I’m most of the way through a thorough overhaul of BludgerTrack, which I’m commemorating here with a new post despite there having been no new national polls – although the latest state breakdowns from Newspoll are newly added to the mix. What’s different is that the Scott Morrison era trends are now being determined separately from the Malcolm Turnbull era. I haven’t yet brought the display on the sidebar up to speed, but follow the link below and you will observe separate, disconnected trend measures for the two periods (you may need to do a hard refresh to get it working properly). Where previously BludgerTrack was recording the post-coup period as an amorphous surge to Labor, now there is nuance within the Morrison-era polling – namely, a brief period of improvement for the Coalition after the post-coup landslip, followed by a shift back to Labor.
Other than that, the back end of BludgerTrack is now a lot more efficient, which means I will no longer have any excuse for not updating it immediately when a new poll is published. My next task is to get the leadership ratings back in action, as these have been pretty much in limbo since the leadership change, for a want of sufficient data on Scott Morrison to get a trend measure out of. There should also be further state-level data along soon-ish from Ipsos, which will be thrown in the mix whenever the company we must now call Nine Newspapers publishes it.
He’s a real troper for the cause, isn’t he, briefly? 🙂
C@tmomma @ #348 Sunday, December 30th, 2018 – 4:05 pm
You enable him by responding to him!
Burns, like Voges, feasted on NZ and WI trundlers and was shown up by anyone who could move the ball around a bit.
We can afford to be brave enough to pick a technically sound player v Sri Lanka who we believe can play in the UK.
C’mon Rex,
all talk and no action
Volunteer as a pill tester
at least your posts might get interesting
Peter Stanton @ #283 Sunday, December 30th, 2018 – 1:54 pm
100% agree
The key is to identify causes of events to see if their is a common pattern. There are a few common parameters
rise of merchant classes tends to destablilise monarchies
hunger causes riots
unemployment leads to all sorts of problems including civil unrest
strong military leaders are usually a source of unrest
empires rise and fall with a pattern that seems to be 150 years of gradual rise, 50-100 years cruising the apex of dominance, decline starting sharply then slowly fading over another 150 ears
Every country has a fifth column
charismatic leaders rise and fall but their impact is ephemeral
any form of new government will keep the pattern of the old. So if there is a revolution following autocratic monarchy or dictator the new government will tend to the autocratic. chage will happen but it will be gradual
GG,
It’s because he won’t go away, even if you try ignoring him. Then he just takes the opportunity with both hands to spread disinformation about Labor unchecked and unchallenged!
I consider it the lesser of two evils to call him out.
steve davis @ #343 Sunday, December 30th, 2018 – 11:58 am
That doesn’t make sense to me.
T20 is like footy, the whole match is over in a few hours and as such it fits in better when people are time poor.
It’s the other formats of the game require a much greater time commitment which is supported by the holidays. 🙂
C@tmomma @ #357 Sunday, December 30th, 2018 – 4:13 pm
Others just see it as you letting him play you like a trout.
Just because someone is wrong on the internet, doesn’t mean you need to respond.
“That doesn’t make sense to me.
T20 is like footy, the whole match is over in a few hours and as such it fits in better when people are time poor.
It’s the other formats of the game require a much greater time commitment which is supported by the holidays. ”
Just quickly I have to run, but the idea is about getting cricketers to play cricket and 50 overs is a lot more than 20. And you want, like the BBL, a product on TV when people get home from work.
So you aren’t aiming to have people watch the whole of any game, if you’ve got three games on Friday night where the second 50 overs is finishing between EST 7:30 and 9:30 you only need one to be exciting to have a product. Two exciting you can switch between.
Just a wild idea anyways.
Stats
https://mobile.twitter.com/cricketnext/status/1079219740227231744/photo/1
From the Guardian article it is obvious that Dutton discussed being a ‘stalking horse’ for Abbott with Abbott, and says he rejected it. It seems to mean that Abbott asked him to be one but was rebuffed (if you take Dutton at his word, of course).
What a nice bunch of loyal Liberals.
Test 4 at the SCG.
