BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor (still)

No new grist for the BludgerTrack mill this week, but there’s a Greenpeace-sponsored federal poll and some preselection news to relate.

There haven’t been any new polls this week, so the headline to this post isn’t news as such – the point is that a new thread is needed, and this is it. Developments worth noting:

• We do have one new poll, but it was privately conducted and so doesn’t count as canonical so far as BludgerTrack is concerned. The poll in question was conducted by uComms/ReachTEL for Greenpeace last Wednesday from a sample of 2134, and has primary votes of Coalition 38.8%, Labor 36.7%, Greens 9.7% and One Nation 6.1%. A 53-47 two-party split is reported based on respondent-allocated preferences, but it would actually have been around 51.5-48.5 based on preferences from 2016. The poll also features attitudinal questions on carbon emissions and government priorities, which you can read all about here.

• The Greens have landed a high-profile candidate in Julian Burnside, human rights lawyer and refugee advocate, to run against Josh Frydenberg in the normally blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Kooyong. This further complicates a contest that already featured independent hopeful Oliver Yates, former Liberal Party member and chief executive of the Clean Energy Finance Corporation.

• The Liberal preselection to choose a successor to Julie Bishop in Curtin will be determined by a vote of 60 delegates on Sunday. Initial reports suggested the front-runners were Celia Hammond, former vice-chancellor of Notre Dame University, and Erin Watson-Lynn, director of Asialink Diplomacy at the University of Melbourne, which some interpreted as a proxy battle between bitter rivals Mathias Cormann and Julie Bishop. However, both have hit heavy weather over the past week, with concerns raised over Hammond’s social conservatism and Watson-Lynn’s past tweets critical of the Liberal Party. Andrew Tillett of the Financial Review reports that some within the party believe a third nominee, Aurizon manager Anna Dartnell, could skate through the middle.

Tom Richardson of InDaily reports moderate faction efforts to install a male candidate – James Stevens, chief-of-staff to Premier Steve Marshall – in Christopher Pyne’s seat of Sturt are prompting a slew of conservative-aligned women to nominate against him. These include Deepa Mathew, a manager at the Commonwealth Bank and state candidate for Enfield last year; Joanna Andrew, a partner with law firm Mellor Olsson; and Jocelyn Sutcliffe, a lawyer with Tindall Gask Bentley. However, Stevens remains the “overwhelming favourite”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,867 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor (still)”

  1. ACTU wants 250,000 at ‘political’ strike

    1:03PMEWIN HANNAN
    ACTU secretary Sally McManus says unions will target the government in a mass walkout during the election campaign.

  2. Astrobleme @ #298 Thursday, March 7th, 2019 – 1:30 pm

    “I’m asserting that using quotes from Nazis to make any point in an Australian Election is poison to the campaign because it always ends badly for the quoter.”

    Sounds like crap to me.

    No, that much may well be entirely true. A comment can be valid and a strategic blunder at the same time.

    The crap part is when people who should know better knowingly assist in creating that outcome by intentionally taking things out of context and ascribing to them meanings that were never there.

  3. Astrobleme @ #298 Thursday, March 7th, 2019 – 2:30 pm

    “I’m asserting that using quotes from Nazis to make any point in an Australian Election is poison to the campaign because it always ends badly for the quoter.”

    Sounds like crap to me.

    I’m certain Frydenberg will encourage you to keep on crapping on about it. He’s already got one article in the Oz and I’m sure him playing the victim to nasty Greens’ slurs will help him win his seat again.

    So, fill your boots.

  4. Maybe Julian will ask Josh if would like to debate the issue.. my guess is Josh won’t be up to it.

    The more Julian is criticised for his remarks the stronger his point becomes.

  5. I just can’t wait for Trumps combover when it just won’t combover anymore. It’s getting thinner and thinner by the day

    The vain bastard will take it very hard.

  6. Astrobleme @ #290 Thursday, March 7th, 2019 – 2:18 pm


    Don’t waste your breathe; GG BW and Briefly turn into irrational zealots when it comes to anything GREEN and will not be counselled. Its a shame because they are all very sharp observers and contributors to this site otherwise IMHO. Mention anything to do with the Greens and they become somebody else.

  7. jeffemu says: Thursday, March 7, 2019 at 2:39 pm

    I just can’t wait for Trumps combover when it just won’t combover anymore. It’s getting thinner and thinner by the day

    The vain bastard will take it very hard.

    *********************************************************

    A Preview :

  8. An interesting read – it just shows that a change of government and strong will for cultural & social change can sometimes bring about good things and a better society: Change the Government and you change the nation still holds true.
    The largely Protestant “unionist” community has outnumbered the more “nationalist” Catholics, while many moderates and non-aligned voters have been swayed by the fact that the Republic was poorer and more socially regressive than the UK.

    Not any more. Higher birth rates mean the Catholics in the north will overhaul the Protestants within a few years, and the richer and more socially progressive territory is now the Republic, which has a gay Prime Minister and has updated its abortion, divorce and gay marriage laws while Northern Ireland continues to limit access to abortion.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2019/03/07/brexit-northern-ireland/

  9. C@tmomma says: Thursday, March 7, 2019 at 2:46 pm

    jeffemu @ #306 Thursday, March 7th, 2019 – 2:39 pm

    I just can’t wait for Trumps combover when it just won’t combover anymore. It’s getting thinner and thinner by the day

    The vain bastard will take it very hard.

    He’ll get hair plugs. I’m amazed he hasn’t already.

    *******************************************************

    Donald Trump’s Hair Mystery Solved: He had Scalp Reduction Surgery

    Donald Trump, the President of the United States, has longed denied that he wore a toupee. Alas, he is telling the truth. In a 1990 divorce deposition, under oath, Ivana Trump swore that in a fit of rage, Donald raped her because of the pain he was suffering resulting from his scalp reduction surgery in 1989.

    Donald’s scalp reduction, also known as alopecia reduction (AR), is most successfully performed on patients with balding on the crown on the head, according to HairtransplantMentor.com “The procedure, which essentially cuts out the patient’s bald spot, follows these steps: Under anesthesia, the surgeon cuts away the balding area of the scalp. Usually a portion somewhere between the crown and the vertex transitional point is removed. The remaining skin (which is able to grow hair) is sewn back together.”

    https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trumps-hair-mystery-solved-he-had-scalp-reduction_us_58966965e4b061551b3dff8a

  10. Astrobleme says: at 1:32 pm

    The Nazis developed a powerful propaganda machine and it is useful to refer to them when Govt’s start using the same tactic. This Govt’s tactics should be exposed for what they are.

    Yep. The Nazis happily explained all sorts of the manipulations they deployed. These were being used long before the war and the nastiness that ensued, and we should all be awake to them.

    I am happy that Daley had a go at Jones. I am also happy that Shorten refused a meeting with Murdoch. Perhaps it’s time we stopped letting the hard right determine how debate is framed?

  11. ar

    All I ever manage to see is a cynical but valid comment on Morrison’s possible electoral strategy.

    A strategy that has been suggested/pointed to/speculated on quite a number of times in the Bludger Lounge.

  12. Sceptic says:
    Thursday, March 7, 2019 at 2:30 pm
    poroti
    Asked 10 times, Premier refuses to say how soon stadium demolition will start

    Part of the reason could be that the Land & Environment Court ruling is open to appeal.

    According to the ABC, demolition has been continuing despite the injunction not yet being lifted.

    Live footage of the Sydney Football Stadium at Moore Park shows the interior being dismantled by diggers and bobcats despite ongoing legal challenges over its demolition.

    Opposition Leader Michael Daley questioned the extent of the tear-down in the face of an injunction that is not due to be lifted in the Land and Environment Court until this afternoon.

    “I’m not an engineer but they’re not ripping wallpaper off in there,” he said.

    “The injunction hasn’t run out yet and you can hear the bashing and smashing and destruction and crashing behind us now.

