BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor (still)

No new grist for the BludgerTrack mill this week, but there’s a Greenpeace-sponsored federal poll and some preselection news to relate.

There haven’t been any new polls this week, so the headline to this post isn’t news as such – the point is that a new thread is needed, and this is it. Developments worth noting:

• We do have one new poll, but it was privately conducted and so doesn’t count as canonical so far as BludgerTrack is concerned. The poll in question was conducted by uComms/ReachTEL for Greenpeace last Wednesday from a sample of 2134, and has primary votes of Coalition 38.8%, Labor 36.7%, Greens 9.7% and One Nation 6.1%. A 53-47 two-party split is reported based on respondent-allocated preferences, but it would actually have been around 51.5-48.5 based on preferences from 2016. The poll also features attitudinal questions on carbon emissions and government priorities, which you can read all about here.

• The Greens have landed a high-profile candidate in Julian Burnside, human rights lawyer and refugee advocate, to run against Josh Frydenberg in the normally blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Kooyong. This further complicates a contest that already featured independent hopeful Oliver Yates, former Liberal Party member and chief executive of the Clean Energy Finance Corporation.

• The Liberal preselection to choose a successor to Julie Bishop in Curtin will be determined by a vote of 60 delegates on Sunday. Initial reports suggested the front-runners were Celia Hammond, former vice-chancellor of Notre Dame University, and Erin Watson-Lynn, director of Asialink Diplomacy at the University of Melbourne, which some interpreted as a proxy battle between bitter rivals Mathias Cormann and Julie Bishop. However, both have hit heavy weather over the past week, with concerns raised over Hammond’s social conservatism and Watson-Lynn’s past tweets critical of the Liberal Party. Andrew Tillett of the Financial Review reports that some within the party believe a third nominee, Aurizon manager Anna Dartnell, could skate through the middle.

Tom Richardson of InDaily reports moderate faction efforts to install a male candidate – James Stevens, chief-of-staff to Premier Steve Marshall – in Christopher Pyne’s seat of Sturt are prompting a slew of conservative-aligned women to nominate against him. These include Deepa Mathew, a manager at the Commonwealth Bank and state candidate for Enfield last year; Joanna Andrew, a partner with law firm Mellor Olsson; and Jocelyn Sutcliffe, a lawyer with Tindall Gask Bentley. However, Stevens remains the “overwhelming favourite”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,867 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor (still)”

  1. Yet more damning evidence of the lengths the Catholic Church, especially in Melbourne under then-Archbishop George Pell, goes to in order to crush the voices of those its clergy abuses:

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria/church-knew-pell-was-at-centre-of-decades-old-lurid-sex-claims-20190307-p512ci.html

    It is particularly infuriating to read current Archbishop Peter Comensoli’s pathetic excuse for refusing to confess to his Church’s long-standing awareness of multiple accusations of depravity and criminality by Pedophile Pell: that there was “nothing in his files” about any of them except, conveniently, those that made it to the public glare of the courts.

    Either the records of these complaints were disposed of to protect Pell and others around him, or those records were never kept in the first place. Both demonstrate that the Catholic Church is not to be trusted in properly reporting instances of child sexual abuse by its ordained clergy, if left to their own processes – processes which were set up by a perpetrator of such crimes himself! Talk about them putting the fox in charge of the henhouse.

    The Catholic Church must be made accountable to the laws and norms of the civil society upon which it has attached itself for sustenance. It is time for its ordained class to be made answerable to an outside, independent, non-religious agency, empowered to vet all applications for promotion both into and within the clergy, and to supervise all investigations of complaints into clergy, to ensure all complaints which should be referred to police are referred, and to both gather and protect any evidence that might determine the truth of any complaint, before the Church can sully or remove it.

  2. Lizzie
    “Energy in Australia, a pro-coal website and Facebook group with significant reach, was taken offline following our questions on Project Caesar. It used slick video, graphics and data to spread anti-renewable, pro clean coal messaging.”

    Hard to believe they closed this down for any other reason than knowing someone was onto them. It was unlikely to be an attack of conscience.

  3. Psephological question: if we know both the extent to which prepoll votes tend to lean more Coalition (say) in a given seat relative to election day votes , and we also know how much more of a percentage of all votes this election were cast prepoll compared to last election, is that sufficient information to make reliable projections of a final seat count from progressive election night counts?

  4. For anyone with a functioning brain and the time (>1 hr), you can hear some thoughts and background on and from Julian Burnside in discussion on Wilosophy, pre-candidature
    Doubt much would’ve changed in his outlook since then, nor his ability to speak straight to the heart of how the ALP and LNP have colluded over recent decades to degrade Australia’s treatment of asylum seekers to the point of utter inhumanity
    Some of the fools here might even learn something if they bother to listen, including that he and his wife have taken asylum seekers into their own home after and in response to the Tampa saga

    Far more erudite and direct than the BS, spite and carping you get here from the GGBWBriefly brigade

    WILOSOPHY with Julian Burnside
    https://omny.fm/shows/wilosophy/wilosophy-with-julian-burnside

  5. The more that comes out about Pell the worse it looks. This article also details several people in the church who lost their jobs after questioning his background. You have to wonder how much money the catholic church has spent defending him over many years? Should other individuals now be facing similar charges to those of Bishop Wilson?

