Essential Research has come out with a second poll in consecutive weeks, the previous one having departed from its normal practice in having a longer field work period and a later release, tailored to work around the interruption of the long weekend. Coming after a period in which a media narrative of Labor taking on water over franking credits has taken hold, the results of the latest poll are striking: the Coalition has sunk four points on the primary vote to 34%, Labor is up two to 38%, the Greens and One Nation are steady on 10% and 7% respectively, and Labor’s two-party lead has blown out from 52-48 to 55-45. Other questions relate to the banking royal commission: you can read more about them from The Guardian, or await for Essential’s full report, which I assume will be with us later today.
UPDATE: Full report here. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1067.
zoomster
says:
Friday, February 15, 2019 at 4:19 pm
nath
‘It’s the most beautiful part of the state.’
And yet I moved away from it, to somewhere more beautiful!
______________________________________
To Indi! I bet you miss the cool changes that drop the temp 15 degrees in 20 minutes on hot days. It will take 4 days to get to you up there!
And the beaches! No it’s not possible, although I’m sure it’s lovely where you are.
While the environmental issues related to Global Warming and to river flows have been relatively well publicized, there is some massive stuff happening in Australia that has raised barely a peep:
1. Desertification caused by de facto goat farming.
2. The impact of feral camels, horses, donkeys, deer and fish.
3. The ever-increasing impact of environmental weeds.
Australia’s contribution to the Anthropocene Extinction Event is not taking a backward step.
Sorry. I mean the government changing its policy so it would not come to the vote.
So many losses I got confused. The QT extension of course was about Senator Steele Johns calls for a Royal Commission in to Disability Care.
nath
I actually have beaches. I don’t have to wash the salt off after I swim. And we live in a mountain valley, so we get cold nights.
BW, Thanks for the reply.
I am in the throes of testing a simulated annealing model for a bread manufacturer, so will not, just now, reply in detail. However, to begin:
I believe the major problem with virtually all of your analysis is a failure to understand that the health of the entire MDB, and in particular the whole Darling and northern section, is dependant on floods occurring, every 3 to 4 years, as they have since time immemorial, until we totally screwed the system by installing dams, big and small, and levees. River red gums do not germinate unless the seeds are submerged . Many of the native fish do not breed unless their billabongs are refreshed by floods. If the period between floods is increased too far, and water levels become too low, then massive fish kills occur, and all, and I mean all, normal algae and crustaceans are killed by anaerobic decay.
The MDBC, in its interaction with politicians, completely ignored the input of biologists, botanists and ecologists. In my view, your global economics style arguments have no relevance to the problem.
Your statements about water, pesticide and fertiliser consumption by cotton crops are, to my direct knowledge, simply wrong. I have, on this computer, detailed budget models for two medium sized cotton farms in the Narrabri area. Suffice to say that I know your figures are incorrect. It is an almost trivial calculation to determine that for Cubbie Station to bring to harvest the area it plants to cotton has required between 3 and 11 times the rainfall that has fallen on the property over the past ten years. Two of those years were high rainfall years. Digest that!
The key point remains that the MDB, if it is not to become a wrecked semi-desert, needs floods, not ‘controlled water allocations’. As I alluded to earlier in this exchange, my younger son is the Technical Director, Bodiversity of the largest ecological consulting firm in the country. He has carried out major projects relating to this problem, as a result of which changes have been made along the Murray branch of the basin, to periodically flood the state forests and national parks, by diverting flows from behind the multiple weirs along the river into these forests.
As I have also stated earlier, BW, the problem is far more complicated than your limited knowledge base, and analytical capacity can encompass. Applying some sort of steady state, averaging, economic based analysis to it will produce disastrous outcomes, as is already being demonstrated.
davidwh @ #2117 Friday, February 15th, 2019 – 3:52 pm
David, we do need a strong opposition in this country to stop the excesses of incompetent Governments. Let’s hope that this election will clean the Howard followers out and give a true Liberal Government, not one just using the party name.
