Federal election minus two months

No new federal poll, but preselection latest from Curtin, Moncrieff and Sturt in the House, and the Northern Territory in the Senate.

In an off week in the fortnightly cycle of Newspoll and Essential Research, and no Ipsos poll overnight in Nine Newspapers, it looks like poll junkies will have to make do with New South Wales this week. We do have a poll of Senate voting intention from The Australia Institute, encompassing by Dynata from 2019 voters through February and March, which has Labor on 33%, the Coalition on 28%, the Greens on 12% and One Nation on 8%, from which a post-election outcome is projected of 30 to 32 seats for the Coalition, 28 to 29 seats for Labor, eight to nine seats for the Greens, four to five seats for the One Nation, two to three for the Centre Alliance, one for Australian Conservatives, and possibly one for Derryn Hinch, Jacqui Lambie or Tasmanian independent Craig Garland. The poll was the subject of a paywalled report in the Financial Review, and a full report featuring detailed breakdowns will shortly be available on The Australia Institute’s website.

Other than that, some recent preselection developments to relate:

• Last week’s Liberal preselection to choose a successor to Julie Bishop in Curtin was won by Celia Hammond, former University of Notre Dame vice-chancellor, who secured victory in the first round with 51 votes out of 82. The only other competitive contender was Anna Dartnell, an executive for resources company Aurizon, who received 28 votes. Erin Watson-Lynn, who was said to have been favoured by Bishop, received only one vote, after receiving substantial unhelpful publicity for past social media comments critical of the Liberal Party. It has been widely suggested that Hammond’s socially conservative views make her an ill fit for the electorate, which recorded a 72% yes vote in the same-sex marriage referendum – hoping to take advantage of the situation is Louise Stewart, who established a chain of health care clinics, and identifies as a moderate and “independent Liberal”.

Andrew Potts of the Gold Coast Bulletin reports eight candidates have nominated for the preselection to succeed Steve Ciobo as the Liberal National Party candidate in Moncrieff, which is expected to be held in a few weeks. Gold Coast councillor Cameron Caldwell is reckoned to be the frontrunner, with other candidates including Karly Abbott, a staffer to Ciobo, and Fran Ward, a “local businesswoman”.

• Labor has preselected Cressida O’Hanlon, a family dispute resolution practitioner, as its candidate for the Adelaide seat of Sturt, which will be vacated with the retirement of Christopher Pyne. The Liberal preselection will be held on Saturday – the presumed front-runner, James Stevens, is backed by Pyne and other factional moderates, and faces opposition from two conservatives, Joanna Andrew and Deepa Mathew.

• The Country Liberal Party in the Northern Territory has preselected Sam McMahon, a Katherine-based veterinarian, out of a field of 12 to succeed the retiring Nigel Scullion as its Senate candidate.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,745 comments on “Federal election minus two months”

Comments Page 6 of 55
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  1. Labor blowhards ignore the research about donations corrupting politics in Australia
    Trying to shoot the messenger instead of taking the research published today on board

    We’re the only western developed democracy without a bill or charter of rights and typically the right wing Labs here are coming out saying no because some RW nutjob argument.
    Exemplifying how self-interested they are.

    More of the same useless mediocrity, do nothing, say nothing, just put us in charge of everything, and all will be fine.

    With Sir Lunchalot now out, Joey free and Eddie O possibly out by December this year, along with ‘Marky’ Mark Latham possibly in the NSW upper house. Labor may be partying like it’s 2004, with the NSW Labor right getting the band all back together.

    CSG in NSW is and was entirely a product of the Lab-Lib duopoly that forced thousands of NSW citizens to expend time and money to keep the coal bastards out of their communities.
    What community in NSW was asked or listened too on this matter before the start of operations?
    The Libs eventually realised that they would require hundreds of cops to break community barricades and eventually gave up and sucked up the fact that people were not interested in having their land and local environment destroyed by this industry.

  2. ajm says:
    Monday, March 18, 2019 at 11:24 am
    Windhover @ #154 Monday, March 18th, 2019 – 10:10 am

    Kakuru says:
    Monday, March 18, 2019 at 10:17 am
    Is it okay to egg a Nazi?

    I say Yes.
    ………………………………………………………………..

    I say no for 2 reasons.

    ……………………………………………………………………………
    Egging of someone in a powerless position would be reprehensible.

    Egging of the rich and/or powerful? Not so much.

    Egging on the scale of political “violence” doesn’t even register.

