Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

A positive reception to the budget fails to move the needle on Essential Research’s voting intention reading. Also featured: a closer look at the budget response results from Newspoll.

As reported by The Guardian, Essential Research has provided the third post-budget poll, and it concurs with Newspoll in having Labor leading 52-48, but in not in finding the Coalition’s improved, since 52-48 was where Essential already had it a fortnight ago. Both major parties are down a point, the Coalition to 38% and Labor to 35%, the Greens are up one to 11% and One Nation is down two to 5% – which means the residue is up fairly substantially, by three points to 10%.

The poll also agrees with Newspoll and Ipsos in finding a positive response to the budget, which was rated favourably by 51% and unfavourably by 27%. Respondents were presented with a list of budget measures and asked yea or nay, with unsurprising responses: strongly positive for infrastructure spending, tax relief measures aimed at those on low and middle incomes and the projection of a surplus, but much weaker on flattening tax scales. Also featured was an occasional question on best party to handle various issues, which does not appear to have thrown up anything unusual. Full detail on that will become available when the full report is published later today.

UPDATE: Full report from Essential Research here. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1069.

Backtracking a little to the weekend’s Newspoll numbers, I offer the following displays covering three of their measures in two charts, placing the results in the context of the post-budget polling that Newspoll has been conducting in consistent fashion since 1988. The first is a scatterplot for the questions on the budget’s anticipated impact on personal finances and the economy as a whole (net measures in both cases, so positive effect minus negative effect), with last week’s budget shown in red. Naturally enough, these measures are broadly correlated. However, respondents were, relatively speaking, less convinced about the budget’s economic impact than they normally would be of a budget rated so highly for its impact on personal finances.

Nonetheless, the standout fact is that the budget was very well received overall – the personal finances response was the second highest ever recorded, and economic impact came equal seventh out of thirty-two. There are, however, two grounds on which Labor can take heart. First, the one occasion when the personal finances result surpassed this budget was in 2007, immediately before the last time the Coalition was evicted from office. The second is provided by the question of whether the opposition would have done better, which if anything came slightly at the high end of average. For Labor to hold its ground here in the context of a budget that had a net rating of plus 25 on personal impact, compared with plus two last year, suggests voters have revised upwards their expectations of what Labor might do for them financially.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

754 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 15 of 16
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  1. nath

    Ah, but the NBN has major benefits for public education and health. Just for starters, delivery of remote health services and education services are cheaper with the NBN.

    There were various studies which showed that the NBN could pay for itself at least four times over, mainly because of the money it would save governments in service delivery.

  2. I am pretty hardline on government expenditure. The amount of waste is extraordinary. Of course the NBN is a fraction of the practice of pissing billions directly into a drain, otherwise known as funding the military, JSF and submarines. I’d like public education and health to be fully funded first.

  3. “Because I think the money would’ve been better spent on public education and health? Rather than give Jen’s business a leg up? strange world!”

    False dichotomy, Nath. We could have both decent NBN AND health and education spend.

    What about not buying submarines?

    Edit: looks like you beat me to the subs idea

  4. nath is a small thinker i see, NBN can be a huge benefit for education and even hospitals.
    Government spends billions on submarines and fighter jets… but having a decent internet … well never mind!

  5. Nicko, don’t you see the absurdity of running NBN out to public schools with no air-conditioning and full of de-mountables?

  6. about 150 schools in NSW that still don’t have air cooling in their permanent classrooms, according to new data that reveals the haves and have nots when it comes to air cooling across the state.
    The Education Department figures, obtained by the NSW opposition, detail the number of air cooling systems in schools’ permanent classrooms. They show there are 10,000 classrooms in NSW with no form of air conditioning or evaporative coolers.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/where-summer-is-stifling-the-nsw-schools-with-and-without-air-con-20180711-p4zqsx.html

  7. nath @ #698 Tuesday, April 9th, 2019 – 10:20 pm

    Barney in Saigon
    says:
    Tuesday, April 9, 2019 at 10:16 pm
    nath’s progressive credentials have certainly taken a hammering tonight.
    _______________________
    Because I think the money would’ve been better spent on public education and health? Rather than give Jen’s business a leg up? strange world!

    A proper fibre NBN provides a platform to enable the development of enhanced educational and health services. And many other things besides.

  8. nath
    “So why get rid of Telstra in the first place? Most people didn’t need really fast speeds anyway. Most were happy with enough to watch porn, cat videos, send an email. The whole thing was an exercise in technological masturbation.”
    I beg to differ;
    “The schools now… It is all about self-esteem in the schools now.
    Build the kids’ self-esteem, make them feel good about themselves.
    If everybody grows up with high self-esteem, who is going to dance in our strip clubs?
    What’s going to happen to our porno industry?
    These women don’t just grown on trees.
    It takes lots of drunk dads missing dance recitals before you decide to blow a goat on the internet for fifty bucks.
    And if that disappears, where does that leave me on a Friday night with my new high speed connection?”

