In an off week in the fortnightly cycle of Newspoll and Essential Research, and no Ipsos poll overnight in Nine Newspapers, it looks like poll junkies will have to make do with New South Wales this week. We do have a poll of Senate voting intention from The Australia Institute, encompassing by Dynata from 2019 voters through February and March, which has Labor on 33%, the Coalition on 28%, the Greens on 12% and One Nation on 8%, from which a post-election outcome is projected of 30 to 32 seats for the Coalition, 28 to 29 seats for Labor, eight to nine seats for the Greens, four to five seats for the One Nation, two to three for the Centre Alliance, one for Australian Conservatives, and possibly one for Derryn Hinch, Jacqui Lambie or Tasmanian independent Craig Garland. The poll was the subject of a paywalled report in the Financial Review, and a full report featuring detailed breakdowns will shortly be available on The Australia Institute’s website.
Other than that, some recent preselection developments to relate:
• Last week’s Liberal preselection to choose a successor to Julie Bishop in Curtin was won by Celia Hammond, former University of Notre Dame vice-chancellor, who secured victory in the first round with 51 votes out of 82. The only other competitive contender was Anna Dartnell, an executive for resources company Aurizon, who received 28 votes. Erin Watson-Lynn, who was said to have been favoured by Bishop, received only one vote, after receiving substantial unhelpful publicity for past social media comments critical of the Liberal Party. It has been widely suggested that Hammond’s socially conservative views make her an ill fit for the electorate, which recorded a 72% yes vote in the same-sex marriage referendum – hoping to take advantage of the situation is Louise Stewart, who established a chain of health care clinics, and identifies as a moderate and “independent Liberal”.
• Andrew Potts of the Gold Coast Bulletin reports eight candidates have nominated for the preselection to succeed Steve Ciobo as the Liberal National Party candidate in Moncrieff, which is expected to be held in a few weeks. Gold Coast councillor Cameron Caldwell is reckoned to be the frontrunner, with other candidates including Karly Abbott, a staffer to Ciobo, and Fran Ward, a “local businesswoman”.
• Labor has preselected Cressida O’Hanlon, a family dispute resolution practitioner, as its candidate for the Adelaide seat of Sturt, which will be vacated with the retirement of Christopher Pyne. The Liberal preselection will be held on Saturday – the presumed front-runner, James Stevens, is backed by Pyne and other factional moderates, and faces opposition from two conservatives, Joanna Andrew and Deepa Mathew.
• The Country Liberal Party in the Northern Territory has preselected Sam McMahon, a Katherine-based veterinarian, out of a field of 12 to succeed the retiring Nigel Scullion as its Senate candidate.
martini henry
False equivalence.
guytaur says:
Monday, March 18, 2019 at 11:49 am
No, they witnessed an assault and were within their rights to restrain the perpetrator, a citizen’s arrest.
The only question I see is, did they overstep those rights with the amount of force they used?
On the use of violence, including egging….
It’s a very bad idea to use violence against the White Supremacist/Racist Anning or his supporters. Violence is wrong in itself. However in this case, it is necessarily political – it is violence-as-statement. Political violence is exactly what the atrocities in Christchurch are.
For another thing, the Right actually believe in violence as a legitimate political device and they welcome violence directed at them. This not only legitimises their own tactics (in their eyes), it opens the way for further outrage, further provocation. It’s absolutely necessary to refrain from disputing with the Right on their own terms. Apart from anything else, because the Right subscribe to violence, they will use it again and again; and they will escalate its intensity. It is imperative to oppose the Right without using violence.
Furthermore, it’s worth remembering that the violence of Christchurch is essentially copying behaviour. The perpetrator has copied the conspicuous cruelty – the exemplary punishment – meted out by the State to the innocent on Nauru and Manus and to indigenous prisoners in the lockups and gaols of this country. It echoes the politically-driven cancellation of citizenship and the arbitrary deportations carried out by the Australian authorities over recent years.
Cruelty, revenge, humiliation, defilement…these are public policy here. The shooter simply lacks the protection of crown privileges.
Finally, it’s necessary to read political violence in the context of efforts to denounce and obtain the repeal of parts of the RDA. The provisions of the RDA are intended to protect the vulnerable from the violence that is inherent in racism. The campaign for repeal of 18c is a campaign for permission to use racist violence. It is not about “free speech” any more than the atrocities in Christchurch are about peace and harmony.
Zoomster
I have argued for a Bill of Rights. Free speech is one of them but like the EU there must be restrictions that allows the German response to Nazis post WWII
Hate speech needs to have legislation to circumvent it. Just like we don’t let people yell “fire” in a theatre.
sprocket_ @ #199 Monday, March 18th, 2019 – 11:53 am
“No John, this is the campaign bus. The bus to the bingo hall doesn’t leave till noon. I’ll make sure you get a place”.
mh
“am i the only one who has noticed that the people on here who claim to abhor violence in all its forms are the ones advocating that it is o.k as long as it is perpetrated against the “right” target?”
I noticed this too. But here’s the thing. I’m one of those who think it’s okay to perpetrate the egging of Nazis. Why? Coz they’re Nazis.
sprocket_ @ #199 Monday, March 18th, 2019 – 8:53 am
What, none of the passersby had any eggs?
If the people that piled on the Eggboy were acting as Anning’s security, would they not need some personal identification and be registered and trained in crowd control methods.
Channel 7 hypocrites:
https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/sunrise-admits-paying-pauline-hanson-for-regular-appearances-in-lead-up-to-the-election/news-story/3509f5d399f9d49f8b7cddb9db329888
Sadly, Anning will now get many more than 19 primary votes at the coming election. He won’t get a quota, but in Queensland he will get thousands of votes. He knows from Hanson, that bigotry plays well in Queensland
Dutton and Morrison must be fuming that their race card election campaign will backfire in the civilised south – if they try this, they can kiss goodbye to many Vic and SA seats, as well as inner city WA, NSW and Qld seats. The pain will not be worth the gain of holding red-neck seats in Qld and NSW.
Labor can just say “This is from the Anning playbook, adn we know where this leads” if the LNP run with their fear campaign.
which means, the government has nothing to run on.
more resignations to come before the election, and yet more after the electoral wipe out.
@mckinnon_a tweets
On multiple occasions in the last few years, the ABC – by far our most trusted journalistic institution – has uncritically broadcast the views of convicted far-right extremists like Blair Cottrell, and open neo-Nazi sympathisers like Milo Yiannopoulos.
The power we have over shaping our country’s public discourse is absolutely enormous, and we regularly treat that immense responsibility – and privilege – without a fraction of the care and thought it deserves. We have repeatedly failed the trust society places in us.
Thanks, corrected.
No freedom for the enemies of freedom.
sustainable future @ #210 Monday, March 18th, 2019 – 11:58 am
I reckon so. I believe hundreds of egg farmers are now campaigning for him.
guytaur
The problem with a Bill of Rights is that it can entrench attitudes which seemed progressive/reasonable at the time but which, a hundred years on, can prevent change.
The most glaring example is, of course, America’s right to bear arms – probably perfectly reasonable in its original context, but incredibly damaging now.
@Politics_PR tweets (US Democrat support account
Disgusting -> President Erdogan Uses New Zealand Mosque Shooting Footage in Turkey Campaign. The footage was apparently used to galvanise his base ahead of local elections. http://j.mp/2OabrDX https://twitter.com/Politics_PR/status/1107447412824535040/photo/1
solwolf says:
Monday, March 18, 2019 at 11:59 am
No freedom for the enemies of freedom.
This could be from a far-right canto….or a pop-Left picnic….
The destruction of freedom will follow from the use of political violence. That is the basic reason it is employed.
Zoomster
That old canard. The problem has always been with the current day courts interpretation of what a militia is.
Thats a uniquely US problem and does not apply to things like the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and is no argument against a Bill of Rights as every Western country except Australia has.
How is egging someone deplatfoming them ? If anything it’s the opposite in this case.
Given the platform he is pushing, which relies on an image of the authoritarian strongman of yore, with uniformed and disciplined muscle backing him up, a shaggy-haired teenager waltzing in and cracking an egg on the back of his head does do a bit to humiliate him and remove the facade.
Arguing with these farks does nothing because there is no common ground. Any statements you make to them are parsed through a completely different set of basic beliefs and presented back to their followers in a form that only reinforces their beliefs.
This is what ideology does. It’s what all ideology does. However, when there is little-to-no common ground between ideologies, then mocking, humiliation and reduction to a side-show are one of the only ways to counter them.
The thing is, over and above this comment on ideology in general, most ideologies are not based on eugenics and lebensraum. Personally, for this case, I’m happy to include a bit of physical humiliation and vandalism in the list of reasonable actions. It might not be legal, but what they are promoting is so far from ethical that a bit of law-breaking, and egg-breaking, is necessary. Physical attacks resulting in actual harm are never justified. But the facade is all intellectual backing they have, so this is what you have to attack.
Some of you are going to have opinions that differ to me.
P1,
Do you reckon the collective name for a group of Egg Farmers is a ‘Scramble”?
guytaur
Only if you get bogged down with the example, and ignore the actual argument.
Of course Anning will receive more votes this time as he’ll be the lead candidate on whatever Group he is associated with.
Anning got to Parliament on Hansen’s coat tails.
With a threshold of nearly 15% and no preference buddies, he has no chance in the coming election.
zoomster
Thats what those that use the bogeyman of the US gun laws as an argument against a Bill of Rights are doing.
Greensborough Growler says:
Monday, March 18, 2019 at 12:08 pm
Wouldn’t that depend on their level of confusion? 🙂
Greensborough Growler @ #220 Monday, March 18th, 2019 – 9:08 am
More importantly, how often do they get laid?
Andy Murray says: Monday, March 18, 2019 at 12:08 pm
How is egging someone deplatfoming them ? If anything it’s the opposite in this case.
Given the platform he is pushing, which relies on an image of the authoritarian strongman of yore, with uniformed and disciplined muscle backing him up, a shaggy-haired teenager waltzing in and cracking an egg on the back of his head does do a bit to humiliate him and remove the facade.
****************************************
I just wonder Andy if the egging had not occurred – would Anning have even been on the Sunday news ????? ….. he has just been made into a bigger Redneck hero to those in Jerkwater towns all around Australia ….
……. and like Briefly has said earlier – For another thing, the Right actually believe in violence as a legitimate political device and they welcome violence directed at them. This not only legitimises their own tactics (in their eyes), it opens the way for further outrage, further provocation.
Eggsit?
One of the things to consider about #eggboy is the effect it would have on the targets of Anning’s hate.
I imagine it has done quite a bit to release the stress, and may even have helped them feel more included.
Dan,
And, can a souffle rise twice?
Ante Meridian says:
Monday, March 18, 2019 at 11:44 am
beguiledagain,
Technically, an election for the House Of Representatives can be held as late as 2nd of November.
An election for the Senate must be held (legally) before 1st July. Due to practical considerations of the time it takes to count the votes, the latest date is either the 18th May or the 25th, depending on who you listen to (most say the 18th).
-0-
Thank you Ante.
What are the down sides to hanging on, having the mono Senate election and then running out the clock to November 2. I assume there would be the danger of losing Senate seats.
Is that completely unrealistic?
They would have to meet Parliament in their minority situation at some time before November. I understand the government has control of the Parliamentary sitting calendar.
Is a May election their best means of saving the furniture?
Greensborough Growler @ #220 Monday, March 18th, 2019 – 12:08 pm
Perhaps an “omelette” of egg farmers?
Question
Laine Sainty tweeted yesterday it made the day of one of the muslim kids who goes to a mosque just outside of the ChristChurch hospital.
Well there you go. Egging for social cohesion! 🙂
PhoenixRed
“……. and like Briefly has said earlier – For another thing, the Right actually believe in violence as a legitimate political device and they welcome violence directed at them.”
Oh please. It was an egg held by a teenage boy.
Why do we treat Nazi supporters different to ISIS supporters?
One problem with a charter of rights is when you start to advocate for certain actions.
All actions have consequences, not all of these are agreeable to the Society, so they are not absolute.
Given Morrison has said an election will occur in May, I’m guessing the election will be held in May.
Sure, he could hold out. But, given all the Libs in the Departure Lounge already, they might vote a loss of Confidence in the Government as a parting gesture of love for Morrison and install Shorten as PM before he calls the election anyways.
The Guardian has been pushing the claim from Berejiklian, Abbott and Howard that NSW Labor is somehow in bed with SFF, and will therefore dilute gun laws, just because they have done a pref deal with SFF.
Seriously?!
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/mar/18/john-howard-says-gun-control-at-risk-over-nsw-labor-deal-with-shooters-party
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/mar/17/nsw-gun-laws-berejiklian-attacks-labor-over-deal-with-shooters-party
No comments allowed on either article.
Pity the Guardian doesn’t give a link to its own article in 2016 showing the very real dilution backed by the LNP gov’t.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/oct/19/adler-shotgun-new-south-wales-deputy-premier-backs-lifting-ban-on-imports
Barney
Look at how courts have costed Trump politically over his attempts to vilify muslims over immigration.
If we had a Bill of Rights in place the rise of white nationalism in this country encouraged by Howard on would have had some political cost and the debate would have been very different.
Because it is OK to be white.
If the egger is now EggBoy, does that make Anning, Egghead? 🙂
Good question. I can’t tell the difference.
Apparently, Anning had no trouble with the egg white. But, drew the line at the coloured yolk.
Hi phoenixRED,
I just wonder Andy if the egging had not occurred – would Anning have even been on the Sunday news ????? ….. he has just been made into a bigger Redneck hero to those in Jerkwater towns all around Australia
I think he would have been, on the back of other responses to his media release.
And it’s not like he hasn’t already built a profile in right-wing circles with is earlier outrageous statements.
……. and like Briefly has said earlier – For another thing, the Right actually believe in violence as a legitimate political device and they welcome violence directed at them. This not only legitimises their own tactics (in their eyes), it opens the way for further outrage, further provocation.
Except that this was a shaggy-haired, gangly-limbed teenager cracking an egg (in a reasonably gentle way, all things considered) on the guy’s head, despite all the tough guys around.
The tough guys were embarrassed by this – did you see the way they responded? It showed them for what they are, useless bullies. This did nothing to legitimise the goons’ use of violence. If anything it showed its impotence.
guytaur says:
Monday, March 18, 2019 at 12:23 pm
😆
Isn’t the US the source of much, if not most of this hatred?
Their Bill of rights doesn’t seem to have helped much!
You don’t egg Anning.
You egg the things around him – the podium he is on, the flags, the coats of arms. The symbols.
You lampoon his goons. Preferably with an all-female crew.
Now to check the share price of the local battery farm…
Exactly.
Nazis and their ilk do not participate in free, civil, and democratic society in good faith. They do not respect the norms that go along with such a society, such as respect for others, but instead seek to abuse the rights afforded to them to attack the rights of others.
A Nazi should never be given the benefit of doubt (I.e. Not tolerating claims that a Nazi is “just joking”, “shitposting”, or “defying political correctness” – when a Nazi says something, they should be taken at their word that they mean it).
As a consequence, they should be given extremely limited scope to express their views, and should be treated with extreme prejudice by civil society (by which I mean the voters, the public, the media, public and private organisations, and not just governments) when they seek to put their thoughts and words into deeds and actions.
Tl;dr – the only good Nazi is a scared Nazi, by which I mean one afraid to own up to their affiliation, afraid to spread their views in public, and very, very afraid of the consequences to themselves if they ever try to translate their views into action.
And lest someone accuse me of being some wild-eyed leftist, I would say the exact same thing about an Islamist extremist.
beguiledagain,
It’s generally believed that holding a separate Senate election to delay the House election to the second half of the year would be a low act that would condemn the government to an even greater hiding.
On the other hand, the incoming government (Labor, presumably) would be almost certainly be forced to call the following election almost a year early to get the Senate and House back in sync without clashing with the budget. A de facto two year term would mean an election after Labor’s honeymoon and give the coalition a chance to get some furniture back. Theoretically.
And yes, the government controls the sitting calendar.
SimonKatich
“Because it is OK to be white.”
Alas, I think you’re correct. 🙁
So now Scotty wants us all to pay for security at places of worship.
FMD
Hey Scooter, tax ’em all and there’s the revenue for your church army.
We’re really heading into twilight zone stuff now..
Barney
Thats because the US Bill of Rights has too much freedom with its free speech provision. Which is why I cited specifically have one like the EU that lets Germany deal with its Nazi heritage to prevent a repeat.
So far Germany has succeeded in keeping the Nazis from rising as a major political force though recent months have been a bit worrying.