    Get a life people.
    ………………………………………………………………………….
    I agree with your sentiments ajm.

    But sentiments ought give way to principle unless you believe the emotional life is the only one worth living. In which case its pointless to argue with you.

    And, as for emotion, you need look no further than Zoid’s exemplary response to my post.
    …………………………………………………………………….

    Zoidlord says:
    Monday, March 18, 2019 at 11:24 am
    @Windhover

    This is more than a belief fool.

    This is a Nazi attack

    Imagine how The Germans must be feeling for them nazism coming back is a bad thing.

    Like the last 100 years has been totally worthless!

    Egging the nazis will show them true colours that they are in the media spot light(the nazis).

    Today is only the start.

    Race Hate laws that were watered down by the liberal party who helped fostered fascist right, someone needs to fight back.

    And since the media is doing fuck all, the police doing fuck all we have to do something.

    This ain’t no fuxking game Windhover.

    …………………………………………………………………..

    So you can see ajm, you let in a little egging and look what you are now responsible for inciting. And you have been warned. “Today is only the start”.

    Zoid is running with your understandable response and now he wants to take it to perhaps cartons of eggs, or more? until he gets sick of that and its pointlessness in arousing media or police to do “fuck something” in this intolerable world of racism Zoid so nobly attacks.

    And then when will you jump off ajm?

  3. Guytaur – yes, Rupert is a lot of the problem.

    It is he who is the ‘cancer’ who ‘must be held responsible’.

  4. Windhover

    We have laws about assault and no one is denying that egging is assault.

    So some free advice. Stop defending Nazis.

  5. “and like Briefly has said earlier – For another thing, the Right actually believe in violence as a legitimate political device and they welcome violence directed at them. This not only legitimises their own tactics (in their eyes), it opens the way for further outrage, further provocation.”

    This is exactly what we are seeing playing out with the egging incident right now. 🙁

    Only legit outcome i can see from this is if all participants are SEEN to be subject the the full and proper application of the rule of law as it applies. Not saying the sentances should be OT, but needs to be SEEN to be resolved at law.

  6. Benjamin Law

    @mrbenjaminlaw

    Starting to feel a physical tightness in my chest as I start to realise our newsrooms’ lack of diversity in staff and leadership has now caught up with us in disastrous ways.

    Unless you palpably and viscerally understand the effects of racism, it’ll always just be another story.

  7. guytaur says:
    Monday, March 18, 2019 at 12:43 pm

    Barney

    We have a Universal Free Right to Speech. We do not have a Universal Free right to hate speech.

    But hate speech is just one from of speech, so your two statements contradict each other.

    Speech is not a universal Right, there are rightly limitations.

  8. “Why do we treat Nazi supporters different to ISIS supporters?”

    because they have the numbers in cabinet and on the backbench?

  9. guytaur says:
    Monday, March 18, 2019 at 12:42 pm
    Windhover

    We have laws about assault and no one is denying that egging is assault.

    So some free advice. Stop defending Nazis.
    ………………………………………………………………………..

    You claim to believe in a Bill of Rights Guytaur.

    Any Bill of Rights worth the paper it is written on would demand the right to a fair trial including adequate representation in respect of any prosecution as a fundamental human right .

    Let me know whether you think the right to a fair trial is a fundamental human right and then get back to me with your advice. Or do you think the Nuremberg trials would have been better without people defending Nazis? Perhaps you favour USSR style show trials.

  10. Barney

    Again. I cited the EU as an example of balancing the two and even the US does not allow you to yell “Fire” in a theatre.

    I am not arguing for an absolute right of Free Speech and to say so is to misrepresent my argument.

  11. Quoll @ #251 Monday, March 18th, 2019 – 11:34 am

    Labor blowhards ignore the research about donations corrupting politics in Australia
    Trying to shoot the messenger instead of taking the research published today on board

    We’re the only western developed democracy without a bill or charter of rights and typically the right wing Labs here are coming out saying no because some RW nutjob argument.
    Exemplifying how self-interested they are.

    More of the same useless mediocrity, do nothing, say nothing, just put us in charge of everything, and all will be fine.

    With Sir Lunchalot now out, Joey free and Eddie O possibly out by December this year, along with ‘Marky’ Mark Latham possibly in the NSW upper house. Labor may be partying like it’s 2004, with the NSW Labor right getting the band all back together.

