BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor

BludgerTrack returns from hibernation, albeit with only one new poll result to play with.

The return of Essential Research provided the BludgerTrack mill with its first grist for the new year, but the model is at its least robust when it only has one data point to play with after a long gap. This means BludgerTrack strongly follows the lead of a poll that was less bad for the Coalition than their usual form, resulting in a substantial reduction in Labor’s still commanding lead on two-party preferred. Labor is also down six on the seat projection – one in each mainland state and two in Queensland. The Essential poll also included a new set of numbers for the leadership ratings, and these produced a weak result for Bill Shorten that has blunted his recent improving trend. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,129 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor”

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  1. RD,

    That darned S word again.

    I look forward to Clem appearing. He seems to be a genuine democratic socialist who is not shy about pushing back against the ALP uber right.

  2. Unless the Libs have some erstwhile unknown character information on Schultz, the Captain’s Choice to overturn the Lib candidate’s pre-selection in Gilmore is astounding. Mundine is broadly unknown, not a Memebr of the Liberal Party, has no connection to the area he is attempting to represent and had 20 odd years of Labor Party Membership and token seniority in the Labor Movement.

    All this is saying the Libs have lost faith in their processes and their Membership.

    Perhaps the seat was too far gone to save anyways so Morrison wanted to try something (anything!) to change up the situation.

    I’m still thinking the Libs may go for a Leadership change to Julie Bishop. The polling must be dire and even conservatives like Dutton, Abbott and Andrews will be feeling the chill wind of oblivion calling that they’d be prepared to elect as PM someone they hate so intensely.

    It’only Tuesday!

  3. Pegasus: “I look forward to Clem appearing. He seems to be a genuine democratic socialist who is not shy about pushing back against the ALP uber right.”

    Clem – “kicking against the pricks” – supposedly the blog’s biggest prick puncturing the egos of those he feels need puncturing as an end in itself.

    But – did you notice – his targets are mostly if not exclusively female – hardly the place one would first look for egos that need puncturing…

    Monty Python had it first, and were more funny. From memory it went like this:

    “Isn’t it awfully nice to own a penis?
    Isn’t it frightfully good to have a dong?
    It’s swell to have a stiffy!
    It’s divine to have a dick!
    From the tiniest little todger…
    To the world’s biggest prick…
    Your piece of pork,
    Your wife’s best friend,
    Your Percy or your Cock
    You can wrap it up in ribbons
    You can stick it in a sock
    But… don’t take it out in public,
    or they’ll stick you in the dock…
    And you Won’t. Come. Back!”

    Perhaps we should move on?

  4. Cooktown: “Going where no one’s gone before, all those sort of things.” Scott Morrison attempts to quote James Cook from his journal & tells the anecdote of Cook being the inspiration for James T Kirk from Star Trek. #auspol #qldpol

    Of course, except for Antarctica, plenty of people had gone before Cook to the places he visited. They just hadn’t done it on a few “voyages of discovery”.

  5. Rex Douglas,

    Given how you oppose unionism and want to prop up the gambling industry – the only two issues I’ve really seen you express an honest and clear opinion on – I don’t really see how you can call yourself a socialist.

  6. Also, many of the politicians you express fondness for – Fiona Pattern and Rob Oakeshott – are hardly socialists, either. Oakeshott is is to the right of the ALP as is Pattern on several issues.

  7. noplaceforsheep
    2m2 minutes ago

    WTF? We’re going back to terra nullius now, are we? *Where no one’s gone before*?
    Is Morrison for real?

  8. Yes ratsak, Frytheplanet is no great communicator, but at least you pick of the basic gist of what the fool is saying, unlike Mumbles Mundine.

  9. the local paper is covering this fast moving situation

    https://www.southcoastregister.com.au/story/5864261/grant-schultz-resigns-as-liberal-party-abandons-democracy/
    January 22 2019 – 4:00PM
    Gilmore hopeful Grant Schultz resigns from Liberal Party in disgust, will run as an independent
    Rebecca Fist

    A seething Grant Schultz has tendered his resignation with the Liberal Party.

