The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with the three post-budget polls from Newspoll, Ipsos and Essential Research, the combined effect of which is to reduce Labor’s two-party lead from 52.9-47.1 to 52.6-47.4. There’s also a fair bit going on within the state breakdowns – in fact, probably too much.
The recovery the Liberals believe they are detecting in New South Wales is well and truly coming through on BludgerTrack, albeit that Labor is still credited with a net gain of two seats there. A significant improvement has also been recorded in the Coalition’s position recently in Western Australia, although here too Labor is credited with a net gain of two seats. What we’re not seeing any sign of is the improved position the Coalition claims to be seeing in Queensland, where reports have suggested they are now hopeful of breaking even by gaining Herbert and limiting the damage in the south-east. BludgerTrack is stubbornly detecting a swing to Labor in the strategically crucial state of over 6%, translating into a gain of nine seats.
I would be a lot more confident of all this if I had more data at state level, which I’m hoping Ipsos might publish in due course – they appeared to have adopted the Newspoll practice last year of publishing quarterly state breakdowns, but we didn’t see one for October-December and are now due one for January-March. I’ve been trying to chase this up and will keep you posted.
Newspoll and Ipsos both provided new data for the leadership ratings, which are now detecting an uptick in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings, although the picture remains fairly static on preferred prime minister. All of which you can learn more about through the link below.
TECHNICAL NOTE/APPEAL FOR HELP: I’m hoping those of my readers who know their way around web programming might help me resolve an irritating niggle that’s been bedevilling the BludgerTrack display for some time. Namely, that the state breakdown tabs tend not to work, particularly when the page is first loaded. My own experience is that it requires a hard refresh before they will respond. Tablet users, I am told, can’t even do that well.
Based on my research, it would seem to be that the problem lies with the following bit of Ajax code. If anyone thinks they can offer me any pointers here, please get in touch by email at pollbludger-AT-bigpond-DOT-com.
$(document).ready(function() {
$.ajax({
cache: false,
type: "GET",
url: "bt-output.xml",
dataType: "xml",
success: xmlParser
});
});
Looking at bludger track, the recent improvement in polls for Coalition seems mostly to come from NSW. Maybe I’m making a mistake but it seems to me improvement has begun with the state election campaign. The movement in other states is much more subdued.
I have deliberately kept out of any #meetoo type of discussion. As a woman I have, over the years (since I was a well-endowed 😆 12 year old), been subjected to the leers and inappropriate behaviour of men.
BUT.
I think the movement has gone overboard and now threatens itself. We must not assume every allegation is true, or false. If Ms Norville’s evidence was deemed by an eminent HC judge that it lacked credibility … I am satisfied it lacked credibility. This judge is where he is because of his impeccable record.
Too often these days, people get swept away by a meme and forget that accusations are not necessarily true, but also what one person sees as harmless, others, gripped by the meme, see as poisonous.
Many of the leers, and inappropriate approaches I got over the years were not nasty, or malicious (some were but I dealt with them). Men can easily be heavy-handed in their approach – but I did not want them destroyed because of that.
My 35 year old son wonders whether we will ever get back to a point where men and women can be comfortable in social situations simply because even the slightest touch can be seen as aggressive sexual behaviour.
I’m not a woman. But as I wander around the city I wonder what happened to the wolf-whistles from building sites I heard in my youth. Has the CMFEU destroyed another great Australian tradition?
antonbruckner11
🙂
I try not to post too often.
mundo @ #150 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 10:08 am
Because the government calls it (and the other Labor reforms) a new/increased tax, and nobody in the media ever challenges them on that characterization?
The improvement in the coalition’s polling seems to have come about because they’ve hardly been sighted, given parliament has hardly sat this year. No they’re front and centre again. let’s see how people react to them
To mundo “feet planted on the ground” = pessimistic.
The tax issue was a necessary risk. They couldn’t coast into government just promising to be calmer and more stable, they couldn’t jettison the aggressive big-target items from the 2016 campaign. They need to show contrast, as well as show they’re going to be good stewards of the public purse.
The issue, which seems lost to many around here, while climate is one of my first-order issues, it isn’t for swing voters in marginals. Cost of living, health and jobs are the drivers. I’m not dismissing the importance of Adani, but it’s not simple or straightforward, it’s a potent issue in some seats.
CFMEU and wolf-whistles. I went to a site induction where the CMFEU were clearly involved. Site inductions are basically all the same; but this one made two additional points. No crap to be written on the toilet walls; and no jumping of the cranes.
antonbruckner
“I’m not a woman. But as I wander around the city I wonder what happened to the wolf-whistles from building sites I heard in my youth. Has the CMFEU destroyed another great Australian tradition?”
I’ve been told (by a number of female acquaintances) that truckies are keeping this tradition alive.
Even if there’s water underneath?
frednk – What about not throwing bricks at the portaloos. I heard of one guy who stepped out of the dunny and got conked on the head with a brick.
Why are Treasury costing Coalition pipe dreams?
How can treasury cost non existent policies?
Will Labor get a catering company to cost theirs?
I’ve got to hand it to Dutton. It’s not easy to blow off your foot, then hold it together long enough to blow off the other. He’s obviously desperate. Surely he’s killed off any chance of winning Dixon.
shiftaling @ #162 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 10:31 am
Because they want to give the figures a veneer of believability. However, people should be made aware of exactly who the Treasury Secretary is right now. The Department has been thoroughly politicised.
anton,
Served him right for not having his hard hat on!
‘Cameron C. says:
Friday, April 12, 2019 at 9:33 am
Imagine the following, plausible, post-election scenario.
(1) Labor get a very slim majority of 76-77 seats, or a minority, with the support of Bandt/Wilkie to add to their 74-75 seats. They just scrape over the line owing to a few seat wins in Victoria while the Coalition hold all their NSW and Qld seats and gain Lindsay and Herbert.
(2) Dutton and Abbott hold their seats respectively.
Do you think Scrot would continue as opposition leader in this instance?
Do you think that this would be a worse scenario for Labor in the long run than losing the election outright?’
A transparent and somewhat plodding approach to trailing the coat.
Imagine this scenario.
Labor continues on its current track and thrashes the arse off the Morrison Government.
Abbott and Dutton both lose their seats.
Who cares who leads the Opposition?
They are yesterday’s grumpy old white men.
‘antonbruckner11 says:
Friday, April 12, 2019 at 10:36 am
I’ve got to hand it to Dutton. It’s not easy to blow off your foot, then hold it together long enough to blow off the other. He’s obviously desperate. Surely he’s killed off any chance of winning Dixon.’
What has he done now? Let a hundred au pairs bloom?
An interesting piece of history from a Fairfax contributor (Commodore) on Morrison’s statement that Assange will receive no special treatment re.the extradition proceeding to the US. It seems that as far as the Tories are concerned, nothing changes, not that Australia would have standing in the matter:
[‘Historically Morrison’s comment reminds me of 1972 when the Liberal Government jailed (even shaved their heads) all the conscientious objectors the week before the election out of spite because they knew they were going to lose. Gough released them the evening he won. Wikileaks has historically marked the start of the exposure of entrenched corruption throughout the world – let’s carry on.’]
Have the Greens costed their 500,000 houses yet?
Boerwar, Dutton accused Ali France of using her disability as an excuse to not live in the electorate.
She has been unable to find a suitable home that has been adapted for her disability but say she will buy if she wins and adapt the property.
Not good enough for this ar*$%*le.
Made himself into an idiot
briefly @ #140 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 10:02 am
This is exactly the point I wish Labor could make clearly. It is the Housing Bubble, created by Housing Investor speculation that drives up rents! Not Labor’s changes to Negative Gearing!
The election called and suddenly the media has dropped the stories of Price awarding grants before the funding rounds have been opened, and granting adani’s groundwater plant against scientific advice, and dutton getting $20K to meet with and do favours for a possible/ probable chinese agent.
Similarly, Paladin and Helloworld and dodgy donations to ‘Foundations’ that only donate/support the LNP are overlooked. why are these not issues?
‘jenauthor says:
Friday, April 12, 2019 at 10:43 am
Boerwar, Dutton accused Ali France of using her disability as an excuse to not live in the electorate.
She has been unable to find a suitable home that has been adapted for her disability but say she will buy if she wins and adapt the property.
Not good enough for this ar*$%*le.
Made himself into an idiot’
Oh. Thanks.
One of the truly gruesome episodes of 2018 was when Dutton, manoeuvring to kill off Turnbull, was persuaded by his handlers that he needed to humanize himself.
His efforts at smiling for the camera were something horrible to behold.
Humanity and Dutton have yet to come together.
Boerwar,
From The Guardian:
Just when you thought Dutton couldn’t stoop any lower he comes out with this:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/both-sides-expect-the-election-to-be-dirty-but-few-thought-peter-dutton-could-go-so-low-so-quickly-20190412-p51dgb.html
Tanya is golden:
Bless! 🙂
Oooh oooh ,I know !!!
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2019/apr/12/federal-election-2019-coalition-labor-tax-economy-morrison-shorten-politics-live
Jordan Steele-John is also an eloquent spokesman for the Disabled:
I am assured by Mr Morrison that if he wins, I will have him as PM for the next three years. I am assured if Mr Shorten wins, I will have him as PM for the next three years. It also seems reasonable to assume that if Mr Shorten wins I will have Ms Plibersek as DPM for the next three years.
A matter that has not been dealt with is, if Mr Morrison wins, who will be the DPM for the next three years and will it be the same person over the entire period.?
Remember Dutton’s challenge to Turnbull. Has to be one of the most ludicrous episodes in Australian political history:
It is good to be in front of the cameras where I can smile and maybe show a different side to what I show when I talk about border protection.
Peter Dutton’s timing couldn’t have been worse 😆
Tanya Plibersek will be in……
Dickson.
With Ali France. At 11.30.
Julie Collins, the shadow mental health and aging minister will also be there.
nath @ #181 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 11:04 am
Imagine if that man HAD become Prime Minister last August!?!
It appears that Amy has a low opinion of QandA (like the rest of us).
“The Bad Show continues to be The Bad Show”
C@tmomma @ #182 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 11:04 am
I assumed they threw Tanya onto a plane as soon as the story broke! She was in Melbourne this morning according to the Guardian.
If Dutton had been PM then the ALP would have got to 100 seats for sure.
“”. I also noted the pretty unambiguous statement by the two Centre Alliance senators, who are likely to hold the balance of power, “”
Vote ALP in the Senate!.
If you want to change course!.
Duttons comments are reminiscent of Abbotts gratuitous commentary about Bernie Banton in 2007.
antonbruckner11 @ #185 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 11:07 am
No, I know for a fact that the leaders’ daily diaries are planned to within an inch of their lives weeks, if not months ahead of time. Tanya’s would have at least been scheduled, at the very latest, last week, to be there with Ali France today. Before this story broke.
“I assumed they threw Tanya onto a plane as soon as the story broke! She was in Melbourne this morning according to the Guardian.”
Tanya was in Melbourne yesterday, too. It’s an election campaign – she doesn’t have to spend it in the same city.
mundo…there is a plethora of lies about the policy. There’s widespread misunderstanding of the system too, which has been in existence since before WW2. It is an outrageous rort and is one of the factors contributing to the secular decline in rates of home ownership and to the demographic divide in Australia.
By means of this policy, taxes paid by tenants are used to subsidise the property investments of landlords.
It is one of the worst samples of anti-egalitarian, regressive policy in our system.
nath @ #186 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 11:08 am
Maybe they still will!?! 35 days to go. 😆
Cat
Jordan Steel John has been an excellent addition to the Senate. The Greens in Western Australia did well recruiting him.
Wow! The Victorian State budget has been delayed until after the federal election…..
I was in a supermarket queue a while back and something happened (can’t remember what it was now) which caused me to suddenly back into the young woman standing behind me. I immediately apologised for my faux pas, saying to her that I hadn’t meant to touch her. To which she replied “That’s ok, I’m not that precious”. Which left me feeling both a little foolish, but at the same time pleased that there are still young women out there (probably most of them I would say) who still have a very sensible and reasonable attitude towards men.
I rarely talk about Tanya, because I try not to be too gushing, but what a woman. I wish I was her intern.
lizzie @ #33 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 7:22 am
Ridicule is a powerful political weapon. So far, Labor is not using it enough.
Get the people laughing at these clowns.
Link to Vic gov statement
https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/statement-on-victorian-budget/
possum gets it right!
Possum Comitatus
@Pollytics
13m13 minutes ago
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The only people surprised that Peter Dutton could be such a grub are people that haven’t been paying attention to Peter Dutton for the last 18 years
With possibly the best credentialed next PM to be elected before the end of May, Labor will nudge the century.
Very few are prepared to argue against the next new PM’s abilities, many coalition supporters are acknowleging the forthcoming new government and its leader.