BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor

A further move against the Coalition on BludgerTrack leaves them looking hardly better than in the immediate aftermath of Malcolm Turnbull’s demise.

First up, please note the posts before this one on the Victorian election campaign and the resignation of Luke Foley.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with the only poll of the week, from Essential Research, which followed Newspoll in recording a movement in favour of Labor from 53-47 to 54-46. Labor is accordingly up by 0.6% in the aggregate’s two-party preferred reading, and have made gains of one apiece on the seat projection in Victoria and South Australia. Essential Research’s leadership ratings are also in the mix, but they haven’t made much difference. Full details through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,769 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor”

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  1. C@tmomma @ #1481 Sunday, November 11th, 2018 – 2:35 pm

    nath @ #1478 Sunday, November 11th, 2018 – 2:33 pm

    Yeah that’s probably right Asha. If the Greens can get even 2-3 lower house seats in Canberra then it will matter big time in a hung/close parliament.

    Which is why it’s better to vote Labor so that another ‘hung/close parliament’ doesn’t eventuate.

    Down here in Victoria, the Greens mantra of voting for them because they will have have the balance of power and act like a hand brake goes down like a lead balloon.

    People are actually sick of gridlock and are looking for the Government to get on with the job.

  7. What could Trump do? Drive to the cemetry in an escorted motorcade of the plentiful armoured limousines available for his use? Impossible.

    With all the rain golf had to be cancelled. Trump is the real victim here.

  10. The Coalition and their 2GB demographic like to demonise certain groups. I note the Melbourne “Trolley man” was one of those “homeless welfare bums” and the woman who tried to save Sisto Malaspina and cared for him in his final moments was one of those single mother ‘welfare queens’.

  11. Morrison is a clown. Seriously, he is more stupid than Abbott. If his party hadn’t been in government for the last few years I’m sure he’d be wearing a ‘Make Australia Great Again’ cap but he can hardly do that without giving the game away.

  14. poroti
    says:
    Sunday, November 11, 2018 at 3:12 pm
    nath
    The Tones pick earns a triple
    ______________________
    Thanks Poroti. It was only thanks to you that I’ve been able to take this vaudeville show fully visual!

  15. Trump’s entourage would have had a backup plan if the helicopter was not viable. The French would have cleared the roads for him if necessary.

    The lazy bastard just did not want to get out of bed, imo.

  16. Barely two months in the job and Morrison is already a running joke.

    Can’t wait for his Sir Prince Phillip moment. Must be coming soon.

  18. nath @ #1496 Sunday, November 11th, 2018 – 2:59 pm

    C@tmomma
    I see nath needs glasses. He couldn’t see the house.
    ____________________
    Actually I made no mention of the car shed or what looks like a nice little cottage. that was someone else. Looks like a nice place, enjoy.

    Ah, yes, it was Tom. My bad. But I already wear glasses. Maybe I need new ones? 🙂

  19. “Apparently his helicopter can’t fly in rain …”

    What the actual fuck? Marine Corp Helicopters are amongst the most robust flying machines currently in operation. The weather did not seem to be a category 5 storm to me (and even if it was those beasts were probably good to go).

  20. poroti @ #1509 Sunday, November 11th, 2018 – 3:18 pm

    The Coalition and their 2GB demographic like to demonise certain groups. I note the Melbourne “Trolley man” was one of those “homeless welfare bums” and the woman who tried to save Sisto Malaspina and cared for him in his final moments was one of those single mother ‘welfare queens’.

    All those 3AW/2GB types probably didn’t want to get their clothes dirty. Or actually do anything courageous.

  22. There are some on here who refer to statistics – including me

    But, my measure of statistics is not because of a statistic but because of the movement

    For example, the definition of being employed is what it is (and I think we adopted the international criteria during Costello’s time) so the statistic is meaningless

    It is the movement which is the significant measurement

    And so on thru GDP, Money Supply and the absolute welter of other data compiled

    It is not the figure per se, it is the movement as an indicator of impact on citizens and the economy

    In regards statistics as the measurement, the old saying is statistics, statistics and damn lies

    The history of statistics gives a norm – and it is the movement from that historical norm plus the trend which is the data accessed for understanding – and response

    And there are instances of one statistic or set of statistics impacting on another statistic or set of statistics

    You note that with Kohler’s presentations on the ABC News

    The graphs are the defining summary

    Statistics are merely what they are – and the longer time they are kept over the more meaningful their trend line becomes

  23. Senator Murray Watt
    ‏
    Verified account
    @MurrayWatt
    As a backbencher, Stuart Robert led LNP attempts to stop controls on loan sharks. Now, as Minister in charge, new laws are sidelined. Coincidence?

  24. When attacking John McCain Trump stated that he preferred his heroes not to get captured. He probably also prefers his heroes not to get killed.

  25. One of the things about being PM is that by the time you’ve got the necessary experience and support, you’re no longer young.

