BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate maintains its steady course overall, but with signs of the Greens losing ground.

Another fairly uneventful week in the world of BludgerTrack, which has only nudged 0.1% in favour of Labor on two-party preferred and one on the seat projection (the gain being in New South Wales), despite their one-point improvements in the week’s Newspoll and Essential Research polls. If there’s anything worth noting, it’s that the Greens have fallen below 9%, and One Nation are back up after a recent dip. Both pollsters also produced new numbers for the leadership trends, the only observable movement on which is that Scott Morrison’s net approval is slightly improving, for no immediately obvious reason. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,561 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor”

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  1. C@tmomma @ #567 Friday, March 15th, 2019 – 5:31 pm

    citizen @ #560 Friday, March 15th, 2019 – 5:25 pm

    Why doesn’t Murdoch just give up? This is a worldwide movement and he has no hope of stopping it.

    Student strike a walk in park
    JACK THE INSIDER
    By the morning, our new overlord could be a 15-year-old girl who likes hip-hop, chatting with friends on FaceTime and global conquest. (Oz headline)

    JtI showing his age there.

    Anyway, she couldn’t possibly do a worse job than the klutz we have leading the country now.

    Agree, and if a 15 year old young woman chatting to her friends on social media can stop humans from destroying the planet then she would have my vote.

  2. ‘I’m glad Waleed Aly didn’t call out the offending politicians by name. We all know who they are.’
    He should have named them.
    WE might know what he was saying, the average punter wouldn’t have.
    Morrison is a disgrace.

  3. I venture to suggest that today’s events will not have cost the Shooters Farmers and Fishers Party a single vote.

  4. At the moment the Parliamentary Privileges Act prevents either House from expelling a member. But it could be amended to enable Senator Anning to be expelled. And while they are at it, they could amend the Electoral Act so that nobody who has been expelled from either House may be a candidate in future.

    Well worth doing, as an act of hygiene.

  5. Martini Henry

    So the guns are locked up nice and safe. Well where is the key? Of course it’s in the pocket of some person who if his screws become loose, can open up the safe and get the gun.

    That’s real security is it.

  6. Andrew Greene tweets..

    A couple of shocked Grafton locals I’ve spoken to this evening have described Brenton Tarrant as being a “very normal” high school student who excelled at rugby league and archery. Their town is stunned at today’s awful events in Christchurch

  7. Jacinta said:
    They are not one of us…
    sadly for Australia, he IS one of us.

    I hope our PM and Dutton stop running around calling the (mostly Muslim) refugees potential pedophiles and murderers. It doesn’t help.

  8. Psyclaw

    I was in the country last week and heard a local farmer lamenting that he had been invaded by corellas (a pest in that part of the WA wheatbelt) and wanted to despatch a few and scare the rest but had lost the key to his gun cabinet.

    Not sure what to make of that.

    Good that the cabinet was kept locked, not so good the key was floating about somewhere.

  9. I venture to suggest that today’s events will not have cost the Shooters Farmers and Fishers Party a single vote.

    Yes. Because clearly if only all of the mosque-goers had each been carrying their own gun, the massacre would have been prevented.

    So it goes with these pro-gun organisations. 🙁

  10. Bushfire Bill
    Friday, March 15th, 2019 – 8:07 pm
    Comment #734

    I couldn’t – and can’t – figure it out.

    ……and I trust that you never will.

  11. However, It has become very hard for either side of politics in NSW to form a government that relies upon the support of the Shooters, Farmers and Fishers.

  12. It’s a haunting thought but Grafton is a jail town. That is, it is one of the largest, if not the largest, employers of young, fit men who want to stick around and not leave town for work. So the thought occurred to me that Blair Tarrant may have been a prison guard and that that may have been where he learned to shoot, and hate Muslims. 🙁

  13. Terrible news from New Zealand. 49 people are dead and another 30 injured.

    I thought NZ had similar gun laws to us? Perhaps not.

  14. NZ gun laws are incredible lax compared to here. AR-15’s are allowed in the general population if they have a magazine of less than 8 bullets (and you can make magazines larger if you are so inclined).
    I was talk to a Kiwi at work this afternoon and he was saying last time they banned military style weapons only.

  15. C@t

    WTTE that Tarrant May have been a prison guard

    Not according to his CV which has been widely described over the past 4 or 5 hours. And Grafton is far more than a “prison town”.

  16. @Confessions

    It is highly likely he will lose his senate seat come May, however his party might pocket some electoral funds, if the party gets more than 4% of the vote in a state.

    Anyway I knew these far-right wing groups or individuals would do something like this or try and start a “race war” eventually.

  17. Our media have a lot to answer for – The West Australian glories in regularly publishing foul islamophobic letters.

    Our Government have a lot to answer for – demonising refugees to garner votes.

    The public response to this act of terrorism defies their cynical attempt to spread fear and hatred – most have discovered they’d rather love.

  18. No doubt Australian cops are scrambling to ascertain how Tarrant became ‘radicalised’.

    You don’t go out and kill people like this without serious hard core garbage getting into your head.

    None of which is an excuse.

    The story will out in due course including how long he was in NZ.

  19. Lynchpin:

    Peter DuttonVerified account@PeterDutton_MP
    3h3 hours ago
    The terror attack in New Zealand is a sickening attack on innocent men, women & children. It’s condemned in the strongest possible terms.

  20. You don’t go out and kill people like this without serious hard core garbage getting into your head.
    _______
    Maybe he gorged on Sky News after Dark.

  21. Well change of pace. I spent a glorious weekend at Golden Plains 13. A model alt music festival in Victoria with a beautiful bush setting, vibe and music.

    Cannabis and gum infused air, a massive fancy dress themed party. Egg andbacon sarnies from the community led kitchen. A free ferris wheel. A guide to the night sky from an astromer. An alt film festival. And a no dickhead policy that worked.

    Offered E and cocaine by a complete strangers … personal fave was a hand made with love Bloody Mary, again from a complete stranger.

    A violence free, joyous celebration of love, music and individuality. No commercial sponsorship or hard selling. Low key Police presence, free breath tests on exit. No ODs I was aware of.

    Restored my faith in humanity…

  22. I find this incredible.

    Drew HarwellVerified account@drewharwell
    7h7 hours ago

    The New Zealand massacre was livestreamed on Facebook, announced on 8chan, reposted on YouTube, commentated about on Reddit, and mirrored around the world before the tech companies could even react.

  23. It’s been a big week for liberal outrage: white Catholic prelate Pell and now white terrorists in Christchurch.

    Does outrage get any more “meaningful”?

  24. WOW ! Just watched Fox News coverage of the shooting. Extremely sensible, saying they will not even name the guy or show a picture of him. Very sober very responsible coverage. In other words the complete opposite of how they would have reported it if it was a muslim doing the shooting.

  25. It should be pointed out as the live stream footage shows harm coming to a child, it probably falls under the same laws as child pornography and therefore sharing it is a federal offence in Australia. And in other countries it likely the same too.

  26. I haven’t seen the livestream footage. I can’t imagine any of my Facebook friends sharing it or commenting on it.

  27. ABC has some information on Tarrant

    “Christchurch mosque gunman Brenton Tarrant worked as a personal trainer at Big River Gym in the northern New South Wales city of Grafton, the ABC can reveal.

    Gym manager Tracey Gray confirmed the man who filmed the attack and streamed it online was Tarrant.

    She said he worked at the gym after he finished school in 2009 until 2011, when he left to go travelling overseas in Asia and in Europe.

    “He was a very dedicated personal trainer,” Ms Gray said.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-15/christchurch-shooting-brenton-tarrant-what-we-know/10904744

  28. COnfessions -I didn’t think any here would be but we are all only 6 degrees of separation away from the most moronic of morons.

  29. He was radicalised in part by some of the attacks in Europe, where he was travelling at the time, and on an online alt-right echo chamber, I’ve seen the exact thread, he posted prior to commencing, DEFINITELY should have been on intelligence agency’s radar

  30. Morrison better to have more to say on this then “thoughts & prayers” no matter how fcuking “sincere” they are.

    What has been done to extend every possible assistance to NZ – although they may not want it.

    Can he assure Australians adequate measures have been/ are being put in place to stop copy cat attacks.

    As someone who has been big mouthed on National Security every which way for years AND for political reasons he needs to show compentence and leadership on this, not arsehat spin.

    Don’t hold your breath.

  31. I think two highlights on a black day:

    Tony Windsor nailed Morrison and the blood on his hands for his continual use of hate for political purposes, being a feeder that enables and emboldens the evil done today.

    The wonderful kids that want to save the planet from their stupid greedy and evil elders.

  32. BW “I venture to suggest that today’s events will not have cost the Shooters Farmers and Fishers Party a single vote.” why would it, or did you mean cost ON? Did you miss this white ISIS equivalent areshole used military style arms? This hero slaughtered defenseless civilians the same as Islamic extremists have done, what a fucking hero. Sow-reap.

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