The latest fortnightly result from Essential Research follows Newspoll in recording a one-point move to Labor, who now lead 53-47 on two-party preferred. As reported by The Guardian, the primary votes have the Coalition down a point to 37%, Labor up a point to 38%, the Greens down a point to 8% (their weakest result in any poll since September 2016) and One Nation up a point to 7%. The pollster’s leadership ratings (which they normally do monthly, but this is the first set since January) have Scott Morrison steady on 43% approval and up two on disapproval to 41%, Bill Shorten up three to 38% and down three to 44%, and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister at 44-31, compared with 42-30 last time.
Other findings relate to climate change and asylum seekers. On the former cont, 62% express belief in climate change caused by human activity, and 51% say Australia is not doing enough to address it. On the latter, 52% believed the government was acting out of genuine concern in reopening Christmas Island while 48% said it was a political ploy (suggesting there was no uncommitted option, which would be unusual for Essential). Also featured was an occasion suite of questions on best party to handle various issues, which seems to have produced typical results, with the Coalition stronger on broader protection and economic management and Labor stronger on the environment, wages, health and education, as well as housing affordability. The full report should be with us later today.
UPDATE: Full report here. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1089.
Late Riser
I wondered similarly about Yates. I think he chose Frydenberg as symbolic, being Deputy Liberal Leader and Treasurer. So Yates is making a statement. I will be interested to find out if he is indeed not putting out preferences, because surely if his reason for standing is Coalition inaction on climate change he would be keen for his voters not to preference Frydenberg.
Uzzi gets a ton!
Pegasus says:
Wednesday, March 13, 2019 at 9:07 pm
The world doesn’t revolve you, I see that Late Riser has given a considered response.
He’s not a Green! 😆
LR
The Greens always run a candidate in Kooyong. Why wouldn’t they this upcoming election?
Burnside is absolutely serious about winning the seat. He resides in Kooyong and has done so for a long time. He is passionate about issues such as human rights, asylum seekers and refugees, and climate change.
These issues resonate in an electorate such as Kooyong.
Individuals want to donate to his campaign. A third target has now been set such is the interest in Burnside. No one is twisting their arms to donate and the donations are specifically for his campaign.
GG
One of these two needs to bat to nearly the end of the innings. Otherwise there may be one of those sudden momentum-losing mini-collapses and a final score of 280.
As I typed that Khawaja went out!!! cursed.
barney
“Did I address my question only to you?
It is a general question to anyone here.”
This is dishonest, it was clearly to Peg. It was a response to what she said.
Whether or not Stewart can succeed in Kooyong, the Gs have chosen to try to make it difficult for either Stewart or Yates to win. They will divide the counter-Lib vote without adding much if anything to it. The Gs really want to maintain their franchise on climate change politics. It’s vital to them that this issue is not resolved – that climate change does not get mainstreamed and become a province of Indy-Lib opinion. They will spoil the ground for others.
Regarding preferences, it would be interesting if Labor, Greens and Yates just advocated for voters to put Josh last.
B in CM
LR not a Greens. Colour me surprised. His fanciful ‘theory’ gave it away.
Barney – I think if Frydenberg went down under 45 primary (big if, but there were very big swings in the constituent state seats), you would need around 90% of the rest to do that and one of them would win.
Maybe they should have consulted Glenn Druery?
“They will spoil the ground for others.”
yeah, politics would be so much easier if there were fewer parties… Bluddy Gs, how dare they place candidates in all seats like they always do… Making it hard by giving voters a choice… I mean why do they need a choice? There should just be one Party, right????
Otherwise there may be one of those sudden momentum-losing mini-collapses and a final score of 280.
Why did I say that?? Australia 3/178, Maxwell out.
What a difference 2 years makes.
Then:
And now:
Astrobleme @ #1208 Wednesday, March 13th, 2019 – 6:22 pm
I don’t know how you get a desire for fewer political parties from briefly’s comment from which you are quoting.
Interesting that no one in Melbourne gives a flying duck about NZ.
