BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate maintains its steady course overall, but with signs of the Greens losing ground.

Another fairly uneventful week in the world of BludgerTrack, which has only nudged 0.1% in favour of Labor on two-party preferred and one on the seat projection (the gain being in New South Wales), despite their one-point improvements in the week’s Newspoll and Essential Research polls. If there’s anything worth noting, it’s that the Greens have fallen below 9%, and One Nation are back up after a recent dip. Both pollsters also produced new numbers for the leadership trends, the only observable movement on which is that Scott Morrison’s net approval is slightly improving, for no immediately obvious reason. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,561 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor”

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  2. ratsak @ #1912 Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 11:39 am

    I always find it amusing that when a poster drops a continuous supply of fresh turds into the stream of discussion so many others insist on diving in and examining said turds. They’re not going to turn out to be Hershey bars people.

    Watching to see who is foolish enough to go fish them out is the only reason for dumping the turds in the first place.

    Well said. I don’t discriminate. I just block the turd producers and the turd munchers. Not much difference.

  3. poroti says:
    Sunday, March 17, 2019 at 12:08 pm
    Some meat for the Greenphobic Labor posters The gunman described himself as an eco-fascist.

    _______________________________

    An updated version of National Socialism. One half of the description is misdirection.

  4. Pegasus @ #1946 Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 12:20 pm

    12:03pm – https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2019/mar/17/new-zealand-attack-christchurch-in-mourning-after-mosque-massacre-latest-updates

    Police in Queensland have arrested a man after he drove his car into the gates of a mosque south of Brisbane overnight.

    Police allege that at 2.20pm on Saturday a 23-year-old man was stopped for a roadside drug test and was given a 24-hour driver’s licence suspension notice after he returned a positive result.

    But police say that once the man was released from custody, he returned to his car and drove it into the front gates of the Baitul Masroor mosque in Stockleigh, south of Brisbane.

    Police allege the man caused “minor damage” to the gates and “shouted offensive words through the open driver’s window towards the people inside, before driving home where he was located by police”.

    The battle to disarm the self righteous gun owners has just begun. I reckon Ardern is up to taking them on and bringing them to heal.

  5. Tampa 2001 and it accelerated from there.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-17/christchurch-attacks-stark-warning-of-toxic-hate-flourishing/10909394

    As with so many mass murders in recent years, the use of an assault rifle, the ubiquitous AR15, oxymoronically referred to as “the civilian M-16”, explains how one cowardly killer could be so lethal.
    :::
    State and federal police in Australia have long warned that, next to the immediate threat posed by Salafi jihadi terrorism, they are most concerned about the steady rise of right-wing extremism. There has been some comfort in the recognition that the most active right-wing extremist groups, and there are many, are disorganised, poorly led, and attract but small crowds.
    :::
    Almost all recent terrorist attacks have been lone-actor attacks. They are notoriously difficult to predict.

    One of the main reasons authorities struggle with identifying right-wing extremist “nobodies” who post online, before they turn to violence, is that it’s difficult to pick up a clear signal in the noise of a national discourse increasingly dominated by exactly the same narrative elements of mistrust, anxiety, and a blaming of the other.

    In Australia, as in Europe and America, mainstream politicians and mainstream media commentators have increasingly toyed with extremist ideas in the pursuit of popularity. Many have openly brandished outrageous ideas that in previous years would have been unsayable in mainstream political discourse or commentary.
    :::
    Both major parties, it must be said, succumbed to the lure of giving focus groups and pollsters the tough language and inhumane policies the public appeared to demand and reward. We are now beginning to see the true price that we have paid with the demonising of those arriving by boat seeking asylum, or looking too dark-skinned, or appearing too religious.

    The result has been such a cacophony of hateful rhetoric that it has been hard for those tasked with spotting the emergence of violent extremism to separate it from all the background noise of extremism.
    :::
    But ultimately, we need to address the permissive political environment that allows such hateful extremism to be promulgated so openly. The onus is on commentators and political leaders alike. They cannot change the past, but they will determine the future.

