BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor

A further move against the Coalition on BludgerTrack leaves them looking hardly better than in the immediate aftermath of Malcolm Turnbull’s demise.

First up, please note the posts before this one on the Victorian election campaign and the resignation of Luke Foley.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with the only poll of the week, from Essential Research, which followed Newspoll in recording a movement in favour of Labor from 53-47 to 54-46. Labor is accordingly up by 0.6% in the aggregate’s two-party preferred reading, and have made gains of one apiece on the seat projection in Victoria and South Australia. Essential Research’s leadership ratings are also in the mix, but they haven’t made much difference. Full details through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,769 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor”

  1. BK, more people are bitten by snakes when trying to kill them then any other way, so don’t try to kill it…Oh and don’t try to save your dog from the snake, anther great way to get bitten……(I assume there is a dog in there somewhere).

  2. C@tmomma:

    Subtle? Subtle?

    Nath is many things, but subtle is not one of them. Half the time, he is so blatantly taking the piss that anyone who takes his comments seriously is either looking for an excuse to get into a flame war or desperately needs to beam back up to the mothership to study up on that “humour” thing all the humans use.

  3. Harry “Snapper” Organs @ #1589 Sunday, November 11th, 2018 – 6:08 pm

    Itzadream
    Thank for the warning about the videos you posted over the page. I had to have a couple of goes to watch them. This is complete wickedness.
    It’s one of those times I wish there was an afterlife in which those who make and order the deployment of such weapons got their comeuppance for eternity.

    You mean the ‘depleted uranium’ videos Harry I think, and they are from PhoenixRed

  4. Asha Leu @ #1650 Sunday, November 11th, 2018 – 7:46 pm

    C@tmomma:

    Subtle? Subtle?

    Nath is many things, but subtle is not one of them. Half the time, he is so blatantly taking the piss that anyone who takes his comments takes seriously is either looking for an excuse to get into a flame war with him or desperately needs to study up on that “humour” thing all the humans use.

    Yeah. Yeah. Poor, misunderstood, all-around fun guy, nath. Me, horrible harpy who just spoils for flame wars, without a sense of humour. 🙄

  5. Itzadream
    Yes, you’re right. Sorry about that. Completely threw me. The depleted uranium I can barely comprehend anyone making such weapons. Wicked.

  6. Jackol:

    Sunday, November 11, 2018 at 4:30 pm

    I take your point that it sometimes happens in Australia that a party loses the 2PP but is still be able to form government. It’s happened both at the state and federal levels. At the state level, you cite South Australia, where Labor was elected with only 47% of the 2PP. In the federal sphere, Labor lost the 1998 election on a 2PP of 50.98, gaining 18 seats, but the Tories formed government due to Howard’s ’96 landslide. But I think it’s fairly exceptional for this to occur, noting that I’ve not exhaustively researched the issue.

    While I’m aware of the history of the Electoral College, I still say that a presidential candidate (Clinton) who received 2.9 million more than her opponent (Trump) is not conducive to a democratic outcome, even though it’s part and parcel of the US political system. As I said to DTT, my critique was normative in nature. For a fairer electoral system in the US there should be a fully independent federal electoral commission, like we have here, denying states the power to draw boundaries that advantage one side, and one which would not deny a person the right to vote for at times very spurious grounds.

    [‘….and as far as being an affront to democracy – it really isn’t a big deal.’]

    I would argue that it is a very big deal, the 2016 US election negativing a democratic result, even though Trump’s win complied with the law in respect to the Electoral college, the value of the votes of the 2.9M meaning next to nothing.

  7. And before you excoriate me for posting that photo, it is exactly the same one which I just saw in a Michael Palin documentary about WW1 on SBS tonight at 6pm. During children’s viewing times.

  8. Honestly, I’m not even defending Nath, really – no doubt, he can be a pretty abrasive guy, and certainly goes out of his way to antagonise people sometimes – more defending common sense in general. When there’s a comment about “owning the blog”, obviously taking the piss out of the claims that Nath is William’s favorite son or whatever conspiracy is doing the rounds on Poll Bludger this week, and people react to it as if he’s genuinely claiming he runs the blog, they just look like nitwits. Much as with Rex and the Menzies House nonsense, it’s not so much the treatment of Nath I object to, it’s the intellectual laziness.

  9. Sean Marsh moves to 50 with a terrific smash over mid wicket for six.

    Stoinis will worry them. He can ramp it up and seems chocka block full of the angry pills.

