BludgerTrack: 54.3-45.7 to Labor

BludgerTrack ends a year to remember by showing a slight narrowing in the still-yawning two-party gap.

Ipsos and Essential Research closed their accounts for 2018 this week, and their combined effect has been to reduce Labor’s lead to 54.3-45.7 after a blowout to 54.9-45.1 last week. This is good for one Coalition gain on the seat projection, that being in Queensland. Full results through the link below.

We’re unlikely to see any more poll results until mid-January, although Newspoll should be unloading its quarterly state breakdowns in a week or so, and hopefully a few state voting intention results as well. Nonetheless, things should be pretty active around here over the silly season, as there’s a backlog preselection analysis to attend to, and I should finally get time to attend to my long-promised Morrison-era overhaul of BludgerTrack.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,141 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.3-45.7 to Labor”

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  3. “I’ve also read male and conservative.”

    It’s always the conservatives, the ones who bang on about ‘family values’.

  9. Jake TapperVerified account@jaketapper
    12m12 minutes ago
    Breaking: Officials throughout the Trump administration are bracing themselves for the president to make a similar announcement as he did about Syria except this time about US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan — though they caution the president has not yet made a final decision.

  11. In before I read the article

    What’s the bet that Waleed has inserted some insidiously wheaselly line of the “…and labor is barely better” type?

  14. sprocket_ @ #24 Friday, December 21st, 2018 – 8:00 am

    GG

    George Christensen has made multiple visits to the (The?) Phillipines, highlights so far being praising Duterte and marrying a Filipina. He also has had gastric banding surgery in Malaysia.

    Don’t know why he would be cartooned dumping his laptop in the ocean? Maybe the Herald Sun could shed some light?

    Someone has gone to a lot of trouble to put that cartoon clip of big george together.

    No doubt the full story will come out, probably sooner then later….

  15. Right on cue for the Federal election, the African gangs move to Queensland:

    African violence worries police
    CHARLIE PEEL
    Queensland police are increasingly concerned about a spate of African youth crime in Brisbane. (Oz headline)

  18. “Sohar says:
    Friday, December 21, 2018 at 8:51 am
    What’s with the big ‘C’ on Scomo’s baseball-cap? Is it his designation? Captain? C–t?”

    ‘C’ grade Prime Minister perhaps?

  19. Yesterday I installed the latest Windows 10 Insider version.

    These installations are more or less beta testing and come as warts and all. The previous version cleverly knocked out the sound but was otherwise just fine.
    This latest version comes with lots of goodies (most of which I will never use) but the old favourite (for me) Internet Explorer looked a little dodgy – I couldn’t get it to display the Menu Bar for printing, saving etc. It did fix the sound.
    After a lot of stuffing around and a complete computer reload – I have figured out that Microsoft have cleverly had a game of hide the salami and placed the menu items in the contents of the gear wheel icon. Clever devils – playful as ever.

    A good morning to all. My locality had thunder, lightning and rain. Thankfully we escaped the dreadful events that caused havoc elsewhere.

    Now to follow the adventures of Mr. Christenson. What a joy ❗ What is gastric banding, I wonder, is that where one gets to play the drums on ones belly ❓ 😯

  23. The Scotts might be interested in the provision of the Electoral Act

    ELECTORAL ACT 1992 – SECT 285

    Bribery
    (1) A person shall not offer, solicit or accept an electoral bribe.

    Maximum penalty: 50 penalty units, imprisonment for 6 months or both.

    (2) In this section:

    “bribe” does not include a declaration of public policy or a promise of public action.

    “electoral bribe” means a bribe for the purpose of—

    (a) influencing the vote of an elector; or

    (b) influencing the candidature of a person in an election; or

    (c) otherwise influencing the course or result of an election; or

    (d) inducing a person not to apply, or to withdraw an application, under section 192 to be a candidate for a seat in relation to which a casual vacancy has occurred, if that person is an eligible person within the meaning of that section; or

    (e) inducing a person not to apply, or to withdraw an application, to the Court of Disputed Elections under division 16.3 to dispute the validity of an election, if that person is entitled to dispute the validity of the election under section 257.

  24. Last eve’s storm was quite spectacular. Never had a hailstorm that lasted so long — a good 10-15 minutes. I raced out and got a stone that was bigger than a golf ball, but not as big as a cricket ball. MOst smashed on the concrete driveway as they really came down with a lot of force.

    Pleased to say we don’t appear to have had any damage except a few shredded plants.

    #weatheronPB

  25. sprocket,

    To me that is talking about an actual election.

    This is about Party pre-selection which is an entirely different thing. 🙂

  26. Also – first time in my life we had two separate hailstorms in one day. We got a second round about an hour after the first.

  27. Good Morning

    BREAKING: Trump says Defense Secretary James Mattis will be retiring at the end of February and a new chief will be named shortly.

    _________________________________
    I think there are three LNP scandals on the boil today. 🙂

  30. @guytaur…..”I think there are three LNP scandals on the boil today.”……..

    ….and Turnbull is now on the sidelines pissing hmself laughing…..lol…….

  32. @michellegrattan
    If true this is an absolute disgrace – the Liberal party, which likes to talk about “values”, should explain such totally unethical behaviour

    Michelle Grattan on the $350,000 bribe for Craig Kelly’s opponent. I find it amazing the Michelle has just discovered that the Liberal Party might not have any values. She’s been in Canberra since the 70s, so we can’t put it down to inexperience. Perhaps her obsessive hatred of Gillard and the Labor Party distracted Michelle all these years.

  34. frednk @ #46 Friday, December 21st, 2018 – 7:31 am

    The words are one thing the music is even more haunting. “God help me I was only 19”. From the last time the youth took to the streets, the reason why grandma’s and grandpa’s will support their grandkids.

    https://w.soundcloud.com/player/?url=https%3A//api.soundcloud.com/tracks/547544349&color=%23ff5500&auto_play=false&hide_related=false&show_comments=true&show_user=true&show_reposts=false&show_teaser=true

    Thank you. Stirring stuff.

  36. ‘Barney in Go Dau says:
    Friday, December 21, 2018 at 9:18 am

    sprocket,

    To me that is talking about an actual election.

    This is about Party pre-selection which is an entirely different thing. ‘

    I would have thought that ‘influencing the candidature of a person in an election’ covers a pre-selection.
    I don’t know.

  38. ‘Greensborough Growler says:
    Friday, December 21, 2018 at 9:35 am

    BW,

    It was a dark and stormy night………’

    haha

    Jen… that one’s been taken… as has the moon being a ghostly galleon.

  40. When Morrison talks about being a ‘family’ he is taking a very, very broad view.
    It includes anyone who has been to SEA for a shag.

  41. @CillizzaCNN tweets

    “Because you have the right to have a Secretary of Defense whose views are better aligned with yours on these and other subjects, I believe it is right for me to step down from my position.” — Jim Mattis resignation letter to Trump

    _____________________
    Another rat abandoning ship.

  44. “The SMH editorial says that the ALP is succeeding by being boring…”

    This is what happens when people forget what competence looks like.

  45. Boerwar @ #86 Friday, December 21st, 2018 – 5:35 am

    ‘Barney in Go Dau says:
    Friday, December 21, 2018 at 9:18 am

    sprocket,

    To me that is talking about an actual election.

    This is about Party pre-selection which is an entirely different thing. ‘

    I would have thought that ‘influencing the candidature of a person in an election’ covers a pre-selection.
    I don’t know.

    No one is trying to stop him being a candidate at the next election.

    This purely about which candidate has the Liberal Party logo next to their name on the ballot.

  46. #ETTD

    President Trump announced Thursday that Defense Secretary Jim Mattis would leave his position in February, marking the departure of an influential figure who has steered the Trump administration toward foreign policy continuity and restraint.

    Mattis’s departure could add new uncertainty to which course the administration might take on its global challenges, including Iran and North Korea, amid questions about the pending withdrawal of U.S. troops from Syria and a possible drawdown in Afghanistan.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/trump-announces-mattis-will-leave-as-defense-secretary-at-the-end-of-february/2018/12/20/e1a846ee-e147-11e8-ab2c-b31dcd53ca6b_story.html?utm_term=.9ce22ed8b46c

  47. From the New Daily:

    After the trips became the subject of gossip within the Department of Foreign Affairs, a Labor MP is believed to have gone to authorities to tip them off that the matter may need to be investigated.

    The Prime Minister’s Office attempted to discredit the claims, stating that the referral had come from a Labor source and that the AFP had “discredited” the smear and found no case to answer.

    Bill Shorten spreading dirt. He has questions to answer.

    Seriously though, does anybody think Morrison wants to be asked questions about this and the Broad scandal in Parliament?

    March 2.

  48. Gareth

    Angela Merkel – Boring

    Macron – Boring

    Corbyn – Boring

    Scandinavian countries leaders – Boring

    Shorten – Boring

    Jacinda Adern – Boring

    I am sure there are many more.

    May – Enertaining flailing around

    Morrison – Clown Show circus

    Trump – Entertainment President from Reality Television.

    I sense a pattern 🙂

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