Two post-budget polls are in – Newspoll from The Australian, Ipsos for Nine Newspapers – and they offer contrasting pictures as to whether support for the government has gone up or down in the wake of last week’s budget.
Newspoll produces an encouraging result for the Coalition in showing Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48, rather than 54-46. Ordinarily I would point out that a two-point movement from Newspoll is a rare occurrence, which close observers of the polling industry suspect is down to Newspoll smoothing its numbers with some variety of rolling average, in which the results of the previous poll are combined with those of the latest. However, the last Newspoll was, very unusually, four weeks ago, the delay being down to the New South Wales election a fortnight ago and a desire to hold off until the budget last week. So it would not surprise me if things were different this time, and the result was drawn entirely from this week’s survey, which will have been conducted from Thursday to Sunday (UPDATE: as indeed it was, from a sample of 1799).
The report currently up on The Australian’s website is a bit sketchy, but it tells us the Coalition is up two on the primary vote to 38% and Labor is down two to 37%, with One Nation down one to 6%. Scott Morrison’s approval rating is up three to 46% and Bill Shorten’s is up one to 37%, but there is no word yet on disapproval ratings, preferred prime minister, the Greens primary vote and the sample size. The report also rates the budget has scored the highest since the last Howard government budget in 2007 on impact on personal circumstances and cost of living. Stay tuned for further detail.
UPDATE: The Greens primary vote is steady at 9%; Morrison is down two on disapproval to 43%; Shorten is steady on disapproval at 51%; Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 43-36 to 46-35.
The post-budget Ipsos poll for Nine Newspapers, which is the first since mid-February, records an actual deterioration for the Coalition on the last since last time, albeit that that was an anomalously strong result for the Coalition (the one that had The Australian proclaiming “Morrison’s Tampa moment” across its front page headline). The two-party headline in the poll is 53-47 in favour of Labor, compared with 51-49 last time, which I’m guessing applies to both respondent-allocated and two-party preferred preference measures since the reports don’t specify. Ipsos’s primary votes are as usual on the low side for the major parties and well on the high side for the Greens: the Coalition are down a point to 37%, Labor is steady on 34% and the Greens are steady on 13%. If it might be thought odd that such small primary vote movement should produce a two-point shift on two-party preferred, it would appear that rounding favoured the Coalition last time and Labor this time.
On the budget, the poll finds 38% expecting they would be better off and 24% saying worse off, which is around the same as last year. Forty-one per cent thought it fair and 29% unfair. Leadership ratings are, as usual, more favourable from Ipsos than other pollsters, but otherwise notable in recording increased uncommitted ratings across the board. Scott Morrison records 48% approval and 38% disapproval, both down one from last time; Bill Shorten is is down four on approval to 36% and one on disapproval to 51%; and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 48-38 to 46-35.
Reports on the poll, possibly paywalled, can be found at the Sydney Morning Herald and the Financial Review. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1200.
antonbruckner11 says:
Monday, April 8, 2019 at 10:21 am
What was the gender breakdown?
The last poll, IIRC, had women favouring the Coalition.
I have, today, hung out my shingle denoting my new activity as a fully qualified asterfisisit’n that.
Just last Friday I graduated from the Project Blue Book school of running in circles and attempting to disappear à la the oozlum bird*.
I will be specialising in comforting my imaginary wife (frightened of summat) while helping to build a genuwine plywood Atomic Bomb Shelter. This shelter is for rent at reasonable rates to suitable applicants. BYO furniture and supplies.
Also available (by appointment only) prognostications and precognition courtesy of my in house swami and bwana skilled in the ancient arts of Apep, the serpent god, deification of evil and darkness.
Free taster –
*The oozlum bird is sometimes used as a symbol of self-reference and circular argumentation. For example, author Charles Seife wrote: “Like the mythical oozlum bird, Wikipedia seems to have the ability to fly around in ever decreasing circles until it flies right up its own rectum.”
Time for R & R after mowing. Toodles. 😎☕
Confessions @ #496 Monday, April 8th, 2019 – 10:28 am
Just another brain explosion from the team driving the Morrison caravan. I can’t see how this strategy works for the Libs when Kelly O’Dwyer identified the the Libs vote problem as being due to perceptions the Libs are “homophobic, anti-women, climate-change deniers”.
Confessions @ #496 Monday, April 8th, 2019 – 10:28 am
It’s the new fear campaign, because the one about brown refugees and boat people doesn’t work anymore. The attack is pretty obvious; Labor saying they want more electric cars on the road actually means that “Labor is coming to take away your beloved family cars, utes, and pickup trucks”.
I think it’s likely to be effective as a strategy. Here’s some nonsense that was being shared around in my Facebook feed this morning:
Their list appears to be mostly copied from the list of top-selling cars in Australia, so they’ll be covering probably a solid majority of the cars on the road with those models.
It’s not like they have to scare too many of those people into thinking that Labor actually wants to take their cars away to pick up the few points they need to win the election, and it’s hard to see how they lose anything by trying.
IMO, the Coalition’s full bottle EV campaign is about peeling the Deep Norf of Qld and the Far West of NSW out of the grips of the Shooters and PHON.
As we all know EVs are an existential threat to Ute Man Culture.
They have stopped short of claiming that EVs will make the curtains fade but there have been claims that the lectrics will cause houses to catch fire.
I dunno, it sounds hysterical and completely overblown to me.
If more people use electric vehicles, then petrol will become cheaper…
Sigh, late again… 🙂
Summary thoughts on last night’s Newspoll “disappointment”.
* This blog leans left. Comforting consensus can cause drift.
* 4 weeks is a long interval between polls.
* Polls calibrate perception not reality (the election does that bit).
* 52/48 is the re-calibration.
And seconding the great BK, So with those two poll results Essential will be pf great interest. I’ll pick up on Essential guessing in a bit.
Greensborough Growler @ #477 Monday, April 8th, 2019 – 9:46 am
Sky After Dark Loonies = 59,000+58,000+39,000+36,000 = 192,000 Viewers (probably not unique)
Peppa pig 173,000 (Freeview) +36,000 (PayTV) = 209,000 Viewers (possibly unique viewers)
So a show for kiddie winks about a pig outrates all the FoxTel loonies 😀
The vegan Terror Gangs of Melbourne have thrown down the gauntlet.
Confessions @ #506 Monday, April 8th, 2019 – 10:47 am
It could well be.
However unlike their other attempts it’s not hysterical and overblown in a way that’s blatantly racist, misogynistic, homophobic, totalitarian, or even (directly) climate-change denying (they’re not saying that they like petrol cars or that they don’t like EV’s, just that they don’t want Labor to take away your current car). People get emotional about their cars, and they’re doing a good job of playing that emotion by putting the emphasis on “YOUR CAR”.
I think that makes it more dangerous than, say, the $180 million Christmas Island stunt.
There’s another reason to get into EVs, petrol supplies are drying up. Granted it will take a few years yet, but I read somewhere recently that extraction rates for the Saudi’s main oil field have been dropping sharply and unexpectedly.
shiftaling @ #499 Monday, April 8th, 2019 – 10:35 am
And the Mr Pedantic Award today goes to….
But you’ve made my point. Private Health Insurance covers the practitioners fees so as to explain stuff to you that you can practice for free if you want to. However, people are social animals and would generally prefer to go to a class a couple of times a week, pay for it, and claim it on PHI.
I think it shows how desperate the libs are though that they are running this sort of scare campaign before the election has even started. Patience, grasshopper, patience. They think they’ve got a hell of a lot of ground to make up. These sorts of campaigns work best when voters get hit with it late in the campaign, when they might not get corrective information (e.g. the NSW election)
If anyone wants to add to this please do……
Some questions for Morrison and why is he against ……..
1.Innovation in motor and transport technology.
2.Australian companies developing that technology and selling it to the world
3. Technology that will cut emmissions
4. Technology that will cut health costs by taking from the atmosphere harmful pollution
5.Technology that will enable our cities and suburbs to have no smog.
6.Save Australians thousands in fuel costs per year
7.Denying Australian agriculture access to cheaper and more efficient farming and harvesting equipment powered by renewables
8.Cheaper private and public transport costs
a r:
For me it just reinforces the perception the Liberals are out of touch luddites.
The saintly ScoMo.
That first definition looks a bit sexist 🙁
People vote with the car keys in hands is especially true in middle to outer suburban seats.
A very large cohort have no idea of how to get anywhere by any other means. You have no idea of the looks that I get when I tell people that I like to ride my bike to the train station or all the way to work instead of driving and parking a zillion miles away.
The most recent classic example of this phenomenon was the 2014 Victorian election where the only seats that swung to the Liberal Party were all the ones that would get the benefit of the East-West Link and none of the pain. (Forest Hill, Ringwood, Croydon, etc).
All the other metro seats voted as level crossing removals being more important…
From the ‘I’m a man and I vote!’ files.
Mike Cannon Brooks (CEO of Atlassian) has pinged Angus Taylor for lying via a badly photoshopped attack meme on Bill Shorten:
ike Cannon-Brookes
@mcannonbrookes
Oh man this is gold
@AngusTaylorMP
!
Govt ministers using badly photoshopped meme art as marketing… which becomes promotion.
Most camp sites have power points.
Very few (none?) have petrol pumps?
I know. Camping 2 weeks ago w my son & charged my Tesla overnight on 240V!
😆
The information is freely available online in my experience
So Ad Man from Mad Men tells us terrorist vegans are going to be locked up as are those who cheat in Exams
So that is what Christmas Island is all about
ScoMo going for the tradie vote, wearing Hi-vis everyday?
Fozzie Logic @ #517 Monday, April 8th, 2019 – 11:07 am
I chose to use this one, with no harm intended:
Termagant or Tervagant was the name given to a god which Christians believed Muslims worshipped. The word is also used in modern English to mean a violent, overbearing, turbulent, brawling, quarrelsome woman; a virago, shrew, vixen. Wikipedia
No age implied.
So I would like it very much if you didn’t try and impute it. 🙂
shiftaling @ #521 Monday, April 8th, 2019 – 11:10 am
My experience is that people want to learn about it first hand from a qualified instructor.
can some journo remind scumo that his party’s policy is 30-50% of new car sales to to be EV by 2030.
He really is a dickhead of the highest order – no wonder he failed as an ad man for tourism australia, he thinks he is slick, but he’s just slimy.
Picking up on Boerwar’s comment, “As we all know EVs are an existential threat to Ute Man Culture.” Morrison is going after the bloke vote. His stunts are about (and for) the manly Aussie dad. (At the pool, at the footy, at the weekend, …)
Essential guesses so far.
PB-Guess:Essential 2019-04-09
PB median: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
PB mode: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
PB mean: ALP 53.4 to 46.6 LNP
No. Of PB Respondents: 52
ALP / LNP
54 / 46 (?)andy Murray
53 / 47 a r *until the election
54 / 46 Al Pal
53 / 47 Andrew_Earlwood
52 / 48 BK
53 / 47 booleanbach
54 / 46 briefly
53 / 47 chinda63
52 / 48 Confessions
54.7239618 / 45.2760382 Dan Gulberry *permanent
55 / 45 Davidwh
54 / 46 EB *permanent
54 / 46 Fozzie Logic *permanent
53 / 47 Frednk *permanent
54 / 46 Fulvio Sammut
54 / 46 Gecko
53 / 47 Goll
54 / 46 grimace
53 / 47 Harry “Snapper” Organs
55 / 45 HaveAchat
54 / 46 ItzaDream
53 / 47 j341983
53 / 47 John Reidy
53 / 47 JohnCee
57 / 43 KayJay *all next polls
53 / 47 klasib
53 / 47 lefty e
52 / 48 Marcos De Feilittt
53 / 47 Matt31
53 / 47 Mavis Davis
53 / 47 max
53 / 47 Mr Ed
53 / 47 Outsider
55 / 45 pica
53 / 47 Player One
53 / 47 Quasar *perpetuity
55 / 45 Question *until the election
53 / 47 Red13
55 / 45 rhwombat
54 / 46 Scott
51 / 49 Sgh1969
56 / 44 Simon² Katich® *eternal
54 / 46 Sohar
53 / 47 sonar *permanent
53 / 47 steve davis
53 / 47 The Silver Bodgie
53 / 47 Tricot *any polls
53 / 47 Victoria
53 / 47 Whisper
53 / 47 Work To Rule
53 / 47 Yabba
51 / 49 Zoidlord
If there a single Ute Man out there who votes Labor?
As someone who has recently spent 4 years as a grey nomad, will it be possible to tow a caravan with an electric vehicle. I know the current policy will mean petrol vehicles will still be available, but wondered what current nomads will make of this policy. I would say up to a third of nomads we met were pensioners and fuel costs a very important part of the budget.
Steve777 @ #419 Monday, April 8th, 2019 – 8:20 am
The numbers you are doing your calculations from are all rounded before you started. I believe Newspoll’s calc will be done on ‘raw’ numbers, with at least one decimal point, and they will report the final numbers for 2PP after rounding the outcome of the calculation. Quoting your intermediate and final numbers to 1 decimal point, when they are based on rounded whole numbers is, frankly, mathematically inept.
Says the party that axed weekend penalty rates.
Scare.scare,scare,scare.The Aussie public are dumb if they fall for this.
Steve 777 (@7.58).
It was ever thus, at least in my adult lifetime.
Prof. David Butler, Oxford (?) psephologist began visiting Australia for election campaigns in the 1960s. Accustomed to the broad principles of British parties in their campaign manifestoes, he expressed surprise that the campaign opening speeches of Australian political leaders read as if they were addressed to a hypothetical voter in suburban Adelaide, who sat with a pen and paper calculating the personal profit and loss of the two major parties promises.
Single Ute Man? This dude…
Assantdj @ #531 Monday, April 8th, 2019 – 11:21 am
Generally, yes. For small to medium caravans anyways.
“Toyota HiLux braked* towing capacity starts from 2500kg”
“Tesla Model X braked* towing capacity starts from 2250kg”
While I’m poking my head above the wall I’d like to express my gratitude to BK for his morning roundup. We often found ourselves in areas with no internet and as soon as we stopped somewhere I could hook up my husband knew to keep the coffee while I caught up on the world using the roundup as my guide. So once again BK thanks for helping me maintain my sanity.
😆
Liberal senator Ian Macdonald just called The Australian “the left-wing media” in #estimates.
If there a single Ute Man out there who votes Labor?
They all sniff petrol & vote Country Party
Glad I could be of assistance Assantdj.
It will be interesting to see how the labor reaction to the Morrison rant on EV policy unfolds.
So far, it has been all ridicule and “ who cares “.
I will watch with interest to see if there are any changes in rhetoric or approach by Shorten and co.
I still think labor will have a lot more to say on this subject during the campaign. Atm, it seems like a bit of “ come in spinner “ approach from labor.
We shall see.
Whatever happens in this space there will be a lot more important policy areas flowing through. It is a long long long time for Morrison to keep on ranting on about some target for 2030.
Wind farms will make up a third of Tasmanias power generation:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2019-04-08/beef-farmers-tasmania-wind-farm-dreams-reality/10976378
a r @ #26070 Monday, April 8th, 2019 – 10:44 am
Ah – the perverted love that dare not speak it’s name after Christchurch. What my daughter calls Dirty Dick Cars (ie 4WDs) are the new guns.
BK is a better newspaper editor than most!
This shows just how f’ed up is our emissions reductions debate is. No journalist should give this any time of day. A short and sharp ‘with all due respect sir/madam, that is full of sh!t’.
And every voter who hears it, no matter their political leanings, should also say the same. And every politician who tries to make political capital out of it should hang their heads in shame.
We are talking about trying to get to 50% of NEW cars being electric in 2030. 50% of NEW CARS FFS… and in 10 years time. So even in 10 years time you can still go out and buy a petrol or diesel Hilux. Knock yourself out and buy a Dodge. Or two.
Dumb debate by morally corrupt politicians targeted at compliant jounros selling to rusted on idiots.
And yes, I own a Hilux.
Just tuned into ABC24 for the latest and their factcheck found Bill Shorten to be misleading on Aged Care funding claims against the Govt.
Not a good look scaring our senior community with ‘misleading’ comments.
Electric vehicles should end up being quite good for towing, because electric motors have a very flat torque curve, producing large torque right from zero rpm.
Victoria:
You aren’t the only one wondering about Trump’s mental health state.
https://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/entry/trump-mental-health-pre-dementia_n_5ca51ea2e4b0409b0ec32806
this attack ad is much less effective 🙂