    The Milton local answered a phone call from party elder statesman Philip Ruddock on Tuesday morning to discover he had been betrayed by Liberal Party figureheads. Instead of endorsing Mr Schultz who was preselected by grassroots members the state executive has moved to endorse the North Shore’s Warren Mundine in Gilmore.

    https://www.southcoastregister.com.au/story/5864878/grant-schultz-fronts-media-slams-pm-after-heartbreaking-day/
    January 22 2019 – 6:00PM
    Independent Gilmore candidate Grant Schultz lashes PM Scott Morrison for not giving him ‘a fair go’
    Rebecca Fist

    Milton local Grant Schultz delivered a passionate address to the press about the unfolding political chaos in Gilmore, which resulted in his resignation from the Liberal Party on Tuesday.

  10. Some on here complain about the price gouging that has occurred since privatization of utilities, yet they oppose socialism. Me, I would take gas, water, power etc back into public control. I cannot at all see what is so controversial about that. But here in Grouper World the RWNJ respond with their Venezuela imagery in response. They must really be attached to their shares in the power companies.

  11. I’m wondering whether Morrison is thinking “Mundine was Labor – maybe some of the voters will think he still is and vote for him by accident”

  12. Meanwhile SkyNews is interviewing a local Tasmanian Murdoch organ reporter who is telling it like it is down south….

    .@emlybkr says it feels like the Liberals are not even trying to win over Tasmania.

    ‘We haven’t heard from the PM’s office and we’re still waiting on the Hobart city deal. We feel like we’ve been left of the map.’

    MORE: bit.ly/2RKmGs1 #gleeso

  13. Jeff Kennett !!

    Yesterday – called for Kevin Andrews to retire.

    Today – A NEW DATE WILL HELP US ALL BUILD TRUST
    The tragedy of four young indigenous 15 years and younger girls taking their lives touched us all. If all Australians are to celebrate our great nation, we need a day that resonates with everyone. Find that and we’ll build trust, writes Jeff Kennett.

    Herald-Sun article, can’t Outline it.

  14. VP

    Your lack of humour is on display. I was poking fun at the art of speculation, a 24/7 past time around these parts, something I rarely indulge in.

    I have a more cautious approach and prefer to wait and/or scout around for information before jumping on any bandwagons.

    But thank you for thinking I am good. In case you don’t pick up on my vibe here…yes, I know you were being sarcastic.

  15. This Mundine fiasco could be the tipping point for Morrison. Just how inept is this bloke? I didn’t think it was possible for a Tory to be worse than Turnbull, but I think Morrison is leaving him in the shade. He seems to have no political judgement at all and every thing he does is hamfisted.

  16. And Scotty emerges with some helpful,comments about the Gilmore ham fisted fiasco..

    Another gem from our smirking simpleton PM @scottmorrisonMP:
    “When I have more to say about our candidate in Gilmore, I will say it then,”
    #facepalm #auspol

  17. zoomster says:
    Tuesday, January 22, 2019 at 6:56 pm
    ‘I’m wondering whether Morrison is thinking..’
    ———————————————
    I’m wondering what Morrison is Vaping.

  18. Oh no Lizzie, don’t say that, don’t you know it will put our whole economy at risk and we will become a banana republic overnight. Think of the children. People will be queuing for food and petrol. Ha, ha!

  19. Does ScoMo have a brain?

    I think this isn’t Captain’s Call, I think this is all coming from Powerbrokers and Elders decisions.

    They should be wiped of the map.

  20. Yeah and look how that has turned out. still waiting for our Grouper friends to link public ownership of water with an existential threat to our Australian way of life. PS, also it being part of the expansionist Russian conspiracy.

  21. OK, so I’ve been hanging out to hear RdN interviewed, given that we’ve had massive fish deaths and a wave of intense heat across the nation.

    Listened to his interview with Karvalas, not a mention of either of these issues.

    If we’re relying on the Greens to make the running on environmental issues, we are really f*cked.

  22. Privatisation of aged care has, on the whole, been a disaster .
    Turning Medibank into a private company removed any semblance of control of health insurance by gov.

  23. If it doesn’t concern identity issues and isn’t of interest to the inner city latte set, then the Black Wiggle isn’t interested either.

  24. So not only are there no women of merit in the Liberal party – because if there were, we know that they’d be preselected – but they’ve obviously run out of men of merit too, and have to take the Labor party’s cast offs.

  25. Mundine was never Labor, he was only ever for himself, that much is pretty clear. He has the front to say that the Labor party has changed, that it is not the party he joined. Thank god for that then.

  26. @ Clem Atlee

    We Queenslanders look on with some bemusement when we hear about water and electricity being delivered by the private sector. God forbid.

    Still we used to have state butchers and bakers. Even a State Brewery.

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