BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate maintains its steady course overall, but with signs of the Greens losing ground.

Another fairly uneventful week in the world of BludgerTrack, which has only nudged 0.1% in favour of Labor on two-party preferred and one on the seat projection (the gain being in New South Wales), despite their one-point improvements in the week’s Newspoll and Essential Research polls. If there’s anything worth noting, it’s that the Greens have fallen below 9%, and One Nation are back up after a recent dip. Both pollsters also produced new numbers for the leadership trends, the only observable movement on which is that Scott Morrison’s net approval is slightly improving, for no immediately obvious reason. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,561 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor”

Comments Page 39 of 52
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  3. guytaur @ #1903 Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 11:32 am

    Good Morning

    From Insiders it was good to see Newscorp talking about A Labor Green NSW government.

    The NSW right is going to have to learn the Greens are not evil.

    That will probably make national politics on the left more civil too.

    —————————————-
    Morrison presser.

    One Comment. Fraser Anning should face the full force of the law.

    Agree, a Labor-Green NSW Govt would be a good result, guytaur

  4. @ratsak

    There is no difference, they are both the same, but in this case, we have murdoch controlling Coalition Party, the same in UK.

    Just to give you an example:

    sheikh
    ‏ @sheikhitof
    4h4 hours ago

    Spot the difference?
    #christchurch #eggboy

    :large

  7. I always find it amusing that when a poster drops a continuous supply of fresh turds into the stream of discussion so many others insist on diving in and examining said turds. They’re not going to turn out to be Hershey bars people.

    Watching to see who is foolish enough to go fish them out is the only reason for dumping the turds in the first place.

  10. Simone
    ‏ @kangabella
    28m28 minutes ago
    Replying to @kangabella @ErykBagshaw @smh

    Disturbingly, the National’s parliamentary “friends of shooting” chair Bridget McKenzie popped up in Tasmania recently. #insiders #donations #lobbyists #politas #AusVotes2019 #auspol
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/feb/15/gun-lobby-donated-350000-to-australian-political-parties-in-a-year

    Although it was not required to do so, the Shooting Industry Foundation of Australia Limited also disclosed the 16 individual recipients of its donations, which included Liberal and National members of parliament who belong to the Parliamentary Friends of Shooting. The group is chaired by the Nationals senator Bridget McKenzie and the deputy chair is the Labor MP Anthony Byrne.

    The Liberal MPs Ross Vasta and Ian Goodenough are also members of the group, and took part in its annual shooting day in December 2016.

    Other MPs who received donations from the industry group included the Liberals Dan Tehan, Nicolle Flint and Michael Sukkar.

    The organisation also donated meals for a National party fundraiser for McKenzie, and gave donations to the Nationals MPs Kevin Hogan and Damian Drum

    Only one mention of Labor, the rest are Liberal+National.

  11. Kimmaree
    @kimmaree_tweet
    “The internet is the problem” … says all the newspapers and pollies who have been dog whistling racism for years #insiders

    61
    6:07 AM – Mar 17, 2019
    Twitter Ads info and privacy
    27 people are talking about this

  12. Jeff Sparrow
    ‏Verified account @Jeff_Sparrow
    46m46 minutes ago

    Now a good time to remember how easily something like Christchurch could have happened here
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-09-03/phillip-galea-committal-hearing-terror-trades-hall-targeted/10195364

    “Mr Staehli said Mr Galea wanted to produce what he called The Patriots Cookbook, which would show how to make smoke bombs and metal bombs by using potassium nitrate “for the advancement of extreme right wing ideology to overcome the perceived Islam-isation of Australia”. “

  15. Zoid,

    I knew my MP’s name would be on that donation list, she was a consistent advocate for guns before she entered Parliament.

    Nicole Flint, Member for Boothby, may your time be short.

  16. Good morning,

    In the aftermath of the Christchurch mosque shootings, I wonder if a massive backlash against the News Corporation media could be starting to occur. Thoughts?

    In regards to Fraser Anning, all will happen is that he will be censured. Also he now has a small but fanatical following, I don’t believe he will get re-elected though, but Anning was elected on the One Nation ticket in Queensland in 2016 which won over 250,000 votes in the state of Queensland. Therefore; I argue while it is a tiny minority, there are a large number of people who share’s Anning’s views, which includes committed One Nation supporters.

  17. Zoidlord

    Why I said yesterday that right wing extremists are taken seriously here in Victoria.

    Btw can’t believe all the rain in Sydney.
    Whilst we are having picture perfect weather in Melbourne, no sign of rain

  18. I have a question that may/may not have been posed – what effect, if anything, will this massacre have on the Shooters/Fishers in NSW election?

  19. Tristo

    When Morrison was talking about Anning facing the full force of the law he was talking about the response to being egged by young Egg Boy @Will_Connolly_

  20. Mark Apple^H^H^H^H^HNewton
    ‏ @NewtonMark
    19m19 minutes ago
    Replying to @viveka @timsout

    It seems to me that we’ve spent almost 20 years watching authoritarian monsters in Canberra pass laws to surveil and ban “terrorist groups,” but they’ve left a little footnote in 2-point flyspeck font with an asterisk which says “Unless they’re nazis.” That’s a loud statement.

  21. I was looking at some stuff re Howard and Hanson back in the day and noticed this. What Abbott said is pretty much what Poorlene said re ChCh. shooting. The shooting was bad because it would damage the image of conservatives.
    .
    .
    On June 19, 1998, in the wake of the Queensland election, Abbott launched an attack on One Nation. Writing in The Australian he declared “the Hanson phenomenon could destroy the Howard Government and give responsible conservatives a bad name”.
    https://outline.com/DAhCk6

  22. Mr Staehli said Mr Galea wanted to produce what he called The Patriots Cookbook, which would show how to make smoke bombs and metal bombs by using potassium nitrate “for the advancement of extreme right wing ideology to overcome the perceived Islam-isation of Australia”

    You know something’s off when a person uses ‘extreme’ to describe their own ideology.

    Also, that “perceived” qualified in front of “Islam-isation” is pretty suspect too. Who actually provided that quote about what the book was trying to do?

  23. @guytaur

    I had not heard that, I have had a very busy morning. Thank you for that information. Although I get a feeling Anning will be regarded as a sacrifice, so that others who have done the same as him (which they know who they are) can feel absolved of their sins.

    However Anning can only be expelled from the parliament, if he is found out to be guilty and sentenced to at least one year in jail.

  24. Vic – we need the rain … it has skirted Sydney for months with few downpours. I am relishing it, and so is my garden (though I don’t think my pet St Andrew’s Cross spider is … she is valiantly protecting her acquisitions is preparation for motherhood but copping the full brunt!)

  25. jenauthor @ #1918 Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 11:58 am

    I have a question that may/may not have been posed – what effect, if anything, will this massacre have on the Shooters/Fishers in NSW election?

    jen,
    I can get back to you about that one when I go back to Pre Poll tomorrow. No doubt they’ll talk about the responsible use of firearms, yada yada.

  26. Tristo

    If Victorian police decide the charges need to go to court hopefully the process will be fast enough that if found guilty he will be spending his last period of the Senate in jail.

    In the meantime as Barrie Cassidy highlighted just restrict the travel entitlements.
    No more fuelling hate in Melbourne.

  27. jenauthor says:
    Sunday, March 17, 2019 at 11:58 am

    I have a question that may/may not have been posed – what effect, if anything, will this massacre have on the Shooters/Fishers in NSW election?

    I’ve been thinking the same.

    I’d say it might effect the protest element of their vote.

    People not wanting to vote for a major Party.

  29. @guytaur

    Anning is not likely to be re-elected and his Senate term ends on June 30th.

    @Barney in Cà Mau

    The Nationals are still hated by a lot in country NSW, so Labor could benefit.

  31. I have a question that may/may not have been posed – what effect, if anything, will this massacre have on the Shooters/Fishers in NSW election?

    Boerwar said the other day it’s unlikely to have any effect on the party’s vote.

  33. Tristo

    Yes but if its decided Anning is a danger to the community he may not get bail. It would be a delicious way for him to end his Senate career absent due to being locked up. I know its not likely but one can dream 🙂

  35. @Victoria

    Yup but needs to happen Nationally to make any effort for change.

    Also still pissing down rain in Sydney, can’t believe how much rain.

  36. jen

    Thats the right wing term for an effective green activist. The types that chained themselves to bulldozers during the Franklin Dam protest

  37. jenauthor, I doubt the SFF vote will change as a result of the mayhem in Christchurch. It will be really interesting to see what happens to the ON vote. On the face of it, this must be very damaging to them.

  38. With pre-poll already open it will be interesting if there is any measureable change to voting intentions for the NSW election post the Massacre.

  40. briefly

    Yes. What has changed is their influence in weakening gun laws.

    With the other cross benches being basically anti gun Labor can be as strong as it likes on guns.

    Edit: It will be interesting to see what effect the massacre has on Mark Latham from the party that gave us Fraser Anning.

  41. NZ and guns

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/oceania/new-zealanders-panic-buy-guns-ahead-of-jacinda-ardern-s-crackdown-20190317-p514vv.html

    Christchurch: New Zealanders are “panic buying” guns in the wake of the Christchurch terror attack and in anticipation of the Government tightening gun laws.

    Following Jacinda Ardern’s comments on Saturday morning in the wake of the Christchurch terror attack, gun shop owners – at bricks and mortar stores and online – have experienced a jump in sales.
    :::
    On the Facebook group Kiwi Gun Blog, firearms owners and sellers said there was heightened buying of semi-automatic weapons, ammunition and magazines around the country on Saturday.
    :::
    A gun expert told Newsroom the shotgun first used by Tarrant at the Deans Ave mosque appeared to be a Mossberg 930 semi-automatic. This gun has a magazine capacity of seven rounds, and once he ran out of ammunition in the shotgun, he appeared to dump it and switch to an AR15.

    The AR15 is a semi-automatic sporting rifle, and among the most popular firearms currently sold.

  43. “On the face of it, this must be very damaging to them.”

    I hope so but am unsure. May end up being neutral. Cant see it being a positive though.

  44. The Living End
    ‏Verified account @thelivingendaus
    14h14 hours ago

    The Living End Retweeted Violent Soho

    This kid is welcome at any TLE show. Anytime. Anywhere. In egg boy we trust.

  46. Jen/zoid

    Well I am hoping we get some of that rain in Melbourne soon.

    Jen

    Yeah you could describe the clip as Chaplin like
    It gave me a very good chuckle!

  47. 12:03pm – https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2019/mar/17/new-zealand-attack-christchurch-in-mourning-after-mosque-massacre-latest-updates

    Police in Queensland have arrested a man after he drove his car into the gates of a mosque south of Brisbane overnight.

    Police allege that at 2.20pm on Saturday a 23-year-old man was stopped for a roadside drug test and was given a 24-hour driver’s licence suspension notice after he returned a positive result.

    But police say that once the man was released from custody, he returned to his car and drove it into the front gates of the Baitul Masroor mosque in Stockleigh, south of Brisbane.

    Police allege the man caused “minor damage” to the gates and “shouted offensive words through the open driver’s window towards the people inside, before driving home where he was located by police”.

  48. guytaur

    Not a bum steer in that the ‘eco-fascist’ name is indeed used at times by RWers to label environmentalists protesting/stopping some development.

  49. j
    People who believe democracy can’t be trusted to look after the environment and that therefore democracy, or elements of it, must go.

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