The addition of this week’s Newspoll and Essential Research polls have ended a period of improvement for the Coalition in BludgerTrack, which records a solid shift to Labor this week. Labor’s two-party lead is now 53.8-46.2, out from 53.1-46.9 last week, and they have made two gains on the seat projection, one in New South Wales and one in Queensland. Despite that, the Newspoll leadership numbers have resulted in an improvement in Scott Morrison’s reading on the net approval trend. Full results are available through the link below – if you can’t get the state breakdown tabs to work, try doing a hard refresh.
National polling news:
• A poll result from Roy Morgan circulated earlier this week, although there’s no mention of it on the company’s website. The primary votes are Labor 36%, Coalition 34.5% and Greens 12.5%, which pans out to a Labor lead of 54-46 using past preference flows (thanks Steve777). Morgan continues to conduct weekly face-to-face polling, but the results are only made public when Gary Morgan has a point to make – which on this occasion is that Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party is on all of 1%. One Nation doesn’t do great in the poll either, recording 3%. The poll was conducted over two weekends from a sample of 1673.
• The Australian had supplementary questions from this week’s Newspoll on Tuesday, which had Scott Morrison favoured over Bill Shorten by 48-33 on the question of best leader handle the economy – little different from his 50-32 lead in October, or the size of the lead consistently held by Malcolm Turnbull. It also found 33% saying the government should prioritise funding of services, compared with 27% for cutting personal income tax and 30% for paying down debt.
• The Australian also confused me by publishing, together with the Newspoll voting intention numbers on Monday, results on franking credits and “reducing tax breaks for investors” – derived not from last weekend’s poll, but earlier surveys in December and November (UPDATE: Silly me – the next column along is the total from the latest poll). The former found 48% opposed to Labor’s franking credits policy and 30% in support, compared with 50% and 33% when it was first floated in March (UPDATE: So the latest poll actually has support back up five to 35% and opposition down two to 38%). Respondents were instructed that the policy was “expected to raise $5.5 billion a year from around 900,000 Australians that receive income from investments in shares”, which I tend to think is friendlier to Labor than a question that made no effort to explain the policy would have been. The tax breaks produced a stronger result for Labor, with 47% in favour and 33% opposed, although this was down on 54% and 28% in April (UPDATE: Make that even better results for Labor – support up four to 51%, opposition down one to 32%).
With due recognition of Kevin Bonham’s campaign against sketchy reports of seat polling, let the record note the following:
• Ben Packham of The Australian reports Nationals polling shows them in danger of losing Page to Labor and Cowper to Rob Oakeshott. Part of the problem, it seems, is a minuscule recognition rating for the party’s leader, one Michael McCormack.
• There’s a uComms/ReachTEL poll of Flinders for GetUp! doing the rounds, conducted on Wednesday from a sample of 634, which has Liberal member Greg Hunt on 40.7%, an unspecified Labor candidate on 29.4% and ex-Liberal independent Julia Banks on 16.1%. That would seem to put the result down to the wild card of Banks’ preference flows. There was apparently a respondent-allocated two-party figure with the result, but I haven’t seen it. UPDATE: Turns out it was 54-46 in favour of Greg Hunt, which seems a bit much.
• The West Australian reported last weekend that a uComms/ReachTel poll for GetUp! had Christian Porter leading 52-48 in Pearce, which is above market expectations for him.
• Another week before, The West Australian reported Labor internal polling had it with a 51.5-48.5 lead in Stirling.
Preselection news:
• Following Nigel Scullion’s retirement announcement last month, the Northern Territory News reports a field of eight nominees for his Country Liberal Party Senate seat: Joshua Burgoyne, an Alice Springs electrician, who was earlier preselected for the second position on the ticket behind Scullion; Bess Price, who held the remote seat of Stuart in the territory parliament from 2012 to 2016, and whose high-profile daughter Jacinta Price is the party’s candidate for Lingiari; Tony Schelling, a financial adviser; Tim Cross, former general manager of NT Correctional Industries; Gary Haslett, a Darwin councillor; Kris Civitarese, deputy mayor of Tennant Creek; Linda Fazldeen, from the Northern Territory’s Department of Trade, Business and Innovation; and Bill Yan, general manager at the Alice Springs Correctional Centre.
