Essential Research: 55-45 to Labor

Shortly after Newspoll found the Coalition’s tentative momentum grinding to a halt, Essential gives them their worst result since August.

Essential Research has come out with a second poll in consecutive weeks, the previous one having departed from its normal practice in having a longer field work period and a later release, tailored to work around the interruption of the long weekend. Coming after a period in which a media narrative of Labor taking on water over franking credits has taken hold, the results of the latest poll are striking: the Coalition has sunk four points on the primary vote to 34%, Labor is up two to 38%, the Greens and One Nation are steady on 10% and 7% respectively, and Labor’s two-party lead has blown out from 52-48 to 55-45. Other questions relate to the banking royal commission: you can read more about them from The Guardian, or await for Essential’s full report, which I assume will be with us later today.

UPDATE: Full report here. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1067.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,398 comments on “Essential Research: 55-45 to Labor”

Comments Page 43 of 48
1 … 42 43 44 … 48

  1. Greens voting women supporting Banks less so.

    That makes sense. Banks plus Greens gives you
    20.5% Female
    21.8% Male

    And that raises another question regarding why Greens voters might switch to supporting a right wing independent. And another. Is Banks vulnerable to her voting record on past Greens issues?

    sprocket_, Do you know what the questions asked were?

  2. Why would he have [revised his opinion on private damming of the MD rivers]? Another thing we’re doing here any more is reactivating tired old arguments.

    A few things have changed since then. Don’t take my word for it. Ask a million fish.

  4. Barney in Ben Tre
    says:
    Friday, February 15, 2019 at 3:18 pm
    nath says:
    Friday, February 15, 2019 at 3:11 pm
    From that Flinders poll it seems to me that Banks is getting 10 points off Hunt and half the Green vote. Hunt is looking vulnerable but should win based on that. IMO.
    That seems to support zoomster’s theory that about half the Green vote is a soft protest vote.
    ___________________________________________________
    Maybe Baby.
    Late Riser
    says:
    Friday, February 15, 2019 at 3:25 pm
    And that raises another question regarding why Greens voters might switch to supporting a right wing independent. And another. Is Banks vulnerable to her voting record on past Greens issues?
    ________________________
    I’d hazard a guess that female Greens voters in Flinders support her for the bullying claims and also the strategic aspect of getting rid of Hunt by using Banks rather than the Greens.

  5. William Bowe @ #2096 Friday, February 15th, 2019 – 3:21 pm

    In your PB hiatus, did you revise your opinion on the desirability of the continued unfettered behaviour of the SW Queensland/Northern NSW cotton industry, and their practice of placing levees around their properties to stop runoff into rivers, and of damming rivers that happen to pass through their properties, to prevent any flow at all downstream?

    Why would he have? Another thing we’re doing here any more is reactivating tired old arguments.

    Why would he have? Because of the fish kills, and the demonstrated errors in his arguments.

    BW’s disappearance was very timely. I presume you are providing him with a reason not to answer. In my view this is not reactivating a tired old argument, but bringing up a serious, current, ongoing, political situation. You, of course, are the boss. I do find it interesting to observe whom you choose to support, and whom you choose to threaten.

  6. Sorry, clarification regarding my question to sprocket_. The question on the image may be a summary. To ask a question over a phone you have to ask a bunch of related things, such as “Liberal Greg Hunt”, “Labor XYZ”, but only publish what is in the table.

  9. Late Riser
    says:
    Friday, February 15, 2019 at 3:29 pm
    Sorry, clarification regarding my question to sprocket_. The question on the image may be a summary. To ask a question over a phone you have to ask a bunch of related things, such as “Liberal Greg Hunt”, “Labor XYZ”, but only publish what is in the table.
    _________________________________________
    I participated in this poll.
    They asked primary vote. certainty of primary vote. Banks vs Hunt. Hunt vs ALP. Opinion on medevac bill and opinion on newstart increase.

  10. In my view this is not reactivating a tired old argument, but bringing up a serious, current, ongoing, political situation. You, of course, are the boss. I do find it interesting to observe whom you choose to support, and whom you choose to threaten.