    CSG in NSW is and was entirely a product of the Lab-Lib duopoly that forced thousands of NSW citizens to expend time and money to keep the coal bastards out of their communities.
    What community in NSW was asked or listened too on this matter before the start of operations?
    The Libs eventually realised that they would require hundreds of cops to break community barricades and eventually gave up and sucked up the fact that people were not interested in having their land and local environment destroyed by this industry.

    Labor in Qld has legislated a $1,000 threshold for disclosure of donations and has implemented a near real-time disclosure system. Interestingly the LNP are now challenging this in court to show their commitment to open disclosure (end sarcasm)

    This is the same as the Federal ALP policy and the ALP is voluntarily disclosing according to their own policy already.

    Also Labor in Qld has just legislated a bill of rights.

    There is no equivalence between the major parties on these issues except in some fevered minds.

  12. Does Labor smell blood in Adam Bandts seat of Melbourne? The Greens internal infighting may have taken its toll.

    Bandt is probably is still the favorite but if there is signs of vulnerability in his seat in Melbourne then the Greens can forget about winning Macnamara, Higgins, or Kooyong.

    “Labor campaigners believe they are within striking distance of defeating Adam Bandt in the federal seat of Melbourne amid tepid support for the Greens.

    The ALP is debating internally whether to pour extra campaign resources into the seat, bolstered by unions, as its anti-Greens national strategy is biting in inner Melbourne.

    Labor sources said an overlay of state election results showed a 54 per cent to 46 per cent Labor-versus-Greens result, although this measure is indicative rather than a concrete reflection of federal voting intentions.

    Labor’s Luke Creasey is running a campaign pitched at the Greens heartland, embracing climate change and asylum-seekers and the core ALP policy areas of health and education.

    The ALP believes Mr Bandt does not fall into the category of many Greens candidates who have been easily exposed due to poor social media history and past radical activism.

    Instead, in order to regain the traditionally rusted-on ALP seat, the party will have to rely on a drop in Greens’ support in the wake of bitter internal party brawling and attempts to spread campaigning resources to the normally safe Liberal seat of Kooyong.

    Senior ALP figures said lawyer Julian Burnside had made a fundamental error by running for the Greens in Kooyong and would have seriously pressured Treasurer Josh Frydenberg if he had contested the seat as an independent.

    “Burnside has totally cocked it up. He won’t win that seat for the Greens,’’ a senior Labor figure said.

    Labor’s bid to win back Melbourne, lost to the Greens in 2010, is already being aided by union campaign funding and on-the-ground canvassing of votes.

    Mr Bandt was the first Greens candidate to win a lower house seat at a general election but the second after Michael Organ, who was elected at a by-election. Mr Organ was the member for Cunningham between 2002 and 2004.

    The Labor optimism in Melbourne is not shared across the entirety of the party, with other senior party sources suggesting it could take two elections to defeat Mr Bandt.

    “He is looking weak but not so weak that he will lose,’’ a senior figure said.

    “The Greens’ brand has definitely taken a hit but it’s really whether it’s going to be a long-term hit or short term.

    “We can definitely say that the seat is not rusted on to Bandt.’’

    Critical to the outcome will be the extent to which Labor can cut Mr Bandt’s primary vote, which was 43.75 per cent in 2016.

    At that election, Labor (24.46 per cent) and the Liberal Party (25.25 per cent) split almost evenly 50 per cent of the primary vote.

    Senior Labor strategists said it is conceivable that Labor’s primary vote will climb significantly and the Liberal vote drop significantly, at the same time that the Greens’ vote falls.

    “Everything will need to go our way but we are very hopeful that we can win it back. We want it back now,’’ a Labor figure familiar with the on-the-ground dynamic in Melbourne said.”

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/labor-target-on-green-mps-melbourne-seat/news-story/79458cecd0c1638a2e935307692fcaa7

  13. Windhover

    Stop defending a Nazi. I already told you the legal system has dealt with it regarding the youth. It may have something to say still about the actions of Anning.

    You may not like that legal outcome but it has already started.

    The youth was arrested and released by the police. Any charges that Anning may face will be up to the usual police investigation referral to the prosecution and then go to court.

    I don’t see why you have an argument with this.

  14. Windhover, PB is not a court of law.

    Yes of course Fraser Anning should get proper legal representation if and when he faces a court. But that says nothing about the social defensibility of defending him on, eg, PB.

  15. I think you all should be a lot less relaxed about Queensland and our tendency to return utter nutters. Anning hopes to reap the whirlwind of right-wing hatred which is a rich vein to mine in Queensland. 50% TPP is a great result for Labor up here. It probably won’t be Anning, but someone of Bob Katter’s callibre is really the best we can hope for. In fact you should all really hope that Larissa Waters is returned otherwise it’s likely we’ll send you Malcolm Roberts. For those of you who think we will return 3 Labor senators – you’re going to have to make a vast improvement on the 26% primary achieved in 2016.

  16. Egg throwing as a prelude to a political career and inspired the Beatles lyric “I am the eggman”

    Federal politician Bob Katter has outed himself and several high-profile barristers as the culprits who pelted the Beatles with eggs during their Australian tour in 1964.
    Mr Katter’s admission ends a 40-year mystery about who threw eggs at the Fab Four as they were greeted by screaming fans in Brisbane in 1964.
    The Beatles touched down in Brisbane just after midnight on a chilly June night in 1964.
    About 8,000 fans were there to greet them, along with a group of non-fans with eggs in their pockets.
    Mr Katter has now revealed he was among that group.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2004-06-30/i-am-the-egg-man-katter/2002186

  17. Windhover @ #254 Monday, March 18th, 2019 – 11:37 am

    ajm says:
    Monday, March 18, 2019 at 11:24 am
    Windhover @ #154 Monday, March 18th, 2019 – 10:10 am

    Kakuru says:
    Monday, March 18, 2019 at 10:17 am
    Is it okay to egg a Nazi?

    I say Yes.
    ………………………………………………………………..

    I say no for 2 reasons.

    ……………………………………………………………………………
    Egging of someone in a powerless position would be reprehensible.

    Egging of the rich and/or powerful? Not so much.

    Egging on the scale of political “violence” doesn’t even register.

    Get a life people.
    ………………………………………………………………………….
    I agree with your sentiments ajm.

    But sentiments ought give way to principle unless you believe the emotional life is the only one worth living. In which case its pointless to argue with you.

    And, as for emotion, you need look no further than Zoid’s exemplary response to my post.
    …………………………………………………………………….

    Zoidlord says:
    Monday, March 18, 2019 at 11:24 am
    @Windhover

    This is more than a belief fool.

    This is a Nazi attack

    Imagine how The Germans must be feeling for them nazism coming back is a bad thing.

    Like the last 100 years has been totally worthless!

    Egging the nazis will show them true colours that they are in the media spot light(the nazis).

    Today is only the start.

    Race Hate laws that were watered down by the liberal party who helped fostered fascist right, someone needs to fight back.

    And since the media is doing fuck all, the police doing fuck all we have to do something.

    This ain’t no fuxking game Windhover.

    …………………………………………………………………..

    So you can see ajm, you let in a little egging and look what you are now responsible for inciting. And you have been warned. “Today is only the start”.

    Zoid is running with your understandable response and now he wants to take it to perhaps cartons of eggs, or more? until he gets sick of that and its pointlessness in arousing media or police to do “fuck something” in this intolerable world of racism Zoid so nobly attacks.

    And then when will you jump off ajm?

    Zoidlord is responsible for his own statements.

    Principles are fine, but they rely on assumptions about human behaviour. Blind application of “principles” has been the source of much suffering in humankind, both in supporting oppression and failing to respond to oppression.

    Whataboutism is fake debate. I presented my response to a concrete situation – if you want to know my views about a different concrete situation, you won’t get there by asking “how far would you go”.

  18. GladysB brings out the dollar bill carpet bomb in desperation, might work…

    “Weekly public transport costs will be capped at $50 with the move to save commuters as much as $686 a year. Premier Gladys Berejiklian unveiled the change to Opal fees this morning. Via @RoseBrennan12

  19. guytaur says:
    Monday, March 18, 2019 at 1:00 pm

    Barney

    Again. I cited the EU as an example of balancing the two and even the US does not allow you to yell “Fire” in a theatre.

    I am not arguing for an absolute right of Free Speech and to say so is to misrepresent my argument.

    No, but you’re arguing for a charter of Rights, saying that it would help combat extremism.

    You raised the US and Trump as an example.

    My point was it hasn’t helped the US as it is a source of much of this hatred.

    You then ran off to Europe. 🙂

  20. guytaur says:
    Monday, March 18, 2019 at 1:03 pm
    Windhover

    Stop defending a Nazi. I already told you the legal system has dealt with it regarding the youth. It may have something to say still about the actions of Anning.

    You may not like that legal outcome but it has already started.

    The youth was arrested and released by the police. Any charges that Anning may face will be up to the usual police investigation referral to the prosecution and then go to court.

    I don’t see why you have an argument with this.

    …………………………………………………………………………………..

    True Guytaur, there is plenty you don’t “see”, including what I am arguing.

  21. The new federal political editor at The West is Lanai Scarr – very little experience in this field – I’m sure she’ll be suitably briefed by her editor ……….

  22. Windhover

    I see exactly what you are arguing. You are arguing to treat a Nazi with deference.

    I won’t. I will treat a Nazi with contempt. Their entire ideology is using violence for political ends. Thats what you are defending.

  23. Burnside has totally cocked it up. He won’t win that seat for the Greens,’’ a senior Labor figure said.

    Senior ALP figures said lawyer Julian Burnside had made a fundamental error by running for the Greens in Kooyong and would have seriously pressured Treasurer Josh Frydenberg if he had contested the seat as an independent.

    My sentiments exactly 2 weeks ago.Those electorates want a pretend Lib to stand,not a greenie.

  24. sprocket_ @ #275 Monday, March 18th, 2019 – 1:11 pm

    GladysB brings out the dollar bill carpet bomb in desperation, might work…

    “Weekly public transport costs will be capped at $50 with the move to save commuters as much as $686 a year. Premier Gladys Berejiklian unveiled the change to Opal fees this morning. Via @RoseBrennan12

    Daily fares across the Melbourne Metro system (Trams, trains, buses and some ferries) is capped at $8.60 per day. which means Sydneysiders will still pay over 16% more per week than the happy little commuters in Victoria.

  25. steve davis
    It is not as if the voting numbers are secret. Burnside really didn’t want to win is the only conclusion you can make.

  26. sprocket_ says:
    Monday, March 18, 2019 at 1:11 pm
    GladysB brings out the dollar bill carpet bomb in desperation, might work…

    “Weekly public transport costs will be capped at $50 with the move to save commuters as much as $686 a year. Premier Gladys Berejiklian unveiled the change to Opal fees this morning. Via @RoseBrennan12

    It depends if commuters place more value on fares or on a reliable and comfortable ride.

  27. One interesting aspect of the Jack the Ripper investigation at the time was that they were looking for a “monster” – he was quite literally depicted in newspapers as a deformed quasi-human.

    So any ‘normal looking’ person doing an everyday job would most likely have been ignored.

    Similarly today we have Morrison saying this terrorist is ‘not human’. Newsflash, PM, he is human – and to start denigrating anyone as ‘not human’ is the road to disaster. I’m sure that the terrorist believed that those he was shooting were ‘subhuman’ or ‘not human’.

    Sadly, Morrison and Dutton’s ‘Border Force’ failed to stop this white Australian terrorist from leaving these shores and perpetrating an appalling act of mass murder in New Zealand.

  28. I’m not going out on a limb and claiming Labor will win Melbourne. But I don’t mind reminding people that I said many many months ago that Bandt was no where near as safe as a superficial look at his margin would indicate.

    I said Labor would have a serious look at Melbourne. And they clearly are. I probably still come down slightly on the side of Bandt scraping back, but that’s far from certain. A strong local campaign might get the job done.

    The problem Labor has is too many targets in Victoria.

  29. Its interesting to see how Labor people are happy to have the Liberals win a seat as long as it means getting rid of the Greens.

    No more condemning the Greens for sometimes thinking the Liberals can help them win a seat.

  30. SMH say Tarrant is going to represent himself in court after sacking his lawyers. No doubt Tarrant is looking for another venue to sprout his crap.
    Surley the presiding judge has the power to prevent him being heard.

  31. Vilification, the game the whole family can play.

    1. Identity your target.
    2. Label target
    3. Assert that because the target is one of the they are a special case and therefore fair game.
    4. Get them righteous feels.

  32. ratsak

    There is a difference between vilification and deference.

    Remembering I at least from my first post called the actions of eggboy assault.

  33. Rupert Murdoch tweets (not really)

    Maybe most Moslems (Christians/White people) peaceful, but until they recognize and destroy their growing jihadist (extreme Fundamentalist/White Supremacist/neo-nazi) cancer they must be held responsible.

    Replacing Rupert’s words shows how racist he is!

  34. Realistically its only an Independent Lib that has any chance of knocking off a sitting Coalition member in those electorates,not Labor or the Greens.

  35. This was posted 10 days ago.

    @Coalition_Media

    These are the sorts of people Bill Shorten’s laws would let into Australia. From today’s @couriermail

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