BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor (still)

No new grist for the BludgerTrack mill this week, but there’s a Greenpeace-sponsored federal poll and some preselection news to relate.

There haven’t been any new polls this week, so the headline to this post isn’t news as such – the point is that a new thread is needed, and this is it. Developments worth noting:

• We do have one new poll, but it was privately conducted and so doesn’t count as canonical so far as BludgerTrack is concerned. The poll in question was conducted by uComms/ReachTEL for Greenpeace last Wednesday from a sample of 2134, and has primary votes of Coalition 38.8%, Labor 36.7%, Greens 9.7% and One Nation 6.1%. A 53-47 two-party split is reported based on respondent-allocated preferences, but it would actually have been around 51.5-48.5 based on preferences from 2016. The poll also features attitudinal questions on carbon emissions and government priorities, which you can read all about here.

• The Greens have landed a high-profile candidate in Julian Burnside, human rights lawyer and refugee advocate, to run against Josh Frydenberg in the normally blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Kooyong. This further complicates a contest that already featured independent hopeful Oliver Yates, former Liberal Party member and chief executive of the Clean Energy Finance Corporation.

• The Liberal preselection to choose a successor to Julie Bishop in Curtin will be determined by a vote of 60 delegates on Sunday. Initial reports suggested the front-runners were Celia Hammond, former vice-chancellor of Notre Dame University, and Erin Watson-Lynn, director of Asialink Diplomacy at the University of Melbourne, which some interpreted as a proxy battle between bitter rivals Mathias Cormann and Julie Bishop. However, both have hit heavy weather over the past week, with concerns raised over Hammond’s social conservatism and Watson-Lynn’s past tweets critical of the Liberal Party. Andrew Tillett of the Financial Review reports that some within the party believe a third nominee, Aurizon manager Anna Dartnell, could skate through the middle.

Tom Richardson of InDaily reports moderate faction efforts to install a male candidate – James Stevens, chief-of-staff to Premier Steve Marshall – in Christopher Pyne’s seat of Sturt are prompting a slew of conservative-aligned women to nominate against him. These include Deepa Mathew, a manager at the Commonwealth Bank and state candidate for Enfield last year; Joanna Andrew, a partner with law firm Mellor Olsson; and Jocelyn Sutcliffe, a lawyer with Tindall Gask Bentley. However, Stevens remains the “overwhelming favourite”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,867 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor (still)”

Comments Page 6 of 58
1 5 6 7 58
  1. Keane

    Politicians — even some in the Liberal Party — eventually got the message: voters were getting jack of neoliberalism and wanted an economy that worked for them, not for the Mike Kanes and Grant Kings and Alan Joyces of the world. But business figures remain in deep denial. Even after the banking royal commission, even after their own political party has turned on them, even after electorates around the world have turned on the free trade, deregulatory and pro-corporate economic agenda, even as neoliberalism is rolled back.
    Why are they so out of touch? Because the only contact they have with ordinary Australians, or even their own workforces, is via focus groups, their only evidence delivered in a balance sheet, their only perspective is from their multi-million dollar home to their comfortable office via a luxury car. The Canberra bubble has nothing on the bubble of delusion Australia’s business elite and their media enablers dwell in.

  2. No offence to our WA comrades, but the West (Scomo) saying the election will be down to WA is quite ludicrous if the swing is anything like predicted.

    It’ll be over by 10 past 6 p.m. in the eastern states.

    WA will be that little bit of whipped cream that makes the cake all the more delicious!

  3. lizzie….Burnside has just dropped a bomb on his campaign. He should expect to see the G PV crash….good thing even if unintended…

    The G operators in Melbourne’s inner suburbs will be shaking their heads in disbelief. Many years of on-the-ground-campaigning have just gone up in smoke.

  4. A good way to avoid being likened to a Nazi, whatever one’s heritage, is to avoid running appalling state controlled camps where people who do not belong to the dominant ethnic group are grouped together and exposed to deliberately awful conditions, with a number of them dying in the process, with the primary goal being to whip up political support amongst the earlier mentioned dominant group at the cost of human suffering and blood. You could also try not involving the military in this campaign of persecution and not using disturbing levels of secrecy to reduce that nasty Reich vibe. Oh, and it would also help not to accuse anyone who criticises these arrangements of being in favour of these undesirables raping our women and stealing our hospital beds and so on.

    But I guess it’s easier to screech about anti-semitism than to confront that truth.

  5. briefly @ #253 Thursday, March 7th, 2019 – 1:40 pm

    lizzie….Burnside has just dropped a bomb on his campaign. He should expect to see the G PV crash….good thing even if unintended…

    The G operators in Melbourne’s inner suburbs will be shaking their heads in disbelief. Many years of on-the-ground-campaigning have just gone up in smoke.

    Has there ever been a more devastating own goal?