  10. pica
    The most telling of stats on Aussie snake bites is that the vast majority have occurred to men who were pissed and trying to engage the snake.

  11. it’s not so much the treatment of Nath I object to, it’s the intellectual laziness.

    Intellectual rigour on PB is like the tide. It ebbs and flows.

  12. Dutton, that obnoxious individual, emerges to try and make political capital out of the tragedy in Melbourne.

    Mr Dutton took aim at Muslim Labor MP and counter-terrorism expert Anne Aly, who was critical of Mr Morrison’s blunt remarks about extremist Islam following Friday’s attack.

    The Western Australian MP had accused Mr Morrison of using divisive language because he was “politically desperate”, and said the PM should “read a book” about religious extremism.

    Mr Dutton accused Ms Aly of seeking to “deny that there’s a problem” with Islamic fundamentalism. He also said it proved Labor “doesn’t have the ability, frankly, to put in place the laws, to put in place the resolve to keep our borders secure and country safe”.

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/unacceptable-peter-dutton-demands-more-co-operation-from-muslim-leaders-on-terrorism-20181111-p50fdx.html

  13. And before you excoriate me for posting that photo, it is exactly the same one which I just saw in a Michael Palin documentary about WW1 on SBS tonight at 6pm. During children’s viewing times.

    FFS. This forum is…. not a documentary about WWI. It’s the comment section of a psephology blog. You watch a WWI documentary (well known for their broad appeal to young children, of course), you can probably expect to see some nasty stuff. The worst I expect to see here is a Abbott in his budgie smugglers.

    I scroll past enough gore in my Facebook feed from online heroes “raising awareness” (well, I did before I blocked them all), I don’t need to see that shit here. Seriously, what are you trying to achieve by posting this here, unless you’re just itching for a fight with those you already noted might excoriate you for doing so?

  14. C@tmomma:

    Sunday, November 11, 2018 at 7:57 pm

    I think to show the real horrors of war, the type of pic your posted is quite in order.

  15. Asha Leu, usually I agree with you, but I don’t think anyone was fooled by the ‘piss take’. And when someone doesn’t find a humorist humorous that is hardly the fault of that someone.

  16. “The crowd at Bellerive Oval is around 5,000. Pretty poor effort”
    That’s probably more than expected given that cricket in Australia is fast becoming a relic of the ugly Australian past.

  17. Mavis Smith –
    The USA is a big country; you keep quoting 2.9 million as if it is really significant.

    In terms of the actual votes cast, wikipedia shows Trump as receiving 63 million votes and Clinton receiving 65.9 – scaling that up to calculate a 2CP by my dodgy maths makes Trump the loser by only 48.9% to 51.1%.

    ie it’s well within the ballpark of deciding who will form government in this country with our systems.

    I’m not trying to defend the electoral college; it probably should be removed or negated, but arguing that the electoral college is so egregiously undemocratic is wrong. It was chosen to do a particular job, and it does that job and doesn’t even introduce that much distortion.

    There are so many other things wrong with American democracy; focusing on the electoral college is to be distracted by shiny things IMO.

  18. Mr Dutton accused Ms Aly of seeking to “deny that there’s a problem” with Islamic fundamentalism. He also said it proved Labor “doesn’t have the ability, frankly, to put in place the laws, to put in place the resolve to keep our borders secure and country safe”.

    Sick.

    Jesus 2 days after the tragedy and this fool is already out there trying to make political hay with it. FFS STFU unless you have something constructive or informative to say about it.

  19. Asha –

    FFS. This forum is…. not a documentary about WWI.

    Agreed. And it’s huuuge on my screen. There are times and places; this isn’t one of them.

  20. Jackol:

    I agree.

    The electoral college has a lot of issues, but any electoral system bar direct election of the president/government by popular vote always has the potential for someone to win the election while losing the popular vote. It’s not undemocratic, just flawed.

  21. The Age
    ‏Verified account @theage
    57m57 minutes ago

    ‘Unacceptable’: Peter Dutton demands more co-operation from Muslim leaders on terrorism #auspol

    SBS News
    ‏Verified account @SBSNews
    12m12 minutes ago

    Australian Imams and Muslim groups say Scott Morrison’s speech following Friday’s Bourke St mall knife attack went too far. #auspol

    ScoMo and Potato Head Team Dirt Bag.

  22. That’s probably more than expected given that cricket in Australia is fast becoming a relic of the ugly Australian past.

    Crowds in Aus for ODIs have been dropping steadily for a while. The format is a dodo.

