Federal election minus two months

No new federal poll, but preselection latest from Curtin, Moncrieff and Sturt in the House, and the Northern Territory in the Senate.

In an off week in the fortnightly cycle of Newspoll and Essential Research, and no Ipsos poll overnight in Nine Newspapers, it looks like poll junkies will have to make do with New South Wales this week. We do have a poll of Senate voting intention from The Australia Institute, encompassing by Dynata from 2019 voters through February and March, which has Labor on 33%, the Coalition on 28%, the Greens on 12% and One Nation on 8%, from which a post-election outcome is projected of 30 to 32 seats for the Coalition, 28 to 29 seats for Labor, eight to nine seats for the Greens, four to five seats for the One Nation, two to three for the Centre Alliance, one for Australian Conservatives, and possibly one for Derryn Hinch, Jacqui Lambie or Tasmanian independent Craig Garland. The poll was the subject of a paywalled report in the Financial Review, and a full report featuring detailed breakdowns will shortly be available on The Australia Institute’s website.

Other than that, some recent preselection developments to relate:

• Last week’s Liberal preselection to choose a successor to Julie Bishop in Curtin was won by Celia Hammond, former University of Notre Dame vice-chancellor, who secured victory in the first round with 51 votes out of 82. The only other competitive contender was Anna Dartnell, an executive for resources company Aurizon, who received 28 votes. Erin Watson-Lynn, who was said to have been favoured by Bishop, received only one vote, after receiving substantial unhelpful publicity for past social media comments critical of the Liberal Party. It has been widely suggested that Hammond’s socially conservative views make her an ill fit for the electorate, which recorded a 72% yes vote in the same-sex marriage referendum – hoping to take advantage of the situation is Louise Stewart, who established a chain of health care clinics, and identifies as a moderate and “independent Liberal”.

• Andrew Potts of the Gold Coast Bulletin reports eight candidates have nominated for the preselection to succeed Steve Ciobo as the Liberal National Party candidate in Moncrieff, which is expected to be held in a few weeks. Gold Coast councillor Cameron Caldwell is reckoned to be the frontrunner, with other candidates including Karly Abbott, a staffer to Ciobo, and Fran Ward, a “local businesswoman”.

• Labor has preselected Cressida O’Hanlon, a family dispute resolution practitioner, as its candidate for the Adelaide seat of Sturt, which will be vacated with the retirement of Christopher Pyne. The Liberal preselection will be held on Saturday – the presumed front-runner, James Stevens, is backed by Pyne and other factional moderates, and faces opposition from two conservatives, Joanna Andrew and Deepa Mathew.

• The Country Liberal Party in the Northern Territory has preselected Sam McMahon, a Katherine-based veterinarian, out of a field of 12 to succeed the retiring Nigel Scullion as its Senate candidate.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,745 comments on “Federal election minus two months”

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  1. I agree the egging was a stupid stunt, boarded on assault, and should not be condoned.

    part of me cheered though.

    We have an actual white supremacist in our senate, and we must remember who brought him there. He was on hanson’s ticket multiple times over many years. She has beaten the anti-Islam drum and needs to be condemned as well. I want to see LNP and ALP pollies calling for voters to not vote PHON in response to Christchurch.

  3. Quoll quoted some of this earlier, but here’s a longer extract from Rebecca Huntley’s Quarterly Essay (longer extract than this in the Guardian at https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2019/mar/18/fairer-greener-smarter-ordinary-voters-are-way-ahead-of-the-political-class

    If [opinion] polls were influential on policy and politics, we would have made big investments in affordable and social housing, banned foreign donations to political parties and further curtailed corporate donations to political parties, invested much more in renewable energy, maintained and even increased funding to the ABC, and made child care cheaper.

    We would have also made marriage equality a reality through an act of parliament without an expensive and hurtful postal survey (the most wasteful piece of market research in the history of Australia). We may already have made changes to negative gearing and moved towards adopting elements of the Uluru Statement from the Heart. We would have made euthanasia legal across the country and started the process leading to a republic. We would have put more funding into Medicare and the National Disability Insurance Scheme. We would have taken up the first iteration of the Gonski education reforms. We would be installing a world-class national broadband network.