It is simples peeps. Replace openers for Hughes and Larkin. Replace Mitch Marsh with Henriques. Replace Shaun Marsh with Patterson. And you are nearly there.
Not sure if these guys are besties with Justin. If he cant handle that then Jaques to replace Langer.
Barney in Go Dau @ #358 Sunday, December 30th, 2018 – 4:16 pm
We always hear about the holy grail of representing Australia at Test Cricket Level and earning the baggy Green Cap. It’s about time the Administrators put in the infrastructure to enable up and coming cricketers to hone their First Class Cricket skills at the lower level before being selected.
At this time Shield Cricket has been suspended and naturally, players have taken the lucre to play BBL. We need to have shield Cricket playing through this period, it needs to be promoted and the players need to derive a living from doing so.
Otherwise we are simply playing lip service to our commitment to Test cricket being the ultimate mode of cricket.
C@tmomma @ #281 Sunday, December 30th, 2018 – 1:54 pm
Cat
You are getting upset about shadows.
Yes there was most definitely a Nazi headquarters in Ashfield in about 1962/64 and some skin heads were associated with it as well as some with German heritage. They targeted boys studying German at high school and three kids from a northern beaches high that i am aware of went to visit. special Branch investigated the matter and visited the homes of boys in the German class, especially given that they had usually drawn swastikas in their school exercise books. I think special branch WAS concerned about the recruitment of school boys (in fact I KNOW they were). Thing is that the German classes were usually taken by the good science and maths students (German was the scientific language).
Yes i too remember the Skull. My point was that the words used to deride me here could very easily have come from the mouth of the skull and his minions, because they did say very similar things.
i am sorry you were offended which is why i suggested you take time to take stock of you opinions. Fact is Cat if you talk the talk of phobic groupers and walk the walk, you can hardly get offended if people assume you are one of them. Nothing you have ever posted here marks you out for a champion of left causes. NOTHING. A few mild socially progressive notions is the sum of it.
Cat be proud of your own opinions – nothing wrong in that but it is stupid to delude yourself that you are somehow a left wing champion.
Barney
Prob why other countries havent adopted it.
Yep GG,
You’re in contention for a Test spot and either not suited to or don’t want to pick up bad habits playing T20, what are you doing at the moment?
Playing for your club on the weekend.
Crazy!!!!
In the Spectator link there is this para:
The Party must do away with the perception that it is dominated by climate-change deniers, opponents to same-sex marriage and an anti-woman culture.
I cannot for the life of me see how they can do this as they ARE a party dominated by climate-change deniers, opponents to same-sex marriage and an anti-woman culture.
They would have to deny their own belief system, and which party has ever successfully done that?
Greensborough Growler says: Sunday, December 30, 2018 at 4:29 pm
At this time Shield Cricket has been suspended and naturally, players have taken the lucre to play BBL. We need to have shield Cricket playing through this period, it needs to be promoted and the players need to derive a living from doing so.
********************************************
Totally agree GG ……. shield cricket cannot compete financially with BBL payments at present – and shield cricket comes closest to test cricket in terms of having the time/opportunity to build/craft an innings without having to slog away at every ball to satisfy a tv audience who want it all over in a nights viewing …. ….
booleanbach @ #361 Sunday, December 30th, 2018 – 4:28 pm
Turnbull has his book coming out in March. So, I’m backing there will be some interesting things emerge about Dutton at that release. Also Roman Quadliveg has his book coming out about then too. Could be even more interesting revelations.
It’s looking less and less likely that parliament will return in the New Year. best way for the Libs to avoid another Leadership Spill.
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, December 30, 2018 at 8:14 am
Good morning Bludgers
Can we just attack Peter Dutton instead of each other today please?
In fact, that’s MY New Years Resolution : Attack! Attack! Attack!
The Coalition and their media arm.
I’m just going to ignore the fleas that jump on the Labor bulldog.
____________________________________
Although C@t couples her call for progressive unity with an attack on non-ALP progressives as ‘fleas’ I think there is something in her argument. Without wishing to in any way contribute to the Coalition efforts I will refrain from my most enjoyable pursuit of Shorten bashing and my disdain for the Right of the ALP, and observe a truce until the election. After which I will scrutinize the new government with a mighty lens and hold nothing back for their shortcomings.
