Victorian election minus three days

In the absence of new polls, we can only guess at the impact of a news agenda dominated by terrorism – although betting markets are favouring Labor more strongly than ever.

The Victorian election campaign continues to chug along poll-lessly. There hasn’t been a single statewide poll since the Newspoll at the start of the campaign, and all we’ve had from the media was last week’s modestly sampled YouGov Galaxy seat polls for the Herald Sun. Roy Morgan has had some qualitative material based on 626 SMS surveys last Tuesday and Wednesday, of which you can make what you will. Not much, would be my recommendation.

The election campaign, narrowly defined, has also been battling for space with terrorism in the news media. Presumably this is bad news for Labor, but punters seem to have other ideas: Ladbrokes has had Labor in from $1.18 to $1.14 over the past few days, with the Coalition out from $4.33 to $5. Labor’s odds have shortened in a number of Liberal-held seats, with nothing or next-to-nothing separating the parties in Bass, South Barwon and Ripon. Conversely, Ladbrokes now rates the Greens as favourites to gain Richmond, and is suddenly offering $4 on an independent to win the Labor seat of Altona – although neither of the two relevant candidates (Tony Hooper, a Wyndham councillor, and Maria Aylward, sister of a murder victim running on a law-and-order ticket) has attracted much media attention.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

144 comments on “Victorian election minus three days”

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  6. As a Liberal Leaning South Australian I can not see from here that the Liberal/National party in Victoria can make some gains I am a Keen Gambler and have been Putting my Money on Labor Winning Overall but also there are some great odds on Individual Seats especially in the Sand Belt where they Hold their Seats Put some on Labor at $5.00 in Prahan a few weeks back now $3.00 Both Federal Issues and from here I think there is not too many gripes with Andrews so think the Pendulum will swing to Labor by 2-3% Hope I am right for my Bank Balance

  7. Both Labor and the Greens are robo polling Brunswick heavily. You can tell because the both select themselves as option 1.

    Must be close, though not sure how it helps them this late.

  8. Was on an early voting booth today, a lot of first time voters, more than i remember previously.

    I wonder if young people are more aware of the importance of registering to vote early from the Marriage Equality vote.

  9. Think Labor can win Ripon, South Barwon, Bass and will not be surprised a few seats in the Eastern Suburbs but not sure which ones Also they will not lose Richmond to the Greens the Fact the Liberal Party is not Standing helps Labor by Increasing their Vote Think this will be a bad election for the Greens but a Good one for Labor and the Independent Candidates both in Labor and Coalition Seats

  11. Like I said zenith I am a Liberal Voter so that does not mean good English Skills people do not have to be put into categories. Some of the lowest paid vote for the Coalition especially the National Party. Are you happy zenith I put in some full stops ?

  12. We’ve got more to worry about than punctuation, so maybe we leave that topic alone.

    In Franga, the crowd is assembling for the Head2Head.

    Out front are a bunch of lobsters and a Lamb (for the local copper and Frankston Lib candidate). The lamb actually looks a bit disturbing, I don’t think that’s the look they were going for.

  14. Lamb explains how the new coal powered station will be built to David Speers (honestly, he is trying to put comedians out of a job)

    Speers: “So the government, the taxpayer, would fund this?

    Lamb: “No no, it’s private industry

    S: “But they can do that already

    L: “Well they haven’t, they haven’t. The Coalition government will allow them to do it.

    S: “But with their own money.

    L: “Yes.”

    S: “They’re allowed to do that now.”

    L: “But they’re not, though, are they?”

    S: “Why not?”

    L: “Well, I don’t know.”

    S: “So hang on, I’m just confused. What changes?”

    L: “What changes is we will tender to get the lowest base power we can get to get a power station build.”

    S: “So sorry, tender to purchase the power itself?”

    L: “No to build the power station.”

    S: “But you’re not building it.”

    L: “No the private sector will.”

    S: “Ok, so. But the private sector can go and build a power station today.”

    L: “But they haven’t though, have they? They haven’t been allowed to under this government.”

    S: “I’m a little confused.”

    So are we, David, and so is Lamb

  17. it is hard to see Bass going to Labor.

    I fear there is a slight chance the libs might pick up cranbourne, carrum and less likely bentleigh or frankston. it depends on how effective the african gangs and law and order scare campaigns have been. I expect some bombshells in the murdoch media over the next 2 days.

    what odds can you get for a hung parliament?

  19. “Sustainable future
    what odds can you get for a hung parliament?”

    Ladbrokes, for example, is offering 1.38 for majority government and 2.85 for a hung parliament.