  9. When I posted about this a few days ago I surmised that, like other left field Trumplandia stories it had the potential to be bigger than what it originally purported to be. But WTF with recent reportng?

    Mother JonesVerified account@MotherJones
    24m24 minutes ago
    A Chinese woman arrested after breaching security at President’s Donald Trump’s private club in Florida had a signal detector, other electronics, and thousands of dollars stashed in her hotel room.

    https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2019/04/trumps-mar-a-lago-scandal-just-got-bigger/

  10. nath @ #710 Tuesday, April 9th, 2019 – 10:36 pm

    Of course the best private schools have advanced air systems, anti-allergenic, the works!

    My first modem, which I built myself, in pre-internet days was V21 300bps and V23 1200/75 bps. I used it to connect to bulletin boards and thought it was pretty cool.
    Should we have stopped there and not advanced?

  11. So it was a surprise on Tuesday to find that Victorian Assistant Treasurer Robin Scott had managed to be overpaid by $63,161 between November 2014, when he scored his job as Finance Minister, and September 2016 when the error was identified and be blissfully ignorant of the fact.

    Surely he cannot be that bloody stupid. Of course he would have known he was being overpaid.

  12. Goll
    says:
    Tuesday, April 9, 2019 at 10:38 pm
    Good internet would remove the need for schools, air conditioners and demountables perhaps.
    _______________________________
    ROFL. this guy is a treasure. you beautiful foolish man. 🙂

  13. Dio:

    Even super fast internet can’t get losers laid, no matter how much porn they consume. Just look at the Incel movement in the US where they are imploring the Trump administration to issue them with taxpayer funded prostitute vouchers.

    But in any case, the argument for super fast broadband has little to do with porn.

  14. taylormade @ #715 Tuesday, April 9th, 2019 – 10:41 pm

    So it was a surprise on Tuesday to find that Victorian Assistant Treasurer Robin Scott had managed to be overpaid by $63,161 between November 2014, when he scored his job as Finance Minister, and September 2016 when the error was identified and be blissfully ignorant of the fact.

    Surely he cannot be that bloody stupid. Of course he would have known he was being overpaid.

    He had been paid something for which he never applied.
    Stop your lying or can’t you help it?

  15. Confessions @ #651 Tuesday, April 9th, 2019 – 7:11 pm

    Jaeger:

    I’m fully expecting the replacement modem Telstra send me to be just as useless, but hopeful that I get a call tomorrow from the technician to attend the house. S/he can then set up the modem and make it sure it works while on-site.

    When my HFC internet got put in a few weeks ago a part of the process was that the NBN tech verified that it was working properly before he left.

    The other part of your problem is Telstra. You should switch to a decent ISP like Aussie Broadband (with thanks to C@t for referring me).

  16. An underlying assumption of nath and other technical illiterates is that copper pairs last for ever. They don’t.
    Much of the copper network was in a poor state of repair and it made sense to replace it with state of the art technology with lower maintenance requirements, lower energy requirements, much greater capacity and an much longer life.

  17. Goll
    says:
    Tuesday, April 9, 2019 at 10:48 pm
    Nath
    Did your mother not tell you to count to ten before opening your mouth?
    ________________________________
    Look Goll. I think your education policy of removing schools is quite a bold move. Is this Bill Shorten’s ultimate plan? Are you his education advisor? This could save us trillions. Consider the cost of schooling, teachers, maintenance etc. Think of all the teachers that could be re deployed to farms. Would you close universities too?

  18. citizen @ #660 Tuesday, April 9th, 2019 – 7:19 pm

    I understand about the ability of advertisers to target particular categories of people on social media and the Internet.

    However I wonder if the flood of taxpayer funded LNP advertising has turned a lot of people off political advertising, especially from Morrison’s mob. It’s a bit like the concept of diminishing marginal returns – the more you are exposed to advertising, the less you are influenced by it.

    I would love to think that Morrison’s mob have, at least partially, shot themselves in the proverbial foot with their saturation (taxpayer funded) advertising.

    The diminishing return is a moot point when you’re not paying for the advertising. The way they see it, the more the better so that the well is poisoned for when Labor has to pay for its own advertising.

  19. EGW

    Who gives a shit whether he applied or not. Didn’t he look at his payslips and he said nothing to anyone for 2 years.

  20. Well Taylormade, he paid it back (noting it was an administration error paying him $600- per week over what they should have been paying him – but $60,000- makes a better headline than $600- less tax at the upper marginal tax rate doesn’t it? And, of course, in 5 years time he will be paying less tax under the Menzies Party – except Menzies INCREASED personal and Company Tax Rates. So much for the DNA, hey?)