    “There’s a bit of explaining to do.”

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-07/sydney-stadium-demolition-despite-injunction/10878428

  13. For the information of the suddenly Burnside haters.

    No one is talking about Burnside. Its all Coal Christmas Island waste of money etc.

    The LNP trying to invoke anti semitism lasted all of 5 minutes.

    Don’t take my word for it look at the political commentary. Not anywhere to be seen except from the GG.

    Those Labor people promoting and commenting on the LNP talking points are sounding very like a Liberal concern troll.

  14. ‘Patrick Bateman says:
    Thursday, March 7, 2019 at 2:00 pm

    “closing down the cotton industry”

    You really are keen to have plenty of cotton in our hellish, overheated, drought-ravaged future, aren’t you?’

    Classic Greens bullshit. My point has been clear from day one. If you get rid of GMOs you get rid of the cotton industry. Then what? Those 500,000 ha of cotton are going to be grown somewhere else because they clothe around half a billion people.
    Where?
    Clear more rainforests to grow it?
    Displace 500,000 ha of food to grow it?
    My point is NOT that we SHOULD grow 500,000 ha of irrigated GMO cotton in Australia.
    My point is that the Greens have all these policies for which they accept no accountability for the real world consequences whatsover.

  15. BW

    Burnside made a point that’s far more credible than your comments regarding Sanders and Venuezalea.

    It might help you see this reality by the very fact it’s only an LNP talking point and not one by Jewish groups spontaneously complaining in the media.

    Way to go promoting the Liberals campaign

  16. “Classic Greens bullshit. My point has been clear from day one. If you get rid of GMOs you get rid of the cotton industry. Then what? Those 500,000 ha of cotton are going to be grown somewhere else because they clothe around half a billion people.
    Where?
    Clear more rainforests to grow it?
    Displace 500,000 ha of food to grow it?
    My point is NOT that we SHOULD grow 500,000 ha of irrigated GMO cotton in Australia.
    My point is that the Greens have all these policies for which they accept no accountability for the real world consequences whatsover.”

    Yeah whatever…

    You have completely missed the point, that the cotton industry starves downstream of water which renders huge amounts of agriculture non-viable… So this fuming is all just dumb.
    Like most things to do with the Greens, you spend exactly the amount of time necessary to develop a ‘talking point’ and then go no further. You’re a lazy thinker.

  17. The injunction was reported to being limited to major wrecking works but presumably was more refined.

    Chances of Daley accurately stating details of injunction = fuck all

  18. Can’t believe the otherwise well-informed members of this website didn’t get Darc’s Blues Borthers Illinois Nazi reference at 2.34pm.

    Fer shame.

  19. ‘guytaur says:
    Thursday, March 7, 2019 at 3:07 pm

    BW

    Burnside made a point that’s far more credible than your comments regarding Sanders and Venuezalea.

    It might help you see this reality by the very fact it’s only an LNP talking point and not one by Jewish groups spontaneously complaining in the media. ‘

    Who transformed Burnside into Sanders? Bizarre.

  20. EB,

    Please resist your natural urges to moderate the discussion. No one appointed you black board monitor. Black board Monitor types tend to sink without trace on PB. First they came for the Black Board Monitors and all that………..

    The Greens are so inept at campaigning, I have deliberately given them quality advice in this instance. Of course, they will ignore same. Which means my clever plan has succeeded again.

  21. Burgey says:

    Can’t believe the otherwise well-informed members of this website didn’t get Darc’s Blues Borthers Illinois Nazi reference at 2.34pm.

    Fer shame.

    Some people have even posted clips of the film here and we still did not get it. “Fer shame” 🙂

  22. Astrobleme @ #324 Thursday, March 7th, 2019 – 3:09 pm

    …the cotton industry starves downstream of water which renders huge amounts of agriculture non-viable… …

    Actually, you both seem to be missing the point. The cotton industry is completely unnecessary in the MDB – there are plenty of more suitable places in South East Asia to grow cotton. We export the cotton there and them re-import the clothes anyway. But in the MDB the cotton industry is using water that should have been reserved for environmental flows.