  20. Strangest campaign I can recall.
    .Bucketloads of cash. Open bribes. The word ‘ vision’ is unspoken. No pressure from the lazy media on costings. The ads are crap. And a huge number have already voted even before this last week began.
    Yes, standby for a Hun bombshell, and a push polling number that predicts some strange movement in voting intention.
    I doubt Anthony Green will be able to call it Saturday night.

  21. @sustainable

    I reckon it’s about equal chance of Bass going Labor as it is being an easy Lib retain, simply because there is no data on how the large number of new residents of the Pakenham area will vote. Really we’re just guessing there.

  22. It’s clear from the last two Qld and the last federal elections that the influence of the Murdoch tabloids is well on the wane. If those papers were to be believed, it’d be wall to wall Lib/Nat with large majorities.

    Vic looks to continue that trend.

  23. Prepoll again today. My view no move to change government. At least not in this labor seat. View seems to be the libs with their decision to cancel the RET and even the move to expel Turnbull not going down well with vic moderates

  25. Frankston leaders’ debate doesn’t tell us anything we don’t already know.

    Both sides are promising to match cash splashes.

    Guy admits that he has no interest in actually reducing crime, just in locking people up. I tend to agree with the Reasonable Sex Partei’s line last week that the conservative attitude here is like telling you to buy bigger clothes and thereby claiming to have solved your obesity problem.

    Guy also has demonstrated a very loose understanding of how bail laws work, for example that committing a driving offence while Muslim doesn’t change said laws.

    Libs will replace safe schools with another of basically the same thing, implying there’s not actually anything wrong with what’s already there. But maybe will placate old lady who is scared of transgender kids existing.

    Oh, and Lamb has no idea what any of their policy details are, but maybe we shouldn’t expect too much if the main (or only) reason he got the job was because a cop looks good in a Laura Norder campaign?

  26. I don’t expect a hung parliament, but 2.85 seems to underestimate the chance of it. I remember looking at these a while ago and thinking the betting markets seemed to be overestimating the chances of a hung parliament in NSW, and underestimating the chances in Victoria.

    Following the ‘debate’ on The Guardian. Think it is reinforcing the perceptions of both leaders, so unlikely to shift the dial (especially as so few Victorians will see it anyway)

    Sure to be spun by late night Sky crew as a magnificent triumph for Guy!

    billie, if you are watching later after the debate you may experience symptoms such as nausea and revulsion.

  27. Oh – last minute point of interest.

    Guy doesn’t seem to understand the significance of prisons being full of mentally ill people, and says it’s “no excuse”.

    He really has no clue. Mental health stigma is an extremely personal issue for me – I’ve had a family member narrowly avoid prison multiple times for stupid things he’s done either when the mental health people have lost track of his meds and he has gone off the deep end, or when sh*t’s gotten out of control in a psych ward. The mental health system has never recovered from Kennett hacking at it, they try hard but the whole system is drastically underresourced. But the attitude perpetuated by people like Guy implying it’s your own fault and you should just stop being crazy is extremely detrimental. You wouldn’t tell cancer patients to just get over it and quit clogging the hospital.

  28. I thought Andrews could have delivered a killer blow by simply asking the question: “why would anybody believe a liberal government is going to invest in schools, hospitals, public transport, metal health and regional Victoria when every time we have had a liberal government in the past 20 years they have cut, and cut and cut services and investment in the future?” and said “Does your party’s leaders and the party-room agree with all this spending? They usually want to cut services to the bone. Is the support unanimous or are we going to see yet another liberal premier and leader knifed half way through their term?”

    He also should have tried harder to link Guy to the disaster of the federal libs and pointed out that Guy has no greenhouse policies other then to rip up renewable energy targets.

    He also should have said to Guy – ‘How are you going to pay for all of this?’ and the use the answer to make the point that the Vic economy and budget is doing very nicely under Labor.

    I though Andrews won in a canter, but sky’s cabal of RWNJs (there is not a single person to the left of Andrew Bolt on Paul Murray) and other murdoch media are calling it close and implying a draw or the Premier ‘leaving questions to be answered’ and ‘receiving a negative reaction from the room’. There is no pretence of impartiality. Labor should not give sky the time of day.

    Guy looked sweaty and flustered a lot of the time and looked like someone wanting to be primary school captain and promising everything but not being very convincing.

  30. @sustainable – to be fair, the Labor attack ads on now are taking that exact line: why would a voter not expect the Libs to slash health/transport/education funding?

    You’re right about the RET and any meaningful emissions policy though – surely Guy pandering to the climate deniers is shooting himself in the foot for the sake of maybe a couple of votes in Morwell. You’d think Andrews would have pushed that harder.

    Gawd, if Sky are calling it a draw, then that implies Andrews must have walloped him. If it had actually been close, they’d be trumpeting it as a Guy win.

    Unless… granted, the Libs seem to have come up with a new strategy based on saying they’re the underdogs. They tried it in Wentworth – of course, there it turned out they were right, but I got the impression from SloMo’s rambling bluster afterwards that he wasn’t expecting to actually lose.

  34. Whatever happened to leaders being forced to cost and explain how they are going to pay for their promises?

    Guys promise to refuse bail for traffic sentences and build more remands centres would be a particular cost concern.

    He also doesn’t seem to understand the effect mental illness and drug dependency has on prison populations. He really sounds like our version of Donald Trump.

  35. In relation to the next Victorian state Redistribution, there will be 3 to 4 new seats created north of the Yarra river, one in the western suburbs, one in the north and the others depending on circumstances

    I agree that Polworth will move east in Geelong, but I don’t agree with Tom the first and only that some of Polworth will go to south west coast

    Tradionally the VEC start with drawing 8 seats, Mildura, South west Coast, Benambra and Gippy East in the country, Richmond, Melbourne, Albert Park and Prahran in the city

    Looking at the current enrolment, Mildura is under quota by 2200 electors and can either move east or south. My guess is south and Lowan which Starts 5000 electors under quota

    If this is the case South West Coast will move east as will Polworth

    The end result is that Western Victoria will lose voters to Northern Victoria and part of the Melton seat to Metro West Province

  37. “Whatever happened to leaders being forced to cost and explain how they are going to pay for their promises?”

    Tony Abbott and absolutely useless sh1thouse media happened to it.

    Anyway it only ever applied to actual good useful govt spending as a way to limiting it, all that money wasted on stupid useless defence projects, and our pathetic terrified surrender to the right wing terrorism scares were always unfunded, like is that insane and criminal waste of money on Manus and Nauru.

  38. One thing I cannot fathom is why Guy hasn’t been pushed on his support from the SIFA gun lobby.

    Why hasn’t he been asked what deals he’s done in return for their hugely expensive campaign?

  39. https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/11/21/victorian-election-minus-three-days/comment-page-3/#comment-3007456

    If they are starting with Albert Park, then they would also start with Williamstown.

    When I said “Polwarth can give population to South-West Coast and/or Ripon” I clearly was indicating that South-West Coast can (on average) move East and was clearly not suggesting South-West Coast moving (on averadge) West.

    I suspect that additional population for Lowan will largely come from Ripon and the additional population from Ripon will come from Wendouree and Buninyong, given that a large part of the population growth in Western Victoria is in Melton, which may well loose Bacchus Marsh to Buninyong.

    If Bracks & Co had not stuck the size of the State Parliament in near stone with a referendum requirement to change it, it would probably be time to think about adding another region (unless the Coalition had done so before the previous redistribution, probably with mainly the Nationals pushing it, to make the regional part of the previous redistribution less drastic).

  40. There are only 2 seats with major growth in Western Victoria, South Barwon and Melton

    While I don’t know the forecast growth rates for each district or the province overall, I think part of Bacchus Marsh ( north of the highway) will go to Bunninyong

    Western Victoria Province will have to loose electors as its growth rate is too big

    Therefore Mildura ( Victoria North Province) will move into part of Lowan and Melton will loose part of the township to the (Western Metro Province)

    Overall I expect Lowan to move into Polworth and South West Coast and they will both move east as a result

    Ripon will move into Ballarat pushing both Ballarat seats east

    I expect Lara and Geelong to have no boundary change, with Torquey moving out of South Barwon into Polworth

    The flow on to this will be felt in Northern Victoria with no change to the Swan Hill based seat, Benambra to loose Rutherglen to the Wangarratta based seat, Sheparton to shrink with re-adjustments down the Hume until Yan Yean

    Finally Yan Yean district to loose around 12000 voters into Metro North Province

    However it is possible that the province of Eastern Metro could pick up 3 northern suburbs based seats as it is already one seat below quota and changes elsewhere will require changes in this province or Metro North

  42. I’d expect that Ripon would actually be a likely prospect for abolition; the Victorian electoral commissioners are more willing than their federal counterparts to abolish a seat and create a new one somewhere else, and Ripon (like Eildon) is a bit of an odds-and-ends seat. With most rural seats needing to grow to get to quota, I could imagine that if that happened, Lowan might be reshaped to lose Hamilton to South-West Coast and some of its northern territory to Mildura, but expanding east to pick up Ararat and Stawell, with Buninyong reoriented to become a Ballarat-and-west rather than Ballarat-and-east seat. (One of the complications here is that Ballarat and Bendigo are both big enough for about 1 1/2 seats, and I doubt very much if either would be split more than two ways).

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