• Andrew Burrell of The Australian reports Liberal nominees to succeed Michael Keenan in Stirling include Vince Connelly, Woodside Petroleum risk management adviser and former army officer; Joanne Quinn, a lawyer for Edith Cowan University; Michelle Sutherland, a teacher and the wife of Michael Sutherland, former state member for Mount Lawley; Georgina Fraser, a 28-year-old “oil and gas executive”; and Taryn Houghton, “head of community engagement at a mental health service, HelpingMinds”. No further mention of Tom White, general manager of Uber in Japan and a former adviser to state MP and local factional powerbroker Peter Collier, who was spruiked earlier. The paper earlier reported that Karen Caddy, a former Rio Tinto engineer, had her application rejected after state council refused to give her the waiver required for those who were not party members of one year’s standing.
• The Nationals candidate for Indi is Mark Byatt, a Wodonga-based manager for Regional Development Victoria.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-real-question-raised-by-the-savehakeem-campaign-20190215-p50y2e.html
https://outline.com/RwqJ3P
I always look for Peter FitzSimons on Sunday – he suits me.
They said —
Au revoir. ☮☕
doyley @ #645 Sunday, February 17th, 2019 – 7:51 am
The success is overstated. It’s not that there are really “no boats”, it’s than any information about boats is suppressed by secrecy and legal threats (“on water matters”, etc.). Kind of exactly like what they try to do with information about what actually happens on Manus and Nauru.
Julia Baird is on Manly beach this morning, counting the pitchforks….
“Anti Abbott campaigners are swarming Manly Beach this morning. Dozens and dozens of them in various guises.”
C@tmomma @ #699 Sunday, February 17th, 2019 – 7:03 am
And it was good for Cassidy to push back against Dutton’s hysteria through the week.
Feedback from the field campaign yesterday was that AS didn’t come up. We had a lot of people out door knocking.
Yes ar but does that matter to people who do not even know who our pm is such as those interviewed at Bondi on insiders?
Is Angela Merkel the only leader worth her salt at present? Everywhere else you look it is a clusterf@@k
The New York Times
The New York Times
@nytimes
·
6h
German Chancellor Merkel received a standing ovation after a speech rejecting U.S. demands that European allies pull out of the Iran nuclear deal. Russia’s foreign minister, a high-ranking Chinese official and Ivanka Trump pointedly stayed in their seats.
At the Munich Security Conference on Saturday, Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany delivered a spirited defense of multilateral institutions in a world increasingly marked by great power rivalry.
Merkel Rejects U.S. Demands That Europe Pull Out of Iran Nuclear Deal
nytimes.com
C@t @ 9:48
“Darn,
I see where you are coming from but the point I was trying to make was not that I am not seeing all Australians as equal but that there are those in the government that appear to be saying it.”
I was about to leap to C@t’s defence, but she has done it herself . (I hope she hasn’t offended the powers that be on this blog!!!)
I would extend her Disquiet, by saying that the Govt might extend this ‘power’ of deportation to anybody they disapprove of. For example, the last of my forebears came to Australia in the 1880’s, so I’d better not say that I don’t like Potato-heads, in case they deported me to Ireland, where I’d be force-fed ‘Tatty’s until I was fit to be medivaced back to God’s own country
Kayjay
Yes, thanks for posting that photo of Shorten and Morrison. I thought it so telling that Shorten is trying to look Morrison in the eye, but Morrison can’t do it and just looks down. I am not sure if it was arrogance or resignation by ScumMo, but either way it was not a good look.
Love the comments 😆
https://www.instagram.com/p/Bt1rA1MHLdZ/
Why is Ivanka Trump at these sorts of meetings?
Confessions @ #711 Sunday, February 17th, 2019 – 10:17 am
It’s a money saving thing – she can represent both the USA and Russia.
P1
Clevah!!
Prominent NRL figures have been talking about a new National Anthem. https://thenewdaily.com.au/sport/rugby-league/2019/02/16/all-stars-change-anthem/
Here are the original words of Advance Australia Fair from 1879. Wonder who that would appeal to. A slightly varies version was used at early Commonwealth events. Verses 2-4 have been completely ditched in the current version adopted under Whitlam government plus “sons” got chopped (official verse 2 is not much chop either).