Attempts by the SA Greens to reform abortion law and faith-based lobby groups opposed to the proposed changes
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-15/catholic-church-to-send-letter-on-abortion-law-reform/10816294
zoomster
says:
Friday, February 15, 2019 at 4:38 pm
nath
I actually have beaches. I don’t have to wash the salt off after I swim. And we live in a mountain valley, so we get cold nights.
___________________
Hmmm, sounds pretty good. I’m prepared to call it a draw.
The USA economy is 80% retail sales – the data placing a drag on the DJIA close and the Futures is the realistic assessment of the individual in the White House and his “performance”
Mind you, we have the same problem here
William Bowe says:
Friday, February 15, 2019 at 3:31 pm
I don’t know who Ucomm is, but 52.8 for Hunt among 18-34s is weird.
Happily, no one in that age cohort lives in Flinders anyway.
–
It’s a bit more than than “no-one” William according to AEC December 2018 figures- unless of course Im reading the figures wrong or its a lame source.
Works out 18-34 age cohort in Flinders amounts to 22,668 or 20.7% of the electorate
https://www.aec.gov.au/enrolling_to_vote/enrolment_stats/elector_count/2018/elector-count-dec-2018.pdf
Still, I would love a ‘please explain’ from people in the know as to why the 18-34s in Flinders are the highest voter support for Munster Hunt in a survey sponsored by GetUp of all people. There is something inexplicable here as I see it.
Guytaur, any form of agriculture causes environmental damage. Firstly, eliminate the original ecosystem. Secondly, defend the new ‘ecosystem’ against invading pests and plants. Thirdly, movement of inputs and outputs causes emissions. Fourthly, water management upsets the normal existing flows. Fiftly, leakage of fertiliser and pesticides affects other ecosystems. Sixthly, soil is degraded (biota and nutrients) and lost to runoff or wind.
Amen Tom.
…there we go. I’ve just been down to the river, had a dip and come back again.
I’m reading an article on The Guardian
Scott Morrison may face second parliamentary defeat – this time by Nationals
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/15/scott-morrison-may-face-second-parliamentary-defeat-this-time-by-nationals
I’ve reached this comment.
ManoSand
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/15/scott-morrison-may-face-second-parliamentary-defeat-this-time-by-nationals#comment-125891031
Given the Nationals support it’s got me thinking. Could this bill be turned against workers unions? For example, if an individual worker is considered as a business does this make unions obsolete? Or, could larger unions be considered equivalent to a big business in IR disputes with smaller businesses?
Well, the Coalition must have been hoping that the voters will stop thinking of climate change by election time.
Looks like they called it wrong, biggly
Looks like El Nino is coming with a vengeance
https://thenewdaily.com.au/weather/2019/02/15/bom-autumn-outlook-warm/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=PM%20Update%2020190215
The “new” generation of Liberals may be no better than the “old guard, sourced as they are from the IPA
This “new generation” are also beholden to “free” markets, the most effective form of regulation is self regulation and that austerity leads to confidence
All of which underpins “trickle down” ecenomics
Again, read Stiglitz who is the lead voice in commentary (but not the only one).
Observer
Careful that’s “Socialist” talk 🙂
Yabba,
Your conclusions about river management ring true.
Some years ago I heard an interview on RN about river variability. There is apparently an index, the vast majority of rivers in Europe, the Americas and Asia have a river variablity index of below 2.
Australian rivers start in the many hundreds and go to many thousands.
The entire ecosystem depends on regular and severe flooding.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/state/qld/2019/02/15/plume-hits-great-barrier-reef/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=PM%20Update%2020190215
<…the Queensland government has hit back, saying the review was free of political interference and Adani has known since 2014 that it had to produce a proper plan to protect a bird teetering on the edge of extinction.
University of Melbourne ecologist Brendan Wintle chairs the panel that reviewed the plan and said claims of bias were “a political tactic”.
Professor Wintle said the review had drawn on scientific evidence from widely recognised experts, and panel members were experts in biology, conservation and sustainability.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/state/qld/2019/02/15/endangered-black-throated-finch-could-derail-adanis-queensland-coal-mine-report/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=PM%20Update%2020190215
Indeed.
https://johnquiggin.com/2018/02/03/greens-back-renationalisation/
The Greens have announced a policy of renationalising the electricity grid, starting with transmission. Since that’s exactly what I proposed last year, it’s no surprise that I agree.
The crucial aspect of the policy is that it should begin with a reduction in the allowable rate of return to a level comparable with the long-term government bond rate. This ensures that the assets can be reacquired at their true value rather than paying the premium invariably associated with regulated rates of return based on spurious market comparators.
On a more snarky note, I can’t resist the observation that these assets were never fully privatised in the literal sense of the term. Rather, in many cases, they were sold to foreign governments operating through sovereign wealth funds.
It would seem to me that if ScoMo is under threat from members of his own Coalition, then he has lost the authority to be Prime Minister (under the definition that the Liberals (and their journo mates) usually apply: unfettered control over parliament and the executive.
I am all for waiting until May for the election, to turf this particularly virulent strain of mendacious scum out of parliament, but seeing the sheer weight of merde showing up as their behaviour towards our democracy, I wish we could turf this Coalition government out of our Houses next week.
Lizzie says:
Friday, February 15, 2019 at 4:52 pm
Massive plumes of polluted floodwater spanning the entire coast of north-east Queensland are encroaching on the outer reaches of the Great Barrier Reef, sparking a fresh threat to the beleaguered natural wonder.
I’m gonna be cynical and bet Adani et al have taken advantage of this to dump a pile of coal infested crap in amongst it in the GBR and the Bowen Basin wetlands.
ADANI ABBOTT POINT – YES, ABBOTT POINT – NAMED AFTER A CLIMATE CHANGE DENIER IF U ASK ME.
That black-throated finch is very beautiful with its tones of tan, brown, greys and black over red legs. Considerably more beautiful than a lump of coal.
Puff,
They will be out of Parliament at the end of next week!
At least until April. 😆
I would never support it, but it seems the best deterrence of attack on Australia is having our own nuclear weapons.
That is a trip down a terrible wormhole and one we should never take. I assume our neighbours would be quick to arm up too. We would be back at Mutually Assured Destruction. But if we had taken up nuclear weapons when the UK did, would we now be seen as more that an USA lackey?
Boerwar says:
Friday, February 15, 2019 at 3:48 pm
In my humble opinion an excellent post that summed up the situation well.
SA will not be happy. You just killed of a very larger orange and wine industry.
The cap on buy backs has to be removed and the price should reflect the cost of delivery. If this was done the SA industry would self close.
B/W @3.59…………..Ever the optimist………….The Pearl River Delta – roughly the size of Tassie, has many mega cities (now including HK on the high speed rail network) and these too would be rubble when the missiles start raining down on the land of Oz. Probably now, with 5 million plus living in Melbourne, a city in New Zealand my well be the last to be hit………………in the End Times…………..It is true, that China has some vested interest in Oz already, but don’t think any of the items you listed would make an iota of difference when push (the button) comes to shove………………..I would be more concerned about Indonesia in the interim……………….
Mavis Smith @ #2150 Friday, February 15th, 2019 – 4:30 pm
And, in news just in, black is white and up is down.
The real question for the national grid is how are to fund and build the news lines that are needed for renewables.There is a 8 billion dollar investment to be made. This bunch are not even asking the questions; the Labor policy makes the money available, but to whom?
BB@2:56pm
I agree that we should have Nuclear weapons along with Intercontinental ballistic missiles capacity. That is the greatest deterrent for any country that is thinking of attacking us. I will give 2 examples.
1. Before India got Nuclear weapons, Pakistan went to war with India 4 times. India had to repel those attacks at great cost. After India got nuclear weapons, Pakistan did not go to war a single time. Instead they are following a strategy called ‘death by thousand cuts’ i. e. send terrorists across the border and kill people in India. In the process Pakistan became an incubator and facilitator of terrorists. However, that country is now bankrupt, ungovernable and a pariah.
My point is Pakistan did not go to war after India acquired nuclear weapons.
Second example
A small country like North Korea by acquiring Nuclear weapons is preventing US from launching a war against North Korea and forcing it to negotiating table.
But but but Turnbull solved the runoff problem.
https://twitter.com/DavidSharaz/status/867965985742966788
Boerwar @ #2152 Friday, February 15th, 2019 – 4:37 pm
Very true. I just did a quick back-of-the-envelope calculation, and if you take Australia’s own emissions, and then add in the emissions generated from burning all the coal and gas that we export, I think Australia may in fact be the world’s sixth largest greenhouse gas emitter (after China, the US, the EU, India & Russia)
Think about that for a few minutes, and be ready the next time someone tries to tell you that it is not worth our while doing anything because we are only responsible for a tiny percentage of the world’s total greenhouse gas emissions.
We are culpable 🙁
Yabba
I will take your points more or less one at a time.
‘I believe the major problem with virtually all of your analysis is a failure to understand that the health of the entire MDB, and in particular the whole Darling and northern section, is dependant on floods occurring, every 3 to 4 years, as they have since time immemorial, until we totally screwed the system by installing dams, big and small, and levees. River red gums do not germinate unless the seeds are submerged . Many of the native fish do not breed unless their billabongs are refreshed by floods. If the period between floods is increased too far, and water levels become too low, then massive fish kills occur, and all, and I mean all, normal algae and crustaceans are killed by anaerobic decay.’
I see that I have simplified my responses a bit too much. Happy to engage in more complex discussions. We have flood germinated River Red Gums on our land. We exclude grazing and so have a new age class of River Red Gums.
I am well aware of the situation with the fish fauna of the MDB. Both altered flooding and altered water temperature regimes have smashed that fish fauna. In the waters adjacent to our land in the MDB we have lost, to my knowledge, every single species of native fish. I know this because (a) I am a rec angler, (b) I have a dip net habit and am insatiably curious about what is in the water and (c) I read the literature. (The lower catchment areas in the Goulburn Broken Catchment do still carry some populations of native fish but it is years since I have seen or caught or dip netted a native fish where we are.) I know that the main reason is that the water comes from the depths of Lake Eildon and is too cold to trigger breeding. Competition from Rainbow Trout, Brown Trout, European carp, Redfin, Roach, Crucian carp, Weather Loach, Tench, and Gambusia sp have done the rest. Other stuff goes to riparian veg, desnagging, changes to nutrients and the like. I am also aware that something like 90% of the MDB fish biomass is European Carp.
I have long been concerned about the biodiversity implications of the altered flooding regimes. this issue – and that this has important long term structural implications. For example, in the absence of floods no new billabongs will form. The older billabongs will suffer eutrophication. Billabongs will disappear… in fact they ARE disappearing.
What do?
The only way to restore all of the MDB to its pristine state is to remove all the dams and barriers, revegetate the inland slopes of the great divide and the plains, remove cattle, remove the towns, initiate major programs of environmental weed and feral animal control, and remove all irrigation.
That is not going to happen. Ever.
Using that outcome as a benchmark for the environmental efficacy of the MDB Plan is, IMO, more or less totally politically, socially and economically impractical.
The best we can reasonably hope for is that all MDB environmental values are sustained in some parts of the MDB. In effect, that is exactly what the MDB Plan sets out to do. This means that there will be mass fish deaths, that there will be blue green algae events, that the River Red Gum and Coolibah flood plain forests will be a shadow of their former glory, that native fish populations will be a shadow of their former selves, that fish distributions will be small fraction of what once was. You may wish to discuss.
BTW, we have been engaged in discussions with the environmental flow managers in relation to our land, all of which is potentially subject to flooding. The situation is that, if the environmental flow managers deliberately floods our land, the water stays on some of the land for up to six months. This wrecks the pastures and obviously means a direct loss of production and income. They wanted to know our attitude. ‘Go ahead’, was our response. The reality is that we can afford it but that most farmers in flood prone areas can’t afford to give up significant income so that their land can be flooded for environmental purposes. I mention this example to reinforce the point about what is practicable and what is not practicable, raised above. I will address some of your other points in other posts.
Here he is in an embedded tweet so you dont have to click on it…
Damn Ii!
Drinks
Tricot
The proposition is that China would nuke Australia in a given set of circumstances.
The ONLY circumstance that I can think of is M.A.D.
In which all bets are off.
In relation to China’s general relationship with Australia, I am aware that we are not in the first rank of important and urgent relationships: India, Russia and the US are all far more important.
