BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor (still)

No new grist for the BludgerTrack mill this week, but there’s a Greenpeace-sponsored federal poll and some preselection news to relate.

There haven’t been any new polls this week, so the headline to this post isn’t news as such – the point is that a new thread is needed, and this is it. Developments worth noting:

• We do have one new poll, but it was privately conducted and so doesn’t count as canonical so far as BludgerTrack is concerned. The poll in question was conducted by uComms/ReachTEL for Greenpeace last Wednesday from a sample of 2134, and has primary votes of Coalition 38.8%, Labor 36.7%, Greens 9.7% and One Nation 6.1%. A 53-47 two-party split is reported based on respondent-allocated preferences, but it would actually have been around 51.5-48.5 based on preferences from 2016. The poll also features attitudinal questions on carbon emissions and government priorities, which you can read all about here.

• The Greens have landed a high-profile candidate in Julian Burnside, human rights lawyer and refugee advocate, to run against Josh Frydenberg in the normally blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Kooyong. This further complicates a contest that already featured independent hopeful Oliver Yates, former Liberal Party member and chief executive of the Clean Energy Finance Corporation.

• The Liberal preselection to choose a successor to Julie Bishop in Curtin will be determined by a vote of 60 delegates on Sunday. Initial reports suggested the front-runners were Celia Hammond, former vice-chancellor of Notre Dame University, and Erin Watson-Lynn, director of Asialink Diplomacy at the University of Melbourne, which some interpreted as a proxy battle between bitter rivals Mathias Cormann and Julie Bishop. However, both have hit heavy weather over the past week, with concerns raised over Hammond’s social conservatism and Watson-Lynn’s past tweets critical of the Liberal Party. Andrew Tillett of the Financial Review reports that some within the party believe a third nominee, Aurizon manager Anna Dartnell, could skate through the middle.

Tom Richardson of InDaily reports moderate faction efforts to install a male candidate – James Stevens, chief-of-staff to Premier Steve Marshall – in Christopher Pyne’s seat of Sturt are prompting a slew of conservative-aligned women to nominate against him. These include Deepa Mathew, a manager at the Commonwealth Bank and state candidate for Enfield last year; Joanna Andrew, a partner with law firm Mellor Olsson; and Jocelyn Sutcliffe, a lawyer with Tindall Gask Bentley. However, Stevens remains the “overwhelming favourite”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,867 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor (still)”

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  1. Democrats block Fox News from televising debates after report on Trump ties

    The Democratic National Committee will not allow Fox News to televise any of its candidates’ political debates through 2020, citing a report on the conservative media network’s ties to U.S. President Donald Trump, the Washington Post reported on Wednesday.

    “Recent reporting in the New Yorker on the inappropriate relationship between President Trump, his administration and Fox News has led me to conclude that the network is not in a position to host a fair and neutral debate for our candidates,” DNC Chairman Tom Perez said in a statement to the Post. “Therefore, Fox News will not serve as a media partner for the 2020 Democratic primary debates.”

  2. There was an old story in banking to “never trust a solicitor with a cheque book”

    And it basically stood the test of time

    Even to solicitors such as Howard and Costello – what was Frydenberg if he had a past life?

    Perhaps this is why the “Green” candidate has not responded to Frydenberg’s train wreck presentation yesterday – he is yet another solicitor

  3. Give us this day our daily bread (and pies… lots of pies); and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who….. (nah bugger that bit)…. lead us not into temptation (WTF?) but deliver us from evil (evil leftys and greenies).

  4. Roman Quaedvlieg
    1h1 hour ago

    It’s almost beyond comprehension that someone whose full time job is representing farmers doesn’t have the policy cogency to recall and discuss issues in his area of putative expertise. It’s like asking a Treasurer about tax policy or a Defence minister about troop deployments.

  5. Put me down for 53-47 in NP for the Goodies…….
    Today, the West newspaper, which is morphing into MurdWest, has a presidential-looking Morrison gazing lovingly out on we Sandgropers with the header, “It’s Down To Perth” ………… save Australia/the Liberal Party/his own political skin I suppose.
    In an “Exclusive Interview” by Sarah Martin (like what other paper is in town?) the West’s in-house, tame-cat, Federal Political Editor (Andrew Probyn – all is forgiven – come back) we are told by Scomo that “Bill Shorten is………already………drunk with power…….”.
    Anyway, the Libs are going after Cowan according to him, confident of holding all their current seats, and thereby we in the Golden West will be on the road to the next boom.
    There is no mention of the over 6% unemployment here or the total fiasco of the gutted/broke Liberal party…………………….
    The West has pitched in again with some vague, unrelated issue – straight after Morrison’s total failure of a trip to CI, about some so-called AS sending unsavoury messages via the internet. Boy, this is really scraping the barrel.
    In the name of fairness the West does, on page 8, admit the “Economy is in a slump as home price falls bite” from another “Canberra” correspondent.
    This piece is far removed from the crap spread out for us by Morrison and the West elsewhere.

  6. @knausc (reporter, Guardian Aus)

    Energy in Australia, a pro-coal website and Facebook group with significant reach, was taken offline following our questions on Project Caesar. It used slick video, graphics and data to spread anti-renewable, pro clean coal messaging.

  7. I’m having a discussion on Twitter atm with a bloke who seems to think that Labor’s access-to-termination policy is going to lose them the election because the silent moral majority are going to “head to the trenches” to fight this, and the vast majority of people will join them.

    Bloke is deluded.

  8. Personally, I hope that Julian Burnside gets up.

    I don’t see him as someone who will kowtow to a foolish but fixed party position.He might actually use his own brain.

  9. I’m having a discussion on Twitter atm with a bloke who seems to think that Labor’s access-to-termination policy is going to lose them the election…

    It will be interesting what it does in Tasmania.

    In general, it is hard to see the Libs using it effectively in a 3 word slogan.

  10. Burgey @ #153 Thursday, March 7th, 2019 – 10:37 am

    I’m having a discussion on Twitter atm with a bloke who seems to think that Labor’s access-to-termination policy is going to lose them the election because the silent moral majority are going to “head to the trenches” to fight this, and the vast majority of people will join them.

    Bloke is deluded.

    Would that be the same ‘silent majority’ that was going to stop marriage equality? Because they were super-effective at that one. 🙂

  11. I refuse to believe that proliferation of violent games/videos doesn’t have an effect.

    Sally Rugg
    20h20 hours ago

    .@steam_games is hosting a game called Rape Day, which lets you ‘play’ a rapist attacking women.

    Last year, Change,org successfully pushed Steam to have a school-shooting game removed from the platform and petition starter Sheryl is hoping to do the same:

  12. SK

    I thought they already had one.

    Fly to Melbourne

    The Andrews government should charge Tasmania Health for the service. I am sure Tasmanian women would be happy to tell VicHealth which state they are from.

  13. hi all not sure if this has been brought to the attention of the grand master of the blog.
    but the heading 53.2 to 47.8 =101.

    just saying

  14. Unions will hold nationwide anti-Coalition protests during the federal election campaign, with tens of thousands of workers expected to walk off the job on April 10.

    A meeting of the ACTU executive in Melbourne today passed a resolution calling on workers to join the capital city protests next month.

    “The ACTU calls on working people to stand up for the fair go, for fair wage rises and better job security, by participating in national political protests on the 10th of April 2019,’’ the resolution, seen by The Australian, says.

    “If we do not stand up for the fair go and demand political parties take action to turn around inequality, we will see the Americanisation of our society.

    “This is not something Australian unions are prepared to accept.’’

    The resolution condemns the Morrison government for policies which have seen workers “suffer the largest declines in living standards in decades while the wealth of billionaires continues to soar’’.

  15. I’m having a discussion on Twitter atm with a bloke who seems to think that Labor’s access-to-termination policy is going to lose them the election because the silent moral majority are going to “head to the trenches” to fight this, and the vast majority of people will join them.

    Hiroo Onoda? Someone needs to send on of the anti-gay marriage campaign leaders over to the Philippines to bring the poor lad home.

  16. Tricot

    Morrison thinks it’s all down to Perth.

    I will be very disappointed if the election result is not obvious before the polls even close in WA.

  17. S2K,

    Tasmania highlights the issue perfectly.

    Abortion is legal, but no one offers it.

    Bringing it into Public hospitals addresses that problem of access and reduces the cost, so the economics don’t provide a barrier.

  18. I will be very disappointed if the election result is not obvious before the polls even close in WA.

    Stunned (excepting Labor blowing itself up of course)…

    Antony might not be calling it that early, but by 7:30 the result should be pretty obvious.

  19. S2K,
    Tasmania highlights the issue perfectly.

    Indeed. It is already an issue there that peeps (especially younger female peeps) are talking about.

  20. lizzie @ #224 Thursday, March 7th, 2019 – 10:55 am

    The small and medium business sectors have expressed concern after Opposition leader Bill Shorten all but confirmed he will boost the minimum wage to a “living wage” should he win the next election.

    Someone has already said it, but who could argue against a “living wage”?

    the muffin lady

  21. I believe that there is a current train of thought that with the record numbers of punters voting early at pre polling centres it might now have an effect on announcing the vote counts on the night of the election. There could be delays.

  22. Burgs,

    Yeah, no fucking votes in it for them. I’m sure plenty of people who are quite intelligent (for Liberals) will have already been telling Robinson to stfu about it. The religious folk most passionate about it (to the point of voting specifically on this one issue) are already well in the Coalition camp.

    A party seeking to try and pretend it gives a single fuck about the modern aspirations of the vast majority of modern women won’t be trying to turn this one into a campaign issue. The flogging they copped over gay marriage is far too fresh for such foolishness. You won’t hear a single peep about it from Abbott I’ll wager. He’s already in more than enough shit and he knows it.

  23. Scotty in full election mode running around like a headless chicken in total desperation for a vote. Shorten is just biding his time until it really matters.


    I crave a boon. When investigating Outline relating to the qualities
    i.e. The Australian -I came on this pretentious little item ⏫ and thence to the following which I liken to a suitable description of the article in question.

    To give Pyne and former defence ministers Marise Payne and David Johnson credit, they have been able to make a series of major defence purchases with an efficiency that eluded the Rudd and Gillard governments.


    Pyne has channelled the legendary South Australian premier Thomas Playford, who exploited the emergency of World War II to persuade the federal director of munitions, BHP’s Essington Lewis, to base shipbuilding, aircraft and other armaments in the state. Following the war, Playford was similarly successful in gaining federal government support and steep tariff protection for the nascent motor industry.

    Using my tried and (mostly bullshit) excuse to exit stage left and head out on today’s expedition to play the local ATM prior to visiting the lovelies at the hot bread shop – where was I ❓ Oh yes – the above has made my almost glaucoma free eyes water so much as to lead me to the wonderful pics available at:-

    And so, as the sun sinks slowly behind the bulk of the gentlemen pictured by Yabba, I bid a fond farewell as I gird my elderly self with suitable apparel to amaze and delight the unwary/ungodly unspectingly going about their lawful business at the local shopping centre.

    Upon my return I will proceed to make dreams become reality with a prototype version of a home made submarine

    Which will be an

    enterprise that dwarfs the former Labor government’s creation of the NBN.

    The boon ❓ Dunno – I just like the sound of this ancient expression.


  25. I found it interesting that Steve Price on 3aw last night was asking his listeners to phone in and tell him how they thought things were going economically. Is there a down turn and if so how are they experiencing it personally? His own take on it was that there are signs that things are starting to look pretty ‘grim’ (his word).

    When your own supporters start saying things like that you are really in trouble.

  26. Scummo still going with that stupid line from yesterday about the only people who will get wage growth under Shorten are people smugglers.

  27. zoomster @ #105 Thursday, March 7th, 2019 – 10:21 am

    The recycling crisis has come about not because we’re not collecting recyclables but because there’s nothing to do with them once they’re collected.

    Collecting more recyclables via a cash for cans systems just adds to the pile of recyclables we can’t get rid of.

    Not saying it shouldn’t be done, but it’s a bit pointless to introduce it until the end problem of disposal has been solved.

    On that note — in one NSW shopping centre we visited, there was a huge blue booth in the parking lot. It was an automatic recycling centre – you put your cans, bottles etc in and (I presume) it spat out the requisite cash return. It was very busy, so I couldn’t investigate it fully.

    All recycled cans, both aluminium and stee, are recycled in Australia, and have been since cans started to be used for soft drinks. I personally wrote the recycling weighbridge and onwards logistics software (in Dataflex) for Visy way back, and installed it in Adelaide, Perth, Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane and Auckland. The SA version had the refund processing built in, and generated the invoices from, and payments to all suppliers of cans and bottles to the recycling centre.

    The current problems relate to paper/cardboard and PET and HDPE plastic, because China has imposed much stiffer purity requirements which we can’t meet.

    Visy and Amcor still take the same proportion of cardboard/paper as they always did, recycling it into carboard boxes.

    Australian glass bottle manufacturers still use as much recycled glass as is possible, within processing practicalities, since doing so is much more energy efficient, and hence cheaper, than not doing so. The biggest problem with glass recycling is that idiots put broken Pyrex in their recycle bins, and sorting this out in the recycling machinery is very difficult.

    PET can be easily recycled into more PET bottles, or polyester shirts, but we are not much good at that.
    Separating plastic into single type streams is not easy at all.

  28. 😀


    Breaking news:
    Josh Frydenburg finally after several failed LNP treasurers drives the Australian economy into recession.

    Hockey and Morrison gave it their best shot but Josh finally succeeded.

  29. Morrison just claimed the Liberals want all industries to go forward. Grab that quote Labor. Then show Hockey and last days of Holden.

  30. There could be delays.

    Absolutely. Antony and other commentators will quite correctly hold fire in seats that could flip if the prepolls are significantly different to the election day booths.

    But that won’t mean the result of the election won’t be 99% known pretty early on. Just that wise commentators will be cautious to say it’s looking dire rather than absolutely done and dusted.

  31. Josh Frydenburg finally after several failed LNP treasurers drives the Australian economy into recession.

    Hockey and Morrison gave it their best shot but Josh finally succeeded.

    One of the few things they could unite around to provide a real team effort.

  32. ‘Sohar says:
    Thursday, March 7, 2019 at 10:28 am

    It is a bit rich of some of the precious ones on this blog to criticize Burnside for quoting a Nazi…’

    Perhaps Burnside should prove your point by putting extracts of Mein Kampf on his facebook page?

    The point is that the Greens hero Burnside, who could previously say pretty much anything he wanted to anytime he wanted to because no-one was actually listening, has suddenly entered the real world where words make a difference.

    Out of half a thousand MPs around Australia, Burnside named Shorten for a bit of the old pizzling. That matters.

    Quoting Goering, a guy who helped murder 7 million people, matters – even if Goering was right in that particular quote.

    But I guess that bit of nuance is utterly beyond some Greens commentators.

  33. ratsak,

    The last Vic State Election showed the vote on election day was better for Labor than votes cast prior to election day.

    This may make Antony more timid about declaring too early.

  34. Pegasus says:
    Thursday, March 7, 2019 at 10:51 am

    The Greens party has proposed such a measure….’

    The Great Proposers strike again.

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