The Victorian election campaign continues to chug along poll-lessly. There hasn’t been a single statewide poll since the Newspoll at the start of the campaign, and all we’ve had from the media was last week’s modestly sampled YouGov Galaxy seat polls for the Herald Sun. Roy Morgan has had some qualitative material based on 626 SMS surveys last Tuesday and Wednesday, of which you can make what you will. Not much, would be my recommendation.
The election campaign, narrowly defined, has also been battling for space with terrorism in the news media. Presumably this is bad news for Labor, but punters seem to have other ideas: Ladbrokes has had Labor in from $1.18 to $1.14 over the past few days, with the Coalition out from $4.33 to $5. Labor’s odds have shortened in a number of Liberal-held seats, with nothing or next-to-nothing separating the parties in Bass, South Barwon and Ripon. Conversely, Ladbrokes now rates the Greens as favourites to gain Richmond, and is suddenly offering $4 on an independent to win the Labor seat of Altona – although neither of the two relevant candidates (Tony Hooper, a Wyndham councillor, and Maria Aylward, sister of a murder victim running on a law-and-order ticket) has attracted much media attention.
The Liberal candidate in Brunswick was one of the state campaign team. So the answer is Yes it was a very last minute decision to run there.
The reason that bookmakers have the odds so heavily in favour of the ALP is because far more people have put money on them. Are they all doing it make a statement? No. The majority of the money is there to make money. The punters aren’t stupid.
If you really think the Liberals are going to win, get your money on because 6 to 1 in two horse race is probably the best you ever going to see.
@Sustainable
“If turnbull and son get a liberal democrat party”
Sure, but that name’s already taken, by a group who are very much not Turnbullians. 😉
Maybe they should it the “Australian Democrats” instead.
Expat @ #49 Wednesday, November 21st, 2018 – 1:01 pm
I remember the candidate Ingram defeated was David treasure and was often disparaged as “Hidden Treasure’ prior to the election because locals never saw or heard from him.
After the election his nickname changed to “Buried Treasure”.
Expat
I think Craig Ingram must hold some sort of record – didn’t he play in a football premiership for his local team while he was an MP?
@GG
Yep. But I will make no further comment on that, as the Treasures are friends with some of my extended family members 😉
Peter Ryan was also nicknamed “Piggy” by the locals, but picking on someone for their appearance is mean and I certainly wouldn’t condone that. Then one of the other Nats used to tell people about seeing UFOs. Never made it into the news, but everyone down there had heard him tell the stories. Fun times growing up in country towns where everyone’s in everyone else’s business!
Craig Ingram had a few aces up his sleeve – people couldn’t always specify what his policies were, but they respected that he used to fly back in to play footy with Buchan (ODFL clubs often struggle for numbers) and things like that.
@Rocket
Now you’re pushing my memory. Not sure about a premiership, but I remember him playing still.
EDIT: I think you might be right – Buchan were ODFL premiers in 2004-5, when he was playing with them. Google turned this up also: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YJWGtR1_C-A
My prediction is for a small swing to Labor (maybe 1 to 2 percent) and a very static result in terms of seats.
The most likely change would be Prahran going from Greens to Labor, and the next most likely would be Brunswick going the other way. Other than that, it’s a struggle to find any high probabilities of change.
The second-term surge should protect the Liberals in Ripon, Morewell is one that Labor always seems to threaten but (almost) never take, and the other coalition seats are all on about 3+ percent. And if there really is a pro-Labor swing, it’s unlikely any of their seats will fall against the flow.
So a Labor majority of about what they have now, maybe one or two more if they’re lucky.
Huge growth in S Barwon and Bass makes the margins less useful as a guide.
@Ante
Morwell was until fairly recently a safe Labor seat – they held it for almost 4 decades straight! Even through the Kennett landslides of the early 1990s it stayed red. It’s only been a Nat seat since 2006 (and Northe as sitting member for that whole 12 year period).
But I agree with your assessment that it isn’t a likely Labor gain. Even with Rick Muir’s preferences.
“You’re sounding like a broken record Roger. I think your anti-Greens views are now well established.”
Thanks Zenith
But I’ll continue to respond to other broken records as I see fit
Expat
I had great respect for Craig and also Russell Savage who won the similarly safe National seat of Mildura.
They copped a lot of flack for putting Labor into power but they ultimately put the real interests of their communities above all else , even their own political survival.
Rocket
They copped flak, but Ingram still got returned with an increased margin next time round!
I might note actually – the Nats seemed to have learnt a bit from that saga. Their current member Tim Bull is much more of an Ingram type (bit younger, footy/cricket etc, “normal blokey”) than the old guard Nats such as the Ryans, McGaurans, Treasures etc. (stuffy old fart wealthy landowners).
Expat,
You’re right. I was mixing Morwell up with… can’t remember. Some other seat, anyway, that I’m too lazy to look up.
Cranbourne seat:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/21/will-the-crime-focused-liberal-unseat-labor-in-cranbourne
@Peg
I read that article just before too, and it made me increasingly confident that Labor will hold Cranny – what I find interesting is that the article itself is playing the 50/50 middle ground game, but if you click on the smiley/frowny mini interviews, they’re *all* voting Labor.
Cranbourne, Bass and Sth Barwon all have the same variable – what kind of demographic the new population growth are. Sth Barwon could be either way (Torquay could have rich Lib-voting retirees or younger Lab or Green-voting surfies and hippies), and Bass and Cranbourne you’re not sure if it’s Cubs (probably Lib, but not 100%) or migrants (probably Lab, but not 100%).
In my opinion, Cranbourne is more of a seat to watch than the sandbelt seats mostly because the Liberals’ campaign is likely to resonate better there than in the bayside areas.
As others have mentioned, an almost exclusively law & order obsessed campaign based on stoking fears doesn’t really work when it’s not the “lived reality”. If people have never felt unsafe in their homes or walking around their neighbourhoods – which is likely the case for the vast majority of voters in seats like Bentleigh & Mordialloc – a scare campaign just won’t work, but Cranbourne’s history & reputation as one of Melbourne’s higher crime areas could play to the Liberals’ advantage, as would its greater distance from the progressive social attitudes of inner Melbourne.
South Barwon growth is more Armstrong Creek than Troquay.
The Liberal campaign has not resonated anywhere.
The only poll showed Labor 54/46 in front. I said at the time that was about right and nothing that has happened since would alter that perception.
Today we’ve had Guy announce the closure of the Safe Injecting Rooms in Richmond and the junking of the RET within 100 days. This is straight out panic and is designed solely to appeal to the conservative base of the Liberal Party and try and save the furniture.
As the most likely outcome post Saturday is Labor with an increased majority, why would Cranbourne voters chance being marginalised from the infrastructure spend that Labor has in store by electing a Lib? Self interest would tell you that having a seat at the table would put their area in a far better position than supporting a novice that has no clout.
B.S. Fairman
I’m not familiar with the area – what kind of demographic of new resident is Armstrong Creek attracting?
Daniel Andrews Email:
We’re 3 days out from the Victorian election – and the Liberals and their friends in the conservative media have just ramped up their fear campaign.
Backed by Scott Morrison and Peter Dutton, they’re pushing fear and pedalling hatred.
Their corporate-funded hate campaign is gathering steam and everything Labor in Victoria has achieved is at stake.
We need to counter this campaign, and boost our positive message focussed on delivering the services working people rely on.
So anyone supporting liberals and Their migrantion numbers isn’t a Labor Member.
Junking the RET is electoral poison.
Adios Guy.
Regarding the independents elected in 1999, Kennett reaped what he sowed.
When Russell Savage was the sole independent after 1996, Kennett treated him with disdain. As the “senior”of the three 1999 independents, he was influential in persuading them to back Bracks, although Susan Davies had been an ALP candidate in 1996. Her success as an independent at the 1997 by-election was an indicator of things to come two years later.
Expat @ 2:55 pm
what kind of demographic of new resident is Armstrong Creek attracting?
Armstrong Creek is a more-or-less standard large suburban development, such as can be found on the outskirts of Melbourne, at places like Wyndham Vale and Cranbourne. The demographic of the residents is similar.
And, no doubt, once again on my morning exercise trail I will pass the old men with their protest material outside the Medical Suite in East Melbourne.
Not having to pass them has been a joy!!
Give the Ukrainian hit man a big, big miss.
Please!!!
If he wants a totalitarian State he should go back to where he same from with his neo-conservative and regressive opinions.
”
jc says:
Wednesday, November 21, 2018 at 9:24 am
Ven – There was increased ‘chatter’ from the suspects following the recent Bourke St incident. They will have had a ‘line’ which was crossed, likely the discussion moving from ‘we should buy a weapon’, to ‘let’s find someone who can sell us a weapon’. Things can obviously move quickly at that stage so the AFP and Victoria Police have to make a call. Not one you’d want to get wrong…
”
jc, a couple of things
1. You posted – There was increased ‘chatter’ from the suspects following the recent Bourke St incident
My query – Can you please point me to the news report where Dutton or the police (AFP or Vic ) mentioned there was a ‘chatter’ let alone discussion moving from ‘we should buy a weapon’, to ‘let’s find someone who can sell us a weapon’. What I heard is that Dutton accused VIC Attorney General of lying that he did not know Friday’s terrorist passport was cancelled.
2. You posted: Things can obviously move quickly at that stage so the AFP and Victoria Police have to make a call. Not one you’d want to get wrong…
My Query – How do you know things were moving faster at that stage?
Also, Dutton wanted ‘Encryption’ legislation to be passed in the next parliamentary sitting so that he can make country safe & he implied that ALP was interested in doing so. Can Mr. Dutton or police guarantee that I or any other Australian will not be killed by a Terrorist if Encryption legislation is passed?
3. Correct me if I am wrong there are 3 terror related attacks happened in Australia. 2 in Sydney (Lindt cafe attack (2 people killed) & Parramatta police HQ attack ( 1 person killed) and both were Gun attacks). LNP was in power when they happened. 1 happened in Melbourne (knife attack where 1 person was killed). ALP is in power in Melbourne attack. What can we conclude from above attacks
a) All are lone wolf attacks.
b) Terror attacks can happen under either LNP or ALP government.
c) Police kept us safe from terror attacks by multiple terrorists
Armstrong Creek is in the southern suburbs of Geelong. I am predicting it looks like Grovedale when it comes to voting which is a more ALP than Highton which is the more Liberal area of the seat. Troquay is now an odd mix of retirees and commuters from Geelong and Melbourne.
”
Ante Meridian says:
Wednesday, November 21, 2018 at 9:20 am
Steve,
“How accurate are the betting markets in predicting election outcomes!?”
Not very. Kevin Bonham has a few posts that are scathing of anyone who uses betting markets as election predictors. You can find them on his blog (sorry, but I’m too lazy to find them myself). The nadir was the S.A. election before last when the Liberals lost after being at $1.01.
Pegasus
”
AM, Betting markets are much more accurate than Single Seat polling. At least in betting people are putting money to win where as Single seat polling is totally unreliable. Can somebody provide betting on each of the House of Reps seats. We will get a true inclination which party is close to winning the state election.
”
Toby Esterhase says:
Wednesday, November 21, 2018 at 11:11 am
The Liberals have just launched a website called – I kid you not: http://www.danielandrews.sucks. There’s even a press release about it on Matthew Guy’s website!
You don’t try something like that unless you’re desperate.
Also, I wonder if they’ve become shitscared about Caulfield: Guy says he’ll move Victoria’s tourism and trade office in Israel from Tel Aviv – where most of that tourism and trade would come from – to Jerusalem!
”
Toby posted -I wonder if they’ve become shit scared about Caulfield
My query – Does Caulfield have substantial Jewish population or Evangelical population?
Can somebody give pre-poll numbers of VIC state election?
https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/11/21/victorian-election-minus-three-days/comment-page-2/#comment-3007147
Looking at comparative enrolments and exiting electoral boundaries, Torquay is likely to be moved into Polwarth at the next redistribution (due in 2021, will happen then unless there is an early election before it does).
Ven – Over 35% Jewish.
Ven
Caulfield is the centre of Melbourne’s Jewish community.
It’s the same tactic they tried in Wentworth, for obstensibly the same reason.
Tom – There will be movement in the area at redistribution. But it is too early tell which way and what gets moved.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/11/21/victorian-election-minus-three-days/comment-page-2/#comment-3007154
Caulfield does have a significant proportion Jewish People.
Caulfield is not known for having a large population of Evangelical Christian People, they are geberally considered to tend to live further from the centre of Melbourne.
”
B. S. Fairman says:
Wednesday, November 21, 2018 at 3:32 pm
Ven – Over 35% Jewish.
”
Thanks BSF. That is very high. It shows that most Jews in Australian prefer Libs. BTW I was under the impression that Wentworth federal electorate has the highest Jewish population.
Libs have the Jews votes in the bag. IMO, it is insulting the intelligence of Jews for Guy announce that he’ll move Victoria’s tourism and trade office in Israel from Tel Aviv – where most of that tourism and trade would come from – to Jerusalem!
Correct, not a lot of evangelicals in Caulfield. They cluster more in the outer east and southeast.
Put it this way – the Libs thought the Jerusalem gambit would help them in Wentworth (about 10-15% Jewish from memory), whereas the state seat of Caulfield is about 35% Jewish, including big orthodox communities.
Not sure the federal electorate with the biggest % Jewish population, but at a guess it would be about equal 1st place between Wentworth and Macnamara (formerly Melbourne Ports, which basically covers the state seats of Albert Park and Caulfield).
Ven – Very substantial Jewish population, the highest in the country most likely out of any state or federal seat. Caulfield North is the largest suburb in the electorate and its population is 41% Jewish. The most concentrated Jewish community in Australia is centred around Caulfield North, Caulfield, East St Kilda, Balaclava, Ripponlea & Elsternwick, all of which are either wholly or partially contained within the Caulfield electorate.
Expat you’re right it is almost a tie between Wentworth & Macnamara at federal level, both around 12-13%.
I believe Melbourne Ports was the highest but the inclusion of Windsor with the redistribution may have bumped it down by just enough for Wentworth to have overtaken it at the time of the byelection.
Whereas Caulfield is basically the entire Jewish section of Melbourne Ports on its own.
Corio@3:06
Regarding the independents elected in 1999, Kennett reaped what he sowed.
When Russell Savage was the sole independent after 1996, Kennett treated him with disdain. As the “senior”of the three 1999 independents, he was influential in persuading them to back Bracks, although Susan Davies had been an ALP candidate in 1996.
————————
I remember it being reported at the time that on one occasion, Russell Savage was sharing out grapes that he’d brought from his home (in Mildura) to some other MPs in Parliament House. Apparently Kennett came by and Savage said words to the effect – would you like some Jeff? To which Kennett said – get fxxxed! From that point Savage understood the sort of person he was dealing with, and his decision in 1999 to support Bracks wasn’t all that difficult.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/11/21/victorian-election-minus-three-days/comment-page-2/#comment-3007174
Melbourne Ports is still the electorate, still represented by the retiring Michael Danby, until the redistribution takes effect upon the dissolution of the House of Representatives.
Guy is nuts.
I am coming across more and more people who have children involved with drugs. These people are desperate for any help to get their children off them.
They may not see the injecting room as useful to their children, but what they see is the injecting room is something different from the legal problems their children face. The legal problems only hinder their childrens’ rehabilitation and having their children caught up in the judicial system is part of their worry.
Guy will be losing votes by promising to close the supervised injecting room in Richmond.
Surely if the Liberals are pulling a stunt like this to hold a seat like Caulfield, which they hold by around 5 percent and last election got a 51 percent primary, they’re toast!
Corio, max
Russell Savage who was a Mildura policeman, won his seat in 1996 from the Nationals when the Coalition won a landslide. The Coalition people treated him as an “illegal immigrant” in Parliament at every level – on the floor of the Assembly, with regards to staff and office allowances, socially, publicly.
For someone who believes in democracy it was embarrassing – and when it became clear after the dust settled in 1999 that these three independents could decide the government I was confident he would line up against Kennett who had treated the people of Mildura’s choice so shamefully.
I was disappointed that our former St.Kilda star ruckman/forward Carl Ditterich didn’t win Swan Hill at that election as an independent. He did pretty well, which was pretty amzing as he is quite a reserved guy and maintains a low profile. I remember him appearing on Channel 9’s AFL Footy Show basically saying how great all the infrastructure in Melbourne looked when he came down for the show while meanwhile North West Victoria was really struggling.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/11/21/victorian-election-minus-three-days/comment-page-2/#comment-3007164
As of 30/06/2018 South Barwon is 13.48% over quota (with a consistent upward trend given growth in Armstrongs Creek, etc), Geelong is 1.26% over quota and Bellarine is 3.96% over quota but Polwarth is 2.15% under quota, indicating that Polwarth is easiest to give population to. Polwarth can also give population to South West Coast and/or Rippon. There is, however, some scope to give population to Geelong, which can in turn give some population to Lara (0.35% under quota). Polwarth has the rest of the Surf Coast, so Torquay would fit in on community of interest grounds and there is little else in the way of significant population that could be given to Polwarth as, appart from a few small towns and rural area, the rest of the population is in the continuous suburban area of Geelong.
https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/Publications/AnnualReports.html
David Southwick, the Liberal member for Caulfield has a spotlessly empty list of achievements. Both in his four years in government and his the last four years in opposition.
A significant local issue is a congestion caused by the two level crossings on the Frankston line.
Early on in the campaign, the ALP came out with the promise to remove those two crossings and I thought this would be the centrepiece of a push to win Caulfield. However, there did not appear to be much of a follow up from the ALP. With no specific campaign in Caulfield.
I’ve noticed Southwick being a bit more visible lately. He inexplicably appeared with his trademark “who is that odd guy in the background” demeanour in Matthew Guy’s visit to the cafe owner in Frankston. So maybe there’s a concern about Caulfield.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/tough-on-crime-guy-stops-for-coffee-with-convicted-drug-cultivator-20181119-p50gxg.html
Tom
What happens to upper house regions which grow and shrink relative to each other? Especially when just about all of their eleven electorates move in sync. Didn’t they swap one electorate between regions in the past?
Live in the seat of Altona and I had a chat with the people at Hooper’s booth. That and looking at the other indie’s website, it looks like they’re the sort who’ll put the Libs before Labor.
Also, still laughing at this comment from the responses to Roy Morgon: “That’s he’s a lobster eating, mafia loving, conservative tard who should be fired from a cannon into the sun. He’s untrustworthy, cruel, a weasel and unfit for public service.”
Raaraa @ #97 Wednesday, November 21st, 2018 – 5:17 pm
A boot scooting baby that’s driving them crazy……
https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/11/21/victorian-election-minus-three-days/comment-page-2/#comment-3007237
At the last redistribution (the only redistribution of the regions in the legislative Council, 2006 was a distribution not a redistribution (the regions were new) and prior redistributions were of the old provinces) and several districts moved region. At the coming redistribution, which will be on a smaller scale than 2014 (unless it is delayed) because not as much time will have elapsed between redistributions, it is likely that Western Metro will gain a new seat and loose Essendon (possibly renamed Moonee Ponds), Northern Metro will likely gain Essendon/Moonee Ponds and loose either Bundoora or Richmond. Eastern and Southern Metro are harder to predict. If Southern Metro gains Richmond, it will loose a seat (likely Burwood or possibly Kew) to Eastern Metro. If not, Eastern Metro will gain Bundoora and either way ill loose a seat (it is about a seat under quota).
Nothing to do with the results, but how is “Ripon” correctly pronounced? Ripe-on or Rip-on?