BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor

A further move against the Coalition on BludgerTrack leaves them looking hardly better than in the immediate aftermath of Malcolm Turnbull’s demise.

First up, please note the posts before this one on the Victorian election campaign and the resignation of Luke Foley.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with the only poll of the week, from Essential Research, which followed Newspoll in recording a movement in favour of Labor from 53-47 to 54-46. Labor is accordingly up by 0.6% in the aggregate’s two-party preferred reading, and have made gains of one apiece on the seat projection in Victoria and South Australia. Essential Research’s leadership ratings are also in the mix, but they haven’t made much difference. Full details through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,769 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor”

  1. #Galaxy Poll QLD Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 50 (0) ALP 50 (0) #auspol

    Bludgertrack has it 47-53

    The detail will be interesting

  2. Fess

    And Steve Schmidt sums up the mango Mussolini with respect to his response to California fires

    __________
    Steve Schmidt
    Steve Schmidt
    @SteveSchmidtSES
    A fool and imbecile of such staggering dimensions that it defies description in the English language. Americans have died, others have lost everything and California faces a natural disaster of epic proportions and the “ President” attacks California. Shameful beyond measure

  3. John Setka
    ‏@CFMEUJohnSetka
    3h3 hours ago

    Peter Dutton has just turned a press conference about the horrors of the Bourke St murder and attack into a “Labor aren’t up to it” election campaign. Utterly despicable!

  4. Someone on the twitter feed saying 50-50 equates to a swing of 8 seats to the ALP. Bludger tracks 53-47 equates to 10 seats changing to ALP.

  5. Fess

    There have been markers over Trump’s presidency where he was ready to walk.
    I feel he is in the midst of another one of his meltdowns.

  6. More great stuff from Roman Quaedvlieg.
    “What I struggle to reconcile:

    1. The man who I worked with on OSB

    2. This curious P.T Barnum character that has morphed out of the chrysalis of a sober Treasurer; and

    3. The conflicted Christian who prays and cries for refugee children

    They are the same man, but who is he?”

  7. Vic:

    The midterm results would’ve been a massive blow to him, even though he tried to claim a victory for himself on twitter.

    People like Rorhabacher who strongly backed him lost their seats, plus the Republicans had to put effort into defending states like Texas. There’s no sugar coating that.

  8. Stephen Spencer comments on the 50/50 Galaxy, tweets..

    “So much for the claim that dumping Malcolm would lift the LNP Qld vote. That’s a 4.1% swing, uniform across the state would cost 8 seats including Dutton’s

  9. Stephen Spencer comments on the 50/50 Galaxy, tweets..

    “So much for the claim that dumping Malcolm would lift the LNP Qld vote. That’s a 4.1% swing, uniform across the state would cost 8 seats including Dutton’s

    But just think how much worse it would be if they did not “dump Malcolm” 🙂

  10. BK
    I’ll stop with my “helpful” suggestions. I’m a on the edge of the city dweller now: 50 kms, so would not have a clue. Spiders, of which we have many, from little bitsy ones to humungous ones that could take out a small bird are prolific, but don’t worry me. The Joe Blakes, on the other hand, give me the willies.
    Orright, back to the cricket and ignominion yet again, I fear.

  11. “The remembrance ceremony would have been much the better off with idiot Trump “..indeed…We should be remembering the millions of those who died a horrible death – on Western, Eastern and every other front..instead we are talking about that f$%^wit.

  12. Just on the cricket, and the outrage that CA have inflicted on the loyal fans by selling the rights to US Citizen, my approach is:

    – took 2 week ‘free trial’ of FoxTel Now
    – cancelled ‘free trial’today, giving as my reason ‘I would probably pay $20 a month for a sports channel, but I won’t no part of the shit on SkyNews’
    – discovered that my long running $29 per year sub to CA Cricket Live app on the iPad is streaming the Fox content. In chatting with them online, they say the One Dayers and the T20 with Australia will all be shown on their app. They have always streamed the Tests.

    I don’t mind Australia struggling, but would like to see some fresh faces

  13. sprocket_ @ #1631 Sunday, November 11th, 2018 – 7:27 pm

    Just on the cricket, and the outrage that CA have inflicted on the loyal fans by selling the rights to US Citizen, my approach is:

    – took 2 week ‘free trial’ of FoxTel Now
    – cancelled ‘free trial’today, giving as my reason ‘I would probably pay $20 a month for a sports channel, but I won’t no part of the shit on SkyNews’
    – discovered that my long running $29 per year sub to CA Cricket Live app on the iPad is streaming the Fox content. In chatting with them online, they say the One Dayers and the T20 with Australia will all be shown on their app. They have always streamed the Tests.

    I don’t mind Australia struggling, but would like to see some fresh faces

    https://kayosports.com.au/

    My pleasure.

  14. Torchbearer @ #1634 Sunday, November 11th, 2018 – 7:25 pm

    “The remembrance ceremony would have been much the better off with idiot Trump “..indeed…We should be remembering the millions of those who died a horrible death – on Western, Eastern and every other front..instead we are talking about that f$%^wit.

    Which is exactly what he wants. To be at the centre of every news cycle.

  15. That photo of Shorten and Keating together is interesting – I always assumed Keating was quite tall and that Shorten was, well, not, but apparently they are the same height.

  16. Asha Leu says:

    Good lord, people, Nath was obviously joking.

    It is one of life’s great mysteries. Why people take nath’s comments with a seriousness inversely proportional to the degree of piss take they are made in.

  17. Asha Leu @ #1639 Sunday, November 11th, 2018 – 7:30 pm

    Good lord, people, Nath was obviously joking.

    I’l leave the question of whether or not it was a good joke for others to judge, but it blatantly was a joke.

    Walter Mitty’s ‘jokes’ were incredibly subtle as well. However, they just became infuriating after a while, not really very funny. Oh, except to an audience of about one.

    Yes, I know, he just loves taking the piss and antagonising posters here for a laff. It’s just that what you find humurous, I find juvenile.

  18. I think nath is funny FWIW particularly given he’s recovering from major surgery apparently. Don’t for a moment take him seriously, mind.

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