    No, it’s about you getting BW to admit that he was wrong and you were right. Even if it’s true, who cares? And the thing you find interesting is not so. I carry no brief for BW or against you, and couldn’t tell you a single thing about this or any other argument you were having with him.

  12. William Bowe
    says:
    Friday, February 15, 2019 at 3:31 pm
    I don’t know who Ucomm is, but 52.8 for Hunt among 18-34s is weird.
    Happily, no one in that age cohort lives in Flinders anyway.
    ___________________________
    Yes it’s Melbourne’s retiree lifestyle electorate. Wineries, beaches and organic farms. It’s the most beautiful part of the state.

  13. Ben – I didn’t say no to subs – I just said we need to focus on cyber warfare as well. I do think the subs, for their cost, are poor value for money though. Cyber, early warning technologies (along with the traditional forms of defence) would, to my mind, value add.

  14. I don’t know who Ucomm is, but 52.8 for Hunt among 18-34s is weird.

    Not necessarily. Around here I sense (yes yes) that the more traditional older blue ribbon Liberal voters are swinging (in small numbers, but enough) and younger elite private school educated man-childs are strongly in favour of the conservatives.

  15. I participated in this poll.
    They asked primary vote. certainty of primary vote. Banks vs Hunt. Hunt vs ALP. Opinion on medevac bill and opinion on newstart increase.

    OK. Thanks. It seems the poll then was to focus on Hunt, then to compare Hunt and Banks. The rest were just forest to the Hunt and Banks trees. I’ll interpret in that light.

  18. Chris Bowen
    @Bowenchris
    Following Following @Bowenchris

    First the National Energy Guarantee was scrapped, now the Abbott/Turnbull/Morrison Government is so chaotic and dysfunctional they don’t even know if their disastrous ‘big stick’ energy policy will be voted on in April or taken to the election. @JoshFrydenberg, care to weigh in?

    https://twitter.com/Bowenchris/status/1096258744038506496

    The FIBS/NATS have made such a mess of their energy policy one saying one thing and one another is not surprising, but within 20 minutes… that’s not a good look.

  20. A recurring theme of my most recent injunctions is this: don’t demand that specific posters discuss what you want them to discuss. If you’ve got something to say about a subject, your comment should be about the subject itself, and not some individual you feel like arguing about it with.

  21. yabba

    I will try to be brief. 99% of what I am writing here is a repeat of what I have written previously.

    1. The MDB Plan is based on calculations about the total amount of useable water in the system. This useable amount was then allocated to irrigation, town, and environmental uses.

    2. It was assumed at the time that the MDB would drought proof neither the irrigation industry nor the environment. Drought involving dry river beds in the Darling where steam boats simply sat on the river bed for months at a time has long been normal. Of this, more later…

    3. The core issue is whether there was sufficient environmental allocation to ensure that NORMAL drought conditions pertained. IMO, this has not been delivered for ALL sections of the MDB. This goes to which sections of which rivers are allowed to run dry and for what reasons. In other words, water flow management or mismanagement, matters.

    4. The MDB Plan is based on a progressive whittling down of the main scientific recommendations in relation to environmental flows. IMO, some of this whittling down made sense. An example would be environmental releases on top of existing high water levels to create flood conditions.

    5. The MDB Plan is based on investments to increase the total useable water. Many of these infrastructure improvements have been made. The reductions in losses to evaporation and seepage have been significant.

    6. IMO, the assumptions about total MDB useable water have been falsified by Global Warming in three particular respects: (a) falling trend in rainfall (b) increasing trend in evaporation and (c) significant falls in runoff consequent to (a) and (b). The assumptions about useable water were also falsified by water theft and by floodplain harvesting.

    7. The result, IMO, is that there is too little water in the system to meet either the original irrigation or the original evaporation objectives.

    8. The falsity of the assumptions underpinning the MDB allocations were, IMO, always going to be evident in the event of a crisis involving high temperatures and low rainfall.

    9. You will note that I have not mentioned potatoes, cotton, almonds, grapes, dairy, cherries or any other specific crop. The reason I have not done so is that the above set of considerations apply regardless of the crop type. There is only so much useable water allocated to irrigation. How that proportion is allocated between crops is neither here nor there.

    10. With specific reference to cotton, I make the following observations:
    (a) we grow GMO cotton which uses around 10% of the chemicals formerly used.
    (b) we grow GMO cotton that uses considerably less water per tonne than traditional cotton
    (c) in an average year we grow around 500,000 hectares of cotton. The export income is in the order of $2-$3 billion. We grow enough cotton to clothe around half a billion people. Cotton is the mainstay of quite a few inland towns. In a drought year we grow far less.

    The broad policy options in relation to cotton are:

    1. To close it down completely. Unless half a billion people are to run around naked, a direct policy consequence is that the 500,000 hectares would necessarily be displaced to some set of unknown circumstances overseas. This means that they would displace 500,000 ha of food production overseas and/or some combination of clearing and food displacement. Several regional towns in Australia would immediately become totally mendicant.

    2. To force some of the irrigation water allocation into environmental allocation. Cotton growers would compete with all other growers for the remaining irrigation allocation.

    3. A further consequence of closing down the cotton industry would, quite possibly, be a compensating increase in other crops. Having had very close opportunities to observe other irrigation uses such as cherry, potato, orange, almond and rice cropping I see no particular reason to make cotton an exceptional case. Agricultural technologies are advancing with blinding speed. Who would have thought that GMO cotton would vastly reduce chemical use, for example?

    IMO the following reforms are needed:

    1. Flood plain harvesting to be integrated in the Plan, and not be outside the Plan’s consideration of total useable water.
    2. A reset of the calculations for useable water involving an acknowledgement that the assumptions need to presage Global Warming. In particular this should acknowledge that the relationship between higher temperatures and run off is NOT linear.
    3. The Commonwealth assuming total control of the MDB water management.
    4. Enforcement to be separated totally from water management agencies.
    5. Fiddling with meters and the like and water theft to be treated as major crimes.
    6. The proportion of the newly calculated useable water total to be allocated to the environment to be increased to offset the devastation of Global Warming.
    7. Changes to tax law to ensure that foreign owners of irrigation farms do not repatriate profits while socializing costs.
    8. Close down most of South Australia’s irrigation because it is the most costly in terms of contribution to irrigation and seepage. Ideally the MDB Plan would have the impact of irrigation being as close to run off and storage as possible.

    Do we need a Royal Commission into the MDB? Not really. We know the stocks and flows of water. They are well measured. We know that the new useable amounts are going to trend down. We know what water is needed to sustain the environment.

    I note in this context that the Greens have a policy of removing ALL GMOs from the environment which brings me to yet another formulation of yet another useful rule of thumb Bludger Political Law: The Greens ideological noise about GMOs is in inverse proportion to practical common sense as demonstrated by the GMO-based cotton industry.

  23. I think the problem is that the Coalition has a number of energy policies depending on which faction is speaking. Also it’s probably a mistake to think of the Libs as a single party at present let alone as a cohesive coalition with the Nationals.

    Basically they are a loose rabble with little direction, scant forward planning and more concerned with scoring at least one minor win against Labor than with governing the country.

    The sooner they are voted into opposition the better. Gawd it galls me to be that blunt about them but they deserve it. 🙁

  27. William Bowe @ #3905 Friday, February 15th, 2019 – 3:31 pm

    I don’t know who Ucomm is, but 52.8 for Hunt among 18-34s is weird.

    Happily, no one in that age cohort lives in Flinders anyway.

    “>

    According to that graph, about a dozen so – but I suspect they’re all Young Libs, Pentecostals &/or Mormons…how do these percentage thingies work anyway?

  29. Someone earlier suggested we might have to spend more on defence because of the risk of nuclear missiles coming our way from China. Given that more people live in the Shanghai metropolitan area than the whole of Australia it is a delusion that China gives a stuff about we 25 million or so down here. If it gets to the point that missiles do come our way, but that time, one could expect some 10 or a dozen of cities in China would already be rubble. The movie “On the Beach” had it about right……….Melbourne will be the last city in the End Times…………..

  32. According to that graph, about a dozen so – but I suspect they’re all Young Libs, Pentecostals &/or Mormons…how do these percentage thingies work anyway?