    These are some of the issues on which this democratic majority comes together: topics that attract 60% or higher public support if we refer to all the available surveys, a basic agreement crossing party lines, stretching from soft Liberal and Labor to Green and independent voters – and even (on some issues such as euthanasia and donation reform) to One Nation voters.

    … understood in their complexity, these views show clearly that the opportunity is there for an incoming Labor team to be bold in its approach to government, unapologetic in its advocacy for the public sector, and courageous in its leadership on the environment. Even on the vexed issue of immigration and asylum seekers, there is potential for a less defensive, more open approach. All in all, Australians are ready for reform, and more ready for the revival of social democracy than many assume.

    There’s a challenge for you Bill Shorten! Rise to it!

  4. Kakuru says: Monday, March 18, 2019 at 11:03 am

    PhoenixRed
    “So Joe Blow says – He’s a Nazi so its OK …….. He’s a Muslim so its OK …… He’s a white supremacist so its OK …..He’s a Lefty so its ok …… He’s a Republican so its ok ….. ”

    Nazis are a special case. I mean… seriously.

    *********************************************

    To you Kakuru ……. to Brenton Tarrant Muslims were a special case …..

  5. Kakuru says:
    Monday, March 18, 2019 at 10:17 am
    Is it okay to egg a Nazi?

    I say Yes.
    ………………………………………………………………..

    I say no for 2 reasons.

    First, I am vehemently opposed to people being punished for their beliefs, whatever they may be. Punishing people for their beliefs has been a dark road in human history that has led to such outrages as Christchurch itself. Weren’t the murdered people punished for their beliefs?

    Secondly I regard egging as an abhorrent punishment. Whilst it does minimal physical harm it is immediately degrading to the victim. I cannot see how it is intended to work at any level of sentencing principles.

    I do not see it as encouraging either general or specific deterrence. On the contrary I suspect it simply enflames and amplifies views already formed.

    As a form of “”retribution “” it obviously assuages some anger directed at the convicted transgressor. But it is hardly a balanced response to whatever the perceived crime may be. Should egging be used for minor offences like speeding, shoplifting or simply restricted to the crime of holding an unpopular opinion?

    Finally, as a form of rehabilitation, getting the criminal to understand their crime and reform their ways I remain totally baffled as to how anyone would think that could work.

    I have addressed the punishment of egging in legal form since it ought to go without saying that “punishment” without legal process involving establishing the crime of “being a nazi”, proving that a person had committed that crime and only then imposing the sentence of egging is just an assault on the rule of law.

  6. The danger lurks behind the cloak of respectability – flags, associations, uniforms, religion.

    And they infiltrate political organizations, witness the Liberal Party absent the likes of Chaney, McPhee, Georgiou, Turnbull and the others driven out by the right wing, divisive ideology of Howard and his successors.

    Divide and destroy has become divide and rule.

    Australia has an opportunity to change the course and reputation of the Nation when this Right Wing, austerity, trickle down and racist driven dysfunctional government has the guts to call the election.

    Meanwhile they bang on about Labor “stealing your savings” by amending the franking credit regime.

    Hopefully the very fact that the generation they pander to have Grand-children will see their selective and divisive pitch to the Nation fail – and fail dismally.

  7. I suppose if I have to I would say “no” to egging.

    But it did tickle my funny bone, and eggs are not the same as bullets. I don’t think there is an equivalency.

  8. For mine, the case where the dickhead headbutted Abbott was much more serious, that was a real act of violence & the guy seemed to get off too lightly.

    OTOH Eggboy’s was political theatre and the target was Anning’s pride. In less fraught times pies eggs and rotten tomatoes weren’t seen as potential weapons of terror and assassination, more the props of student pranksters(remember them?, surely the gnarly old boomers here must!) and hecklers .

  9. So with his comments Dutton has killed his political career putting himself in the company of Fraser Anning.

    GetUP! has some wonderful campaign material now.

  10. I dunno about the wisdom of the motion condemning Anning. While I agree wholeheartedly with the principle and also recognise the importance of calling out racist hate, I reckon he will also seize on this move to paint himself as the true outsider, “truth teller” and victim. I reckon there is a real risk that the ugly underbelly of Queensland may rally to his flag. It would be a bitter outcome if after the next election Anning secures the last Queensland Senate seat instead of Malcolm Roberts (although to a certain degree they are interchangeable) or Larissa Waters.

  11. Windhover

    The eggy was arrested released by the police without charge.

    Anning has not insisted on charges but may face some of his own.

    That should tell you all you need to know. Thats the legal system dealing with it.

  12. “To you Kakuru ……. to Brenton Tarrant Muslims were a special case …..”

    Well, not just me, PhoenixR. A lot of people don’t like Nazis.

    I think there are some things that are objectively evil. Nazism is one of them. Equating one’s response to Nazism to another’s response to Islam is part of the problem. In general, intolerance is wrong; but there are some things we should never tolerate – like Nazis

  13. @Asher_Wolf tweets

    The fact that far too many media outlets aren’t calling out false equivalence in statements made by Coalition ministers is a failure to condemn Nazis

  14. Windhover @ #154 Monday, March 18th, 2019 – 10:10 am

    Kakuru says:
    Monday, March 18, 2019 at 10:17 am
    Is it okay to egg a Nazi?

    I say Yes.
    ………………………………………………………………..

    I say no for 2 reasons.

    First, I am vehemently opposed to people being punished for their beliefs, whatever they may be. Punishing people for their beliefs has been a dark road in human history that has led to such outrages as Christchurch itself. Weren’t the murdered people punished for their beliefs?

    Secondly I regard egging as an abhorrent punishment. Whilst it does minimal physical harm it is immediately degrading to the victim. I cannot see how it is intended to work at any level of sentencing principles.

    I do not see it as encouraging either general or specific deterrence. On the contrary I suspect it simply enflames and amplifies views already formed.

    As a form of “”retribution “” it obviously assuages some anger directed at the convicted transgressor. But it is hardly a balanced response to whatever the perceived crime may be. Should egging be used for minor offences like speeding, shoplifting or simply restricted to the crime of holding an unpopular opinion?

    Finally, as a form of rehabilitation, getting the criminal to understand their crime and reform their ways I remain totally baffled as to how anyone would think that could work.

    I have addressed the punishment of egging in legal form since it ought to go without saying that “punishment” without legal process involving establishing the crime of “being a nazi”, proving that a person had committed that crime and only then imposing the sentence of egging is just an assault on the rule of law.

    Egging of someone in a powerless position would be reprehensible.

    Egging of the rich and/or powerful? Not so much.

    Egging on the scale of political “violence” doesn’t even register.

    Get a life people.

  15. @Windhover

    This is more than a belief fool.

    This is a Nazi attack

    Imagine how The Germans must be feeling for them nazism coming back is a bad thing.

    Like the last 100 years has been totally worthless!

    Egging the nazis will show them true colours that they are in the media spot light(the nazis).

    Today is only the start.

    Race Hate laws that were watered down by the liberal party who helped fostered fascist right, someone needs to fight back.

    And since the media is doing fuck all, the police doing fuck all we have to do something.

    This ain’t no fuxking game Windhover.

  17. Eggboy did nothing to advance the debate and condemnation of Anning’s abhorrent views and words.

    It may give you a warm fuzzy watching it, but in the end it just takes the focus away from who Anning is and what he stands for.

  18. I wonder if those defending Anning’s right to think the way he does and give voice to those thoughts without being egged feel the same way as letting a spokesperson for ISIS have the same rights.

  19. To Phoenix and all the others on here who are well-meaning but sadly misguided:

    You can’t sit down and rationally debate a fascist/ Nazi/ white supremacist, because their ideology is rooted in hatred and the idea that certain races are inferior. We would all like it if we could sit around, have a cup of tea and turn these people’s ideas around. Neville Chamberlain thought it a good idea too. It doesn’t work.

    This shit has been normalised to the point now where they aren’t “fascists” or “Nazis”, they’re the “Alt-right” or the “hard right”, and we are meant to debate them because it’s just another point of view, and #freedom. No. They need removing from society, root and branch.

    The argument with fascism and Nazis was settled by Marshal Zhukov in Berlin in 1945. There is no place for these people in our society. These arseholes have been boosted by mainstream media outlets for the sake of ratings and click-bait at best, and at worst because those outlets share some of those beliefs. The idea that anyone should be able to say anything because #freedom is fundamentally so stupid I cannot believe a sentient being would hold it.

    As an aside, please keep in mind Burgey’s Second Law: If anyone has “Freedom” in their online bio, that person is invariably a dickhead of the highest order. Without exception. See, for example, Dean Cain.

  20. Andrew_Earlwood @ #159 Monday, March 18th, 2019 – 10:18 am

    I dunno about the wisdom of the motion condemning Anning. While I agree wholeheartedly with the principle and also recognise the importance of calling out racist hate, I reckon he will also seize on this move to paint himself as the true outsider, “truth teller” and victim. I reckon there is a real risk that the ugly underbelly of Queensland may rally to his flag. It would be a bitter outcome if after the next election Anning secures the last Queensland Senate seat instead of Malcolm Roberts (although to a certain degree they are interchangeable) or Larissa Waters.

    People like Anning need to be attacked with whatever (non-violent) means are available. If a censure motion is what is available, it should be used. If everyone keeps attacking him with the means at their disposal, it will soon filter through to the public.

    Just look at how effective the demonisation of Muslims has been.

  21. Anyone saying that smashing an egg on a thick skull hasn’t been outside a pub on Friday night!
    – I haven’t either.
    But I am objecting to the pseudo-legalistic language. Offences against others line up on a continuous series – and egg-throwing is way down the scale of offence. Well below punching. Below shouted insults without contact!
    Most politicians and journalists work hard at arousing hate and anger. An egg sounds like some of the anger was misdirected. Poetic justice??

  22. I agree that Anning is a disgrace, but I’m not entirely comfortable with parliamentarians being expelled for thought crimes (as offensive as his thoughts are). And in Anninga’s case, he’ll be gone soon enough. It’s also worth remembering that Anning is about as unrepresentative as a politician can be. He’s only in the Senate as a replacement for s44 casualty Malcolm Roberts, who himself got elected on a tiny vote (and clearly a lot fewer voted for Anning). So, he was a replacement One Nation (ie fringe party) Senator, who promptly left that party as soon as he was sworn in. Just who is is representing? Thankfully he’ll be a nobody again after 30th June. Then we don’t have give a shit what he has to say – as it should be.

  23. History has been (quite rightly) very unkind to Neville Chamberlain, however he did teach us a valuable lesson.

    Nazis can never be appeased. They see it as a sign of weakness in their “enemies” and will use that weakness/appeasement to push the boundaries even further.

    A lot of unpleasantness happened in the 1930s and 40s. And it all began with a failed Austrian artist giving speeches.

    If pelting them with eggs is what it takes to deplatform them, then so be it. It’s better than having to fight them with real weapons later on.

  24. What is the absolute latest date that the federal election can be held?

    I can see these clowns, knowing they are for the high jump, will hang on as long as they possibly can.

    Why not run out the clock? If they are going to lose why worry about the electorate’s view of their doing that.

    And who knows how many Black Swans are in the offing.

  25. I will repeat.

    Eggboy was arrested. The police released him.

    Anning may face further charges for his disproportionate response.

    Assault and false imprisonment is probably what he could be facing. A warning to all political staffers who think they can do a citizens arrest you better be very sure you are on the right side of the law.

    Edit: Not that I am saying the thugs were political staffers of course

  28. Just a question, but why did Howard charge Abbott with negating Hanson (by taking action which saw her jailed, remember)?

    And what was Hanson’s path in politics leading to her influence and jailing?

    IF she were siphoning votes from Labor would Howard have given Abbott the task of negating her?

    And, in reference to Ad Man from Mad Men and his reference to the “full force of the law”, I repeat, what Law noting the “free speech” debate and contributions to it by Coalition supporters?

  31. Hugo,

    Anning wasn’t elected despite a small number of people voting for him – he was elected because a substantial six figure number of Qld (where else?) constituents voted for One Nation, for which he was a candidate.

  32. William Bowe @ #180 Monday, March 18th, 2019 – 11:38 am

    I neglected to cover an Australia Institute poll of Senate voting intention when I originally did this post, which I’ve just rectified.

    I think you have a typo …

    … eight to nine seats for the Greens, four to five seats for the Greens …

    … or do we really expect 12 to 14 seats for the Greens?

  33. Jack

    And as I said in response to Quoll earlier, most of these policies have been delivered by past Labor governments, and remain present Labor policies.

    Liberal governments get in by promising to keep them, and then break their promises.

    Labor should not be the target of this kind of rhetoric. It’s playing the ‘same-same’ game, which is political spin – or ignorance.

  34. “eight to nine seats for the Greens, four to five seats for the Greens”

    WB being the first person ever to mix up the Greens and One Nation? 🙂

  35. The rich guy gets an egg on his head and the many poor throughout the world would love an egg to feed their kids.
    They’re a weird mob!
    Indeed.

  36. beguiledagain,

    Technically, an election for the House Of Representatives can be held as late as 2nd of November.

    An election for the Senate must be held (legally) before 1st July. Due to practical considerations of the time it takes to count the votes, the latest date is either the 18th May or the 25th, depending on who you listen to (most say the 18th).

  39. Mr Bowe,

    Thanks for the Senate addition. But

    30 to 32 seats for the Coalition, 28 to 29 seats for Labor, eight to nine seats for the Greens, four to five seats for the Greens, two to three for the Centre Alliance…

    Have the Greens split?

  40. guytaur,

    Shellbell has commented on this saying he couldn’t see any changes against Anning standing up in Court.

    The only question I can see, that Shellbell didn’t reference, was the amount of force that was used by those restraining him.

    In watching the video there seems to be only one person who acts appropriately, the one who stepped in to try and restrain Anning.

  41. So much talk about eggs, I’m reminded of the Russian Orthodox tradition of dueling with painted hard boiled eggs- if your egg cracks, you are out of the game. The one with the hardest egg, or best technique wins, though the losers can console themselves with this thought:

    “In the Orthodox and Eastern Catholic Churches, Easter eggs are dyed red to represent the blood of Christ, with further symbolism being found in the hard shell of the egg symbolizing the sealed Tomb of Christ — the cracking of which symbolized his resurrection from the dead.”

    Sadly in the case of Anning and the 51 dead souls, the cracked egg on his head will not result in their return.

  42. I would put that we do have to “give a shit” about what is said.

    The reason is that it emboldens others.

    So we have to know what is being said and who their audience consists of.

    Because that audience contains the danger.

  45. Barney

    The thugs did false imprisonment. That we is what we know as kidnapping. The seriousness of the offence would be treated in sentencing.

    The court may deal with it to send a message to neo nazis

  47. The rise in the demand for ‘freedom of speech’ mirrors the rise in white supremacists.

    Decades ago, it was accepted that there were reasonable limits on freedom of speech. As I used to say to my students, the only ‘freedoms’ we didn’t have was the freedom to vilify and insult people – nothing restricted our freedom to compliment people, for example.

    Unfettered ‘freedom of speech’ is something both sides of the horseshoe (extreme left/extreme right) advocate for, so lefties get sucked into advocating for something which encourages the extreme right.

    Restricting speech restricts the audience who hears a message, and also makes it clear that the message is not socially acceptable. As many, many of these ratbags clearly crave both an audience and acceptance, making it clear they won’t get either by advocating these views directs their energies into other (more socially acceptable) channels.

    And, of course, that applies to (some) politicians as well. Once upon a time, the media would have destroyed the careers of the likes of Anning before they even got off the ground.

  48. am i the only one who has noticed that the people on here who claim to abhor violence in all its forms are the ones advocating that it is o.k as long as it is perpetrated against the “right” target?

  50. phoenixRED @ #153 Monday, March 18th, 2019 – 10:09 am

    Nazis are a special case. I mean… seriously.

    *********************************************

    To you Kakuru ……. to Brenton Tarrant Muslims were a special case …..

    No, objectively.

    There’s a qualitative difference between a person peacefully practicing a religion of their choosing and a person choosing to advocate violence, murder, and genocide against ethnic minorities. The latter thing being what Nazis do and, historically, have actually tried to implement (and would have implemented, had the rest of the world not responded with things that were a lot more effective than eggs).

    When someone freely advocates that social protections against violence and murder be removed from one minority or another purely because of race/religion/ethnicity (as Nazis do), it’s fair enough for society to remove some of its protections from them so that they can have a small taste of what they’re wishing onto others.

    This ‘opposing violence is violence’ and ‘all opinions are subjective and everybody’s are equally valid’ stuff is straight out of Trump’s false-equivalence playbook.

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