Reflecting its confidence about its prospects in Victoria, Labor has traded in its existing prospect for the seat of Higgins, Josh Spiegel, for a higher profile model in the shape of barrister Fiona McLeod. That’s all I really have to relate at the moment, but a new federal politics and general discussion thread is required, and here it is. Note the new Brexit post from Adrian Beaumont below this one and, naturally, the latest New South Wales election post above.
A May 11 election would need to be called by Tuesday April 9.
briefly and imacca
Thanks for that interesting feedback on the phone calling process.
On an only slightly related matter, I’ve been reflecting a bit lately on the sometimes controversial links between the ALP and the unions, and especially on the structured influence the unions have within the party. I’ve never been a member of any union or any political party, but my increasing impression is that the ALP benefits from the union link, in that it provides a degree of what might be called ideological ballast, discouraging a tendency for the party to drift off to the edge of the earth in the way the Liberals have done, as their membership becomes more atypical of the broader community. Unions these days aren’t that ideological any more, and they want to be associated with winning, so are likely to act as a brake on tectonic shifts. (Of course that wasn’t true in the Hartley-Crawford days prior to federal intervention in Victoria, but that’s ancient history now.)
Again, I’d be interested in any thoughts on this.
Watching the Morrison and Waleed interview and came across this:
Morrison: As Malcolm used to say ‘domestic violence starts with disrespect of women…
Waleed: (interjecting)..but not all disrespect leads to violence.
https://tenplay.com.au/channel-ten/the-project/2019/3/21-6016390828001
3min50
Seems that both Morrison and Waleed were well aware that this was a Malcolmism.
Pedant @ #353 Friday, March 22nd, 2019 – 9:40 pm
Don’t you think the coal related unions have an ‘ideological’ leaning that the majority of voters wouldn’t be aligned with…?
Occasio-Cortez is on the front cover of Time Magazine this month.
Steve777 @ 9.35pm
Actually I think an 11 May election would require the writs to be issued by Monday 8 April. Section 156 of the Electoral Act states that “the date fixed for the nomination of the candidates shall not be less than 10 days …. AFTER [emphasis added] the date of the writ. So the earliest nomination date if writs are issued on 8 April is 18 April. Then section 157 of the Act states that “The date fixed for the polling shall not be less than 23 days … AFTER [emphasis added] the date of nomination.” If nominations close on 18 April, 11 May is exactly the 23rd day thereafter. If the writs aren’t issued until 9 April, 11 May is missed, and the next possible day is 18 May.
If the Libs win tomorrow I expect Scott will go straight away.
He’ll think he can win…
Rex Douglas @ 9.45 pm
“Don’t you think the coal related unions have an ‘ideological’ leaning that the majority of voters wouldn’t be aligned with…?”
That’s an interesting question, but I would have thought not. My guess is that they support coal mining because having jobs in coal mining is in the short-term interests of their members. I don’t see that as ideological, not least because it probably doesn’t correlate with a broader conservative ideology. (For example, I’ve not heard of the coal related unions having a particular issue with other broadly “progressive” themes such as support for marriage equality and so on. Of course, the Shoppies might.) On the other hand, the support for coal mining that one sees in the comments pages in The Australian or in magazines like Quadrant IS, to me, ideological and indeed tribal: it doesn’t necessarily reflect the personal interests of the commentators or writers, and is heavily correlated with an agenda driven by a perceived need to oppose anything “progressive” (or, as they would likely put it, reflective of “cultural Marxism”.)
michael @ #350 Friday, March 22nd, 2019 – 9:34 pm
Bullshit, Gladys.
ABBA = Any Bastard But Abbott.
Campaigning NSW style. The current Liberal PM, also from NSW need not apply for photo shoots.
Cud Chewer says:
Friday, March 22, 2019 at 5:08 pm
https://infrastructure.gov.au/rail/publications/high-speed-rail-study-reports/files/HSR_Phase_2_Chapter_5.pdf
See figure 5-32
I hope the rest of the report is better thought out. All Southern Cross platforms are fully utilized with trains often waiting for a platform. Can’t just say your going to move the platform 2 to 5 services to the rest of the station.
Platform 1 could be extended, it is currently the line with the duel gauge track. For example the Sydney XP service and the overland use it.