Greensborough Growler says: Sunday, December 30, 2018 at 4:49 pm
Turnbull has his book coming out in March. So, I’m backing there will be some interesting things emerge about Dutton at that release.
************************************************************
After todays little stab in the back stuff, Malcolm is probably at this moment re-writing his book chapter on Dutton ……
Ross ‘the Skull’ May, one of Sydney’s ‘colourful’ characters from the 60s and 70s. Recently a one of Pauline Hanson’s biggest fans: https://www.news.com.au/national/neo-nazi-the-skull-is-pauline-hansons-biggest-fan/news-story/c81f3b37c3e03cf79032af7c381df15f
nath, you’ve made that promise before. At least twice.
Simon² Katich® @ #262 Sunday, December 30th, 2018 – 2:36 pm
Bushfire Bill @ #256 Sunday, December 30th, 2018 – 2:25 pm
Gorgeous little birds.
I have spent most of the afternoon asleep and then an hour sorting out why some pictures were not showing on my desktop machine.
Mr. Bill’s wife has an exceptional clear grasp of the scientific terminology as applied to Aves.
I much prefer Mrs. Bill’s description. 🐦
Dutton.. He said Turnbull’s poor management had lost the Libs 15 seats in the 2016 election
What does he mean by management? Not having the nowse to get rid of the rabid right?
Turnbull always did what the Right told him to do. Don’t know what Dutton is complaining about.
Sceptic @ #378 Sunday, December 30th, 2018 – 1:08 pm
What was Abbott’s final Newspoll result?
Back to the Cricket!
Lots of spin though!
Greensborough Growler @ #380 Sunday, December 30th, 2018 – 1:18 pm
Brilliant.
BBC Wales was my favourite talk back station over there.
Couldn’t understand a word they said, but it sounded great! 😆
Cricket.
Paine is correct in his summary of the pitches being served up in Australia.
At the start of the last Ashes Series (so just over 12 months ago), we were told a player strike threatened that Series due to “wages negotiations”, where Warner led the player’s voices – and successfully forcing Peever and Sutherland to back down.
Warner WILL have the support of the players.
CA are the problem, and have been for a very long time.
Their interest is not the traditional strength of Australian cricket.
The wages option Warner opposed on behalf of ALL players was confirmation of that.
Then we get to the Schedule including when Shield cricket is played and (particularly) India dictating the Terms and Conditions of visiting Australia (remember no DRS – which is a nonsense only because it is an Umpire tool in the hands of players – and media so they can wet their jocks – and “ball tracking” is rubbish on turf pitches and variable surfaces depending on where the ball lands) to the pitches served up (Paine comments) and selection.
Just for starters.
But it all starts at the top – that is where the problem is.
CA remains inept.
Including in choice of Coach.
Birmingham?
Warner/XXXXXX/Khawaja/Smith/XXXXXX/Head/Carey/Cummins/Starc/XXXXXXX/Hazelwood
And Pattinson for Hazelwood if fit and in form.
Lyon.
1/150.
As always, no variation on a low and slow pitch (why, in Australia?) so no temptation, no guile, nothing above the eye line looking for flight to deceive with drop and drift, no use of the crease back and front to deceive so changing length – and around the wicket.
We need a good leg spinner – but look at Zampa’s Shield record historically and this season – and he is our 20/20 and One Day International player – says something doesn’t it?
20/20 and One Day just does not cut it.
So where is Shield cricket.
In recess for 2 months because of 20/20!!!!!!
Interesting how News Corp photographed the Tuber and family at the classless beach and not in his palatial home nearby.
It’s all about what you are trying to sell and how you go about selling it.
Tuber at home..
Someone remind me of the last Qld PM. Doesn’t ring a bell.
Could someone please do me a favour? Earlier today I saw a report from The Guardian UK, I think it was, about a disinformation campaign that had been run by the British Foreign Office out of Scotland against Jeremy Corbyn. I would really love to read it because I didn’t have time to this morning as I went swimming. As I don’t know how to get it on my phone, I would really appreciate it if someone could track it down for me.