But, IMO, we are an important second tier nation in terms of China’s interests.
I’m cherry picking these quotes, but there is so much wrong with this.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/feb/15/emissions-reduction-fund-could-be-used-to-upgrade-40-year-old-coal-fired-power-plant
‘frednk says:
Friday, February 15, 2019 at 5:15 pm
Boerwar says:
Friday, February 15, 2019 at 3:48 pm
In my humble opinion an excellent post that summed up the situation well.
SA will not be happy. You just killed of a very larger orange and wine industry.
The cap on buy backs has to be removed and the price should reflect the cost of delivery. If this was done the SA industry would self close.’
Thank you. I admit to giving in to my base provocative instincts.
swamprat@3:06pm
Ofcourse we should have Independent foreign and defence policy. I was just explaining what our policy was and why other did not attack us and why our defence expenditure was low.
Simon² Katich® @ #2187 Friday, February 15th, 2019 – 5:23 pm
Mal demonstrates he can’t even answer a question when put on the spot by a five year old 🙁
Boerwar says:
Friday, February 15, 2019 at 4:37 pm
While the environmental issues related to Global Warming and to river flows have been relatively well publicized, there is some massive stuff happening in Australia that has raised barely a peep:
1. Desertification caused by de facto goat farming.
2. The impact of feral camels, horses, donkeys, deer and fish.
3. The ever-increasing impact of environmental weeds.
Australia’s contribution to the Anthropocene Extinction Event is not taking a backward step.
Since goat farming has started ( they only started to have a commercial value in the last 20 years) the feral goat population has fallen.
The solution to camels, horses, donkeys, deer and fish is to find a commercial market.
The run off endangering the Barrier Reef is just another element that damns humanity as a destructive virus upon the planet. In our greed, everything we touch is injured or destroyed — yet the ‘money arm’ of our species continues to operate with alacrity, killing us along with the eventual destruction of the entire ecosystem.
We should have a climate change levy, world-wide, like our Medicare levy, where every single human being, and every single business (pro rata), pays for remediation.
T’otherwise we really are dooming the planet to irreversible change.
BW,
Thanks for the reply. Have to tic-tac with my client.
Most of my comments apply to the Darling and its catchment. I realise that the Murray is mostly too far gone. Especially with regard to native fish.
Yabba
‘The MDBC, in its interaction with politicians, completely ignored the input of biologists, botanists and ecologists. In my view, your global economics style arguments have no relevance to the problem. ‘
Your first sentence is, as a matter of historical fact, incorrect.
In relation to your second comment, Mr Marx would beg to differ! Or, follow the money! I understand that you are committed to your definition of the problem as a purely environmental problem, but resource distribution in the MDB was, and will always be, a matter of the interplay between political, scientific, social and economic domains.
Rex Douglas says:
Friday, February 15, 2019 at 2:05 pm
On zoomsters logic
Coal miners say we need to dig up more coal.
They’re the experts so they must be right !!
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
I’m with you on this Rex.
I’ve never been convinced Australia needs these expensive submarines, not when there are so many other things we could spend taxpayers’ dollars on. I’m not anti-defence, as some on the far left appear to be. We do need a military to defend us in case of dangerous events, in this not-so-perfect world of ours.
But I cannot see what purpose these submarines would fulfil in the foreseeable future, that could not be met by our existing defence weaponry. Of course the navy would say it needs them, just as the police and security services say they need more powers.
Rex is right; these matters should be determined independently of the vested interests who propose them.
The Coal terminal that Adani want to expand and use is Abbot Point (one ‘t’). Maybe we could rename it Abbott Point in ‘honour’ of Australia’s foremost climate denier.
This is starting to look very House of Cards for Dutton
https://www.afr.com/news/policy/foreign-affairs/home-affairs-sought-to-delete-foi-clause-from-manus-contract-20190214-h1b8yb
Late Riser @ #2189 Friday, February 15th, 2019 – 5:28 pm
All things being equal, Mr St Baker won’t have a snowball’s chance in hell of getting his disastrous dream realised. If Labor are fortunate enough to form the next federal government, that is.