  6. While we’re likening people to Nazis, anyone promoting new coal projects is deliberately and actively working to kill millions, if not hundreds of millions, of humans and destroy a vast proportion of the natural world in exchange for money.

    These people are enemies of humanity and enemies of nature. They must hate and wish harm upon their own children and grandchildren as much as they hate the rest of us. They are like anti-vaxxers but worse, because their criminal greed and disregard for science will harm every single one of us.

    They need to watch out. I detect a very real, very strong seachange in relation to this issue. Everyone I speak to about it is getting angrier and more militant by the day.

  7. Astrobleme @ #246 Thursday, March 7th, 2019 – 1:36 pm

    “oops almost did a Godwin ”

    Why is Godwin’s Law a thing?
    Why are we not allowed to use Nazis as an example of ‘badness’?

    The original Godwin’s Law didn’t make a judgement – it just pointed out that the longer a flame war went on, the higher the chance of one side or the other putting up a ‘Nazi’ analogy.

    Later on, it became accepted that those who did so lost the argument automatically. But of course this is not always true – sometimes the analogy is correct.

  8. lizzie, I once drove a clapped out Ford XB through the Bylong Valley – with pantyhose fan belt for half the way, and when it failed the bonnet chocked open and very slowly the rest.

    It is a stunningly beautiful area.

  9. Burnside has shown he’s just unfit to serve the voters of Kooyong. It only took 2 days. Quick work by Burnside. Anyone in Kooyong that wants to express their displeasure with the Liberals will choose either Labor or the Indy.

  10. briefly @ #261 Thursday, March 7th, 2019 – 1:51 pm

    Burnside has shown he’s just unfit to serve the voters of Kooyong. It only took 2 days. Quick work by Burnside. Anyone in Kooyong that wants to express their displeasure with the Liberals will choose either Labor or the Indy.

    As you’ve said many times already. Don’t you have anything better to do than engage in this mindless repetition?

    Burnside’s analogy was actually correct, but like the idiots in the CPG, you’re just obsessed with the optics.

  11. So, briefly, the Libs and their cheerleaders are allowed to literally depict others as Nazis, but when someone makes a not unreasonable comparison between certain Nazi policies and offshore detention that person is an anti-semite?

    https://theconversation.com/election-2013-the-role-of-the-media-17543

    Having a jewish MP does not make a hard right wing party immune from comparison to the Nazis.

    You sound like a hysterical Labor right hack who hates the Greens. And leaping to allegations of anti-semitism is despicable and intellectually bankrupt.

    Again, this is the Libs. Remember the other day how all refugees were rapists? In the Howard years they were all terrorists, as I recall. These scum deserve no protection from criticism.

  12. The last actual Greens power act in relation to asylum seekers was to vote for exactly the same Act as Labor. The Greens total REAL contribution to that Act was less than 1% of the vote in the House of Reps but they are as accountable for the Act as Labor.

    Apart from that, on asylum seekers, the Greens have generated 3 decades worth of demands, proposals, cries of outrage, condemnations and denunciations – not forgetting blocking initiatives that might just have made a real difference such as the Malaysian Solution. In other words, the Greens contribution has been ZIP.

    Along comes Burnside. Star candidate.

    Burnside, in a lengthy interview with the ABC nominates his top two issues as being Global Warming and Asylum Seekers. Everyone knows that Morrison and Taylor want to use tax money to burn more coal. Does Burnside mention them by name? No.

    Everyone knows that Morrison and Dutton are, in the real world, the arch bastardizers of asylum seekers. Does Burnside mention THEM by name?

    Fuck no.

    The classic Greens arsehole gets stuck into Bill Shorten by name. Five years of Kill Bill by Abbott, Turnbull, Morrison, Di Natale and now Burnside.

    Does Burnside mention the real world issues generated by falling living standards? No.

    Does Burnside endorse all Greens policies including on Olympic Dam, closing down the cotton industry and turning the ADF into a light mobile force? Yes.

    Then Burnside klutzes into death taxes.

    Then Burnside klutzes into Goering same same line.

    Of course the Greens defend their star candidate! The Greens start wailing.

    Global Warming is not even on the agenda any more. Refugees are not on the agenda anymore.

    Because Burnside has managed to turn his candidature into a shitfight about Burnside.

    What a political genius!

  13. “closing down the cotton industry”

    You really are keen to have plenty of cotton in our hellish, overheated, drought-ravaged future, aren’t you?

  14. GG…this election is going to be a watershed for all the Contra-Labor voices, including the Gs.

    They have done themselves no favours this week.

    Decoy games…the IEDs of Australian politics….

  15. Is Briefly a bot?
    “Burnside has shown he’s just unfit to serve the voters of Kooyong. It only took 2 days. Quick work by Burnside. Anyone in Kooyong that wants to express their displeasure with the Liberals will choose either Labor or the Indy.”

    seriously?
    Even after he was shown his claims were wrong?
    Seems he just wants to promote mis-information.

  16. Jen

    I am sure I am not alone in hoping you are right and we are celebrating early in WA.
    But I also hope that WA voters will act responsibly and rid us of Porter (Pearce), Irons (Swan) and Hastie (Canning). Keenan (Stirling) has already jumped ship and hopefully his replacement is Labor.

    I have no beef with Wyatt (Hasluck). From most accounts he is, unlike the others named, a decent person. But he too is in line to go.

  17. I am not a Green voter – (used to be) but I can see nothing wrong with what Burnside has said. Both quotes are spot on and relevant.

    Also think this should not be an excuse for getting stuck in to the Greens, yep criticize for voting intentions / direction in parliament etc. but not this believe there should be more quotes like Burnsides he called out the BS

  18. briefly @ #224 Thursday, March 7th, 2019 – 12:16 pm

    ar….Burnside should know better.

    In the sense that any politician should know that quoting a Nazi, in any context, is fraught with peril, absolutely.

    However the people feigning outrage (Frydenburg included) and taking Burnside’s comment out of context to make it look like some sort of anti-Semitic slur should also know better.

  19. Boerwar!

    “Does Burnside endorse all Greens policies including on Olympic Dam, closing down the cotton industry and turning the ADF into a light mobile force? Yes.

    Then Burnside klutzes into death taxes.

    Then Burnside klutzes into Goering same same line.”

    You are learning buddy! No more closing of Olympic dam or complete disarmament talk!
    So he endorses Greens policies! Great!

    Ohhhh but wait:
    “Then Burnside klutzes into death taxes.”
    well… There is merit in them…

    “Then Burnside klutzes into Goering same same line.”
    Errr…. well the Goering line was specific to Scott Morrison… So… Hmmm

    Keep trying Boerwar, you’ll get it right soon! I see hope!

  20. SCOUT @ #274 Thursday, March 7th, 2019 – 2:04 pm

    I am not a Green voter – (used to be) but I can see nothing wrong with what Burnside has said. Both quotes are spot on and relevant.

    Also think this should not be an excuse for getting stuck in to the Greens, yep criticize for voting intentions / direction in parliament etc. but not this believe there should be more quotes like Burnsides he called out the BS

    It’s become fashionable among the right to weaponise antisemitism

  21. Player One
    “The original Godwin’s Law didn’t make a judgement – it just pointed out that the longer a flame war went on, the higher the chance of one side or the other putting up a ‘Nazi’ analogy.

    Later on, it became accepted that those who did so lost the argument automatically. But of course this is not always true – sometimes the analogy is correct.”

    Thanks, I did wonder why using Nazi quotes was verbotten.
    I am all for using Goebbels quotes – the man had a way with words – and speaks of evil things we should strive to avoid.

  22. lizzie @ #256 Thursday, March 7th, 2019 – 1:42 pm

    @LockTheGate
    3h3 hours ago

    Kepco can’t escape climate reality any longer. In addition to producing at least 197.4 Mt worth of greenhouse gas emissions, the proposed mine would also destroy farmland adjacent to the Greater Blue Mountains World Heritage Area. #Time2Choose

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/mar/06/korean-company-planning-bylong-valley-mine-dismisses-climate-threat

    There is another Korean company, Kores, which has just been given the green light by Melissa Price to rip up the Central Coast Yarramalong Valley, right next to our aquifers and water supply, and mine Coal. It’s not their country, it’s not their water, they don’t care, but the industrial revolution in South Korea is what they want to keep powering and that is all they care about.

    The only way we can stop them is by electing a Labor government. Despite whatever The Greens try and say otherwise. Also, despite what the Coalition try and tell us about Coal being the source of lower power prices. You can’t get a cheaper source of power than free sun and free wind. All you need to do to benefit from it is build the infrastructure once.

  23. briefly @ #272 Thursday, March 7th, 2019 – 2:00 pm

    GG…this election is going to be a watershed for all the Contra-Labor voices, including the Gs.

    They have done themselves no favours this week.

    Decoy games…the IEDs of Australian politics….

    Frydenberg had a bad day yesterday with the national Accounts and has a fight on in his local seat.

    Yet, because of Burnsides indiscipline and lack of basic political savvy all the Greens supporters here today are doing is defending Burnside about a Nazi slur. Some have even gone as far as justify the use of Nazi comparisons. That only compounds the image of a Party and a person way out of their campaigning depth.

    The Greens don’t want to be talking about Nazi in this context. But, they are!

  24. Any number of bludgers might try to excuse, explain away or deny the political content of Burnside’s quote.

    Nothing will change the message that will be received by voters in Kooyong. Burnside has likened the party to which they’ve been aligned for most of their voting lives with the Nazis. He’s implicitly stated that Frydenberg is Nazi-like. Burnside has gone a step further than this. He’s quoted Goering – approvingly – to defile his political enemies.

    Deny it as much as you like. Melbourne’s Jewish community will be appalled. I’m astonished.

  25. lizzie

    Obviously crying out to be decorated with an open cut mine then

    They have already destroyed so much to the east of there. It just never ends. They wont stop until they dig up the whole damn area from Newcastle to Mudgee. Corporate Responsibility, along with the invisible hand, is a boot to the head of the already prone environment… with the Liberal Party cheering it on.

  26. GG

    “Yet, because of Burnsides indiscipline and lack of basic political savvy all the Greens supporters here today are doing is defending Burnside about a Nazi slur. Some have even gone as far as justify the use of Nazi comparisons.”

    Are you claiming that no one can ever use the words of Goebbels to show that something is bad?

  27. “Nothing will change the message that will be received by voters in Kooyong. Burnside has likened the party to which they’ve been aligned for most of their voting lives with the Nazis. He’s implicitly stated that Frydenberg is Nazi-like. Burnside has gone a step further than this. He’s quoted Goering – approvingly – to defile his political enemies.”

    This suggests that you have some sort of psychic powers… Do you think you are superhuman?

  28. Astrobleme @ #290 Thursday, March 7th, 2019 – 2:18 pm

    GG

    “Yet, because of Burnsides indiscipline and lack of basic political savvy all the Greens supporters here today are doing is defending Burnside about a Nazi slur. Some have even gone as far as justify the use of Nazi comparisons.”

    Are you claiming that no one can ever use the words of Goebbels to show that something is bad?

    I’m asserting that using quotes from Nazis to make any point in an Australian Election is poison to the campaign because it always ends badly for the quoter.

    Have a look at Ratsak’s comment at 10.23. It tells you all you really need to know about the topic.

  29. Are you claiming that no one can ever use the words of Goebbels to show that something is bad?

    A politician running in a largely Jewish electorate against a Jewish candidate if they were half smart wouldn’t.

  30. Speculation on Laundy’s seat:

    Former NSW deputy police commissioner Nick Kaldas is being courted to run for the Liberal Party in the federal seat of Reid.

    Current member Craig Laundy is expected to retire from politics before the likely May election, with the Liberals attempting to draft in Mr Kaldas as his replacement.

    A push poll was conducted in the seat last night, with voters asked if they knew Mr Laundy or Mr Kaldas.

    Local branch member Tanya Baini, a close friend of NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian, was also mentioned.

    Liberal Party sources believe it is a way to gather data to convince Mr Kaldas he can win the seat.

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/liberal-bid-to-persuade-nick-kaldas-to-fill-expected-craig-laundy-vacancy-20190307-p512fm.html

  31. SCOUT @ #237 Thursday, March 7th, 2019 – 12:32 pm

    what has Burnside actually said that has fired up so many posters?

    Here’s the entirety of the thing:

    Apparently if you tilt your head, cross your eyes, and squint just right it turns into a ‘Nazi slur’ that ‘implicitly states Frydenburg is Nazi-like’ (and somehow, despite being a slur, approves of Goering’s remark…all in a single tweet!). Like one of those ‘Magic Eye’ pictures from the 90’s. Except with Nazis.

    Doesn’t work when I try it, though. All I ever manage to see is a cynical but valid comment on Morrison’s possible electoral strategy. 🙂

  32. citizen @ #294 Thursday, March 7th, 2019 – 2:27 pm

    Speculation on Laundy’s seat:

    Former NSW deputy police commissioner Nick Kaldas is being courted to run for the Liberal Party in the federal seat of Reid.

    Current member Craig Laundy is expected to retire from politics before the likely May election, with the Liberals attempting to draft in Mr Kaldas as his replacement.

    A push poll was conducted in the seat last night, with voters asked if they knew Mr Laundy or Mr Kaldas.

    Local branch member Tanya Baini, a close friend of NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian, was also mentioned.

    Liberal Party sources believe it is a way to gather data to convince Mr Kaldas he can win the seat.

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/liberal-bid-to-persuade-nick-kaldas-to-fill-expected-craig-laundy-vacancy-20190307-p512fm.html

    The Libs ran a whole swag of ex-police in the Victorian election allegedly in winnable seats. None got up!

  33. poroti
    Asked 10 times, Premier refuses to say how soon stadium demolition will start

    Part of the reason could be that the Land & Environment Court ruling is open to appeal.

  34. “I’m asserting that using quotes from Nazis to make any point in an Australian Election is poison to the campaign because it always ends badly for the quoter.”

    Sounds like crap to me.

Comments Page 6 of 58
1 5 6 7 58

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *