The BludgerTrack poll aggregate shifts negligibly in favour of the Coalition, who have picked up one on the seat aggregate in South Australia. I won’t be bothering with the leadership ratings until the new year recess, as some fairly heavy reupholstering is required to integrate Scott Morrison’s data into the code.
Two ReachTEL electorate polls have lately emerged from Victoria, recording swings approaching or exceeding double digits against the Liberals – with the caveat that both appear to have identified the names of the parties rather than the candidates.
• In Corangamite, held for the Liberals by Sarah Henderson on a post-redistribution margin of exactly nothing, a poll for the Geelong Advertiser gives Labor what I calculate to be a lead of 59-41, based on 2016 election preferences. The Advertiser’s report has it at 52.1-47.9, but this credits Labor with no preferences whatsoever from “other/independent”, when they in fact scored slightly over half of them in 2016. After excluding the 4.6% undecided from the poll, the primary votes are Labor 42.8%, Liberal 33.7% and Greens 11.7%. I don’t know exactly when the poll was conducted, but the sample was 856.
• The Herald Sun reported last week that a poll for the CFMEU found Kelly O’Dwyer, who holds Higgins on a post-redistribution margin of 10.3%, trailing Labor by 53-47. Primary votes of Liberal 38.6%, Labor 32.5% and Greens 18.8% are provided, which I presume does not exclude an undecided component.
VP
To be clear to you. I did not use peadophile or terrorist in connection with John Setka and Sally McManus.
That was your comment.
guytaur @ #51 Friday, December 7th, 2018 – 8:15 am
I know.
You quoted some nobody from twitter.
Victoria @ #18 Friday, December 7th, 2018 – 8:23 am
Yes, Huawei, despite making an undertaking to the USA government that they would not do it, sold their technology to Iran.
VP
Um no. I posted the Human Rights about privacy. I posted Apples comment in Engadget and Labor politicians in Computerworld.
I made the personal comment that John Setka and Sally McManus are going to be very happy now that Dutton can monitor their phones.
In none of this did I mention peadophiles or terrorists in connection with those two people. Only you did that
C@tmomma @ #53 Friday, December 7th, 2018 – 6:20 am
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/dec/07/marble-tombstones-at-labor-conference-reminder-of-alps-role-in-offshore-detention
Vogon Poet @ #52 Friday, December 7th, 2018 – 9:17 am
And conflated it with a withdrawn Tweet by Christopher Pyne!
That’s how desperate and delusional some people are getting about this issue.
Dan Gulberry @ #55 Friday, December 7th, 2018 – 9:21 am
Have you had any sleep yet!?!
Cat
Wow so my mentioning that it is now legal for Setka and McManus phones to be monitored is quoting Chis Pynes tweet?
You are getting very hysterical.
GT,
For Dutton to read Setka or McManus messages, they have to be terrorists or paedophiles.
Just because you read a tweet yesterday from a nobody on twitter saying it would be so, doesn’t make it so.
VP
You don’t understand the way privacy abuse works do you?
You have not seen all those comments from Dutton about unions and groups like Getup being thugs and terrorists.
Edit: You have learnt nothing from the actions of the LNP using such laws like with the AFP raid on union offices and making sure the media saw it.
Pegasus @ #57 Friday, December 7th, 2018 – 8:21 am
Hopefully the artist will put them up at the greens conference to remind them of blocking the Malayasia deal.
Morning all, and thanks as always to BK; you do a fantastic job.
This could get interesting…
Good morning all,
Labor has ensured any ” terrorist” event over the summer months cannot be sheeted home to them. You can be absolutely certain if the encryption legislation had not been passed the very same media that is now declaring labor blinked, backed down etc etc would be jumping all over Shorten if such a event did happen.
On the other hand, if there is a death on Nauru or Manus due to a lack of medical care and or support ( hopefully not ) then Morrison may be the one with questions to answer.
I would rather be in the shoes of Shorten than Morrison.
BTW, the upcoming national conference will reaffirm labor will continue offshore processing and turn backs while taking a far more compassionate approach to those on Nauru and Manus. Let Morrison and the Oz squeal all they like. In just a few days time labor will shoot it all down in flames.
Cheers and a great day to all
C@tmomma @ #58 Friday, December 7th, 2018 – 6:23 am
Yes. I don’t have a 9-5 existence. Part of what I do for a living requires me to be awake during part of the night. I break my sleep into 2 shifts of 3- 4 hours each. One in the wee small hours, and another in the afternoon.
Welcome back to the left Guytaur. There is no point in engaging with the stooges. The stooges just ape the party line and their hatred of the Greens stems from their jealousy of Green purity and righteousness. They know the ALP is not a party of the left. The Greens voters and members were formerly the left of the ALP but have decided to no longer deal with right wing ALP ‘liberal lite’ stooges who are more into power/corruption than championing any social democratic ideals.
guytaur, of all the bludgers you would surely be the least likely to be surveilled. No-one would have the steely patience required. Neither bot nor spook could do it. You’re safe, whether encrypted or just plain garbled. You can relax.
Guytaur
It is good that you are comfortable coming out, but I think we all knew 🙂
Dan Gulberry @ #65 Friday, December 7th, 2018 – 9:28 am
Doesn’t that mess with your head!?! Though I guess it’s like baggage handlers at the airport and split shift bus drivers, you get used to it.
The Ecuadoreans are still trying to get shot of Assange. Good luck with that, he’s all care, no responsibility/accountability.
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/12/06/uk/ecuador-julian-assange/index.html?utm_term=link&utm_source=twCNN&utm_medium=social&utm_content=2018-12-06T20%3A14%3A24
guytaur,
Good luck voting for the party that sweeps sexual and physical abuse of it’s members under the carpet.
JW
Yeah yeah make out that my change of vote doesn’t count. Well its Labor’s loss and I am not alone.
You can decry twitter but as we have seen so many here say how smart it is for Labor to bypass the MSM and engage on social media twitter counts.
You can’t have it both ways and its very clear many are changing their vote.
You can dismiss my lone voice but that of Greg Jericho is read by a lot of people and they will be listening to his expertise. I am going by what he has said on twitter as I have not read his Guardian column today
Guytaur, you are naive on this one.
The state of politics at the moment is all about “sending signals”, clumsy “metaphors”, wedges, flag-waving, tactical debating techniques and cheap symbolism.
All some crazy had to do over Christmas was drive an old bomb car up a shopping mall shouting “God is great!” and all political hell would have broken loose. Whether fair or not, Bill Shorten would have been blamed for it. For God’s sake, Morrison has already labelled Shorten as a “Friend Of The Terrorists” for simply criticising the haste of the introduction of the encryption bill.
You know and I know that accusation would be unfair, but while there are voters out there who believe everything they read in the Daily Telegraph, and journalists who are prepared to peddle such tripe for the purposes of clickbait (and not just at News Corp publications either), such a tactic has the potential to get out of hand, adversely.
Labor, I remind you, is in Opposition. They are not the government yet.
In my understanding, the likely outcome of yesterday’s legislation is that precisely nothing at all will happen in the short and medium terms. It’s Christmas, firstly. Srvondly ScoMo is purpirting to direct the world’s largest and oiliest companies to abandon one of the key bases of their combined business plans: secure encryption. This ain’t gonna happen.
And even if it did, a thousand ways around it will be in place almost instantly.
Too many critics of Labor expect the party to sacrifice its chances of regaining government on the altar of spiritual perfection. It’s a very convenient sentiment, but ultimately just ensures that the real enemy continues in office indefinitely.
It looks like BeetRooter is morphing into BeetRorter…
“
Barnaby Joyce, who left his wife after having an affair with a staffer, wants the coalition to overturn a ban on federal MPs hiring family members to work for them.
Former prime minister Tony Abbott in 2013 ruled relatives could no longer work for MPs or senators, in a bid to head off claims of nepotism.
But Mr Joyce says that was a mistake.
“(Your loved one is) probably one of the best persons working for you because she more than anyone understands your diary, understands kids’ birthdays, anniversaries. Understands all the things you’ve got to be a part of if you want to stay married,” he told The Courier-Mail in an interview published on Friday.
@Bushfire Bill 9:12 am
Their is something that can stop some ‘lone wolf’ attacks.
Friends and Families noticing them and reporting them. But that requires trust from the Friends & Families of the authorities.
Speaking of corruption and bribery …. the latest Transparency Project article:
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2018/dec/07/labor-ministers-knew-of-skm-bribery-claims-but-continued-giving-firm-work
Here is how its being reported by the Guardian
Guytaur
Thank goodness team Labor don’t follow the Greens cue. This Hill was not one they should have followed them to die on.
And of course, You are entitled to vote for whomever you wish.
The Greens are, and continue to be, all care and no frickin responsibilty.
A wasted vote in my view
And to boot, dear leader RDN is a real piece of work
C@tmomma @ #69 Friday, December 7th, 2018 – 6:31 am
Not particularly. Even when I was a part of the corporate world and did a 9-5, I very rarely ever had 8 hours of continuous sleep. Also I would feel drowsy during the afternoon anyway. I guess I don’t have what you’d call a normal body clock. It hasn’t affected my physical health either. I had a check up a couple of months ago and came out “at the bottom end of the top category” according to my doctor. So pretty good for someone my age (mid 50’s).
BB
Legislation has been passed. Its legislation that should have been opposed by Labor. It shows Labor is weak and has caved on human rights because its scared of the Terror Terror Terror fear campaign.
It was a wrong move. A sign of weakness as Labor failed to stand up for human rights yet again. A pattern from Labor that makes all the Same Same the Greens do correct.
Party political games more important than human rights. The optics more important than the substance and yes voters see that.
Crikey Worm:
This posted by lynlinking who I know has been a prolific pro Labor person on twitter
PM escapes threat to his control of Parliament as Labor backs down on encryption I don’t bluff with the safety of Australians. I don’t play a game with the safety of Australians Mr Shorten said.”This government went home without doing their job. I won’t
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/pm-escapes-threat-to-his-control-of-parliament-as-labor-backs-down-on-encryption-20181206-p50kqf.html
Note the Labor backs down. Thats caving.
Fair reporting too as Labor voted against its own amendments
Matt @ #2521 Friday, December 7th, 2018 – 2:10 am
People need to get themselves a working knowledge on encryption.
Firstly, the case for where a provider is handling encryption;
Client-to-Server, mostly often serving web pages, storing content, etc (facebook, youtube etc). These providers are quite irrelevant to this legislation. They already get subpoenaed and cooperate in providing whatever data they have. For example: Apple assists with providing suspects iCloud data frequently (hundreds of times per year).
And all that said, any encryption applied manually by the client before uploading a file to something like iCloud, dropbox, this legislation has no effect over or ability to break (mathematical reality).
Now the much vaunted End-to-End Encryption case;
You mentioned the TAN – technical assistance notification. This clause does not apply to E2E services. The provider is not applying the encryption. The users on each endpoint are applying the encryption.
There is NO way for the provider to break this encryption (mathematical reality).
A note on encryption: The very large majority of all encryption techniques are open source, thoroughly tested, transparent and mathematically sound (you can go and read the source code right now if you like).
This is where the TCN – Technical Capability Notice (creating a new feature that achieves the requested function) comes in. This compels a provider to develop a back-door / side-window inside the app, that can spy on incoming messages AFTER they have been de-crypted by the receiver and outgoing messages BEFORE they are encrypted (there is still no way of breaking the encryption in transit). This is how this legislation circumvents the purpose of the encryption. It can not force the encryption to be broken (mathematical reality).
How a TCN is implemented is entirely up to the provider, they would have to meet some requirements set by the authority requesting it. While also not creating a ‘systemic weakness’ in their platform.
Hence my conclusion that the only way this can work is where this spyware update is directed to individual targets via selective app updates (with the help of the app store provider). Any update affecting a broad number of devices of non targets (the general public) would be a systemic weakness.
Another aside; security agencies have myriad ability to just hack the device directly with their troves of security vulnerabilities a la NSA. This would be a much preferred method than requesting a TCN; fast, effective, and gives total control over the device. Gaining access to an associate of the suspect’s device and masquerading as them on one end of the encrypted messaging is also much easier.
The other problems with TCNs is that they would be slow to develop, be fought by the provider and potentially run in to a range of legal issues (although the entire existence of the TCN is to be kept secret). Only to be bound by the permissions sandbox that the app lives inside (restricted from other apps’ content – you COULD run some privilege escalation exploits if they exist to give full device access via the app)
Thus it is hardly efficient,economical or in fact a national security benefit to force TCN’s down app providers’ throats.
Where I do see this being applied is at the operating systems providers (Microsoft, Google, Apple) where this development of the TCN basically only has to happen once. Then the spyware update be pushed to suspects’ devices in a targeted manner giving complete OS level access to the device.
These companies already comply with security agencies along these lines however, so I’m not sure if this legislation adds any value here.
The various tech groups and foundations are against this because it does negatively impact the overall security of the ecosystem. But not anywhere near as much as the current overreaction would have you believe. Fact is, most of these things happen already, the big OS companies already voluntarily provide this level of access. The only thing this legislation seems to achieve is public scrutiny of what are quite standard, albeit secret and arguably unethical, practices.
The issue of rights to privacy etc are a different story, so often overridden by `National Security`
I’m in the latter category! 😆
If I told you that President Trump employs undocumented immigrants, you might say, “That’s impossible. A staunch and principled opponent of illegal immigrants like him would never allow such a thing!” Or, if you actually knew anything about Trump, you might say, “Of course he does.”
Well guess what:
It’s interesting to see the proposition that the regulator will be given the power to control energy prices. I’m no constitutional lawyer, but I do recall that 45 years ago from tomorrow, the people voted on a Whitlam government proposal to give the Commonwealth power over prices and incomes, which was soundly defeated.
So what would be the constitutional basis for now introducing price controls? Can it be done under the corporations power? Or would it depend on it being demonstrated that prices were being kept artificially high by anti-competitive practices?
Oops link:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2018/12/06/president-trump-uses-undocumented-immigrant-labor-is-anyone-surprised/?utm_term=.b93b69394993
BB
Hear hear!
Imagine if Labor followed the Greens tactics. They may garner 10% of the vote.
How wonderment.
iirc Katharine Murphy opined wtte if one was a cynic, Labor was going to cave in on the AA bill regardless and did so when its decision could not be covered by the 6pm news.
Shorten again defending his cave in on encryption laws in presser now
Zeh – most enlightening, thank you.
“Drama Queens here, imagining that their subversive anti-government activities will now be intercepted by goose-stepping Nazi thugs because encryption is a thing of the past, really need to get out in the fresh air.”
This type of stuff is (a) disrespectful to the legitimate concerns of many intelligent and well-informed people, and (b) wrong and stupid.
How anyone in the year 2018 with Russian election hacking, widespread online fraud, Facebook, Wikileaks etc manipulating political outcomes, local councils misusing the metadata laws we were told were purely for catching terrorists, etc etc can be so silly as to think that breaking encryption is a good idea baffles me. And then add to that the well established track record of our government and our ‘five eyes’ allies governments abusing surveillance powers almost by default.
My high level take is that those who think this is no problem are both technically illiterate and ignorant of modern history in anywhere other than Australia.
People keep saying it’s like giving the police a spare key to your house. It’s more like having a working front door, but then leaving the side door closed on a latch only.
More generally, Labor diehards need to get their heads out of their arses and realise that while Bill Shorten may have done the right thing for himself tactically yesterday, that does not equate to these laws being a good idea or their passage being a good thing for the country. Hell, Labor itself passed the laws while saying that they are a bad idea and at minimum need radical amendments. So just be big enough to accept that your favourite party has openly, and for purely political reasons, passed bad laws in order to avoid being blamed for terrorism rather than trying to pretend those laws are a good idea.
Frankly, what Crikey and The Guardian claim to be correct thinking is of extremely little persuasive value to me. Quote them all you like, but their ideas on just about any topic are disposable.
The basic position is that if a terrorist attack occurs between now and when Labor, as a government, has a chance to amend legislation, then the Coalition owns it.
ScoMo has everything he says he needs to stop attacks. I wish him the best of luck.
a11
You should listen to Labor MP’s and Apple not Zeh.
They knew what they were talking about with the fact encryption is necessary for a functioning society in today’s digital world.
Labor said it was rushed legislation but voted for it anyway just to avoid the look of a fear campaign run by the LNP
Bushfire Bill @ #73 Friday, December 7th, 2018 – 8:35 am
Sorry BB but!!!
The problem with that pragmatic approach is that it is EXACTLY the approach taken in Germany between the wars when the Social democrats capitulated often, accusing the Communists of being too ideological etc. The communists were the FIRST to be locked up, well ahead of the Jews or Romani and light years ahead of the social democrats. But eventually all were locked up, murdered or “persuaded” to comply.
Because these powers can be SO badly misused and in fact have been i think those who assume it cannot happen here are fooling themselves. just think about the number of “deaths by policewoman” we now have. if you seriously believe that police and security forces will NOT misuse power I have a bridge or three to sell you.
Many of us still think we are living in the “benign 70s” where obvious invasions of privacy or breaches of civil liberties did not happen. They DID happen of course including to me when i personally entertained and trusted members of the Defence security force and probably (less certain) had Foreign Office spies at my wedding. However back then they had to keep a lid on obvious spying and the risk of severe breaches was lessened (the David Eastwood case however was possibly a stitch up by police) and the Hilton bombing was probably a false flag effort to allow the introduction of draconian surveillance powers.
But NOW thanks to us all giving the local copper the keys to our back doors we are going to have to trust the bobby, his girl/boyfriend, his old school mates or the pay master if he receives a few brown paper bags (or bit coins these days)
Does this sound correct?
The Australian Government’s currency, as the name implies, comes from the Australian Government.
It doesn’t come from the private sector. It is not a creature of commerce.
A currency is spent into existence continuously by a currency-issuing government.
If the currency issuing government did not spend its currency continuously, the private sector would not have enough money to meet its tax obligations and satisfy its desires to spend, save, and work.
Money is the currency issuer’s tax credit. Money is a voucher or token that the government is creating all the time by typing numbers into spreadsheets at the central bank. The private sector needs to get its hands on the vouchers or tokens in order to pay taxes.
The Australian Government’s currency is the Australian Government’s liabilities or IOUs.
Demand deposits at commercial banks are the commercial banks’ liabilities or IOUs. They are called demand deposits because your bank promises to convert them on demand at par (that is, at a one to one ratio) into the government’s currency. That is what happens when you withdraw banknotes from a bank or from an ATM, and it’s what happens when you make a payment to the Australian Government, and it’s what happens when you transfer funds to someone who banks with a different commercial bank. In the last case, your demand deposit gets written down, your commercial bank’s reserves of the government’s currency get written down by the same amount, the recipient’s commercial bank has their reserve account written up, and then finally the recipient has their demand deposit written up. That is how an interbank transfer takes place.
Trump’s new AG candidate is arguably the best he could get to put their hand up to serve in his Administration, but the Senate should make it a condition of his confirmation that he recuses himself from the Mueller investigation.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2018/12/06/raising-bar-what-do-about-doj/?utm_term=.2f966ffc7a1c
Asher Wolf tweets
As a dev or software engineer, if you fulfil your legal duty under the #aaBill you may be helping to kill someone. https://twitter.com/asher_wolf/status/1070676792950710275
The #aaBill explicitly states if a country is seeking the death penalty, Australia may assist by authorising assistance in relation to data held in computers https://twitter.com/Asher_Wolf/status/1070676792950710275/photo/1
This is what Labor waved through
@guytaur
“They knew what they were talking about with the fact encryption is necessary for a functioning society in today’s digital world.”
Where have I denied that? I literally deal with this on a daily basis.
How many programs have you written? How business systems or payment gateways do you manage?
This legislation really isn’t even about encryption.
It about compelling providers to develop means to assist security agencies in gaining access of security targets’ devices. Encryption or not.
Bushfire Bill @ #92 Friday, December 7th, 2018 – 8:47 am
BB
Why do you think Labor will EVER amend the legislation?
You are deluding yourself. It will NEVER happen unless there is significant international pressure, which is unlikely. Look BB while I do not let it influence my opinion too much, Bill Shorten is a USA CIA/NSA approved candidate for PM. He will, like 95% of Australian politicians do as he is told.
If this legislation is ever changed (in the first 6 years of an ALP government) to remove the major problems i will eat a hat. Unless of course there is a major shift in the Senate and they are forced to but not likely.
PB,
I didn’t say anywhere that the laws were a good idea.
What I did say was that if you are going to lose a fight, then it’s unwise to keep on fighting.
If you’re happy for a Christmas terrorist attack by a random lone crazy to completely derail Labor’s efforts across an immense front of policy – no matter how unfair such an eventuality might be – then stay pure, keep criticising and cast a de facto vote for Scott Morrison.
You speak about “politics” as if it’s some kind of dirty endeavour. But that’s the game they’re all in. You have to vote for a politician eventually.
For myself, I’d rather vote for one who, on balance, gave my country and myself the best chance overall for a brighter future.