BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor

A further move against the Coalition on BludgerTrack leaves them looking hardly better than in the immediate aftermath of Malcolm Turnbull’s demise.

First up, please note the posts before this one on the Victorian election campaign and the resignation of Luke Foley.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with the only poll of the week, from Essential Research, which followed Newspoll in recording a movement in favour of Labor from 53-47 to 54-46. Labor is accordingly up by 0.6% in the aggregate’s two-party preferred reading, and have made gains of one apiece on the seat projection in Victoria and South Australia. Essential Research’s leadership ratings are also in the mix, but they haven’t made much difference. Full details through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,769 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor”

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  3. poroti @ #1539 Sunday, November 11th, 2018 – 4:41 pm

    ItzaDream says:

    I thought Michael Daley gave a very strong performance on Insiders. He was everything Morrison is trying to ape, and for which he, Morrison, lacks the essential ingredients, honesty and genuineness.

    By golly those NSW Labor people were ever so lucky that Foley thing came out now 😉

    It’s such a relief to have NSW Labor back in the right factions safe hands.

  4. booleanbach

    Not forgetting the shed loads of depleted uranium etc that we pumped into Iraq.
    .

    However, what is little known is that for the past 25 years the United States and its allies have routinely used radioactive weapons in battle, in the form of warheads and explosives made with depleted, undepleted or slightly enriched uranium.

    Scott Ritter, a former Marine Corps officer in Iraq and United Nations weapons inspector, told me, “The irony is we invaded Iraq in 2003 to destroy its nonexistent WMD [weapons of mass destruction]. To do it, we fired these new weapons, causing radioactive casualties.”

    The weapons were first used in 1991 during Desert Storm, when the U.S. military fired guided bombs and missiles containing depleted uranium (DU), a waste product from nuclear reactors. The DOD particularly prized them because, with dramatic density, speed and heat, they blasted through tanks and bunkers.

    Within one or two years, grotesque birth defects spiralled—such as babies with two heads. Or missing eyes, hands and legs. Or stomachs and brains inside out.

    https://www.newsweek.com/how-us-made-use-radioactive-bombs-routine-443732

  5. booleanbach @ #1530 Sunday, November 11th, 2018 – 3:47 pm

    Sounds like the Libs, the Nats & PHON to me:
    Researchers suspect this three-way hybridization ultimately happened in part because of declining numbers in the local population of golden-winged warblers, leaving females with fewer potential mates. In response, they may be “making the best of a bad situation” by selecting mates outside of their own species and genus, researchers wrote.
    https://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2018/11/10/scientists-discover-adorable-bird-thats-actually-3-species-in-one_a_23586005/?utm_hp_ref=au-homepage

    Although the ‘adorable’ bit would be quite a stretch.

    Wasn’t it here on PB that there was heated discussion not that long ago about what constituted a species?

    If the golden-winged warblers are selecting not just outside their species but also their genus, this shows that species is a very artificial construct, one purely for convenience, and not a hard and fast rule that only those of the same species can mate and produce fertile offspring.

  7. If you would like to learn about the nature government spending by a currency-issuer that permits its currency to float in foreign exchange markets and does not have any unhedged debts in foreign currencies, please watch this talk by Professor Stephanie Kelton.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6IBEoWSiTHc&t=119s

    If you have the time, please consider attending a presentation by Professor Kelton. She will be speaking at an event that is organized by GetUp.

    The events will be in Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane.

    Future To Fight For: Rethinking The Economy

    https://rethink.futuretofightfor.org.au/speakers

    The Sydney event will be held at Sydney Town Hall, 483 George Street, Sydney NSW 2000.

    The date and time of the Sydney event will be Saturday 17th November 2018 at 7.00 pm.

    The Melbourne event will be held at Collingwood Town Hall, 140 Hoddle Street, Abbotsford VIC 3067.

    The date and time of the Melbourne event will be Tuesday 20th November at 7.00 pm

    The Brisbane event will be held at Lightspace, 30 Light Street, Fortitude Valley QLD 4006.

    The date and time of the Brisbane event will be Wednesday 21st November at 7.00 pm

    Professor Kelton will outline the rigorous macroeconomic case for the federal government to spend within the productive limits of the economy instead of targeting arbitrary and irrelevant deficit to GDP and public debt to GDP ratios.

  8. PhoenixRED@4:25pm
    Although Putin is demonised on PB he is much better than Trump. He was standing in the rain. That is what leaders do to show respect to your fallen.
    I will give an example of Obama.
    India celebrates Republic Day and Independence Day every year. On Republic Day the Military and Military ware is on parade. India usually invites a Head of State as official guest for that parade. In 2016, Obama was the guest. During the parade, it started raining. But Obama and Indian PM Modi sat in the rain and watched the parade till the end.

  9. I’d just like to point out that today has been a good day on PB. No serious hatred about, everyone having their say, a bit of humor, some pathos and a widespread feeling of bonhomie. The ALP/Greens war was kept to a respectful minimum. This is what I dreamed about when I took over this blog. Have a nice Sunday dinner people.

  10. don

    I didn’t get involved in the heated species debate!

    I just remember a Zoology lecturer drawing a diagram on the board of some animals where say A and B could produce fertile offspring, as could B and C, and C and D, but not A and D. (actually had specific examples which I can’t remember). They then asked us where the ‘species’ lines would fall.

    We had no idea. I still don’t!

    Which I’m sure was the point they were trying to make.

  11. One for Victoria if she’s around. One election outcome Putin didn’t win.

    A Republican congressman known for his outspoken support for Russian President Vladi­mir Putin narrowly lost his Orange County, Calif., seat after 15 terms, a defeat that helped Democrats further solidify their House majority.

    Democrat Harley Rouda, a real estate executive, beat Rep. Dana Rohrabacher in one of the state’s most closely watched congressional races, the Associated Press projected on Saturday. Rohrabacher’s strong identification with President Trump and his unabashed support for Russia had made him ripe for a challenge in an affluent district that went for Hillary Clinton in 2016.

    Rouda had 109,591 votes to Rohrabacher’s 101,081 votes, with 52 percent of the vote to the Republican’s 48 percent, according to the AP.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/dana-rohrabacher-a-pro-russia-republican-narrowly-loses-house-seat/2018/11/10/97b12136-e44a-11e8-8f5f-a55347f48762_story.html?utm_term=.7ae451afd490

  12. nath @ #1556 Sunday, November 11th, 2018 – 1:22 pm

    I’d just like to point out that today has been a good day on PB. No serious hatred about, everyone having their say, a bit of humor, some pathos and a widespread feeling of bonhomie. The ALP/Greens war was kept to a respectful minimum. This is what I dreamed about when I took over this blog. Have a nice Sunday dinner people.

    Seems to relate to a reduction in the number of your postings. 🙂

  15. ”
    Confessions@3:53pm
    Heads would be exploding at Fox
    ”
    There are no more heads to explode because they only have straw men.
    This is the biggest humiliation by a POTUS to his military and it is even worse than it looks because he is the Commander-in-Chief.

  17. This is the biggest humiliation by a POTUS to his military and it is even worse than it looks because he is the Commander-in-Chief.

    It really does not look good, esp with images of all the other world leaders there in the rain, no umbrellas or anything. Trump is a frickin disgrace.

  20. It seems the strawberry scare was real.

    A woman has been arrested over a strawberry needle contamination that sparked a nationwide crisis and led to harsher penalties being rushed through federal parliament for those caught tampering with food.

    The 50-year-old woman was taken into Queensland Police custody on Sunday after a months-long investigation involving authorities and intelligence agencies from multiple states.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/11/strawberry-needle-contamination-queensland-police-arrest-50-year-old-woman

  25. zoomster @ #1602 Sunday, November 11th, 2018 – 2:56 pm

    Someone on SKY (or Insiders, I watched both..) claimed this morning that the strawberry thing had all been a big hoax because no one had been charged. I thought at the time they were being a little premature…

    https://thewest.com.au/news/australia/woman-arrested-over-strawberry-contamination-ng-b881018443z

    On Insiders Laura Tingle cited a News ltd report from Smethurst that it was all a big hoax. Cassidy smirked that the photos of needles in strawberries were all on social media, implying it was fake news.

  26. ItzaDream @ #1544 Sunday, November 11th, 2018 – 4:09 pm

    I thought Michael Daley gave a very strong performance on Insiders. He was everything Morrison is trying to ape, and for which he, Morrison, lacks the essential ingredients, honesty and genuineness.

    Daley clearly enunciated why he is the new leader. He drew a line under Foley, gave his strong opinion that Foley was at fault, on both counts – he did it and then lied about it – by offering full belief in the woman’s story. He skewered Elliott and Gladys, leaving no where for her to go – she either knew and sanctioned Ellliot’s actions, or didn’t know when she should have, and therefore had no control over her Govt. No where that is, except to deal with Elliott, and eschew parliamentary filth, as he vowed Labor would. It was both a challenge and pledge. Labor had emerged actually the political victor, in dealing with its problem decisively, learning its lessons, and setting the new standard.

    Daley looked every bit the everyman Morrison haplessly seeks to portray. With one difference – he is an everyman who has matured into a worthy leader who understands the suburbs and the cities and seeks to understands the land, bringing his life experiences with him. He need eat no pies, wear no caps. He has, cliché alert, moved on. He proudly spoke of his past – Maroubra, paper boy, paying his way through law, then all but drafted into politics by the magnetism of Keating, seeing through Keating eyes the worth of it all.

    Morrison’s past is clouded and shrouded. From preselection irregularities to his aborted time at Tourism, where the stink still lingers over issues of compliance and competence, to his bumbling inability to take the mantle of PM with good reason, Morrison is by contrast both shallow and shifty.

    Daley clearly enunciated what he and the Labor party stands for and will campaign on. He needs no bravura acting schtick to mask a policy vacuum.

    He addressed his own poor show with alcohol on the job with the common sense of someone who can learn a lesson, and change.

    And he kept religion out of it.

    It was a measured assured turn, without a hint of arrogance, but sufficiently confident to impress and show he means business.

    I liked him.

    A fine post & why I keep lurking here..

    Thanks, ItzaDream

  28. kevjohnno says:
    Sunday, November 11, 2018 at 5:56 pm

    It got a smile out of me Nath.

    __________________________
    Thanks mate. Looks like I spoke too soon about the nice day!

  30. frednk

    You’re misreading it – there has already been one arrest for a false statement (a man in SA, from memory). This is a new arrest, for tampering.

    It is poorly worded.

  32. Paul Barrett, former Secretary of Defence, tPeople with mental illness and lone wolf terrorists are not a threat to our way of life : they simply present a risk to individuals.

    The risk to our way of life is politicians who see acts of violence as a political opportunity, and set about changing the way we do things.

  36. ‘I’m here most days, keeping an eye on you all…’

    Really, what with Wotcha and nath and now you, PBers are a bit over surveilled…

  39. Itzadream
    Thank for the warning about the videos you posted over the page. I had to have a couple of goes to watch them. This is complete wickedness.
    It’s one of those times I wish there was an afterlife in which those who make and order the deployment of such weapons got their comeuppance for eternity.

  40. sprocket_ @ #1576 Sunday, November 11th, 2018 – 6:06 pm

    Paul Barrett, former Secretary of Defence, tPeople with mental illness and lone wolf terrorists are not a threat to our way of life : they simply present a risk to individuals.

    The risk to our way of life is politicians who see acts of violence as a political opportunity, and set about changing the way we do things.

    The risk to our way of life is voters who vote for ‘politicians who see acts of violence as a political opportunity’.

  43. GG

    George Spivoporpolous was posting on Alex Turnbull’s Facebook page.

    This knifing of Malcolm will be the growing stink of the dead albatross around the neck of the Liberal Party until they are purged

  44. Rocket Rocket @ #1559 Sunday, November 11th, 2018 – 5:24 pm

    don

    I didn’t get involved in the heated species debate!

    I just remember a Zoology lecturer drawing a diagram on the board of some animals where say A and B could produce fertile offspring, as could B and C, and C and D, but not A and D. (actually had specific examples which I can’t remember). They then asked us where the ‘species’ lines would fall.

    We had no idea. I still don’t!

    Which I’m sure was the point they were trying to make.

    No, that was the point I was trying to make, and there was an attempt to howl me down. I took no notice, and continued to find more evidence for the concept.

    Which was ignored, of course. Not a problem, it was just a little contretemps on PB, nothing unusual.

    …… mules were mentioned, whether in reference to me or to the draught animal, I am not sure….. 😉

  46. I feel sick. Kangaroo Island has just had its own Trump/Duterte/Bolsonaro moment: electing Michael Pengilly, arguably the most repugnant individual to serve as an SA Parliamentarian in living memory besides Bernie Finnigan himself, back to his old job as Mayor. To coin a phrase, I say we nuke the site from orbit.

  47. nath, it is Remembrance Day, after all. Hostilities have been suspended and poppies instead of opinions will decorate our lapels. For my part, I hope for peace, a choir, the embrace of my family, followed by bitter herbs and dumplings, with red. And then some blues and a bath in goodness. I’ve met goodness itself recently, how strange to find without looking.

  49. It got a smile out of me

    It would get a smile out of (or at least not trigger quite such spitting rage in) anybody possessing a skerrick of emotional stability and perspective.

    Yikes.

  50. briefly says:
    Sunday, November 11, 2018 at 6:15 pm

    nath, it is Remembrance Day, after all. Hostilities have been suspended and poppies instead of opinions will decorate our lapels. For my part, I hope for peace, a choir, the embrace of my family, followed by bitter herbs and dumplings, with red. And then some blues and a bath in goodness. I’ve met goodness itself recently, how strange to find without looking.
    ___________________________________
    Have a nice night. I am trying to be peaceful and not just for this day. I am going to be like Gandhi in the face of any online attacks against me. I just want the chance to perform some comedy but how can you perform in front of humorless people?

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