Australian sons, let us rejoice.
For we are young and free.
We’ve golden soil and wealth for toil,
Our home is girt by sea.
Our land abounds in nature’s gifts
Of beauty rich and rare,
In history’s page let every stage
Advance Australia Fair
In joyful strains then let us sing
Advance Australia Fair.
When gallant Cook from Albion sailed.
To trace wide oceans o’er.
True British courage bore him on.
Til he landed on our shore
Then here he raised Old England’s flag.
The standard of the brave.
With all her faults we love her still.
Britannia rules the wave
In joyful strains then let us sing
Advance Australia Fair.
When other nations of the globe.
Behold us from afar,
We’ll rise to high renown
And shine like our glorious southern star
From English soil and Fatherland
Scotia and Erin fair
Let all combine with heart and hand
To Advance Australia fair.
In joyful strains then let us sing
Advance Australia Fair.
Should foreign foe e’er sight our coast.
Or dare a foot to land.
We’ll rouse to arms like sires of yore
To guard our native strand.
Britannia then shall surely know,
Though oceans roll between
Her sons in fair Australia’s land
Still keep their courage green.
In joyful strains then let us sing
Advance Australia Fair.
ar,
I understand that the “ success “ re boats is overstated. But that is the narrative put forward by the government and that is the narrative that is accepted rightly or not. It is of the governments own doing.
As a result, a vacuum has emerged and thoughts have turned to the human angle. Something I would think was not part of the long term government plan and something that has bitten them on the bum.
In the absence of any boats between now and the election and once the first AS are transferred to Australia and the reality as to how sick they are emerges the issue of border security may not be as huge a winner for Morrison as the MSM and government believe.
Even if one or two boats do sneak through, by his latest macho outburst “ ring of steel “ Morrison has now put the responsibility fully on his shoulders and that of Dutton.
As I posted earlier I do not know how the issue will play out but it does feel like 2007 again to me.
Anyway, time will tell.
Cheers and a great day to you.
You can’t artifically create a Tampa situation. You just end up looking like fools. Only three more months, sigh.
Curious as to the destination of AS who arrive here by plane. They’re obviously not shipped off to manus or Nauru so what becomes of them?
Davidwh Tampa was an artificially created situation
Henry @ #681 Sunday, February 17th, 2019 – 10:26 am
Exactly what I’ve been thinking. And they aren’t being re-located to the Onshore Detention Centres either because the Coalition have been trumpeting how they have been closing them down and saving money.
So, that only leaves…
Porter is that ‘typical politician’ who never answers the question, but deflects it to what he wants to say. Except that it doesn’t always work in direct i.v., even though it might sound good in QT.
My assessment: Not a pleasant personality, and had to check his notes for the correct LNP answer.
Confessions @ #662 Sunday, February 17th, 2019 – 9:25 am
The Royal Australasian College of Physicians has just put out an urgent EOI request for Members to apply for the Independent Health Advisory Panel:
Current Australian immigration policies mandate the diversion of refugees and asylum seekers who arrive by boat in Australian territorial waters without a visa to offshore processing facilities. Access to appropriate medical care and facilities for people in regional processing countries has been a major concern for the College.
The College’s Refugee and Asylum Seeker Health Position Statement sets out our strong evidence-based opposition to immigration detention.
In 2018, the RACP signed onto the Kids Off Nauru campaign, urging the Australian Parliament to support the immediate transfer of all refugee and asylum seeker children and their families from Nauru to Australia for health reasons. The Kids Off Nauru campaign, including the very strong advocacy from Fellows of the College, has been instrumental in raising awareness of the severe and detrimental impact that living in indefinite offshore detention has on the health and wellbeing of these children.
As you may be aware recent news coverage of this matter, a Bill (widely known as the Medivac Bill) has been passed this week in Parliament. It provides for the establishment of an Independent Health Advice Panel (IHAP) whose members will be tasked with “to monitor, assess and report on the physical and mental health of transitory persons who are in regional processing countries and the standard of health services provided to them.” (Home Affairs Legislation Amendment [Miscellaneous Measures] Bill 2019). Further details of the role of the IHAP set out in the legislation are provided below.
Urgent EOI
The RACP has been asked by the Minister for Immigration, Citizenship and Multicultural Affairs to provide at least ten (10) nominees for consideration for appointment to the IHAP by Wednesday, 20 February. The Minister will determine the actual appointments to the panel based on the nominees from each of the organisations. The AMA and the RANZCP have been similarly approached. At least one nominee from the RACP will need to be appointed. Additionally another person with expertise in paediatric health will also need to be appointed.
Please note that the College has a number of concerns with the process, which may ultimately mean that we are not able to comply with some or all aspects of the Minister’s request. These concerns include the extremely short time frame for response and lack of funding and other support for members who are appointed to the IHAP. These concerns have been raised by the College with the Minister.
Nevertheless we are issuing this EOI request to ensure we are ready to meet the Minister’s request in the event our concerns are addressed.
If you are interested in applying, you will need to meet requisite requirements, including being available to meet (in person or virtually with other panel members) for travel and to review cases referred to the IHAP within a very tight timeframe.
To apply
Please complete the selection criteria below and provide your CV by COB Monday, 18 February to policy@racp.edu.au.
Selection criteria
Briefly state how your knowledge, qualifications, experience and personal attributes apply to each criterion below:
Reason for interest in representing the College on the Independent Health Advice Panel.
Please briefly detail your expertise and current work relevant to assessing refugee and asylum seeker health in regional processing countries and assessing the adequacy of relevant health services in regional processing countries.
Do you have any previous or current professional or personal connections that may give cause for perceived conflict of interest in relation to participating in the Independent Health Advice Panel?
Please note any appointed member will have their contact details shared with the Department.
Background:
The Home Affairs Legislation Amendment (Miscellaneous Measures) Bill 2019 (the Bill) was passed by Parliament on Wednesday, 13 February. The amendment includes the creation of an Independent Health Advice Panel (IHAP).
The objective of the panel is to monitor, assess and report on the physical and mental health of transitory persons who are in regional processing countries and the standard of health services provided to them.
The panel will consist of:
the person occupying the positions of Chief Medical Officer of the Department and the Surgeon-General of the Australian Border Force;
the person occupying the position of Commonwealth Chief Medical Officer; and
not less than 6 other members, including:
at least one person nominated by the President of the Australian Medical Association;
at least one person nominated by the Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Psychiatrists;
at least one person nominated by the Royal Australasian College of Physicians; and
at least one person who has expertise in paediatric health.
The Bill provides provisions for two or more treating doctors of a transitory person to recommend that a transitory person requires transfer to Australia for appropriate medical or psychiatric assessment or treatment.
The Minister will determine approval of the transfer. If the Minister refuses to approve a relevant transitory person’s transfer to Australia on the grounds of 198E(4)(a), “the Minister reasonably believes that it is not necessary to transfer the person to Australia for appropriate medical or psychiatric assessment or treatment; the IHAP will be notified and must within 72 hours conduct a clinical assessment in person or remotely and inform the Minister of their findings and recommendations. If IHAP recommends a transfer this can only be refused by the Minister on the grounds of the person being prejudicial to security under the Australian Security Intelligence 21 Organisation Act 1979 and if the person has a substantial criminal record.
*Please note a relevant transitory person refers to a person who is in a regional processing country on the day the Bill commences or is born in a regional processing country and requires removal from the regional processing country to seek appropriate medical or psychiatric assessment or treatment because they are not receiving assessment and treatment in the regional processing countries. Additionally ‘legacy minors’ refers to the definition of ‘relevant transitory people’ with the additional criteria that they are under 18 years of age.
Responsibilities:
As part of the monitoring and assessment responsibilities of the IHAP, members may:
199C(2)
assign different members of the panel to monitor and assess the health of transitory persons in different regional processing countries; and
travel to regional processing countries to conduct monitoring and assessment activities; and
assess whether initial assessments of transitory persons on arrival in a regional processing country are adequate; and
assess the adequacy of health services and support provided to transitory persons in regional processing countries; and
monitor a transitory person’s health on an ongoing basis for as long as the transitory person remains in a regional processing country; and
adjudicate between treating doctors if there are differing five clinical assessments and recommended treatment options.
199C(3)
The panel may, at any time it considers appropriate, make recommendations to the Minister in respect of the health of transitory persons who have been taken to regional processing countries, including recommendations relating to:
the treatment of individual transitory persons; and
the treatment of a cohort of transitory persons in regional 12 processing countries; and
medical processes and procedures for managing the treatment of a cohort of transitory persons in regional processing countries.
Availability, frequency of meetings and reporting:
The Department of Home Affairs expects that the panel will be established and operational within the coming weeks. The panel must, as soon as practicable after 31 March, 30 June, 30 September and 31 December in each year, prepare and give to the Minister a report on its operations during the three month period that ended on that day.
IHAP must produce its first report as soon as practicable after the commencement of this subdivision. The first report of the panel is to consist of an assessment of:
the physical and mental health conditions of transitory persons in regional processing countries; and
the standards of health services provided to transitory persons in regional processing countries.
Commitment:
Nominees must be able to participate in the IHAP meetings, engagements and associated travel to regional processing countries.
Selected nominees must adhere to the College’s Code of Conduct and provide the RACP with a report or summary of outcomes as agreed with the Policy and Advocacy unit.
Term:
Appointment to the panel is for a minimum term of three years.
Funding:
A person is not entitled to remuneration in respect of their position as a member of the panel. No reimbursement for any associated activities will be provided. The College is seeking clarification from the Minister on this point.
Despite the tight closing date (COB tomorrow), I understand that my application will be one of hundreds.
Henry you can’t send people who arrived here authorized to Naru. Once here you have to deal with the in accordance with international law.
Davidwh @ #722 Sunday, February 17th, 2019 – 10:29 am
Which I guess is why we never hear about them 🙁
SCOUT @ #718 Sunday, February 17th, 2019 – 10:27 am
With a different pre-history. The SIEVs were coming before Tampa, so Howard’s actions turned the tide, and again the people were appreciative. This time, not so much.
Good read from Grog
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/17/the-moderate-liberal-mp-is-extinct-howard-subjugated-them-years-ago
Partisan politics really does corrupt the individual parliamentarian.
How often are they voting against their values and principles… ?
Just thinking a bit more, and IF a boat does get through, doesn’t that make a mockery of the Coalition’s policy of Turnbacks? Obviously it wouldn’t have worked any more.
rhwombat:
Well this flies in the face of Porter’s carry on this morning. ‘A bunch of volunteers’ or wtte of he said, as if the panel was in no way approved by the govt.
Good luck! I hope you get nominated.
Eric Tymoigne provides an excellent analysis of the US Government’s public debt – how the debt has changed over time, what functions the public debt serves in the US economy, how the debt is repaid, and so on.
http://neweconomicperspectives.org/2019/02/what-you-need-to-know-about-the-22-trillion-national-debt-the-alternative-interview.html?fbclid=IwAR3kcpX-0aCimt7yvMvBh6nMI05QglH6jMvFzKpaTo9pEJq9-JJhz8tsTLo
Henry,
They mainly stay in the community and continue working.
There is a lot of evidence that many of them are part of visa/work scams and use an asylum claim to extend their stays.
This is highlighted by the number of people from Countries like China and India claiming asylum. These groups have a very low rate of successful asylum claims.
Good luck with the application rhwomabat!
Could you clarify this point for me please?
Does this mean that there are 12 countries in the region in total where people are assessed medically by Australia?
C@tmomma @ #726 Sunday, February 17th, 2019 – 10:32 am
Yup. Morrison has put himself in a bind. If a boat gets turned back, then it’s a “so, nothing’s really changed then?”. But if one does get through, it’s clearly Morrison’s & Dutton’s fault.
I think they realized this pretty quickly – hence why Morrison has now re-opened Christmas Island and instructed AirBnBorder Force to tow boats there instead of turning them back.
I reckon they will end up towing any boat they can find with a brown person on board – fishing boats, pleasure boats, Indonesian naval boats …
Asylum seekers who arrive by air have been lawfully given visas to come to Australia, though the visa grant was based on an application with lies in it. Therefore, their legal status is different. There is a question, though, given the massive increase in onshore asylum applications since boats stopped arriving, as to the quality of screening prior to the grant of a visa.
These people are typically granted bridging visas if they apply for asylum onshore after arriving lawfully with a visa while their asylum applications are being assessed. I think it’s pretty obvious from the sheer number of applications that, unlike boat arrivals, most of these people are patently not refugees and are using the delays to scam the system. This has always been a problem but clearly has grown to plague proportions and reflects terrible administration by Home Affairs.
Seeing the Kouks listed post above it has the LNP betting odds blowing out to $5.22.
I’ve only seen the LNP at $4 something.
Is the $5.22 confirmed as correct and when did they hit the $5 mark?
Thanks in advance.
Seems to me that ScoMo’s attitude towards AS is not that they are trying to steal a march on other refugees, but that they are all criminals.
lizzie
I’m especially pleased to see it is a Danish firm.At the time I wrote of how the Danes do it ( Industry closing down) and cited a city/town where the main industry (ship building) was closed down and the people were retrained at government expense in wind technologies. The place became a hub for R&D and manufacture of wind turbines rather than a depressed ghost town ‘Hockey Style’ would cause. I wonder if it is the same company ?
I was out doorknocking in Mosman yesterday. 75% of the people that talked to use hated Abbott’s guts.
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, February 17, 2019 at 10:31 am
SCOUT @ #718 Sunday, February 17th, 2019 – 10:27 am
Davidwh Tampa was an artificially created situation
With a different pre-history. The SIEVs were coming before Tampa, so Howard’s actions turned the tide, and again the people were appreciative. This time, not so much.
______________________________________
Three big differences from 2001:
First, then there was an apparently uncontrollable flood of boats that was undermining public confidence in the Government’s border management. Now, there are no boats.
Secondly, Tampa was followed shortly after by the 11 September attacks. Something like that could happen again before the election but it is extremely unlikely.
Finally, and most importantly, Morrison is no Howard. By the 2001 election Howard has a reputation of some courageous and tough decision making, whether you agreed with it (guns) or disagreed (waterfront and GST). Scomo has nothing other than ‘stopping the boats’ and his obsession with on-water matters has largely obscured public awareness of that.
If this nation faced a real crisis between now and the election this current mob of headless crooks, spies, liars and clowns are the least likely to inspire public confidence.
Go wombat.
The Coalition is at $3.80 with Sportsbet. Not that it matters whether as they are big odds in a 2 horse race.
Fair enough David. I guess the fisi AS (fly in, stay in) arrive here legally (tourist visas), then request asylum when they arrive here.
Still doesn’t really answer my question as to where do they go when they arrive and are waiting for their status to be determined.
Roman whatsisname has some good insights on this on twitter.
jeffemu
I’ve asked The Kouk to confirm source but he’s under no obligation to respond to an unknown Tweep.
Wooops. So much for nuance.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/17/refugees-in-indonesia-say-few-would-risk-a-boat-ride-to-australia
One other thing has changed dramatically. Apart from Murdoch outlets press gallery journalists for the first time in as long as I can remember are actually calling out Coalition lies, instead of just reporting them without comment because they see themselves as political race callers.
This may reflect that they see this government as no longer fit to govern, that the lies are becoming so egregious and patently dishonest that they can be ignored no longer or that the groupthink fever that was launched in 2007 and reached its height during the Gillard government has finally abated.
IoM @ #737 Sunday, February 17th, 2019 – 7:46 am
Seriously?!
Just saw your post Barney. Thanks for clarifying.
On another note signed up for Netflix the other day after our discussion on it the other day. Got some good stuff on it, particularly love Jerry Seinfeld and his comedians in cars getting coffee. The one with Zach Galafanakis was superb, I like that guy.
Keeping the missus well and truly occupied too with all the chick flicks and tv dramas, which is a nice bonus.
Here be the $5
Australian Federal Politics
Next Federal Election
1 Market
Next Aust Fed Election WnrSat 18 May 16:00Party that provides PM at swearing in
Labor
1.14
Coalition
5.00
https://www.tab.com.au/sports/betting/Politics
4.75 here
https://tab.ubet.com/sports/elections/australian-federal-election/australian-federal-election
TPOF @ #739 Sunday, February 17th, 2019 – 10:46 am
I would suggest … ‘there are no boats that we hear about
(smiley face, I’m not being picky)
Henry
If you are now on Netflix watch Russian Doll. It’s brilliant.