  23. Asha Leu, usually I agree with you, but I don’t think anyone was fooled by the ‘piss take’. And when someone doesn’t find a humorist humorous that is hardly the fault of that someone.

    Whether or not it was actually funny is beside the point. It obviously was a joke, and it’s also obvious that several people clearly thought he was being totally serious. Seriously, go back a few pages and read through it all.

  24. Jackol:

    I can’t take my argument any further.

    I’ve said my peace and we’ll just have agree to disagree.

    Anyway, thanks for your considered responses.

  25. The Muslim community and its leaders have an important role in countering terrorism.

    However, making them patsies for political advantage goes against the national interest. But hey, that is the modern day LNP for you.

  26. Zoidlord @ #1679 Sunday, November 11th, 2018 – 7:47 pm

    The Age
    ‏Verified account @theage
    57m57 minutes ago

    ‘Unacceptable’: Peter Dutton demands more co-operation from Muslim leaders on terrorism #auspol

    SBS News
    ‏Verified account @SBSNews
    12m12 minutes ago

    Australian Imams and Muslim groups say Scott Morrison’s speech following Friday’s Bourke St mall knife attack went too far. #auspol

    ScoMo and Potato Head Team Dirt Bag.

    The local Imam said he had not been to the mosque for years.

    Morrison is lower than a snake’s belly.

  27. However, making them patsies for political advantage goes against the national interest. But hey, that is the modern day LNP for you.

    Dutton should watch and learn from Shorten’s media interview that was posted earlier by GG. He could learn a thing or two about showing leadership in the face of a national tragedy.

  28. Kelly O’Dwyer will be very pleased with her efforts to promote industry supper funds.

    Cbus chairman Steve Bracks says the industry super fund has had $1 billion in extra inflows since the banking royal commission, suggesting it is at the expense of retail funds.

  29. Mavis Smith @ #1668 Sunday, November 11th, 2018 – 8:09 pm

    C@tmomma:

    Sunday, November 11, 2018 at 7:57 pm

    I think to show the real horrors of war, the type of pic your posted is quite in order.

    Which is exactly why I did it. I made a solemn promise, decades ago, when I spoke to a survivor of World War 1, and I class myself as privileged to have met him, to never let people forget about what World War is really all about. None of this, ‘we appreciate your sacrifice’ pablum, but the true horrors of war that the politicians work very hard to keep secret from the rest of us.

    Today, on the Centennial of World War 1, I did that for the real, true blue, fair dinkum Digger who asked me to.

  30. Why are they selling poppies, Mummy?
    Selling poppies in town today.
    The poppies, child, are flowers of love.
    For the men who marched away.

    But why have they chosen a poppy, Mummy?
    Why not a beautiful rose?
    Because my child, men fought and died
    In the fields where the poppies grow.

    But why are the poppies so red, Mummy?
    Why are the poppies so red?
    Red is the colour of blood, my child.
    The blood that our soldiers shed.

    The heart of the poppy is black, Mummy.
    Why does it have to be black?
    Black, my child, is the symbol of grief.
    For the men who never came back.

    But why, Mummy are you crying so?
    Your tears are giving you pain.
    My tears are my fears for you my child.
    For the world is forgetting again.

    Author Unknown

  31. And I would add, cat, that today’s very special as it’s the hundredth anniversary of the end of WWI. I had two great uncles die in France, and my grandfather was shot but survived, suffering shell shock. He never talked about it, untowardly affecting his family. In WWII I also lost family. I further think that the
    Invictus Games are a very good thing, bringing to public attention the physical effects of war. And I think Harry’s done a terrific job.

  32. And if you don’t like it, Asha. Tough. I made a promise to a man who saw the full horrors of WW1 but survived to tell the tale. Lest We Forget.

    Tomorrow, it’s back to the photos of the Uber Tuber and the Toned Abs of Tony Abbott. 🙂

  33. C@tmomma:

    [‘…I did that for the real, true blue, fair dinkum Digger who asked me to.’]

    And a bravo zulu to you for doing what the digger asked of you.

  34. Just like the Liberals here. We will know the Libs and the Republicans are serious about appealing to mainstream voters when they start preselecting women candidates for winnable seats instead of the usual boys club routine of old.

    Dave WassermanVerified account@Redistrict
    11h11 hours ago
    Staggering: if every uncalled race breaks as I expect, House Dems’ class of 61 freshmen would include *35* women & just 19 white men. By contrast, Republicans’ class of 31 would include 29 white men & just *one* woman.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *