BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor

BludgerTrack returns from hibernation, albeit with only one new poll result to play with.

The return of Essential Research provided the BludgerTrack mill with its first grist for the new year, but the model is at its least robust when it only has one data point to play with after a long gap. This means BludgerTrack strongly follows the lead of a poll that was less bad for the Coalition than their usual form, resulting in a substantial reduction in Labor’s still commanding lead on two-party preferred. Labor is also down six on the seat projection – one in each mainland state and two in Queensland. The Essential poll also included a new set of numbers for the leadership ratings, and these produced a weak result for Bill Shorten that has blunted his recent improving trend. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,129 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor”

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  1. Vogon Poet @ #2790 Tuesday, January 22nd, 2019 – 12:50 pm

    IoM @ #3098 Tuesday, January 22nd, 2019 – 3:45 pm


    Labor had a candidate preselected for Bennelong but installed Brian Owler as the candidate instead. Labor does it as well from time to time.

    Labor’s former candidate Lyndal Howison wrote to party members this morning, telling them she had withdrawn from the race to make way for a better candidate who would “give us the best chance of delivering a Labor government at the next federal election”.

    Thanks VP that’s how I remember it.

    I don’t think Howison is planning to run as an independent.

  2. Labor’s former candidate Lyndal Howison wrote to party members this morning, telling them she had withdrawn from the race to make way for a better candidate who would “give us the best chance of delivering a Labor government at the next federal election”.

    I’m sure she was ecstatic she was dumped and no-one tried to ‘heavy’ her. She took one for the team.

  3. Mundine’s political journey of which the latest step is still to be categorically confirmed.

    The move would complete a lifelong political journey by Mundine from the Labor party, of which he was national president in 2006, to the conservative side of politics, via a stint as the chairman of Tony Abbott’s Indigenous Advisory Council. Mundine has only just applied for Liberal party membership.
    Mundine has refused to confirm or deny his intention to run for the Liberals, but told Channel Nine news that an announcement would be made “one way or the other within the next 24 hours”.

    Perhaps the local blowback will put the kibosh on his candidature.

  4. Barney

    Labor handled the process better, but my original point was that Labor does sometimes put candidates in over those that where preselected.

  5. So the point stands Labor parachuted an outsider into an electorate to displace an existing candidate. A point I also made earlier…posed as a question, but I knew the answer.

    Just as the Coalition does.

  6. Lots of ‘rats in the ranks’ today. !!

    Clive Palmer has channelled his corporate empire through New Zealand and threatened to use free trade rules to sue Australian taxpayers for $45 billion as part of a dispute with a Chinese mining company.

    Mr Palmer, who has re-emerged as one of Australia’s richest people according to Forbes magazine, last month transferred the ownership of his flagship Mineralogy company to an Auckland-based holding company.

  7. “Pegasus
    Perhaps the local blowback will put the kibosh on his [Mundine’s] candidature.”

    And make Morrison look even more of a goose.

  8. Someone said what is the third stuff-up for Morrison today – well now we know.

    Endorsed candidate for seat they will probably lose quits Liberal Party and declares he will run as an independent!

    Schultz was live on ABC24 just now

  9. C

    Is that even possible! But please don’t malign geese. They make for fantastic guard dogs and are far more useful than a Morrison.

  10. Preselected candidates always resign of their own volition.


    IN another khaki coup, Labor has dumped its candidate for the seat of La Trobe and is moving to install a star military recruit and former Victorian of the Year.
    In a swift coup yesterday, Labor’s national executive re-opened nominations for La Trobe, effectively axing candidate Greg Pargeter, a senior industrial officer with the United Firefighters Union and former teacher.

    Mr Pargeter last night declared himself “devastated”, suggesting his axing was “based on a highly personal campaign of smear and denigration”.

  11. IoM @ #2813 Tuesday, January 22nd, 2019 – 1:16 pm


    She was clearly asked to resign.

    Not necessarily.

    Labor could have gone to a number of candidates in marginal seats and said;

    We’ve got Brian Owler lined up as a candidate for the next election.

    Is anyone having second thoughts or willing to step aside for him?

    Howison put up her hand and said, “I will.”