    “If the ex-seminarian’s claims are included, there are nine known allegations about sexual misconduct against Pell, ranging from exposure to assault, although only two – his sexual abuse of the choirboys – have been upheld by a court.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria/church-knew-pell-was-at-centre-of-decades-old-lurid-sex-claims-20190307-p512ci.html

  6. GG

    I was just about to post that. Between them retail and construction make up about 70% of the economy. Given what they are (+0.1% growth) it would take some miraculous trade and investment figures for this not to be another quarter of anemic growth, and declining real incomes. 3 in a row! ScumMo’s one real achievement. No need to wait for a recession. In personal terms it is already here.

    Where did that surplus go again?

  7. Perhaps inadvertently, perhaps deliberately, Burnside has likened Frydenberg to Goering. What on earth was he thinking!! The Jewish community in Melbourne and elsewhere will draw their own conclusions about the Greens.

    By any standard, in styling a Jew as a Nazi, Burnside has made an anti-Semitic statement. He should withdraw it and apologise. The Greens would be well advised to cancel their endorsement of Burnside before he gets them into even more trouble.

    Considering Burnside has made a name for himself as an advocate for the politically- and racially-exploited, he really should have known better.

    Manus and Nauru have been used as political prisons by the LNP but they are not concentration/extermination camps. Refugees have not been selected for murder or for enslavement. They have been vilified, in just the same way as Burnside has set out to vilify his opponent. He’s done so with exactly the same kind of motives in mind – to procure a political advantage.

    Burnside is quite obviously totally unfit to represent the people of Kooyong. He should withdraw.

  8. Michael A 1243pm

    You can make approximations which is what Antony’s algorithms do, but it is getting harder as more and more people vote pre-poll.

    In the Victorian election the polling companies all underestimated Labor’s TPP by around 2% despite in their last polls asking people if they had already voted. You would think if people who had voted answered honestly that would have significantly reduced their margin of error as say one third of those polled were ‘set in stone ‘

    Which makes me think there are some systematic issues with polling now. I will be fascinated to see if this plays out the same in NSW as it has. WA and Victoria

  9. Socrates,

    You’d have to say an interest rate cut must be on the cards.

    I’m guessing the Libs might go with a “fist full of cash” campaign mirage which they successfully executed back in 1977. If I remember, they took all the money back before it could be distributed the next year.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AuN0jj_lCXQ

  10. briefly @ #211 Thursday, March 7th, 2019 – 12:57 pm

    Perhaps inadvertently, perhaps deliberately, Burnside has likened Frydenberg to Goering. What on earth was he thinking!! The Jewish community in Melbourne and elsewhere will draw their own conclusions about the Greens.

    By any standard, in styling a Jew as a Nazi, Burnside has made an anti-Semitic statement. He should withdraw it and apologise. The Greens would be well advised to cancel their endorsement of Burnside before he gets them into even more trouble.

    Considering Burnside has made a name for himself as an advocate for the politically- and racially-exploited, he really should have known better.

    Manus and Nauru have been used as political prisons by the LNP but they are not concentration/extermination camps. Refugees have not been selected for murder or for enslavement. They have been vilified, in just the same way as Burnside has set out to vilify his opponent. He’s done so with exactly the same kind of motives in mind – to procure a political advantage.

    Burnside is quite obviously totally unfit to represent the people of Kooyong. He should withdraw.

    Yes Burnside should withdraw for having the temerity to campaign against the use of the torture camps on Manus/Nauru.

    He should do whats right and cravenly fall in behind Morrison on offshore torture camps like Labor has done the past 6 yrs.

  11. briefly @ #204 Thursday, March 7th, 2019 – 11:57 am

    Burnside has likened Frydenberg to Goering

    No, the comment he made on twitter was actually about Morrison (or for full accuracy, ‘#ScoMo’).

    Frydenberg then jumped in and falsely claimed the remark had something to do with likening offshore detention to Nazis.

    And then how we’ve now gone from that to the twitter comment somehow being personally about Frydenberg, I have no fucking idea.

    Everyone involved needs to raise their game. Just a little bit. Please?

  12. simon holmes à court

    thank you @AngusTaylorMP for the inspiration to write this piece.

    feel free to challenge me on any point — but i know you won’t, because you know you are lying.

    In a carbon constrained global economy, Australia is once again the lucky country. Our boundless plains are windswept and sun-drenched. Extraordinary quantities of clean energy are ours for the taking — to harness for the production of energy intensive materials, to export as hydrogen-based chemicals or even to send to Indonesia and beyond by long distance undersea cables.

    The Coalition needs to stop lying on emissions and come back with a credible climate policy that delivers our fair share of global carbon reductions and positions our economy to take full advantage of the opportunities before us.

    Maybe the best climate policy right now would be to call an election?

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/mar/07/australias-energy-policy-is-a-tangled-mess-built-on-a-foundation-of-lies?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

  13. a r @ #216 Thursday, March 7th, 2019 – 1:10 pm

    briefly @ #204 Thursday, March 7th, 2019 – 11:57 am

    Burnside has likened Frydenberg to Goering

    No, the comment he made on twitter was actually about Morrison (or for full accuracy, ‘#ScoMo’).

    Frydenberg then jumped in and falsely claimed the remark had something to do with likening offshore detention to Nazis.

    And then how we’ve now gone from that to the twitter comment somehow being personally about Frydenberg, I have no fucking idea.

    Everyone involved needs to raise their game. Just a little bit. Please?

    It’s little wonder the Independent/minor party vote is rising.

  14. Rex Douglas
    says:
    Thursday, March 7, 2019 at 1:12 pm
    Labors cowardice re the torture camps and asylum seekers will haunt leader Shorten for the rest of his political life.
    _______________
    No way! he’s long forgotten about the Chiquita mushroom workers he sold out to climb a rung. he wont be giving the refugees a seconds thought. He has his Prime Ministerial legacy to start thinking about.

  15. ar….Burnside should know better.

    But in any case, he has spoiled his own campaign in Kooyong and most likely the campaigns of every Green candidate in Melbourne and beyond.

  16. This story is right in Briefly’s wheelhouse. Anti green with bullshit anti-Semitic allegations. Either Briefly is Andrew Bolt incognito, or he’s doing a fantastic impression of him.

  17. “Perhaps inadvertently, perhaps deliberately, Burnside has likened Frydenberg to Goering.”

    No he didn’t.

    This place is chock full of misinformation about the Greens.
    It’s almost as if you are deliberately spreading fake news.

  18. sprocket_ says:
    Thursday, March 7, 2019 at 12:52 pm
    All us on the East coast don’t matter, according to the Liar from the Shire.

    I don’t know how to tell Scomo but it will be all over for him long before WA seat results start jumping across his TV screen on election night. I doubt he will even bother to watch any of it. He will be too busy with the shredder directives he will put out to several dept heads.

    First on the list be Border Security and Treasury

  19. GG

    You are probably right about the interest rate cuts, though as the RBA knows once you get down to 2% further cuts have little effect. Labor’s reforms are not only desirable. They are needed to restart the economy.

  20. adrian….yeah, Burnside would have been well-advised to reflect on that before he opened his mouth.

    ….but not to worry. He has damned the Green campaigns where it matters most to their chances – in Melbourne’s inner suburban seats. This is a good thing. Voters should know what they’re actually getting when they vote.

    Day 1 for Candidate Burnside was a shambles.
    Day 2 for Candidate Burnside is even worse.

  21. Astrobleme @ #225 Thursday, March 7th, 2019 – 1:19 pm

    “Perhaps inadvertently, perhaps deliberately, Burnside has likened Frydenberg to Goering.”

    No he didn’t.

    This place is chock full of misinformation about the Greens.
    It’s almost as if you are deliberately spreading fake news.

    I sadly have to agree.

    Mistruths and misrepresentations are on the increase and when called out there’s sadly never any apology or correction.

    PB shouldn’t become a place for partisan fake news.

  22. Michael

    Sorry I missed that you had posted on the same Pell article as me.

    “Either the records of these complaints were disposed of to protect Pell and others around him, or those records were never kept in the first place. ”

    This is indeed suspicious. When I was active in the Catholic Church it was meticulous about record keeping.

  23. “adrian….yeah, Burnside would have been well-advised to reflect on that before he opened his mouth.

    ….but not to worry. He has damned the Green campaigns where it matters most to their chances – in Melbourne’s inner suburban seats. This is a good thing. Voters should know what they’re actually getting when they vote.”

    What’s interesting to me is that the discussion here doesn’t care about the substance of what he said (which is true, and is useful as a warning re:Goebbels), it is more about the ‘appearance’ of what he said. It’s the same thing many people criticise about the Canberra Press Gallery.

    The Nazis developed a powerful propaganda machine and it is useful to refer to them when Govt’s start using the same tactic. This Govt’s tactics should be exposed for what they are.

  24. Socrates

    When I was active in the Catholic Church it was meticulous about record keeping.

    Hey, so were the………………………………oops almost did a Godwin 😆

  25. Clearly, Morrison will NEVER address the protections some religious organisations enjoy.

    Will Shorten ever have the courage for such reform ..?

  26. Simon² Katich®
    says:
    Thursday, March 7, 2019 at 1:34 pm
    I mean how many Bludgers has Briefly alleged were anti-Semitic now? 4 or 5?
    Ummm….. clears throat….
    ___________________________
    Yes I was going to mention that. You were my only victim and I’ve apologised. 🙂

  27. It will be all over before the polls close in WA.They only have 5 at risk seats.It wont be that close.Delusional Scomo as usual.

  28. “oops almost did a Godwin ”

    Why is Godwin’s Law a thing?
    Why are we not allowed to use Nazis as an example of ‘badness’?

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