BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor

With the final pre-campaign polls added, the poll aggregate records a continuation of the improvement in the Coalition’s position that has been evident for some time, rather than anything that might be called a “budget bounce”.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with the three post-budget polls from Newspoll, Ipsos and Essential Research, the combined effect of which is to reduce Labor’s two-party lead from 52.9-47.1 to 52.6-47.4. There’s also a fair bit going on within the state breakdowns – in fact, probably too much.

The recovery the Liberals believe they are detecting in New South Wales is well and truly coming through on BludgerTrack, albeit that Labor is still credited with a net gain of two seats there. A significant improvement has also been recorded in the Coalition’s position recently in Western Australia, although here too Labor is credited with a net gain of two seats. What we’re not seeing any sign of is the improved position the Coalition claims to be seeing in Queensland, where reports have suggested they are now hopeful of breaking even by gaining Herbert and limiting the damage in the south-east. BludgerTrack is stubbornly detecting a swing to Labor in the strategically crucial state of over 6%, translating into a gain of nine seats.

I would be a lot more confident of all this if I had more data at state level, which I’m hoping Ipsos might publish in due course – they appeared to have adopted the Newspoll practice last year of publishing quarterly state breakdowns, but we didn’t see one for October-December and are now due one for January-March. I’ve been trying to chase this up and will keep you posted.

Newspoll and Ipsos both provided new data for the leadership ratings, which are now detecting an uptick in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings, although the picture remains fairly static on preferred prime minister. All of which you can learn more about through the link below.

TECHNICAL NOTE/APPEAL FOR HELP: I’m hoping those of my readers who know their way around web programming might help me resolve an irritating niggle that’s been bedevilling the BludgerTrack display for some time. Namely, that the state breakdown tabs tend not to work, particularly when the page is first loaded. My own experience is that it requires a hard refresh before they will respond. Tablet users, I am told, can’t even do that well.

Based on my research, it would seem to be that the problem lies with the following bit of Ajax code. If anyone thinks they can offer me any pointers here, please get in touch by email at pollbludger-AT-bigpond-DOT-com.

$(document).ready(function() {
$.ajax({
cache: false,
type: "GET",
url: "bt-output.xml",
dataType: "xml",
success: xmlParser
});
});

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

799 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor”

Comments Page 5 of 16
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  1. Goll. What abilities? self aggrandizement and narcissism shrouded around his false empathy act. You might be willing to die in a ditch for Shorten but most Australians cant stand him.

  2. Dutton truly is a vile person. I honestly hope the Labor candidate in Dickson really gives him a good hiding on election night.

  3. Day two and Mr Morrison has already politicised treasury in an unprecedented manner.

    It is understood Labor contacted Treasury and the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet on Friday morning seeking confirmation or denial that Treasury was involved in costing the Opposition’s policies.

    The public service is now in caretaker mode and independent of government.

    Labor Senate leader Penny Wong said: “Treasury does not cost opposition policies…that has been their consistent position. Unless someone in Treasury told us something wrong last week, the Prime Minister is clearly using figures which have not been costed by Treasury.”

    https://www.afr.com/news/policy/tax/treasury-in-labor-firing-line-20190412-p51dgn

  4. I thought Chris Bowen’s answer to the “why” of the negative gearing changes in his recent NPC appearance was cogent and succinct. He said that the original purpose of allowing negative gearing was to support the construction of new buildings. Given that 90% of the tax deductions are for existing properties, it is a demonstrable policy failure.

    I am more than happy with that as an explanation of why it needs to change.

  5. Just catching up to find –

    Morrison on Israel Folau:

    Israel’s comments were insensitive and it is important that when you’re in public life you just be mindful of being sensitive to other Australians and that you speak with that empathy and so the ARU have made their decision in relation to that matter.

    There is no rejection here of the premise of the comments (poofs go to hell). My take is that he agrees with the comments, but not the circumstances in which they were made.

    Abbott on the planet:

    “The so-called ‘settled science’ is not quite as settled as people say. And that’s my position. Nevertheless, we’ve only got one planet. We should do what we reasonably can to rest lightly upon it.

    So I (still) know more than the scientists, and while acknowledging the bleeding obvious (earth is one planet) I intend to do SFA about what is happening to it, except to poetically rest lightly, aka ripping it apart to ensure the continued exponential path to annihilation.

    Morrison on Dutton:

    I think those comments have been taken out of context.

    They have no tolerance for the weak and disabled. (except his brother for whom , and for whom alone – this is for you whateverhisnamewas). Not among gods favoured would be my only possible explanation. Other than that, it’s plain bastardry.

  6. It has probably been said already, but Peter Dutton is a grub.

    Lower than the mole crickets that continue to destroy my lawn.

  7. Scott Morrison snapped at Sunrise host Natalie Barr this morning — saying “I know my policy” — after she asked him to explain the difference between the Coalition and Labor on electric cars

  8. Nath
    I must acknowledge your expertise regarding “self aggrandizement and narcissism ” so will give these aspects some more thought.

  9. It’s very impressive that someone as highly credentialed as Brian Owler is prepared to stand in a seat which he has only an outside chance of winning. He obviously believes in what he is doing.

  10. self aggrandizement and narcissism shrouded around his false empathy act.

    You’ve pretty much described every politician who is confident enough to believe they can correctly make decisions that might affect millions of people’s lives.

  11. poroti @ #214 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 11:40 am

    ItzaDream

    Folau is Assembly of God what he said would be right in line with the views of Scrott’s church.

    Horizon Church (formerly Shirelive) is a Pentecostal Christian church affiliated with Australian Christian Churches, the Australian branch of the Assemblies of God

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horizon_Church

    Yes indeed. Morrison was basically saying – listen mate I’m with you all the way on this, but you just gotta be more careful where you say it these days.

  12. Liberal state director Simon Frost left no doubt that he and his colleagues were digging in to fight Labor to a standstill in Victoria.

    “The federal election is a referendum on tax,” Mr Frost told The Age.

    “The Morrison Liberal government has a plan for lower, simpler, taxes.”

    No. It’s a plan for Flat Tax. Which favours the rich.

  13. I’m already getting the impression that the Libs are running on empty with regards to cash and that they are stumbling through the campaign. Their campaign seems to be focussed on Morrison as Leader and this is simply exposing his shortcomings. The centralised distributionn of videos and the like is clearly a cost saving exercise and the media is already beginning to grumble about lack of access and Campaign by press release alone.

  14. when will labor raise this:

    How Scott Morrison voted on key issues since 2006:
    Voted very strongly against extending government benefits to same-sex couples.
    Voted and d/campaigned very strongly against same sex marriage bills
    Abstained from voting on same sex marriage legalisation
    Voted very strongly against tobacco plain packaging
    Voted very strongly against a carbon price.
    Voted 26 times againts a royal commission in the financial sector
    Has voted against a national anti-corruption commission
    Voted very strongly against the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme
    Voted very strongly against increasing protection of Australia’s fresh water
    Voted strongly against increasing marine conservation.
    Voted strongly for unconventional gas mining.
    Voted very strongly against restricting foreign ownership.
    Voted very strongly against increasing investment in renewable energy
    Voted very strongly for privatising government assets.
    Voted very strongly against increasing Aboriginal land rights.
    Voted very strongly against increasing funding for university education.
    Voted very strongly against decreasing the private health insurance rebate.
    Voted very strongly for increasing the price of subsidised medicine.
    Voted moderately against increasing the age pension.
    Voted very strongly for live animal exports.
    Voted very strongly against carbon farming.
    Voted very strongly for decreasing availability of welfare payments.
    Voted very strongly against re-approving/ re-registering agvet chemicals.
    Voted very strongly for the Intervention in the Northern Territory.
    Voted very strongly against increasing restrictions on gambling.
    Voted very strongly against increasing fishing restrictions.
    Voted very strongly against increasing consumer protections.
    Voted very strongly against increasing public access to government data.
    Voted very strongly against a first-world NBN (using fibre to the premises).
    Voted very strongly for decreasing ABC and SBS funding.

    And the company he keeps – those abstaining from the same-sex marriage vote despite their electorates backing it:
    Barnaby Joyce (Nationals)
    Tony Abbott (Liberals)
    Andrew Hastie (Liberals)
    Michael Sukkar (Liberals)
    Kevin Andrews (Liberals)
    Scott Morrison (Liberals)
    George Christensen (LNP)
    Rick Wilson (Liberals)
    Stuart Robert (Liberals)
    Bert van Manen (Liberals)

  15. It is always interesting that ‘people’ tend to believe their own opinion is what all Aussies believe.

    I don’t believe that’s interesting.

  16. Israel Folau can believe what he likes, and to a broad extent – contractual obligations aside – he can give voice to them. What he really should begin to understand is that an offensively reductive soteriology is utterly lacking in the only quality that is important, grace. But since that position is vigorously taught by his sect, I hold out very little hope.

  17. A copy of the email here, if you find it.
    Hi William,

    I’ve not encountered the issue you raised in your post, however, on the ‘Methadology’ page
    https://www.pollbludger.net/bludgertrack2019/methodology.htm?
    Which loads over https, you then have a link to the jquery library here.
    http://code.jquery.com/jquery-1.12.4.min.js
    which as you see, is not using https, this will cause some browsers to complain and even block this so called ‘mixed content’
    For this one, throw an ‘s’ on it.
    https://code.jquery.com/jquery-1.12.4.min.js

    I will continue trying to break it and let you know what I find.

    Regards,
    Zeh

    EDIT: The same issue exists on the leadership ratings page here https://www.pollbludger.net/bludgertrack2019/leaders.htm?

    Again, just make sure the jquery library is being called using https://

    Mixed content was previously ‘allowed’ but warned against, however in more recent versions of browsers, particularly chrome(ium), it is blocked completely.

  18. I couldn’t reproduce the issue either. Though the note about ‘tablet users’ suggests maybe it’s a Safari-specific thing.

    Another way to avoid mixed content is to source in external resources like:

    //code.jquery.com/jquery-1.12.4.min.js

    Then the browser fills in the protocol based upon whatever was used to access the page.

  19. Autocrat: “ an offensively reductive soteriology is utterly lacking in the only quality that is important, grace. ”

    The Acts of the Apostles is what one might reasonably consider as a manual of evangelism. Interestingly it does not include threatening people with hellfire and damnation. This prompts the question: “What is it that Israel Folau knows about evangelism that the (evangelist) apostles did not?”

  20. Whenever I read transcript of shorten press conferences in the Guardian I always note how well organised his thoughts are. He really does think in paragraphs rather than sentences with a good logical flow to his arguments. I find that very impressive.

  21. lizzie @ #61 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 8:15 am

    I keep reading that my electorate (Casey) is one of the possible “in dangers”, but as a counterpoint I am also reading that Speaker Tony Smith (Casey) is safe.

    I am unaware of any effort Smith has made on Casey’s behalf, except an annual FIGJAM mail-out.

    I’m not going to vote for him just because we have the ‘privilege’ of sending a Speaker to Parliament.

    He is widely acknowledged as having been a good speaker.
    But should Labor win, he will not be speaker any longer.

  22. Just watching the Shorten presser and it seems he’s limiting himself to just a couple of debates.

    He should accept a debate with Morrison anywhere anytime. Why wouldn’t he, given the govts hopeless record.. ?

  23. The Norvill-Rush case would probably had a different outcome had the judge not been an old privileged white man.

    Exactly. The legal community – particularly the judiciary – is culturally conservative and has many blind spots, one of which is preventing and responding effectively to various forms of sexual misconduct.

  24. nath @ #72 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 8:28 am

    I quite enjoyed and agree with Peter Hartcher’s assessment that the election: “It’s a contest between an angry dad figure in a baseball cap and a sad sack who looks like he learned public speaking at a funeral parlour.”

    Bill should learn to laugh and ridicule the nonsense being spouted by the Morrison gang.

  25. Reading this makes me very thankful that you aren’t a judge.

    I am very thankful that you are likely a superannuated centrist, not a manager with responsibility for making workplaces safe and inclusive.

  26. So – Shorten says “newstart too low” and is that to assume it will rise “has to be”

    Now, lets see the naysayers find a way to rewrite his words.

  27. Dutton once again shows his complete disconnect with human decency.

    It’s a reflection of the voters that elect him.

    jenauthor @ #244 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 12:43 pm

    So – Shorten says “newstart too low” and is that to assume it will rise “has to be”

    Now, lets see the naysayers find a way to rewrite his words.

    just words …no actions

  28. Having same problem as Zeh, but a different suggestion. here’s the email I sent:

    I’m a software developer with a fair bit of Javascript experience. At first glance this looks like a browser compatibility issue, possibly with the xml parsing stuff. If you haven’t found help already, could you please let me know
    a) What browsers it tends not to work on.
    b) How you established that that ajax snippet was to blame
    c) Any error messages you see in the F12 Developer Tools Console.

    Cheers

  29. Fed political reporter for Seven Network.

    Olivia Leeming @olivialeeming

    First night on the campaign trail and instead of covering an event with Scott Morrison, journalists are sent videos/photos from his staff. He had dinner and called bingo at Windsor RSL. Keen to show you more but we were only informed after it happened #ausvotes #auspol2019

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