    We don’t need the cotton. We do need the environment 🙁

  23. ‘Astrobleme says:
    Thursday, March 7, 2019 at 3:09 pm

    “Classic Greens bullshit. My point has been clear from day one. If you get rid of GMOs you get rid of the cotton industry. Then what? Those 500,000 ha of cotton are going to be grown somewhere else because they clothe around half a billion people.
    Where?
    Clear more rainforests to grow it?
    Displace 500,000 ha of food to grow it?
    My point is NOT that we SHOULD grow 500,000 ha of irrigated GMO cotton in Australia.
    My point is that the Greens have all these policies for which they accept no accountability for the real world consequences whatsover.”

    Yeah whatever…

    You have completely missed the point, that the cotton industry starves downstream of water which renders huge amounts of agriculture non-viable… So this fuming is all just dumb.
    Like most things to do with the Greens, you spend exactly the amount of time necessary to develop a ‘talking point’ and then go no further. You’re a lazy thinker.’

    The relevant Greens policy is to remove ALL GMOs from the environment.

    This will destroy the cotton industry. But as soon as the destruction of the cotton industry IS mentioned the Greens ignore the GMO policy and start talking about water.

    In other words, the Greens policy to remove ALL GMOs from the environment is your classic Greens posturing. If the consequence is the total destruction of an industry, then cast around for another reason to justify the remove ALL GMOs policy.

    FWIW, not that the Greens listen to policy nuance, cotton GMO is less destructive to the environment than trad cotton varieties. AND there is too much water allocated to irrigation in the MDB. The appropriate policy lies not in the Greens absolutism but somewhere in between. The starting point for that somewhere in between I have outline on Bludger before: a reset of what constitutes total useable water by sub catchment in the MDB.

    I will now refrain from doing what you routinely resort to: telling you that you are ‘dumb’ and ‘lazy thinker’ on policy, because that would be against William’s guidelines.

  24. Vogon Poet
    says:
    Thursday, March 7, 2019 at 2:26 pm
    Are you claiming that no one can ever use the words of Goebbels to show that something is bad?
    A politician running in a largely Jewish electorate against a Jewish candidate if they were half smart wouldn’t.
    ____________________________________________
    This is what happens when people talk out of their backsides about electorates they know nothing about.

    There are no electorates in Victoria that are ‘largely Jewish’. The Jewish population of Kooyong is negligible.

    The two electorates with a sizable Jewish population are

    Melb Ports(Macnamarar) 16,000 people. 10% of the electorate

    Goldstein: 10,000 people, 7% of the electorate

  25. Boer, for the 8000th time I’m not “GREEN”.

    For your reference, I think GMOs should be explored if they replace excessive irrigation and pesticide use which is farking up the environment big time. But I oppose such extreme abuse of our river system that 100 year old fish are dying in droves and little to no water makes it to large sections of the system. And I don’t accept that Australia is the best place for any heavily irrigated crop.

    I maintain a very healthy skepticism about corporate agriculture in this country, which has a long and inglorious track record of anti-environmentalism and corrupt dealings with government.

    I also think nuclear is better than coal for power generation, for instance. I am not some dogmatic fool in an alpaca wool jumper.

    And as someone else has pointed out to you above, growing cotton for all those poor souls around the world to clothe their naked bodies is foolish if we’re destroying more productive agriculture downstream and annihilating irreplacable wilderness in the bargain. I’d rather we all go naked.

  26. You have completely missed the point, that the cotton industry starves downstream of water which renders huge amounts of agriculture non-viable… So this fuming is all just dumb.
    Like most things to do with the Greens, you spend exactly the amount of time necessary to develop a ‘talking point’ and then go no further. You’re a lazy thinker.

    You are not thinking. If there was a sensible level of environmental flows set, and a good trading and pricing mechanism for pricing the remaining water available for irrigated agriculture, and a solid system of auditing and monitoring water use and flows, then you would still find an awful lot of it used for cotton (and rice), because its the highest value use of the water.

    If you stop cotton from being grown but don’t fix the systemic problems, then some other theiving so-and-so will probably steal the water and there still won’t be enough for the river system.

  27. “In other words, the Greens policy to remove ALL GMOs from the environment is your classic Greens posturing. If the consequence is the total destruction of an industry, then cast around for another reason to justify the remove ALL GMOs policy.”

    Where in this thread has anyone advocated this position? You are ranting at a blank wall.

  28. “You are not thinking. If there was a sensible level of environmental flows set, and a good trading and pricing mechanism for pricing the remaining water available for irrigated agriculture, and a solid system of auditing and monitoring water use and flows, then you would still find an awful lot of it used for cotton (and rice), because its the highest value use of the water.”

    I think most engaged people would be fine with real, permanent environmental flows, a cap and trade for the rest, and a ruthless rooting out of corrupt and lazy bureaucrats and their farmer mates.

    Ditto for carbon. Just cap the bloody stuff properly, with no loopholes or kickbacks, and have at it. If people want to dig up and burn coal, let them pay billions for the privilege of using a big chunk of the cap.

  29. I can’t see the problem with Burnside’s quote.

    It could have been taken straight from a textbook explanation of how to control large groups and get them to accept something that they would otherwise be reluctant to.

    It’s a pretty vanilla generic quote about a control technique that could be applied anywhere as the quote says.

  30. Aficionadoes of Burnside might want to read the Mocker on Burnside.

    Now, before the Greens partisans start mocking the Mocker, I know, I know.

    So, I suggest they confine themselves to the direct quotes of what Burnside said himself. Just what Burnside said. And then place Burnside’s own words into any sort of historical context of which they themselves are aware.

    WARNING: the Mocker makes a direct reference to a previous use of the Nazi genre by Burnside.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/the-mocker/the-mocker-julian-burnside-has-tough-ask-to-win-over-greens-faithful/news-story/a42e2440a412a773279f4f77f01deb42

    When they done all that the Greens might just rethink why it is they chose a candidate whose only campaigning achievement thus far is to take everyone’s mind off the substantive issues and to make himself the issue.

  31. Boewar

    “This will destroy the cotton industry. But as soon as the destruction of the cotton industry IS mentioned the Greens ignore the GMO policy and start talking about water.”

    You keep jumping around on different topics. You’re the one who brought up cotton! And then argued how important it was to grow cotton. It’s just not.

    As to GMO’s here is the policy for anyone who is interested.

    https://greens.org.au/policies/genetically-modified-organisms

    Cue to Boerwar shouting like a crazy man…

  32. Probably the main problem with that quote Barney is that, however accurate it may or may not be, it was made by someone convicted of “crimes against humanity”.

    I would rather hear progressive politicians quoting more admirable sources.

  33. @shellbell

    “The injunction was reported to being limited to major wrecking works but presumably was more refined.

    Chances of Daley accurately stating details of injunction = fuck all”

    The chances of the minutiae of the detail of the injunction being at all relevant to the political mastergame that Daley is playing = fuck all. Just saying.

  34. ‘Patrick Bateman says:
    Thursday, March 7, 2019 at 3:28 pm

    “You are not thinking. If there was a sensible level of environmental flows set, and a good trading and pricing mechanism for pricing the remaining water available for irrigated agriculture, and a solid system of auditing and monitoring water use and flows, then you would still find an awful lot of it used for cotton (and rice), because its the highest value use of the water.”

    I think most engaged people would be fine with real, permanent environmental flows, a cap and trade for the rest, and a ruthless rooting out of corrupt and lazy bureaucrats and their farmer mates.’

    We are on the same page in general terms, bearing in mind that the Greens removal of all GMOs from the environment would ensure that, if any cotton at all is grown in Australia, it would pollute more and use more water than GMO cotton.

  35. I really do wonder if Josh Fraudenboy isn’t treasurer simply as a favour to Joe Hockey in order to make his stint look good.

    There really isn’t any other logical explanation.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *