BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate maintains its steady course overall, but with signs of the Greens losing ground.

Another fairly uneventful week in the world of BludgerTrack, which has only nudged 0.1% in favour of Labor on two-party preferred and one on the seat projection (the gain being in New South Wales), despite their one-point improvements in the week’s Newspoll and Essential Research polls. If there’s anything worth noting, it’s that the Greens have fallen below 9%, and One Nation are back up after a recent dip. Both pollsters also produced new numbers for the leadership trends, the only observable movement on which is that Scott Morrison’s net approval is slightly improving, for no immediately obvious reason. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,561 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor”

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  4. IF I was pm, on a day such as this including the link to an Australian citizen, I would have stood shoulder to shoulder with the alternate pm when addressing the media

    So the Nation sees what it should see – the rejection of what is now filling our News services by those who are elected to represent us

    That would be a powerful message not only to Australians but globally – because the Nationality of the perpetrator draws attention to Australia globally

  5. I’d wager there would have been plenty of “spooks” from various agencies monitoring today’s student protests on climate change.

    They would have been taking names, noting who said what. All to be filed away for future reference.

    Meanwhile, in NZ, a bloke nobody seems to have ever heard of despite evidence on social media of his extreme views, walks into a mosque …

  9. rossmcg

    I’d wager there would have been plenty of “spooks” from various agencies monitoring today’s student protests on climate change.

    They would have been taking names, noting who said what. All to be filed away for future reference.

    Meanwhile, in NZ, a bloke nobody seems to have ever heard of despite evidence on social media of his extreme views, walks into a mosque …

    Yeah, so much for the Spud and all the other draconian changes to our freedoms.

  10. I wonder if we will see more condemnations from political and media figures which say, in effect, “This is awful but…”?

  11. Sprocket

    Good question. Somebody motivated and/or trained this guy.

    Dutton has gone into hiding, amid threats his career is in danger. Nepotism is no barrier to incompetence.

    And yes, for all those billions spent on Border Farce, it was just a political stunt. Who on Manus Island has shot dead 40 people? Nobody. Who in the AFP watches far right groups in Australia? (And we already know we have a few.)

    The Paris attacks were blamed on lax security in Belgium. Given the easy travel between Australia and New Zealand, I wonder how much of this attack may be blamed on lax internal security in Australia? Too busy raiding AWU offices?

  12. BW, I agree, and that is the basis of my question. If there are no guns, ther is very little chance but there are plenty of sites (mostly USA) that document how the gun, the firing mechanism and the ammunition manage to find there way into the same bit of the space-time continuum and kill/injure someone.

  13. citizen@6:40pm
    “terrorists are, by default, assumed to be Muslims”
    Today evening I was discussing this terrorist attack with my daughter.
    I said “there is a saying that all terrorists are muslims but all Muslims are not terrorist”
    She looked bewildered and said “that is what I thought”
    Then I asked her whether she considers this as terrorist attack because a person terrorised and murdered many people . She said that yes it is a terrorist attack.

  16. Last year, the UK intelligence agency did warn that the extreme right wing groups were growing to become multi-national terrorist groups. If only that warning had been listen to. I suspect ASIO has dropped the ball on the right wing groups here.

  19. Had a high regard for Tony Windsor

    Sensible, grounded and genuine

    Even more so now given his contribution reported above

  20. Yes, you’d think the Minister for Home Affairs would have had something to say about this Home Grown Terrorist by now.

  22. I have no truck with any religion but what happened in Chistchurch today really gives me the shits!
    And as for Anning . . . . words fail me.

  23. DB
    A remarkable number of Americans get shot by a bullet that has gone through the neighbour’s wall and then their wall following a cleaning mishap.

  24. B.S. Fairman says:
    Friday, March 15, 2019 at 7:51 pm

    Last year, the UK intelligence agency did warn that the extreme right wing groups were growing to become multi-national terrorist groups. If only that warning had been listen to. I suspect ASIO has dropped the ball on the right wing groups here.

    I don’t think that’s so.

    There have been arrests relating to right wing groups planning attacks in Australia and I’ve seen and heard it being referred to as a situation of concern by the relative authority.

  25. I wonder if we will still keep sending Australian career criminals who happen to have NZ citizenship back to NZ now?

  31. ‘Socrates says:
    Friday, March 15, 2019 at 8:00 pm

    I wonder if we will still keep sending Australian career criminals who happen to have NZ citizenship back to NZ now?’

    We don’t send Australian career criminals to NZ.
    NZ would not take them.
    We send NZ career criminals back to NZ.

  33. Late Riser

    Noted

    But it is 2019 and the government has recourse to arrange for them both to be in the one location – within hours I would suggest

    To me, and others may disagree, but the sight of the Australia pm and the Australian alternate pm standing shoulder to shoulder before the media (so International media) delivering the same message would be a powerful statement on behalf of the Nation of Australia

    And it is a message we must send given the connection to Australia, a connection which will be the headline globally

  34. Boerwar

    That is what the law says. But when we are talking about people who have been here since before starting school, we produced them, just like we produced Tarrant. I think it is time we took responsibility for the (human) messes we created.

  35. Have been cruisin’ in downtown Queenstown tonight. It’s truly a cosmopolitan, interesting, even exciting place to be after dark. Beautiful too. The lake, the lights, the vibrancy of the place took me completely by surprise, in an upbeat sort of way.

    I wrote before, regarding the Christchurch shootings, of a solemn atmosphere that settled down onto the holiday park this afternoon where we have tethered our campervan for a couple of days.

    Not so on the Queenstown Strip. There is and was no sign tonight that 50 people had been murdered just down the road in Christchurch. As customers sat in bars watching slick Go-Pro-sponsored extreme sports videos – snowboarding, paragliding, jetboats, wingsuit gliding etc – on flatscreens above the spirits rack, there didn’t seem to be any time left over for consideration of what had just happened.

    When we went down to Queenstown there were “reports” of 20-odd murdered. Two hours later, as we returned, the cabbie told us 40. He had seen the full 17 minute snuff movie on YouTube. I got back to the van, from where I am posting this, to find it was 50.

    In the TV room here at the park this afternoon’s solemnity had evaporated. There were 30 young backpacker types watching Reality TV while cooking their dinners in the common room, without a care in the world. Next door in a smaller TV room precisely 2 people were watching a live coverage of the murders in Christchurch.

    Between here at the park or down in Queenstown tonight, not one person, either here in the park or downtown, mentioned the attack to me. When I deliberately brought it up, most just shrugged their shoulders. They literally didn’t care, despite being just a couple of hundred kilometres from one of the more horrifying mass murders of recent years.

    I couldn’t – and can’t – figure it out.

  36. Mr Dutton uses the impersonal third person passive to avoid having to say, “I condemn this attack in the strongest possible terms.’

    The result is that he is condemning the attack in the weakest possible terms.

    Dutton: cunning as a shithouse rat but without the ethics.

  40. ‘Socrates says:
    Friday, March 15, 2019 at 8:07 pm

    Boerwar

    That is what the law says. But when we are talking about people who have been here since before starting school, we produced them, just like we produced Tarrant. I think it is time we took responsibility for the (human) messes we created.’

    What? They did not create themselves? If NZ career criminals want to stay in Australia they had better divest themselves of NZ citizenship.

  41. So a legal question: ABC is now openly referring to “Christchurch mosque gunman Brenton Tarrant”. I remember the day after Port Arthur and news outlets were openly referring to Bryant as the perpetrator, and they got into legal trouble and had to retract the statement.

    Isn’t this the same?

  42. The students in New Zealand and Australia today, along with the adults that cheered them on are the true voice and values of our nations. Not the actions of the evil four or the hate rhetoric that inspired it.

    We must remember this at the ballot box.
    Its truly past time we changed the direction of our country

  43. We can tap people’s phones. We can intercept their encrypted messaging. We can infiltrate their networks and brag that our national security is being looked after.

    Yet we can’t detect Twitter Trash like today’s murderer? Really?

    So WHY do police have the powers they have?

  44. Kirky says:
    Friday, March 15, 2019 at 8:13 pm

    Whenever you use the word “but” it removes everything said before it.

    Not always.

    I like chicken, but I don’t like seafood. 🙂

  45. Re my comments earlier on MT’s tweet, I don’t think there was anything wrong with what he said just that today wasn’t the day to say it.

    Regarding Windsor’s tweet, I think you know my view of Windsor and he seldom says anything to change that view. He didn’t again with that tweet.

  46. Big A Adrian

    Might be ok as it is in another country. NZ police guy very firm on not naming names now the guy has been charged.

  48. @ LateRiser
    Raining continuously on our side of Mt Cootha. Had 40mm since we took the grandkids to ballet at 330pm. Enoggera Ck so dry most of its soaked in, but has started to flow for the first time since January. Hoping for lots more- not storms, just steady,soaking rain. While Dorothea Mackellar comes to mind, for me its that great poem “Said Hanrahan”.
    Hope you’re getting this as well, but storm rain does seem to be hit and miss,doesn’t it?

  49. Big A Adrian says:
    Friday, March 15, 2019 at 8:18 pm
    So a legal question: ABC is now openly referring to “Christchurch mosque gunman Brenton Tarrant”. I remember the day after Port Arthur and news outlets were openly referring to Bryant as the perpetrator, and they got into legal trouble and had to retract the statement.

    Isn’t this the same?
    *******************
    No, because it is the ABC broadcasting in Australia, the case will be dealt with by the NZ justice system.

    There is presumed no influence on any potential local jury.

    Of course in todays international media world, that is a bit of a furphy. We saw similar with the Pell issue.

  50. One of my grandchildren attended the Kid’s Strike today.
    He is only six months old so he is getting in early.
    He is also the member of the family who will be experiencing most Global Warming.

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