Thank you very much in advance. ~♥~
C@tmomma @ #385 Sunday, December 30th, 2018 – 5:24 pm
I doubt this PR drop will serve Dutton well.
1. His children seemed unhappy about being used as props for their father’s political career.
2. The drive by on Turnbull will bite him on the arse when Turnbull responds.
3. He effectively outed himself as the Bully Boy that abused Julia Banks.
4. He’s highlighted, once again how dysfunctional and toxic the coalition relationships and culture are.
5. He’s flagged he’s after the top job again. (I’m reading he’s told back benchers that only he can save their seats).
Lizzie,
Kevin07 was the last Queensland PM of course!
https://www.facebook.com/groups/mmt75/permalink/2272646796102994/
Elahn
A 15-hour work week by 2030. Is this a fantasy or can we make it happen?
From MMT we know this isn’t a question of money, but a question of real resources. To produce the goods and services we consume, we collectively work 452 million hours per week.
With a 15-hour work week and a Job Guarantee, we could easily reach a participation rate of 75%; that’s 229m hours/week. For the same level of consumption, we’d need a 97% increase in labour productivity over the next 11 years. This seems pretty far fetched.
However, with a 21-hour work week, that’s 321m hours/week and we’d only need a 41% increase in labour productivity. This is more achievable.
What do you think?
Nicholas
I agree with the goal of a shorter full-time working week. I agree with the reasoning about linking the hours reductions to productivity growth.
The first challenge is to enforce the 37.5 full-time working week that currently exists. Many workers are paid for 37.5 hours per week but are expected to work significantly more hours than that. We need to abolish unpaid overtime.
This will require a combination of regulatory enforcement, positive reinforcement for doing the right thing, and cultural change within workplaces and the broader society.
We need workplaces to see that it is unhealthy for workers, families, and the community for people to be working more than 37.5 hours per week.
We need to emphasise quality of work rather than quantity.
We need to emphasise output per hour rather than total number of hours worked.
Even the highest performing people cannot sustain high levels of productivity for more than four hours per day. It makes sense to work towards a society in which four hours of focused, high quality work is a full time working day and four days is the length of the working week.
The second challenge is how to reduce working hours in occupations such as medicine where there are strong professional and cultural rites of passage and concepts of prestige linked to absurdly long working hours.
The third challenge is to get employers to see that it is better to spread the workload among more workers than to squeeze unreasonable amounts from each worker.
The public sector can lead the way.
When a JG and active use of discretionary fiscal policy maintain zero underemployment, zero discouraged job seekers, and 1 to 2 percent frictional unemployment at all times, it will be much harder for private sector employers to be complacent and to indulge their prejudices.
If workers have good options in the public sector, private sector employers will have to improve their performance if they want to attract and retain workers.
I think that the government should encourage workers to report workplace cultures of unpaid overtime. Experts should initially help the employer to comply with the law. Punishment should not be the first response.
If the issues have not been resolved within a reasonable period such as six months, the senior executives should face significant deletions of their personal net worth. For each documented instance of persistent unpaid overtime they should be fined 5 percent of their personal net worth (financial and real wealth combined). I would not fine the firm. I would fine the senior executives personally.
If necessary I would change the Corporations Act to make that lawful.
If we work towards a steady state economy, we could get attain a 15 hour working week quicker than if we continue on the growth-based trajectory. A combination of productivity growth and cuts to unnecessary consumption could get us there. According to Phil Lawn, Australia has already exceeded its maximum sustainable scale of economic activity, let alone its optimal sustainable scale of economic activity. We really ought to be reducing our total consumption of physical resources, not maintaining the current level.
Australia should be going for qualitative improvement, not going for growth. We’ve already grown enough to provision everyone with a good standard of living. Now we need to improve our systems and structures so that everyone actually gets the goods and services they need for a good life.
As a society we need to encourage and support the positive activities that people should be doing in addition to any paid work that they want to do.
Time with family
Nurturing friendships
Leisure
Physical exercise
Mindfulness and spiritual connection
Creative appreciation and expression
Active citizenship
Learning for fun and for the sake of learning
People can and should still be busy if we have a 15 hour full-time working week. People won’t be at a loose end if we are doing it right.
Elahn
I think a reduction in working hours and increase to fair pay should be rolled out over 2 business cycles.
Initially, the JG wage shouldn’t exceed the National Minimum Wage, currently $719.20/week or $18.93/hour. We don’t want to encourage people to quit their current jobs and destroy our productive capacity.
A small decrease in working hours could be introduced with a JG, perhaps 35 hours as suggested by the CofFEE report for Jobs Australia.
In the first year of JG rollout, demand will increase by 2% of GDP ($35b). This demand is latent in our economy, artificially depressed by the use of an unemployment buffer stock. Our economy will require labour to expand and accommodate this latent demand.
As JG workers would be working 3 hours less than non-JG workers, they’d initially be earning less. After 1 year with a JG, our productive capacity will be increasing, to keep pace with demand. It’s the perfect time to standardise the 35-hour work week by increasing the JG hourly rate to 1/35th of the minimum weekly wage. Currently, that’d be $20.55/hour and would boost demand by 2% of GDP.
Non-JG public sector employment can follow suit, reducing to 35 hours/week for the same full-time pay.
As we approach the peak of the business cycle, workers’ bargaining rights increase and they can demand higher pay and/or lower hours.
As LVT, macroprudential regulation and tighter lending standards are phased in, households will deleverage, i.e. pay down debt instead of spending, which slows the business cycle.
“It’s time for Aussies to pay down their debt. We suggest: after basic living expenses, spend half and save or pay off debt with the other half.”
This creates fiscal space for the government to invest in our advanced manufacturing industry, e.g. green energy and battery technology, electric vehicles, electronics, microprocessors, satellites. This not only kicks off the next business cycle but stimulates industries with significant domestic and foreign demand.
This is a good time for the JG and non-JG public sector to move to a 30-hour work week, without any drop in wages.
As the business cycle rises, it’s time for everyone to share in our increased productivity by setting a fair minimum wage. I suggest the JG wage and minimum wage should be 50% of the median weekly gross household income. This way, they’ll automatically keep pace with wage growth, trailing by 1-2 years to allow for statistical and regulatory processes.
Currently, that’d be $808/week or $26.93/hour for a 30-hour week. This would boost demand by 1.4% of GDP if half of the increase is saved or used to pay down debt.
If we are lucky Dutton’s latest stupidity will knock a point or two off the coalition.
lizzie @ #386 Sunday, December 30th, 2018 – 1:30 pm
Will this be another case of the Libs failing to learn from Labor’s mistakes. 🙂
GG, and I’m sure he’ll be questioned at length over these issues at his next press conference, by a media cohort intent in getting to the bottom of it all, without bias, fear or favour.
Now I’m going to have a long chat with my favourite fairy about it all.
Zoomster, you might want to share your thoughts in the Facebook discussion that I linked above. I included a selection of comments from the discussion. It is about reducing the full-time working week.
Here you go c@t,
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/10/foreign-office-investigates-report-state-funded-body-targeted-corbyn
And also too as well:
https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/foreign-office-funds-2m-infowars-13707574
https://outline.com/2SwX8R
GG,
Dutton must think that the electorate have absolutely no recollection of what went on not that long ago and that a little bit of the rewriting of history will see him right.
What I found most telling about the Dutton piece though was his betrayal of his firm belief that, if you get the politics right, it trumps *cough* principle every time, and that that was Turnbull’s biggest failing.
Whereas, I believe that the electorate are now sophisticated enough to see political trickiness when it is served up to them and these days they would prefer their politicians to just be straight with them.
C@t
Fancy me forgetting our Kev.
But at least he had the decency to move into the Lodge.
WeWantPaul @ #391 Sunday, December 30th, 2018 – 5:39 pm
If a politician makes a fool of himself and no one polls it, did it really happen?
Thank you, DanG! What about them apples, eh!?!
Well, for a start, to make a fool of youself, someone has to be listening …