  6. Murdoch news may well be a “vanilla” style of racism, but you have to start somewhere.

    I just saw someone with Stan Grant on the ABC saying groups like ISIS are no different from white supremacists. They both expound a cultural ultra-nationalism and use violence to bring back some imagined past glory. For some reason it was very gratifying to see this being said on TV.

    [In my view Howard spent his entire career trying to tap some dream of white picket fences.]

    I have also noticed in the past few days the word “Nazi” has been permitted back into the media discussion. BTW, Godwin said this at the time of Charlottesville.

    “By all means, compare these s–theads to Nazis. Again and again. I’m with you,” he wrote.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/08/15/creator-godwins-law-ok-call-charlottesville-white-supremacists/

    Anyway, in my view ridiculing ultra-nationalist types is far more effective than trying to ignore them. It was very common and effective for a generation or so after the war (Hogan’s Hero’s, Get Smart – or anything by Mel Brooks for that matter, the Blues Brothers etc, etc )

    Ridicule does 2 things.
    1. It tells people who are tempted by ultra-nationalist BS that they will be considered a joke, and will not be taken seriously by society.
    2. It tells people who are the targets of ultra-nationalist wankers that society is on their side. It’s an inclusive message.

  7. guytaur

    I heard ‘your’ use of it many times before hearing about the ‘real’ ones. But then read Rupert’s rags and or watch foxtel and that is bound to happen 🙂

  9. ratsak @ #1907 Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 11:39 am

    I always find it amusing that when a poster drops a continuous supply of fresh turds into the stream of discussion so many others insist on diving in and examining said turds. They’re not going to turn out to be Hershey bars people.

    Watching to see who is foolish enough to go fish them out is the only reason for dumping the turds in the first place.

    Yeah, yeah, and you’re cool as for not engaging with them. Sorry but no can do here. It’s all too easy, and especially after Christchurch, to just ignore people with perverse perspectives and let them fester away on their ownsome. I prefer to deal with the turd problem so it’s not washing up all around us all the time. If possible.

    So you would have been one of the people happy to keep swimming with the blind mullets at Bondi then?

  11. Wikipedia

    According to environmentalist David Orton, the term is pejorative in nature and has “social ecology roots, against the deep ecology movement and its supporters plus, more generally, the environmental movement. Thus, ‘ecofascist’ and ‘ecofascism’, are used not to enlighten but to smear.

  12. Josh Butler
    ‏Verified account @JoshButler
    52s53 seconds ago

    I just went over to Pauline Hanson’s twitter to check whether she’d said much lately and oh my god you won’t believe what her last two tweets were

  13. A cursory glance of social media tells me that my no egging position is going to be routinely ignored in the case of Anning. Oh well, at least we probably shouldn’t punch people….

  17. . It was very common and effective for a generation or so after the war (Hogan’s Hero’s, Get Smart – or “anything by Mel Brooks for that matter, the Blues Brothers etc, etc”

    I hate Illonois nazis…

  18. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/mar/17/greens-pressure-labor-with-pre-election-push-to-tackle-climate-and-land-clearing

    LOL Greens “Pressure Labor”.

    Maybe like I said other day, stop bagging Labor and you will get your wish.

    I think Labor already has plans for something like it anyway.

    Oh yeah they did… Another policy stolen.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/dec/16/labor-announces-environmental-overhaul-avoiding-pre-election-internal-battle

  19. How to Vote ?
    For any PB’s with contacts in the Labor Party you might pass on how bad their web sites are both National & NSW, there are no links or dedicated sites on How to Vote. Very poor planning given the increasing % of online prepole
    Voting

    Even the Libeals & Greens have it worked out …this could cost Labor.

    https://nsw.liberal.org.au/How-To-Vote

  21. When Newscorp talks about a Labor Green government you know its on the cards.

    They can read polling. Of course BW won’t like it. Another government with Greens in it.

    So much for the Greens are irrelevant and don’t count memes trotted out here continually.

    Three Greens likely Alex Greenwich who continually works closely with the Greens as Clover Moore and him are very Green progressive. The independent from Wagga Wagga ran on climate.

    Change NSW needs. NSW will look like the first term of the Andrews Government.
    This means that Victoria ACT NSW will be progressive.
    Old is the odd man out on the east coast. Even there the Labor base is the progressive urban voters who just happen to be workers for those trying to divide workers and environmentalists.

  24. Sceptic,

    The sound track on the NSW attack add also needs beefing up. I distract myself while adds are on and I never notice that one until it’s ending. It needs some sudden sounds at the start to draw attention.

  26. P1

    Not when Antony Green is on the same panel and has made it clear what the likelihood is.

    Newscorp can’t contradict him.

  27. guytaur @ #1975 Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 12:49 pm

    When Newscorp talks about a Labor Green government you know its on the cards.

    They can read polling. Of course BW won’t like it. Another government with Greens in it.

    So much for the Greens are irrelevant and don’t count memes trotted out here continually.

    Three Greens likely Alex Greenwich who continually works closely with the Greens as Clover Moore and him are very Green progressive. The independent from Wagga Wagga ran on climate.

    Change NSW needs. NSW will look like the first term of the Andrews Government.
    This means that Victoria ACT NSW will be progressive.
    Old is the odd man out on the east coast. Even there the Labor base is the progressive urban voters who just happen to be workers for those trying to divide workers and environmentalists.

    A Labor-Green progressive NSW Govt would work for as long as the Labor right allows it to work.

    As we’ve seen in Britain though sometimes it’s just not permitted.

  28. guytaur @ #1976 Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 12:54 pm

    P1

    Not when Antony Green is on the same panel and has made it clear what the likelihood is.

    Newscorp can’t contradict him.

    I suspect what you (and he) mean is a minority Labor government. There will be no Labor Green government unless Antony himself stands and wins a seat for Labor.

  29. I don’t think ChCh will have any noticeable effect on the Shooters. They are campaigning on much more than guns. The anti-Nat, pro farmer campaign is what’s biting in the bush.

  30. P1

    It will be a Labor Green minority government Daley will need a formal agreement to have confidence to present to the Governor.

    See Gillard Government.

    Oh I forgot to mention the Newscorp guy also said he did not think the Liberals could win

  31. When News Corpse talks about a Labor Green government you can be guaranteed they know a Labor government is on the cards, and they are desperate to scare the blue-green waverers.

    Same as every other election campaign.

  32. Its interesting how scared some here seem to be of Labor being like the first term of the Andrews government or the ACT government.

  33. guytaur says:
    Sunday, March 17, 2019 at 1:00 pm

    P1

    It will be a Labor Green minority government Daley will need a formal agreement to have confidence to present to the Governor.

    See Gillard Government.

    Not necessarily.

    If Parliament sat and Labor demonstrated that they had the support of the majority the Governor would swear in a change.

    All any formal agreement does is make the process less messy.

  34. guytaur @ #1980 Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 1:00 pm

    P1

    It will be a Labor Green minority government Daley will need a formal agreement to have confidence to present to the Governor.

    See Gillard Government.

    The Gillard government was a Labor minority government with one Green and three Independents offering “confidence and supply” support. It was not a coalition and there were no Greens in the government … and in fact the Greens terminated the “alliance” in 2013 when they couldn’t get their way on taxation policy.

    Labor will not be sucked into such an “alliance” again. The Greens just can’t make it work.

  35. P1

    Daley will want the maximum bang for his buck. That means a formal alliance with the Greens along with the other independents is the best way to go.

    Just like the ones with Gillard the media will call that a Labor Green government. You will just have to cope.

  36. Smith & Warner visit Australian team in the UAE …

    “The boys were very accepting of us coming in with open arms and a lot of big hugs and cuddles.

    “It’s been great and it’s good to see the spirit that they’re in after a great series win in India.”

    Australia coach Justin Langer said it was like two brothers returning home.

    Did they bring a fresh supply of sandpaper ?

  38. @Guytaur:

    “From Insiders it was good to see Newscorp talking about A Labor Green NSW government.

    The NSW right is going to have to learn the Greens are not evil.

    That will probably make national politics on the left more civil too.”

    You are a fantasist. There will never be a Labor Green government in NSW.

    If Daley has to form a minority government after Saturday, what’s left of the Greens will be treated like all the other members of the cross bench.

    There will be no deals in return for support on motions of confidence or for supply.

    The Greens, like the other members of the Cross bench will simply have to make up their minds whether they support a Labor or a coalition government.

    If Daley does form a minority government it will be a rude shock for our vanity project liblings that they will host less sway and influence over the government than independents and the SFF.

    Good.

  39. If it ends up in a minority situation Labor will simply dare the Greens to support the Coalition.

    Labor has worked out the Greens have nothing to bargain with. What are they going to do? Support Gladys in a vote of no confidence? Nothing would delight Labor more than to see the Greens self destruct like that.

    It’s not the ACT or Tas where multi member electorates make majority government hard. Labor will do nothing to give the Greens credibility nor tie themselves to them.

  40. guytaur @ #1989 Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 1:12 pm

    P1

    Daley will want the maximum bang for his buck. That means a formal alliance with the Greens along with the other independents is the best way to go.

    Just like the ones with Gillard the media will call that a Labor Green government. You will just have to cope.

    A Labor-Green Govt would be a great result for energy policy in NSW. Also for urban development and infrastructure. The NSW social environment would be the winner.

  41. guytaur @ #1985 Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 1:12 pm

    P1

    Daley will want the maximum bang for his buck. That means a formal alliance with the Greens along with the other independents is the best way to go.

    Just like the ones with Gillard the media will call that a Labor Green government. You will just have to cope.

    Minority parties offering confidence and supply to a minority Labor government would be the second best outcome (to a majority Labor government).

    But I think a formal alliance is unlikely. Unlike other parties, Labor generally learn from past mistakes.

  43. lydia_shelly
    ‏@lydia_shelly
    4h4 hours ago

    TRIGGERED. Please note that many parts of the (Muslim) community are very angry that ScoMo turned up. We didn’t want him. We don’t trust him. We hold him accountable. #auspol

  44. Sceptic says:
    Sunday, March 17, 2019 at 1:13 pm

    Smith & Warner visit Australian team in the UAE …

    …

    Did they bring a fresh supply of sandpaper ?

    Almost certain they would have.

    Pretty standard equipment in a batsman’s kit.

  45. Andrew Earlwood its you thats the fantasist.

    We have heard this from Labor before. Then the election results come in and lo and behold Labor makes a deal with the Greens.

    History has more credibility than campaign spin

    And it was a Newscorp journalist calling it that not me. So if you think its going to be called anything else you need to think again.

    I note that you are scared of Labor being like Daniel Andrews first term or the ACT now.

    Both excellent Labor governments.

    The LNP were big contributors to the swing to Labor but they were not alone. The lesson working with the Greens is NOT an electoral liability. IF it was the LNP might have saved some furniture in Victoria.

  46. That AOC line of questioning may turn out to be nothing. But there is a lot of kickback on the addition of that census question (including i think a supreme court challenge) and she just lined up Ross on two counts. On if the inclusion of that question was requested of him by the administration in the first instance (rather than originating from within his department) and the other on if it was a new question and as such was brought to congress immediately after it was proposed rather than later. His wriggling and weasel words werent going to fool Cummings.

  49. TRIGGERED. Please note that many parts of the (Muslim) community are very angry that ScoMo turned up. We didn’t want him. We don’t trust him. We hold him accountable.

    You dont have to like him (I mean, who does), but as the PM his job is to rub shoulders with the Muslim community – especially at a time like this. He should do it respectfully and with their welcome – if he does it respectfully they should welcome him.

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