SilentMajority @ 9.58 pm
Even if the Liberals win tomorrow, it won’t necessarily be clear for a few days that that has been the case: there are plenty of pre-poll votes to count, and probably plenty of preferences to be distributed to determine the results in close seats, with unknown exhaustion rates under optional preferential voting.
Confessions @ 10.02 pm
In 1960, the Democrats had a famous poster of Richard Nixon with the caption “Would you buy a used car from this man?”. See here: https://www.alamy.com/stock-photo-anti-nixon-poster-1960-nwould-you-buy-a-used-car-from-this-man-american-95556418.html
I was only musing the other day what effect it might have on the election if the ALP were to blanket the polling booths with a similar poster featuring Mr Morrison.
nath @ #353 Friday, March 22nd, 2019 – 8:43 pm
I thought what Malcolm used to say was that “not all disrespect of women leads to violence, but all violence against women starts with disrespect”. In which case Waleed should have just kept quiet and let Morrison mangle it further.
a r
says:
I thought what Malcolm used to say was that “not all disrespect of women leads to violence, but all violence against women starts with disrespect”. In which case Waleed should have just kept quiet and let Morrison mangle it further.
_________________________________
well yes it was a mangle but my point was that both recognised that the turn of phrase was frequently used by MT.
Morrison has been absent the whole NSW campaign.
Pedant, the unions play a very important role, but they are not monolithic. They align in various ways on the whole range of issues. Of course, they’re able to use their strength to manage the official positions in the party. This gives the party stability in its personnel and its finances and supports organisational depth. But they also encourage ordinary members – encourage recruitment, participation, involvement in policy development and as candidates and volunteers. These members have real influence as well. The party sets out to empower the rank and file. This is necessary for political success.
Unions are always concerned about jobs, incomes, working conditions and other hip-pocket issues. But their interest is far from confined to these things. They are voices – independently summoned voices – for all kinds of policies and modernist values. The unions are more than Labor. And Labor is more than the unions. But they are also co-dependent. This tends to make them inseparable and forces them to work together in the democratic environment. This in itself is a great tempering force. It constrains everything, both inside Labor and the unions.
It also means that Labor is organised to ‘listen’ to its components – to workers, to voters – and to represent them on the issues that matter to them. In this respect, labor is not self-absorbed. It is outwardly facing. This is in contrast to the other parties, who take a far more aggressive/ideological approach to campaigning.
briefly @ 10.24pm
Thanks for those interesting comments. The contrast becomes ever more striking when one looks at the USA, and sees how an extreme insurgent group has really taken over the Republican Party – helped of course by the primary system. (I’ve also been struck by how talk about the benefits of possibly having primaries in Australia seems to have faded as the example of the US comes to look ever more horrible.)
briefly
If it’s May 11th I’ve been sold a pup!
I am fairly confident via indirect means of May 18th.
Pity there’s not a betting market on it – though maybe the bookies would be wary of the party making the decision doing a bit of ‘insider trading’!
Basically the Federal campaign starts in earnest next Monday.
One week of selected releases of budget ‘good news’ stories, which are always hard to match or counter as they are not in writing.
Then budget week, with or without another Barnaby Joyce Spectacular.
Then election called I think on April 8th or 9th for May 18th. There is no point delaying announcement past April 9th because the election must be on May 18th once you get to that date.
So in fact nearly 40 days of campaigning.
If there is no majority in NSW, then the period where one or both sides are negotiating to form governmment would come essentially in the middle of the federal campaign, and all potential deals would be somewhat magnified by the lens of national politics.
Pedant, I was given some very sage advice a long time ago by a very successful and much-revered union official from WA. He said everything in Labor- in the unions and in political Labor – started and finished with listening. He’s right.
Rockets…18 May has been the working date. The 11th was hinted at…
I will be shocked if its not 18 May. Thats the last possible date for a Double House Election, Morrison was never going any earlier.
briefly @ 10.51pm
Indeed. Mr Morrison doesn’t strike me as a good listener.
michael @ 10.58pm
I’m not sure that 18 May really is the last possible date. In 2016 polling day was 2 July and the Senate counts were all completed by 4 August, with the final House and Senate writs then returned on 8 August. So if that timetable could be replicated 25 May could just be feasible, thought that would be cutting it fine and I’m sure the AEC would prefer 11 or 18 May.
Wikipedia have changed that as well. I was wrong the 25 May is a chance and is definitely the last day for a senate/house election.
Pedant, I think the primary system is good for testing ideas and candidates, but it’s very resource-intense. There’s neither time nor money to spare…and there are more efficient ways to test both ideas and would-be candidates…I used to think it would be worth trying. But I reckon it’d be more trouble than it’d be worth…
A petition calling for Article 50 to be revoked and Brexit cancelled has attracted more than three million signatures.
The milestone, reached by midday on Friday, came less than 48 hours after the petition was created.
It has become the fastest growing petition ever created on parliament’s petition website despite the service crashing several times on Thursday, apparently unable to cope with demand as people voiced their discontent for Theresa May’s plans for the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-news-live-theresa-may-no-deal-revoke-article-50-petition-delay-a8834621.html
The rational thing to do is have the election on 11 May – the first practical date. The longer the campaign, the greater will be the chances for things to go wrong, for challengers to incumbents to work; the more money will be needed. If Morrison had been savvy, the election would have been in February….or even in December.
briefly
I wonder if the UK Parliament will employ the same methods as they used to count the 1848 Chartists’ Petition signatures (without computers!).
https://www.parliament.uk/about/living-heritage/transformingsociety/electionsvoting/chartists/case-study/the-right-to-vote/the-chartists-and-birmingham/1842-and-1848-chartist-petitions/
One of spouse’s ancestors got transported to this fair land for their part in that outbreak of democracy!
Don’t agree. Obviously since August 2018, the Coalition will lose no matter when the election is called. You govern as long as possible and hope a miracle happens. Morrison is not the first and won’t be the last to go to the last possible date as they could be in opposition for some time.
Although the 1832 Reform Act expanded the electorate by over 50%, it only extended the franchise to the middle classes, and did not grant representation to the working classes. Before its passage, the reform movement had been characterised by cooperation between the middle and working classes, but much middle class support disappeared once they had received representation.
The 1834 Poor Law Act, which was viewed as an attack on the working class, was another factor leading to the formation of a new movement for Parliamentary reform. For more information about the Poor Law Act please see the Living Heritage page about the Act and its provisions.
In 1836, a group of London artisans formed the London Working Men’s Association. Two members of the group, the self-taught radicals William Lovett and Francis Place, in consultation with the other members, drew up the People’s Charter which had six aims:
1. Universal manhood suffrage
Voting by secret ballot
Payment for MPs
No property qualification for MPs
Equal electoral districts
Annual elections to Parliament
These aims had already been foreshadowed by the Birmingham Political Union and other movements for reform, but the People’s Charter was a document which had massive popular appeal. A working class movement based on its demands arose, known as the Chartists. There were Chartists all over the country, including many in Birmingham.
They were not making calls for social and economic reform – they felt that once they achieved their Parliamentary reforms, they would be able to elect a Parliament which would pass the further reforms they wanted.
https://www.parliament.uk/about/living-heritage/transformingsociety/electionsvoting/chartists/case-study/the-right-to-vote/the-chartists-and-birmingham/the-chartists/
michael says:
Friday, March 22, 2019 at 11:35 pm
Don’t agree.
Morrison has put his own interests first…not a surprise…
frednk
Didn’t they fairly recently add platforms 15-16 to Southern Cross station and move a bunch of country services to there?
Rubbish, the longer the unions and the CFMEU are kept away from the finances, the better it is. Morrison governing for as long as possible is fine with Coalition voters before a tax and spend system is put in place.
“He said everything in Labor- in the unions and in political Labor – started and finished with listening. He’s right.”
Yup. The thing with organizing as a union delegate or official in the workplace is that is ALL about grassroots politics. Often when people are worried about matters immediately and directly affecting themselves and their families. It is not easy to build and hold consensus among a group of employees during IR troubles, particularly now days with the Fair Work act as it is where employers can get away with a lot of very worker unfriendly crap if they chose to spend millions of $ on legal fees ….as my employer did not so long ago. We got through it by sticking together and keeping enough of the core together to influence matters. Not the outcome we wanted but did the best we could with the circumstances we had.
The influence of the unions on the ALP is significant, but, the two groups have tensions. As is i think, completely proper and useful. They have different roles in our society.
Yup, a lot of people in the ALP have union roots. And that’s a good thing because it puts people in the ALP who are more likely to be oriented towards making society better for for the bulk of the electorate, not just the elites. That’s because they are grounded in real grassroots politics, not boardroom politics.
My 2c worth anyway. 🙂
briefly you’re assuming Scomo and the Libs will act rationally.
I always think that Britain missed an opportunity in 1848 – maybe they could have even dumped the monarchy (again, and once and for all). It was such a momentous year in Europe.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revolutions_of_1848
One thing I am looking forward to is the Budget Reply speech. One thing that attracted me to Shorten was his brilliant performance giving the 2014 Budget Reply.
In 1836, a group of London artisans formed the London Working Men’s Association. Two members of the group, the self-taught radicals William Lovett and Francis Place, in consultation with the other members, drew up the People’s Charter which had six aims:
____________________________________
I wonder how many members of the Parliamentary Labor Party ever worked as artisans, or ever worked a menial job.
Cud….they are going to get a hiding. They know it. They should be trying to save seats…the longer they wait, the more they will lose. But you’re right. They’re not rational. They’re scared. They’re making lots of mistakes.
They have been going to be hammered for the past 7 months. Why would you go early, to please some left wing voters. The most important thing is to govern, there has not been a poll since Aug 2018 to give reason to go early. The fact you don’t like Morrison going as long as possible indicates he is doing the right thing as you are a Labor supporter.
“Rubbish, the longer the unions and the CFMEU are kept away from the finances, the better it is. Morrison governing for as long as possible is fine with Coalition voters before a tax and spend system is put in place.”
The current government has quadrupled the deficit and thrown billions around with absolutely no due process both inside and outside Australia. The Medellin Cartel would show more financial probity than this mob.
Pedant says:
Friday, March 22, 2019 at 11:10 pm
2016 was a double dissolution election so the normal rules don’t count.
Of note there the terms were back dated to 1/6/2016 which is why we need a Senate election no later than May. 🙂
Here we go. If the Rudd/Gillard/Rudd disaster hadn’t been thrown out, our finances would be worst than Venezuela. It takes time to clean up a mess left by the incompetent Swan, spending was out of control in 2013, its taken nearly 6 years but we will have a surplus shortly before Shorten comes in and destroys the joint again and we go round the merry-go-round again. Labor creates a mess, and the Coalition always have to come in clean it up.
Bill Shorten has promised to work co-operatively and constructively with business, pledging that he will not be a “handmaiden” for trade unions if Labor wins the federal election in May.
In a rare sit-down newspaper interview, the Opposition Leader said he had strong pro-business policies and rejected criticism from lobby groups that he propagates class warfare or subscribes to the politics of envy.
“They’re wrong,” Mr Shorten told The Weekend Australian. “I talk to hundreds of businesses. I can’t open the door without business people wanting to come to talk to me, and they’re not all of that mind. We’ve got some very good initiatives for business.”
He outlined a range of policies that he said had attracted strong business support, especially from small and medium-sized enterprises, such as matching the government’s corporate tax cuts, boosting apprenticeships, accelerated tax deductions for investment, backing new mining exploration and providing certainty with a new energy and climate change policy.
Barney in Vinh Long @ 12:05 am
A few points.
(1) Current senators’ terms were backdated to start on 1 July 2016, not 1 June 2016.
(2) The fact that 2016 was a double dissolution indeed meant that there wasn’t a fixed constitutional deadline for the election to be completed. There was, however, a looming issue of timing: under section 64 of the Constitution there is a limit of three months beyond which a minister cannot serve without being a member of the Parliament. The 45th Parliament had been dissolved on 9 May 2016, so the “three month” issue would have been enlivened on 9 August.
(3) The Senate count can be expected to take a bit longer for a double dissolution than a half Senate election, though the use by the AEC of optical character recognition to capture Senate preferences has made the difference less significant than in bygone days when handling the larger double dissolution ballot paper manually could be a real pain.
Yes, in 2013.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regional_Rail_Link
Thanks Jaeger