    The y-axis is the percentage of the electorate’s total population. So a bit less than 10% of the population of Flinders is aged 20-40, where around 14% is more normal.

  33. davidwh says: Friday, February 15, 2019 at 4:01 pm

    Christchurch will probably outlast Melbourne by a couple of hours.

    **************************************************************

    Movie Classic – WAR GAMES …..This is the “lesson” scene from the movie War Games. Where we learn that the only way to win in Nuclear War is not to play.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NHWjlCaIrQo

  35. SBS News
    ‏Verified account @SBSNews

    Exclusive: Labor is promising an $8 million boost for community language schools, if it wins the election @marija_ziv

  38. William Bowe @ #2130 Friday, February 15th, 2019 – 4:05 pm

    According to that graph, about a dozen so – but I suspect they’re all Young Libs, Pentecostals &/or Mormons…how do these percentage thingies work anyway?

    The y-axis is the percentage of the electorate’s total population. So a bit less than 10% of the population of Flinders is aged 20-40, where around 14% is more normal.

    Um yes. Sorry WB, I was pathetically trying for flippancy.

  39. Fozzie Logic says:
    Friday, February 15, 2019 at 3:57 pm
    More common sense from PvO…

    —————
    PVO doesn’t repeat that on tv or in newscorp papers in his political editors
    Problem with PVO is , leading up to and at every election he forced to follow his employers (newscorp) line of propaganda against Labor and attacking Labor

  43. Um yes. Sorry WB, I was pathetically trying for flippancy.

    It’s William. You gotta give him some clues. Especially when he is in Trunchbull mode.

  45. ‘Tricot says:
    Friday, February 15, 2019 at 3:59 pm

    ‘…it is a delusion that China gives a stuff about we 25 million or so down here…’

    I suggest another formulation.

    Does Australia matter to ‘China’ and, if so, how?
    (1) hundreds of thousands of Chinese students, their parents, their family and friends have a direct stake in and a direct or indirect experience of Australia. What all that means, I don’t know but it may mean something.
    (2) Australia provides humungous amounts of raw materials to China. It must mean something.
    (3) Australia is a significant anchor to US military might both in our own right (we are a significant middle ranking military power) and in terms of being a fulcrum between the Pacific and Indian Oceans. I am sure that that means something.
    (4) Australia is a significant market for Chinese goods. I am sure that that means something.
    (5) Australia is is a significant destination for Chinese investment.
    (6) Australian politicians say things that Chinese politicians don’t want to hear.
    (7) Australia provides an alternative model for governance, individual liberties and the like.
    (8) Many people who are Chinese or of Chinese descent live and work in Australia.

    My view is that what ‘China’ thinks about Australia is actually fairly complex and is certainly fairly nuanced.

    As for On the Beach, it made for excellent car racing.

  47. ‘Zoidlord says:
    Friday, February 15, 2019 at 4:19 pm

    SeditiousSarah
    VictoriousVictorian
    ‏ @WhistlingWhist
    28m28 minutes ago

    Former Nauru president seeks asylum in Australia’

    Well, we could save some money by walking him straight into the Nauru Detention Centre. He may be there for some time because he is not covered by the Medivac Act.

  48. in my view it’s going to be interesting how Labor handles the environment.

    In both climate change policy and water policy it’s clear we have to choose the environment above jobs no matter how well the vested interests argue their case.

    The evidence is in. Those vested interests should have to prove they are not damaging the environment. Not have an assertion they are not be the benchmark.

    Edit: this line of thinking inspired by the LNP belief they would have lost to Adam Bandt on energy policy by extending QT

  49. ‘Dandy Murray says:
    Friday, February 15, 2019 at 4:13 pm

    BW,

    I swear I heard John Quiggin make all of those point (and a coupe more) back in the days when he still had a beard.’

    Quiggin! Sensible chap!

    I have previously pointed out that I have several layers of skin in the game. Quite a few family members are major irrigators.

    We have water rights and part of our income is derived from selling our annual allocations.
    In turn, we have used part of the profits thus gained to revegetate 2 km of Goulburn River frontage.

Comments Page 43 of 48
1 … 42 43 44 … 48

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *