump and/or Russia orchestrated the change—he couldn’t *prove* it fully.

    Jim Scuitto
    @jimscuitto

    Notable: Though Mueller did not establish a conspiracy between Trump campaign & Russia, he did find Trump campaign “expected it would benefit electorally” from Russian interference AND “showed interest” in the stolen documents releases. This, as the Russian attack was underway.

    Ale
    @aliasvaughn

    Read the below. This is the essence of Mueller’s problem: they DID find criminal conduct, but you CANNOT prosecute a case like this without incontrovertible evidence. Ppl involved deleted evidence in multiple cases. That doesn’t mean “no crime” it means “they hid it successfully”

    14 Must-Read Moments From the Mueller Report

    https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/04/mueller-report-release-barr-trump/587176/

    http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/04/mueller-report-russia-scandal-trump-putin-collusion-obstruction.html

    Ned Price
    @nedprice

    Candidate Trump had foreknowledge of @wikileaks releases. (

    Mueller report says WikiLeaks pushed Seth Rich conspiracies

    https://thehill.com/policy/national-security/439652-mueller-report-squashes-seth-rich-conspiracy-theory?rnd=1555630360

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/mueller-exposes-erik-princes-lies-about-his-seychelles-rendezvous-with-top-russian-kirill-dmitriev

    Sarah Sanders admitted to Mueller that she just made up her claim her that “the White House had heard from “countless” FBI agents who had lost confidence in Comey.”

    Sanders told the press after Comey’s termination that the White House had heard from “countless” FBI agents who had lost confidence in Comey. But the evidence does not support those claims. The President told Comey at their January 27 dinner that “the people of the FBI really like [him],” no evidence suggests that the President heard otherwise before deciding to terminate Comey, and Sanders acknowledged to investigators that her comments were not founded on anything.

    http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/04/sarah-sanders-told-mueller-she-lied-to-media-about-comey.html

    Jake Tapper
    @jaketapper

    CNN: Mueller report includes 946 unique redactions and 1,657.5 redacted lines.

    Just over 36 pages worth — or 12.43% — of the 448-page report is redacted.

    The bulk of the redactions referred to ongoing investigations.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/gop-sen-richard-burr-apparently-briefed-white-house-fbi-s-n996156?cid=sm_npd_nn_tw_np

    Brian Beutler
    @brianbeutler

    Trump, Jr. et al BARELY avoided indictment for violating campaign finance law by soliciting dirt on Clinton. Mueller determined they likely couldn’t prove willfulness and that the value of the solicited information exceeded the legal threshold beyond a reasonable doubt.

    So much more obviously! Rainy and blinking cold in Perth today! But I’m enjoying it.

  24. Barney,

    Sure there is some level of creativity in the science, coming up with an original question to explore, deciding how you use the tools available or inventing new ones to investigate it.

    As for science not being independent, that to me goes against one of the core principles of science.

    If I set up an experiment, then my results need to be able to be duplicated by others performing the same experiment independent of my direct input.

    I would argue that creativity is the very soul of science. New ideas have to come from somewhere. Science works as it does because we force ourselves to ask the universe the same questions we ask ourselves. And we don’t accept the first or even second answer that it gives us. Science is anchored in the universe, but it is a product of our imagination.

    So for me science is dependent on human interpretation of experimental results. If you like, the universe keeps us honest. (That was a value judgement. 😊) If I may, you said it yourself about asking original questions. Questions frame the answer. The frame is human.

  25. Gorks @ #1172 Friday, April 19th, 2019 – 3:57 pm

    In the absence of credible polling, punters rely on vibe and gut feel, mostly depending on a narrative set by media.

    Considering last opinion poll was 52.5-47.5 (53-47 by last election preferences), I think Labor is well set.

    We had the same thing last election. Despite tight polls, we were told Libs will win comfortably. I will change my tune if there is other credible polling. Till then I’m quite optimistic about Labor’s chances. Most of the negative media coverage is already priced in IMO. If anything, it is even less important than in 2016 where Murdoch was pushing pro-Lib propoganda.

    Gorks, if the Libs just crawled over the line with Malcolm as their “progressive” sock puppet, it’s very hard to imagine them winning without that sock-puppet. I can’t think of any advantage the Libs have that they did not have at the last election and can see a lot more disadvantages. In broad terms, voters will get a chance to vote for the future or the past. I have never seen such a stark choice. I will be staggered if they select the past. Further, this time, Labor is going to make sure it’s budget repair is much better than the libs. That will be the coup de grace.

  26. Charles:

    Here’s another on what a low-life, despicable individual Julian Assange is.

    Julian Assange not only knew that a murdered Democratic National Committee staffer wasn’t his source for thousands of hacked party emails, he was in active contact with his real sources in Russia’s GRU months after Seth Rich’s death. At the same time he was publicly working to shift blame onto the slain staffer “to obscure the source of the materials he was releasing,” Special Counsel Robert Mueller asserts in his final report on Russia’s role in the 2016 presidential election.

    “After the U.S. intelligence community publicly announced its assessment that Russia was behind the hacking operation, Assange continued to deny that the Clinton materials released by WikiLeaks had come from Russian hacking,” the report reads. “According to media reports, Assange told a U.S. congressman that the DNC hack was an ‘inside job,’ and purported to have ‘physical proof’ that Russians did not give materials to Assange.”

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/mueller-report-julian-assange-smeared-seth-rich-to-cover-for-russians?source=twitter&via=desktop

  27. Firefox says:
    Friday, April 19, 2019 at 3:59 pm

    i now live in Brisbane and have a similar experience of the cold when returning to the South West. I am sure the wind was not that cold or strong when I lived there.
    I am sure that Canberra will grow out of the company town thing over time. It certainly has the benefit of good planning and natural beauty.

  28. Received via email

    —————————-

    Friends,

    The federal election campaign threatens the future of our ancestral homelands like never before.

    So much is at stake right now. Our sacred lands and waters, our laws and customs, our unique culture and environment, are all on the line.

    Yet again, Adani and its political and media backers have made it about them. They are relentless in pressuring the people and our decision makers into approving a coal mine that would open our country to destruction.

    Stand with us as we stand our ground.

    The time has come for this country to mature, to grow up.

    We don’t want Indigenous land use agreements with mining companies. We don’t want to deal with the threat of compulsory extinguishment of our rights in the land. We need Governments to talk to us about what we want.

    We have always maintained that no means no. That Adani can’t have the land. That they can’t have the water. Not at any price.

    Water is our life, our dreaming and our sovereignty

    “The water is our life. It is our dreaming and our sovereignty. We cannot give that away. Water is central to our laws, our religion and our identity. It is the Mundunjudra, the water spirit, the rainbow serpent”. Adrian Burragubba

    Water is the creator of our dreaming. Water creates life. Yet our precious water is being given away to Adani.

    The decision by Federal Environment Minister Melissa Price to approve Adani’s groundwater plan was rushed through and politicised just before the election was called.

    It was made under intense political pressure from her coal-loving colleagues in the Queensland LNP, trying to shore up votes in central Queensland; while Adani gained special access to the highest levels of the Government and ran a ground campaign in those marginal electorates.

    The environmental approvals process has been corrupted and the science has not been properly followed, placing our country and cultural heritage at extreme risk.

    The federal government’s decision, defended by Prime Minister Scott Morrison, is a ‘go ahead’ to Adani to destroy our ancient Doongmabulla springs. But we will stand and protect them.

    Later this month we will be singing up country, and will share Karmoo Dreaming in a celebration of the water protectors.

    On the 28th of April, in Clermont, on Wangan country, we will host an event for the Bob Brown Foundation as they travel to the town. They have chosen to stand in solidarity with us as we defend our rights and our homelands. They are welcome on our country.

    But to some locals, Clermont is only a mining town, and our rights don’t matter. Some businesses have flatly refused to ever serve those who are standing with us to protect country.

    It is our common law right to practice our laws and culture on our country. We welcome anyone who will respect our ancestors, and our lands and waters.
    But hosting this event requires substantial resources. If you can, please donate to help us make it happen. We must ensure that our story, as the people from that land, is heard by many.
    :::
    We are standing in Adani’s way
    We are the original custodians. If we are ignored, and the law of the land is ignored, then we lose touch with what was originally put in place to protect us. It’s gone. There’s no history, and there’s no future.

    With your support we are resisting the destruction of Wangan and Jagalingou country, and the extinguishment of our law and culture.

    We are in a pitched battle with Adani and their political mates. We still stand in their way.

    Friends, we have Adani’s dodgy Indigenous Land Use Agreement under appeal before the full bench of the Federal Court. That ILUA should never have been certified. Our case is set for 27-28 May.

    Please donate to our Defence of Country fund to support our fight.
    And continue to stand strong with us.

    Adrian Burragubba, Murrawah Johnson & Linda Bobongie
    for the Wangan and Jagalingou Traditional Owners Family Council

    https://wanganjagalingou.com.au/donate/

    ————————————–

    https://theconversation.com/traditional-owners-still-stand-in-adanis-way-115454

    W&J Council’s resistance is particularly remarkable given the extent to which political and legal institutions and processes are stacked against them. They highlight the limits of the ILUA authorisation process, and the failure of the native title system for their people.

    The native title regime denies Indigenous peoples’ right to veto proposed development on their lands, facilitates mining and other forms of development, and is backed up by the threat of compulsory state acquisition. We have previously argued the federal government has a long history of prioritising mining development over Indigenous rights through native title.

    These dynamics have been described by United Nations Monitoring Committee on the Elimination of all forms of Racial Discrimination as racially discriminatory. Australia’s first Indigenous senior counsel, and Wangan and Jagalingou traditional owner Tony McAvoy, has similarly called the system out for “embedding racism”.
    :::
    Regardless of the outcome of the pending Federal Court appeal, the W&J Council is affirming Aboriginal authority and unsettling the settler state and its service to the mining industries.

  29. Noteable changes in seat betting this week:
    Lindsay narrowed Labor $1.72 Coalition $2.00
    Warringah widened Abbott $1.60 Steggall $2.30
    Brisbane now Coalition slight favourite Coalition $1.90 Labor $2.20
    Dickson narrowed Labor $1.65 Coalition $2.20
    Bass now Coalition slight favourite Coalition $1.82 Labor $1.90.

  30. Bennelong Lurker @ #1123 Friday, April 19th, 2019 – 2:53 pm

    A few days ago, someone asked when the MSM might look at Morrison’s Pentecostal connections. The article below by Jacqueline Maley is up on the SMH website, apparently as part of tomorrow’s Good Weekend magazine.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/inside-our-pentecostal-pm-s-church-20190416-p51ekx.html

    I heard an ABC news early this afternoon which had a segment from a Good Friday service, not from one of the main stream churches as one might expect, but from the Hillsong ratbag Pentacostals.

    Is the media now promoting their brand of irrationality?

  31. E. G. Theodore @ #2621 Friday, April 19th, 2019 – 3:50 pm

    Nicholas: “The federal governments sets the Medicare rebates. Doctors get 80 percent of their income from the federal government. The notion of doctors as independent private practitioners is a myth. They are public sector workers in substance.”

    80% is not 100%, and the 20% provides physicians with discretion which often they exercise wisely, Some examples:

    1 – GPs in high-SES areas and in CBDs will often charge somewhat above the bulk-bill rate, mostly to cover the higher running costs. They will also almost always charge their cancer patients at the bulk bill rate (based on the idea that patients with cancer have enough problems…). This has a number of potentially beneficial effects:
    a – subsidy at the coal face from well patients (charged above bulk bill) to genuinely ill (cancer and other serious conditions). Coal face subsidies are less susceptible to undermining than centrally mandated subsidies
    b – subsidy from well and wealthy patients (the worried rich) to the health system as a whole
    c – promotion of a GP role (“shared care”?) in serious diseases, for example GPs can assist their patients in dealings with specialists, particularly the technically brilliant but arrogant ones and the serial non-communicators

    2 – Private medical oncologists and other specialists who deal exclusively with serious diseases can and should charge slightly above the Medicare rate. This is beneficial as it raises the compensation of such specialists so that it keeps pace (to some extent) with that of their colleagues who have the ability to charge high fees for non-essential services (e.g. plastics surgeons undertaking cosmetic procedures). The alternative would be to create bias in favour of disciplines with a non-essential component and in particular against medical oncology and similar. The interest of the public health system in removing such bias is obvious.

    Moreover, whilst there are a few surgeons driving Maseratis (and the occasional Sydney neurosurgeon engaging in a $10,000 drug fuelled orgy), most physicians are pretty humble and grounded (this is less the case in the US, where lifetime compensation for physicians of all types is quite a bit higher) . More so than any other profession, they can probably be left to it.

    Well said EGT.

    Until the last decade or so all Australian specialists trained in the public system (as did the primary practitioners, like GPs, in their prevocational phase), and most still do. Most of us chose to work in areas that are not market driven or remunerated like the commercial conmen who rule us. It’s quite hard for even the most selectively arrogant pricks to maintain exclusivity in the face of daily contact with the reality of disease, loss and death. The contempt of ones peers does wonders to modulate Merc envy.

  32. rhw
    OH and self were discussing priorities for genuine massive reform of the health system.
    I would be curious to know what your views are on, say, the top five.
    One question we have is whether the College system tends to generate de facto monopolies combined with artificial scarcity and hence high pricing.

  33. Do these pro-Remain people have any idea how onerous a process it is to reform an EU Treaty?

    It is far more realistic for the UK to Leave, elect a democratic socialist government, and enact MMT-informed fiscal policy (including a Job Guarantee). It would be difficult to do, but much more realistic than reforming EU Treaties to make them compatible with Labour’s plans to renationalize rail and water assets.

  34. Out of pocket fees deter people from getting care that they need.

    They serve no public purpose.

    The question of how to remunerate different parts of the health care workforce is a matter for the federal government to decide in consultation with the relevant professional bodies and with regard to the national interest.

    It is not a matter that patients should have to deal with in the form of out of pocket fees.

  35. Confessions

    I saw Bill and Chloe Shorten on 24 at that Salvos. The Salvos captain said Bill is a regular visitor to talk to homeless people and regularly calls him to see how things are going.

  36. “It is far more realistic for the UK to Leave,”

    No its not. Brexit STILL up there as a profound act of political self harm.

  37. mh
    Thanks.
    IMO, and without a doubt, that vid is abusive of traditional values in relation to the imagery of Uluru.
    Apart from that, by illustrating a fracking drill tower actually ON Uluru (which will never happen) the vid is based in part at least, on a lie.
    As noted above, traditional values are often collateral damage to various whitefella wars.
    You can sort of see why TWIS and the Greens run into trouble with Indigenous peoples from time to time: when they are political grist to the Greens political mill. This is not always the case, of course. But when it does happen, the hypocrisy stinks.

  38. “The Salvos captain said Bill is a regular visitor to talk to homeless people and regularly calls him to see how things are going.”

    Bill will help feed you………..but….but…..ScoMo has a direct line to doG and will pray for you so when you die in hopeless starvation you go to heaven!

  39. E. G. Theodore says:
    Friday, April 19, 2019 at 3:50 pm

    Nicholas: “The federal governments sets the Medicare rebates. Doctors get 80 percent of their income from the federal government. The notion of doctors as independent private practitioners is a myth. They are public sector workers in substance.”

    80% is not 100%, and the 20% provides physicians with discretion which often they exercise wisely, Some examples:

    1 – GPs in high-SES areas and in CBDs will often charge somewhat above the bulk-bill rate, mostly to cover the higher running costs. They will also almost always charge their cancer patients at the bulk bill rate (based on the idea that patients with cancer have enough problems…). This has a number of potentially beneficial effects:
    a – subsidy at the coal face from well patients (charged above bulk bill) to genuinely ill (cancer and other serious conditions). Coal face subsidies are less susceptible to undermining than centrally mandated subsidies
    b – subsidy from well and wealthy patients (the worried rich) to the health system as a whole
    c – promotion of a GP role (“shared care”?) in serious diseases, for example GPs can assist their patients in dealings with specialists, particularly the technically brilliant but arrogant ones and the serial non-communicators

    2 – Private medical oncologists and other specialists who deal exclusively with serious diseases can and should charge slightly above the Medicare rate. This is beneficial as it raises the compensation of such specialists so that it keeps pace (to some extent) with that of their colleagues who have the ability to charge high fees for non-essential services (e.g. plastics surgeons undertaking cosmetic procedures). The alternative would be to create bias in favour of disciplines with a non-essential component and in particular against medical oncology and similar. The interest of the public health system in removing such bias is obvious.

    Moreover, whilst there are a few surgeons driving Maseratis (and the occasional Sydney neurosurgeon engaging in a $10,000 drug fuelled orgy), most physicians are pretty humble and grounded (this is less the case in the US, where lifetime compensation for physicians of all types is quite a bit higher) . More so than any other profession, they can probably be left to it.

    ——————————0-

    I have no quarrel with compensating medical practitioners adequately. At the present time I believe that G.P’s are being shafted while specialists can charge what they like.

    But wouldn’t it be nice if this was the scenario:

    You visit your local G.P.
    He/ She orders diagnostic tests, bloodwork or ultrasounds.
    He/She refers you to a specialist.
    The specialist decides that you require surgery.
    The surgeon sets up the operation at a hospital and performs the surgery.
    You then are referred for physiotherapy or rehabilitation services.
    In some cases there is further monitoring with additional bloodwork and diagnostic imaging.
    In all of this you do not have any concern about payment. You just present your Medicare card.
    You are not billed for anything.
    You have no need for private health insurance for basic medical and hospital services. You don’t have practitioners having to decide who deserves billing and who doesn’t. You don’t have some specialists charging all that the traffic will bear.

    Can anyone seriously suggest that the current system with all of its byzantine complexity and waste is preferable and “more than adequate” as one post suggested? Why is there such resistance from some people here against taking the profit motive out of health care?

  40. Lizzie

    Having done some work in NZ recently I can confirm what Boerwar and that environment report have said. There are still many beautiful places in NZ but a lot of the heavily farmed areas have been degraded. The dairy industry expanded rapidly under Key and English with little oversight. A bit like coal mining here. Dairy farms have taken a lot of the water out of streams, harming downstream ecosystems. In some places, e.g. central Otago / southern highlands, there are water shortages, entirely due to over-allocation, not any shortage of rain.

  41. I’m sure Morrison works with local charities as well.

    Facile pissing contests about who is more virtuous is rubbish.

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