BludgerTrack: 54.3-45.7 to Labor

BludgerTrack ends a year to remember by showing a slight narrowing in the still-yawning two-party gap.

Ipsos and Essential Research closed their accounts for 2018 this week, and their combined effect has been to reduce Labor’s lead to 54.3-45.7 after a blowout to 54.9-45.1 last week. This is good for one Coalition gain on the seat projection, that being in Queensland. Full results through the link below.

We’re unlikely to see any more poll results until mid-January, although Newspoll should be unloading its quarterly state breakdowns in a week or so, and hopefully a few state voting intention results as well. Nonetheless, things should be pretty active around here over the silly season, as there’s a backlog preselection analysis to attend to, and I should finally get time to attend to my long-promised Morrison-era overhaul of BludgerTrack.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,141 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.3-45.7 to Labor”

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  1. May is incredibly boring, that’s half the reason she got the job.

    As for Morrison, Yaaaaaaaaaaaaawwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn!!!!!

    And Trump is simply a bore. 🙂

  2. Boring politics exhibit A…Lets look at Climate Change Policy…

    Gillard….scientists say climate change is real (boring)…..economists say carbon price most efficient mechanism (boring)….negotiate legislation through consultation with cross benchers (boring)…
    Abbott… Axe the Tax, Ditch the Witch, Whyalla will be wiped off the map (exciting)

    Great leaders and great management can be boring. The Press Gallery lives for the excitement of day-to-day political fights. There lies the problem.

  6. Mattis is no longer being listened to (if he ever was) by Trump; who always knows best and is the smartest guy in the room always anyway.
    Maybe he doesn’t need a Defence Secretary or CoS- he can be his own Chief of Staff & Defence secretary.

  7. With all the weather goings on (it dropped to about 6°C last night) it is comforting to know that normality resumes in Adelaide for Christmas with a run of days over 35°C. The locals will be happy.

    Although, having recently read about the 9 day blizzard that ended the Scott, Wilson and Birdie Bowers efforts to return from the South Pole, ‘weather’ is a relative thing.

  10. Mavis Smith says: Friday, December 21, 2018 at 10:02 am

    With Defence Secretary Mattis on his way out, Trump will, in typical Mafia manner, only have relatives and yes men/women in his cabinet.

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/pentagon-chief-jim-mattis-quits-citing-policy-differences-with-trump-20181221-p50nmd.html

    ****************************************************************

    Rick Wilson‏Verified account @TheRickWilson

    Donald Trump just lost the most significant, stabilizing, and competent member of his entire administration.

    I’m legitimately frightened for the country.

    John Schindler‏Verified account @20committee

    Jim Mattis has kept the Trump admin from making several truly disastrous errors. Without his stable & firm hand, I fear what Donnie may do, especially as Mueller closes in on him & his family.

    AHEM ===> “Keeping the country’s military leadership in the dark about withdrawing US troops from a war-zone is without precedent and speaks to turmoil and disarray inside the Oval Office, not to mention a complete breakdown of civil-military relations.”

    Johns latest column :

    Trump’s sudden Syria pullout reveals his administration’s chaos – and misguided priorities

    Whatever trust there was between the White House and the Pentagon has vanished

    By shattering his relationship with the top brass over Syria this week, thereby eroding what little trust existed between the White House and the Pentagon, President Trump has done more damage to civil-military relations in Washington, DC, than any commander-in-chief in recent memory. For the United States, this development is more significant than anything that will come of our withdrawal from Syria’s civil war.

    https://spectator.us/trumps-sudden-syria-pullout/

  11. Great leaders and great management can be boring. The Press Gallery lives for the excitement of day-to-day political fights. There lies the problem.

    Very good. There is a serious essay in that tho’. It is the fault of the press? The media companies? The politicians? The consumers of media? Is it a culture wide phenomenon (eg the extremes of reality TV)? Is it media medium specific (is it TV or the internet that is the drug of a nation)?

    Or is it the high sugar, low fibre diet of modern western culture? Hmmmm? Yes? You know it be so!

  12. Did I miss something? Is Trump going to pay for the Wall within the military budget through savings from withdrawing from Syria and Afghanistan?

  13. Steve777 @ #38 Friday, December 21st, 2018 – 8:22 am

    | Re GG @8:17: mentioning McCormack at least suggests that it is a National MP.

    I’ve also read male and conservative.

    Redundant, Steve777 already said “National MP”.

  14. Oh no!!

    Just when things were looking on the up.

    Mitch Marsh still hopeful for Test recall despite run of poor scores

    Australian vice-captain Mitch Marsh expects a nervous four-day wait before he learns his Boxing Day Test fate.

    Despite a run of low scores that continued on Thursday night, there is speculation Marsh could be recalled for the third Test against India.

    Marsh is adamant he can deliver if recalled, saying he feels like he is on the verge of a big score, although the Perth Scorchers captain only made three in the four-wicket loss to the Melbourne Renegades at Docklands Stadium.

    …

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-21/mitch-marsh-hopes-test-recall-bbl-perth-scorchers/10645406

  16. There’s an inordinate amount of interest in George of late. I wonder what he’s been up to(?) – a man who doggedly extolls the virtue of family values.

  20. The Murdoch media, Sky and 2GB, aren’t a separate and distinct political party /parties. As we have seen today they are an integral part of the Coalition.

    And, good get by Michael Koziol, he has broken some good stories this year.

  21. Mattis resignation letter to Trump is sardonic with wtte “You have the right to select a Sec. of Defense whose views align with yours.”

    What a tangle cluster-fornication Trump weaves!

  24. May and Corbyn both deserve to be politically destroyed by their roles to date in Brexit.

    It is the Blairites and the Tories who must be politically destroyed.

  25. Oh no! Just when things were looking on the up.

    Barney, you will notice nobody put their name to that article.
    ABC did something similar when Matthew Wade was pushing for a recall (and was subsequently recalled). In both cases, the only juice in the article was that the player themselves were saying they were ready to play for Australia. Which seems odd that such a thing would be considered newsworthy.

    The ABC is less a source of quality journalistic articles and analysis and more a tool to be used by certain powers.

  28. Prof

    Mattis resignation letter to Trump is sardonic with wtte “You have the right to select a Sec. of Defense whose views align with yours.”

    Indeed. Especially as that line comes straight after the paragraph…
    “My views on treating allies with respect and also being clear-eyed about both malign actors and strategic competitors are strongly held….”

  29. Simon² Katich® @ #123 Friday, December 21st, 2018 – 6:27 am

    Oh no! Just when things were looking on the up.

    Barney, you will notice nobody put their name to that article.
    ABC did something similar when Matthew Wade was pushing for a recall (and was subsequently recalled). In both cases, the only juice in the article was that the player themselves were saying they were ready to play for Australia. Which seems odd that such a thing would be considered newsworthy.

    The ABC is less a source of quality journalistic articles and analysis and more a tool to be used by certain powers.

    I also noted the description of him as “Australian vice-captain.”

    I was always under the impression that the vice-captain was someone in the playing XI. 🙂

  30. phoenixRED:

    [‘I’m legitimately frightened for the country.’]

    Wilson’s right. Trump much prefers those who agree with him. With Mattis’ resignation they’ll be no-one left who’s game enough to call him out. His unilateral decision to withdraw troops from Syria was probably the last straw for Mattis. From a tennis club management committee through to a cabinet, the dynamic is the same: the collective wisdom of the group is nearly always better than that of the person at the top. It’s high time for the GOP to rein in this madman.

  31. I was always under the impression that the vice-captain was someone in the playing XI.

    He was involved strategic conversations with Paine while on the field as a sub during last Test.

  35. Imagine the call to Mitch saying is he in the XI

    “Mitch. Congratulations. Like you, we feel you are on the verge. Ergo, you are in the team.

    Don’t feel nervous. Even if you fail, we are both right about you being on the verge”.

  37. Just like the Bastiaan cabal needs to be expunged from the Victorian Liberals, so must the Marsh cabal be expunged from Australian cricket!

  38. Has Oliver North got out of gaol yet?

    Of course he is out of gaol. Isnt he the President of the NRA and a regular on Fox News?

    The journalist who broke one of the Contra stories is however still dead.

  39. Barney in Go Dau:

    [‘Too far north? ‘]

    Yep, save for the Mad Hatter’s electorate, you can’t go further north in my home state.

  41. C@tmomma @ #135 Friday, December 21st, 2018 – 6:41 am

    Just like the Bastiaan cabal needs to be expunged from the Victorian Liberals, so must the Marsh cabal be expunged from Australian cricket!

    Completely different situations.

    shellbell is spot on with his “on the verge” point.

    The problem is that there are not many others on the verge to offer an alternative.

  45. Mavis Smith says:
    Friday, December 21, 2018 at 10:45 am
    Barney in Go Dau:

    [‘Too far north? ‘]

    Yep, save for the Mad Hatter’s electorate, you can’t go further north in my home state.
    ———————————————
    Nah. Leichhardt goes further North. You can even see PNG from its northernmost Islands.

  48. Pelosi in presser, wtte: “You have some great leaders who have left this administration in dismay, and then you have some others who have left in disgrace. “

    Classic Pelosi archery!

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