    A $1.1bn plan announced by Labor to build up Australia’s hydrogen industry has been welcomed by environmental groups, so long as it is backed by renewable power.
    (Australia Institute) But he said it would “be disappointing if any proposed support for the new industry would go to hydrogen made using gas or coal, on the basis of businesses making dubious promises to capture and bury resulting greenhouse gases”.
    The Australian Conservation Foundation said a $1.1bn commitment to the industry was “a win for the environment, regional communities and job creation so long as it backed by renewable power”.
    “But in a world where we must urgently stop climate pollution to limit the damage from global warming, only hydrogen produced from clean energy sources, not polluting coal and gas, is acceptable,” Harter said.

  13. I have always been somewhat bemused by Mundine’s progress in public life. Never has someone with so little ability, conned so many and progressed so far.

    Josh Frydenberg wants to know why you haven’t heard of him.

  14. A $3 million hydrogen ‘innovation hub’ would also be established in Gladstone, presently a major port for gas exports. While most of Labor’s spending would be directed to hydrogen from renewable sources, it is understood the Gladstone hub may also support hydrogen produced from fossil fuels using carbon capture and storage.

    Looks like the Minerals Council of Australia supports Labor’s plan.

  15. In regard the dysfunctional and dangerous treasurer.

    During the first phase of the mining boom the government accelerated the transmission of that mining boom to the economy by handing out tax cuts and by other measures (Vanstone’s “a sandwich a week” to median income earners, the reduction in the Capital Gains Tax regime and franking credits, anyone?)

    That is where we got the credit growth we got (again, RBA 10 Year Data showing the amount we owed to our home mortgage lenders increased from $335 Billion to $1.226 Trillion from January 2000 until January 2010), double digit house price growth and double digit retail sales growth from.

    The dysfunctional treasurer is a nong of the first order, noting the definition of “nong” is able to be gleaned from some of the nonsense which appears on this site.

    And he is dangerous.

    The delivery under the watch of this dysfunctional, right wing austerity driven government and treasurer will replicate the outcome in the early 1980’s when double digit unemployment, double digit inflation and Commercial Bills discounting at 25% (with the non “Grandfathered” Home Loans at 17.5%) saw Howard, as treasurer, freeze salary and wages increases with catastrophic repercussions including the collapse of banks (we had 7 “Free Enterprise Banks”, remember?)

    I would hope that this dysfunctional and dangerous treasurer is called out by media commentators as the fraud he is.

  16. Grant Schultz quitting Liberals to run as independent in Gilmore has finally made it onto The Australian website after half an hour.

    Still not on Fairfax or Guardian. I think this is the biggest political story of the day – has certainly taken ‘the wind out of the sails’ of Morrison’s bizarre Cook’s tour where the Endeavour can now discover Western Australia, South Australia and Tasmania having missed out on them last time .

  17. Rocket Rocket

    A surprisingly pro worker headline from Mordor Media.

    Billion-dollar pub empire Merivale, owned by Justin Hemmes, cranky about having to pay staff properly

  18. Rocket

    I’ll take the credit for tipping Morrison had a third disaster still to come.

    And I’ll say again I can’t wait to see him in full on election campaign mode. Neither he nor those advising him appear to have a clue.

    March 2 has long been my election tip and I am sure that for some of the clown’s colleague s it can’t be soon enough.

  19. Sceptic: “Bill. Hydrogen …. coal!
    Has he gone MAD ?

    From your linked article:

    “The South Australian Labor government also announced a few hydrogen projects before it lost the recent state election.

    The biggest of those, a 50MW wind and solar-fuelled electrolyser at the new Hydrogen Hub to be built by Neoen near Crystal Brook, would deliver 20 tonnes of hydrogen a day, at a fraction of the cost of the brown coal scheme.

    The entire complex, including 150MW of solar, about 150MW of wind, the 50MW hydrogen plant along with up to 400MWh of battery storage, would cost around $600 million.

    There is another wind-solar fuelled hydrogen electrolyser announced for Port Lincoln, that will produce 10 tonnes a day from a plant that will cost just $35 million.”

    Sounds good to me…

  20. Dumping a candidate to run a better one is regrettable but understandable.

    Dumping a candidate to run Mundine….not really.

    btw, pegasus, given that the Greens did nothing about public housing when they had the opportunity, I guess they’ll keep doing nothing about it in future.

  21. rossmcg

    Morrison continues to surprise me with acts of stupidity.

    I saw you also said you hoped to do a “Darling run” in the future.

    If the Coalition in NSW and Federally stay in power you will probably soon be able to – in your running shoes along the dry riverbed from end to end.

  22. “The whole thesis that Henry VII killed the Princes lacks credibility considering the boys’ sister married him and from historical sources was happy with him.”

    My money is on Buckingham

  23. Dumped Liberal candidate for Gilmore Grant Schultz is speaking after losing pre-selection to Warren Mundine.

    ‘I can no longer be a member of a party that does not support democracy, or act with integrity.’

    His eyes are opened. 🙂

  24. RR

    Earlier in the day burgey piped up Shorten supported Morrison’s Cook endeavour. He must have tested the wind and decided he had nothing to lose by now coming out to oppose it. Sort of.

    He made the usual ambiguous response:

    Mr Shorten, when asked if he would maintain the funding, told reporters in Rockhampton: “I’m not going to get caught in some sort of bizarre Captain Cook fetish which Mr Morrison wants me to engage in.

    Is it so difficult to answer “No, I will not maintain the funding.” ?

  25. More on Frydenberg’s speech, in case you care.

    The sky is falling!

    “For Labor, the pursuit of class warfare is more than rhetoric. It is at the heart of their policies from tax to trade to industrial relations. It’s a dark shadow not a light on the hill.

    “Labor has ignored the message from the Productivity Commission that our tax and transfer system has been successful in reducing income inequality and that the one constant that matters most in tackling inequality and poverty is having a job.

    “Instead, Labor is promising one of the most radical, aggressive and dangerous tax and redistribution agendas Australia has ever seen. Putting at risk our prosperity and harmony and taking us back decades.

  26. TPOF @ #2780 Tuesday, January 22nd, 2019 – 4:39 pm

    C@tmomma says:
    Tuesday, January 22, 2019 at 4:28 pm
    In a speech to the conservative Sydney Institute on Tuesday, the Treasurer will say the “invisible hand of capitalism delivers far more than the dead hand of socialism”

    Yes, but which ideology delivers how much, and to whom?


    Neither ideology delivers. Because whatever good ideas are embedded in the ideologies are more than outweighed by the mindless inflexibility applied to them. However, the democratic socialism of The Australian Labor Party has been less bound by the inflexibility of socialist ideology than the lunatics now in charge of the government – a concept that they hate with a vengeance.

    Also, I think it worth mentioning, especially with the recent seeming influx of Socialist Alliance supporters to PB, that a pure form of Far Left Socialism, of the type espoused by Jim Casey, Julie and Justin Wilson and Ian Rintoul in Australia, and the International Socialist Organisation more generally, and which Pegasus is not averse in supporting, that they also reflect a similar inflexibility of ideas which takes no notice of the checquered history of their own movement as they seek to vociferously criticise those they see as less pure of heart here.

    Somehow, Labor is supposed to come around to their way of thinking in order to get their purist tick of approval, when we all know that when governments have been formed under their ideological banner they have been just as chaotic and discriminatory as any other. For example, Venezuala. You could almost say that their motto is, ‘For the Few, Not the Many’.

    Which is why I find the criticism of the Labor Party here by them a bit rich.

  27. Josh Frydenburg and his party is also in pursuit of the cause of, and practical implementation of, class warfare. It’s just that it is the Upper Class against the Working Class that he is fighting for.

  28. I said before that this present LNP will be lucky to stop Labor winning 100+ seats whenever the LNP are willing to face the voters.
    The treasurer is delusional, the PM just bloody stupid and the DPM ?

  29. Rocket

    In my dreams of the aftermath of a Shorten Labor victory I hope the revelations of the corruption and mismanagement that has gone on in the MDB will see all the big irrigators so discredited (or in jail or out of business) that when the drought breaks, as it will, they don’t dare harvest a drop and it all goes down the rivers.

    A man’s gotta dream …

  30. Socialism provides some pretty good ideals which can be woven in to combat the excesses of capitalism and create a fairer Society to live in.

  31. ScoMo the stand-up comic. One of his staffers has done some research!
    (Don’t bother to watch if you’re sick of him. I am.)

    Cooktown: “Going where no one’s gone before, all those sort of things.” Scott Morrison attempts to quote James Cook from his journal & tells the anecdote of Cook being the inspiration for James T Kirk from Star Trek. #auspol #qldpol

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