Stood at the start of fox glacier in 1976, they were complaining then it had melted a hundred meters or so ( long forgotten the exact details) from the walkway built for the tourists. Walkway will now be long gone and where I stood will be a long way from ice, it was melting fast. Drove up the west coast it was mainly dirt roads, I assume it is now tar and cement. Been half way up mount cook ( I am no climber). It’s a lovely place, Tasmania on steroids.
I was a cheeky 22 year old; when asked where I wanted to sit, next to a red head was my reply. Guess what, request granted; I got a religious ear bashing all the way over. Perhaps there is a god.
Astroblem
I started to compose a post in a similar vein to yours but then saw yours.
All hail the Labor Party!
Stuff democracy!
Ms Berejiklian forgets that Polices, Nurses and Teachers ARE Public Sevants!
https://www.smh.com.au/nsw-election-2019/premier-brands-alp-s-public-sector-wages-policy-a-pay-rise-for-middle-managers-20190313-p513z3.html
Labor’s policy is to apply to ALL Public Servants. NOT just ‘middle managers’.
The Greens won just under 19% of the primary vote in Kooyong at the last election, Julian Burnside has a reasonable chance of winning Kooyong, provided a good preference flow overwhelming and Frydenberg’s primary vote going below 40-45%.
Astrobleme says:
Wednesday, March 13, 2019 at 9:17 pm
While Peg’s comment prompted the question, I deliberately didn’t link my question to her comment for the exact reason I’ve stated, it was a general question that I was throwing out there.
See I’m responding to your comment, so I’ve linked it.
Your mind reading powers are seriously lacking and your accusation is offensive.
She doesn’t have much ticker if a policy to give a payrise to public servants scares her.
What does she think about the analysis reported today that climate change is going to make many parts of the country (including in NSW) uninsurable? She must’ve been hiding under the bed for that one.
Confessions
“Whether or not Stewart can succeed in Kooyong, the Gs have chosen to try to make it difficult for either Stewart or Yates to win. They will divide the counter-Lib vote without adding much if anything to it. ”
They did well in Kooyong last time…
Barney
“While Peg’s comment prompted the question”… Yes… Yes it did.
Briefly
We have preferential voting. So the voting system is exactly like in Wentworth. We found out Liberal voters can send their preferences clearly.
What we don’t know is if the Kooyong voters are going to do a Hawthorn. If it’s the latter Labor are going to win no matter what the Greens do. The attacks on Burnside are misguided.
Either he is going to be irrelevant because it’s going to be another Hawthorn decision or it’s going to be a Wentworth and preference flows of many candidates will elect a high profile candidate.
That happens to be Burnside as being most like Phelps with media presence on both Climate and Asylum seekers
Edit: sorry assuming Frydenberg loses enough primary votes of course
Tristo
But who will Labor preference?
“But who will Labor preference?”
FAMILY FIRST!?!
Confessions
Coalition people promising to ‘cut the public service’ never mention police, nurses, teachers.
Similarly when they talk about ‘half of Australians’ not contributing to tax they conveniently forget to mention that by far the biggest group they are talking about are pensioners. And of course they also ignore the tax ‘contribution’ that even these ‘leaners’ (Coalition term) make via the Coalition’s very own GST!
Astrobleme @ #1218 Wednesday, March 13th, 2019 – 6:31 pm
This does not say that briefly wants to see fewer parties contesting elections.
As to the Greens in Kooyong, yes they did do well last time, and had they bothered to prepare Burnside for the campaign they wouldn’t have damaged his candidacy in the first few days after he’d announced!
Greensborough Growler @ #1150 Wednesday, March 13th, 2019 – 8:08 pm
Listen to some real music, GG. Its only about 5 minutes. Vivaldi – Cum dederit. The words mean “For he brings rest to those he has chosen.” I really believe that it will make you feel better. You have been through a lot, and we all expect that it will take you some time to come to terms with it.
Astrobleme says:
Wednesday, March 13, 2019 at 9:34 pm
So?
What’s your point.
Do you think I’m lying?
Stop Adani Kooyong
I wasn’t aware this was a thing.
Given the nature of the seat, an open cut coal mine cannot be justified.
Seriously, I can see the parallel between Wentworth and Kooyong, however, this is a general election, and the (reasonably) popular sitting member is contesting the seat.
Rocket Rocket collapse going beautifully – 4/182.
Feel like I am really involved – cricket finals time of year!
“Do you think I’m lying?”
Why, you wanna punch me in the nose?
Labor supporters attacking Burnside, in a seat Labor has no chance of winning, nail their colours to the mast. They prefer a ‘loose cannon’, an independent Liberal, rather than a progressive left-wing Greens.
Does anyone know what other policy positions Yates holds? Is he an economic conservative, for example?
Astrobleme says:
Wednesday, March 13, 2019 at 9:39 pm
Pathetic!
Or firefighters. The assumption is they’re all volunteers, but there are reasonable numbers of staff employed by state govts in fire and emergency services.
Tristo says:
Wednesday, March 13, 2019 at 9:29 pm
The Greens won just under 19% of the primary vote in Kooyong at the last election, Julian Burnside has a reasonable chance of winning Kooyong, provided a good preference flow overwhelming and Frydenberg’s primary vote going below 40-45%.
57.6 primary to Josh; assume a 6% swing ( very likely in Vic I think).51.6 primary. There has to be something to hook the Liberal voters. I don’t think it will be a Green candidate; but who knows.
Pegasus says:
Wednesday, March 13, 2019 at 9:40 pm
Labor supporters attacking Burnside, in a seat Labor has no chance of winning, nail their colours to the mast. They prefer a ‘loose cannon’, an independent Liberal, rather than a progressive left-wing Greens.
…
Labor got more votes than the greens. But I agree; Labor has n chance; nor does Burnside.
Rocket
On the Cali death penalty. It was restored by a citizens ballot. Hopefully won’t happen again.
frednk
Barely. Burnside has a far higher public profile than the previous Greens candidate. And a greater profile than the current Labor candidate. Stewart who?
John Quiggin – Opportunity costs: can carbon taxing become a positive-sum game?
https://aeon.co/ideas/opportunity-costs-can-carbon-taxing-become-a-positive-sum-game
Johnn Quiggin is professor of economics at the University of Queensland in Brisbane. He is the author of Zombie Economics (2010), and his latest book is Economics in Two Lessons: Why Markets Work So Well, and Why They Can Fail So Badly (forthcoming, 2019).
Fun fact: Gavin Newsom’s first wife is currently dating Donald Trump Jnr.
I’m not attacking anyone. I was making a point about campaign dynamics – especially about the importance to the Gs of the climate change debate. The more mainstream it becomes, the less purchase the Gs have on the theme; while at the same time they use it to assail Labor. That’s odd considering the seat and the ID of the sitting member.
Kooyong is a case study in the existential struggle of the Gs. They’re not unique. Other parties also face existential challenges in this election.
My only comment on Brexit!!!
Briefly
The Greens vote is not dramatically falling.
Being right on Climate doesn’t hurt the Greens.
If Frydenberg wins his seat its no proof the Greens are in existential crisis any more than it is for Labor.
All it proves is Frydenberg and allies were successful in getting both parties to fight each other instead of the LNP.
“Kooyong is a case study in the existential struggle of the Gs. ”
This makes no sense.
swamprat @ #1240 Wednesday, March 13th, 2019 – 6:58 pm
I’ll raise ya!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xABJ3sWKIxI
“Whether or not Stewart can succeed in Kooyong, the Gs have chosen to try to make it difficult for either Stewart or Yates to win. They will divide the counter-Lib vote without adding much if anything to it.”
translation: if Stewart or Yates can’t convince the voters to elect them on their own merits…. ITS THE GREENS FAULT!!
guytaur….the Gs do not want the politics of climate change resolved, just as they go not want refugee politics resolved. These are their staple lines. Without them they have nothing to campaign with. They will try to defeat their competitors, including in particular the Indy voices – voices that are a direct competitive menace.
Sometimes I can’t believe my eyes.
First the Greens were evil for targeting seats held by Labor.
Then they were evil for targeting seats which were held by the coalition but Labor had a chance of winning.
Now they’re evil for targeting Kooyong.
FoxtrotMikeDelta!
All the contra-Labor voices will struggle in this election. Voters will choose change…change that involves voting against conservative incumbents. This will happen on a massive scale.