    Unlike the Liberal Party guy who embezzled how much?

    Not paying it back

    And got the job despite misgivings from the Tasmanian Branch where he was previously employed

  21. Got reply back on why we are only getting 22-25 when we signed up for 48-50.

    As we are 1.5 km from the node that is the most we will get. Option is to stay with 50 plan and get 25 or drop to 12 plan, and get 22 I presume.

    Still us better than what we were getting. Kids doing a full test on it tomorrow streaming lectures.

    Hope it works, saves them a hour drive each way to go in to catch up up on missed content.

  22. Nath
    Youve gone off half cocked again. Give yourself some time to digest some thoughts and count. Then get back to me.
    Who mentioned removing schools, advisors, Shorten, trillions, maintenance, teachers, universities…………..farms FFS!

  23. Goll
    says:
    Tuesday, April 9, 2019 at 10:57 pm
    Nath
    Youve gone off half cocked again. Give yourself some time to digest some thoughts and count. Then get back to me.
    Who mentioned removing schools, advisors, Shorten, trillions, maintenance, teachers, universities…………..farms FFS!
    _____________________________________
    Um, you did:

    Goll
    says:
    Tuesday, April 9, 2019 at 10:38 pm
    Good internet would remove the need for schools, air conditioners and demountables perhaps.

  24. Worse thing is we saw them laying the cable some 30 metres from our place on its way to the node.

    Not much work to branch it down to ours and other houses, but not to be. Maybe in later years.

    Most get an idea of what internet should be when they travel overseas.

  25. Boris @ #730 Tuesday, April 9th, 2019 – 9:00 pm

    Worse thing is we saw them laying the cable some 30 metres from our place on its way to the node.

    Not much work to branch it down to ours and other houses, but not to be. Maybe in later years.

    Most get an idea of what internet should be when they travel overseas.

    It’s almost criminal. The sheer waste and incompetence of the coalition govt just cannot be believed.

  26. The great thing about infrastructure, when done well it compliments many other areas of policy.

    A proper NBN has health, education and business benefits to name a few.

    A business that is reliant on quality internet would no longer be restricted to particular areas of our main cities, they could locate themselves in regional centres.

    This would help to take pressure off our ever expanding cities and help rejuvenate regional centres.

  27. Jonathan LemireVerified account@JonLemire
    2h2 hours ago
    NEW: When the Mueller probe ended, President Trump took a victory lap.

    It may have been premature.

    Now, with the full report likely to be released in coming days, fears among Trump allies are growing – and they are stepping up their attacks

    What do they fear? Trump declared himself exonerated which indicates he believes Mueller’s report gives him a clean bill of health. Put up or shut up Trump people.

  28. Do you guys understand how the tech works..fibre optic.travels at light speed so theoretically the tech can be improved without replacing the basic infrastructure. that’s why its so much better than copper or mobile. 5G will be faster better can never match fibre to the premises. businesses and people working from home benefit from the ability to upload faster and with much greater bandwidth. also once the infrastructure is built mainly underground it is less vulnerable to weather etc. Its like a pipe a small pipe and a wider pipe can run at the same speed but a wider one allows more to pass through…bandwidth. It costs more initially but will be cheaper over time to upgrade to faster speeds.

  29. There is an article on the CNBC Dow Futures Web site referring to Bank of America committing to lifting their minimum wage to $20- an hour – and $41,000- PA

    Interesting is that their tellers etc also rely on government support including food coupons

    No doubt the Liberal Party template for Australian workers outed by Bank of America who are breaking the party mould

  30. The Rudd Government should have started the NBN earlier in its term and the Gillard Government should have legislatively protected the fibre all the way model, giving more than a year extra in total of extra fibre all the way installation.

  31. taylormade says:
    Tuesday, April 9, 2019 at 10:53 pm

    EGW

    Who gives a shit whether he applied or not. Didn’t he look at his payslips and he said nothing to anyone for 2 years.

    When your wage is more than sufficient to meet your needs, why would you check?

    I never checked mine here.

    Occasionally they would come to me and apologise that my pay hadn’t gone into my account on the proper day. I never noticed and my main concern was for the locals who did live from pay day to pay day.

  32. I went to get the NBN installed at my place a couple of years ago, FTTP, organised through Telstra. I put aside a half day for it, which had all sorts of knock on effects with other people and their arrangements.

    And then the installer never turned up, and never called. At that point, I cancelled my order, and have been using wireless broadband ever since. I later found out that such episodes are as common as muck: see https://www.itnews.com.au/news/nbn-co-technicians-now-missing-469-appointments-a-day-523214.

    But that doesn’t alter the fact that it’s crap customer service, indicative of a low quality operation. Any system where installers are contractors, paid by NBNCO but tasked through NBNCO by ISPs is a recipe for disaster, and for things falling down a crack.

    It’s not the speed or otherwise of an NBN connection that worries me: it’s the sense that the whole setup is unprofessional through and through.

  33. When they started their streaming service they increased the cost to $15 per month, and when they stopped supporting DVDs they dropped it to $10 again. And that’s when internet congestion really kicked in.

    They never stopped supporting the DVDs-in-the-mail system, I saw it mentioned just the other day that they still have almost 3 million subscribers using the mailed-out DVDs in the US.

  34. “The Rudd Government should have started the NBN earlier in its term”

    Well there was the small matter of the GFC to worry about.

    Aside from that the Rudd government wasted a couple of years trying to get the private sector on board with the project. Which at that stage was FTTN. At this stage most in the Coalition were totally opposed to a FTTN rollout and in favour of FTTP. The National’s Fiona Nash actually used the term “fraudband” to describe FTTN.

    Once it became obvious that the private sector submissions were completely hopeless and incompetent, it was decided that a government project was the only option. They then asked some comms experts how they should go about starting the project and they were unanimously told they would be mad to use FTTN and that FTTP (optical fibre) was the way to go.

    Unfortunately the infrastructure necessary for implementing any kind of solution happened to belong to Telstra thanks to the Howard government grant of a monopoly in the 90s. So negotiations with Telstra took another year or so.

    Then once everything was in place the great asbestos scandal virtually brought the rollout to a halt. Telstra who was being paid billions for access to their pits and ducts, proved completely incompetent to resolve issues with asbestos linings.

    So that was pretty much the state of play when the Coalition rolled into town in 2013 and raped and pillaged the NBN such that it is in the pathetic state it is in today.

  35. Tom TFAB,

    I believe legislation to split Telstra was required before the NBN could proceed. This had to wait until the 2nd term because of the senate.

  36. Must sleep better…

    “It’s almost criminal. The sheer waste and incompetence of the coalition govt just cannot be believed.”

    I suspect in many things the Liberals actions are not so much unethical but legal as illegal but unprosecuted.

    I also caught up with the bizarre right wing counter to Getup called Captain Getup! Rotfl

    The Liberals should start a right wing action group called ScrewUp! They can then use it to lobby for any idiotic idea they can think of that would screw up Australia even worse than they have already done.

  37. How on earth could Melissa Price (fed environment minister) think approving Adani’s groundwater dependant ecosystem management would be OK when the CSIRO Geoscience Aust report contains these paragraphs:

    “The [Adani] plans are set out in order to support the assertion that the Clematis sandstone is the sole source aquifer for the Doongmabulla Springs complex,” the reports found.

    “The information provided … as well as in the public domain is clear that uncertainty still exists in this regard. While the Clematis sandstone may be a principal source aquifer for the springs, based on the information currently available, it is not reasonable to assert that it is the sole source aquifer.

    “Proposed monitoring and management approaches do not sufficiently address the uncertainty regarding potential alternative or additional source aquifers.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/apr/09/adani-coalmine-scientific-reviews-appear-to-give-queensland-trigger-to-block-project

    Morrison’s problems have got even bigger

  38. They [Netflix?] never stopped supporting the DVDs-in-the-mail system, I saw it mentioned just the other day that they still have almost 3 million subscribers using the mailed-out DVDs in the US.

    2.7m people still get Netflix by mail thanks to bad broadband and a great movie selection
    https://thehustle.co/netflix-dvd-streaming/

    Never underestimate the bandwidth of a station wagon full of tapes hurtling down the highway. –- Andrew Tanenbaum, 1981

    https://what-if.xkcd.com/31/

  39. grimace @ #719 Tuesday, April 9th, 2019 – 10:16 pm

    Confessions @ #651 Tuesday, April 9th, 2019 – 7:11 pm

    Jaeger:

    The other part of your problem is Telstra. You should switch to a decent ISP like Aussie Broadband (with thanks to C@t for referring me).

    I’d been with TPG (>10yrs) before moving briefly to Tangerine. Then discovered Aussie Broadband. Easily the best ISP in my opinion. Aussie company that genuinely values good customer relations/satisfaction. They buy enough CVC to keep speeds reliable and fairly constant, & we’ve experienced only one brief ISP related dropout since signing up almost a year ago.

    Aussie based customer & technical services are responsive & most helpful.

    Not cheap & nasty ..not too expensive either. I highly recommend them.

    Check them out against other ISPs here:
    https://www.lifehacker.com.au/2018/05/planhacker-nbn-plans-ranked-by-speed

    ..and here:
    https://www.whistleout.com.au/Broadband/Guides/australia-internet-providers

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