  28. Observer @ #1520 Sunday, November 11th, 2018 – 3:34 pm

    There are some on here who refer to statistics – including me

    But, my measure of statistics is not because of a statistic but because of the movement

    For example, the definition of being employed is what it is (and I think we adopted the international criteria during Costello’s time) so the statistic is meaningless

    It is the movement which is the significant measurement

    And so on thru GDP, Money Supply and the absolute welter of other data compiled

    It is not the figure per se, it is the movement as an indicator of impact on citizens and the economy

    In regards statistics as the measurement, the old saying is statistics, statistics and damn lies

    The history of statistics gives a norm – and it is the movement from that historical norm plus the trend which is the data accessed for understanding – and response

    And there are instances of one statistic or set of statistics impacting on another statistic or set of statistics

    You note that with Kohler’s presentations on the ABC News

    The graphs are the defining summary

    Statistics are merely what they are – and the longer time they are kept over the more meaningful their trend line becomes

    The trend is your friend!

  30. Laocoon says:
    Sunday, November 11, 2018 at 2:50 pm
    Hey briefly

    Thanks for the commentary on Pearce yesterday

    Do you have any sense of the reception to ALP in Stirling? Rather wider margin (6.1 vs 3.6) but with Keenan, fingered by Turnbull

    Hi Laocoon. I have not been able to spend much time in Stirling, though went to a town hall a few months ago. I plan to help with some door-knocking and will report in more detail.

    The geography/demographics of Stirling are more difficult in a way than Pearce, even though Pearce does have some very diehard conservative-voting rural districts. Stirling has a belt of oceanside, affluent neighbourhoods with equally conservative instincts. However, in the rest of the seat the sentiment for Labor should be very good and there will be movement. The campaign team are very dedicated and well-organised and will be well-funded; and the candidate is also articulate and well-recognised.

    When I know more…I’ll update the bludgers… 🙂

  31. Sounds like the Libs, the Nats & PHON to me:
    Researchers suspect this three-way hybridization ultimately happened in part because of declining numbers in the local population of golden-winged warblers, leaving females with fewer potential mates. In response, they may be “making the best of a bad situation” by selecting mates outside of their own species and genus, researchers wrote.
    https://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2018/11/10/scientists-discover-adorable-bird-thats-actually-3-species-in-one_a_23586005/?utm_hp_ref=au-homepage

    Although the ‘adorable’ bit would be quite a stretch.

  32. Andrew_E:

    Jennifer JacobsVerified account@JenniferJJacobs
    14h14 hours ago
    Weather canceled the trip. The presidential helicopter can’t fly in poor conditions. And Belleau Wood is about 55 miles from downtown Paris; driving there would have been logistically challenging for the large presidential motorcade.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/trump-and-macron-meet-whats-left-to-talk-about/2018/11/10/680a014c-e1ec-11e8-ba30-a7ded04d8fac_story.html?utm_term=.ab0e0e2f0c33

  35. Conor FriedersdorfVerified account@conor64
    4h4 hours ago
    Today I am thinking about what conservative media would publish and broadcast for the next week if Barack Obama had blown off a major WWI commemoration because of rain. I am especially thinking of @IngrahamAngle.

    Heads would be exploding at Fox News for sure.

  36. The problem at Fox News is that there are no unexploded heads left.
    More heads have been ordered and are due to be delivered by Amazon any day now.

  39. DaretoTread:

    Apologies – I missed you response of late last night.

    ‘The thing is the electoral system is s known quantity and both knew the rules.’

    That’s true but the electoral college is undemocratic, the manifest flaws of which are detailed here:

    https://shadowproof.com/2012/10/31/the-top-seven-ways-the-electoral-college-is-unfair-stupid-and-dangerous/

    ‘The US middle is not ready to be controlled by its coast.’

    Again, the central thrust of my argument is that the current system, albeit it’s known to the majors, is undemocratic. If the population of east and west coasts exceeds that of middle America (as it does), it should matter not. In Queensland, for instance, Joh maintained power due to the gerrymander, where the votes of rural constituents exceeded those in the cities, suburbia, regions. Yes, it was introduced by Labor, but that’s beside the point. The so-called Bjelkemander kept the corrupt Joh and his mates in power for 19 years, and before him, Nicklin.

    ‘…they did not like Hilliary’

    But overall 2.9 million of Americans did, but because of the undemocratic electoral college, she failed. No such result would ensue in other western liberal democracies. Yes, it is the system but again in a normative sense, nearly 3 million were effectively disenfranchised – anathema to the democratic process. And don’t get me wrong: I’m not enamoured of Hillary.

    ‘The country is polarised’

    Yes, no argument there, not helped by Trump, whose treatment of anyone opposed to him is the pits. Never in the history of the US has there been such a sociopath in the WH. But his time is coming.

    Overall, it now appears that the Dems will record a near 8 point swing towards it. As I said before, this is a relatively huge turnaround. And come January, 1 Trump will face the full force of the House. The Dems should deploy every tactic in the book to bring this tyrant down before he can exact more harm on the American people, the world.

  40. Winston Churchill’s grandson has something to say about Trump squibbing the memorial.

    Nicholas SoamesVerified account@NSoames
    14h14 hours ago
    They died with their face to the foe and that pathetic inadequate @realDonaldTrump couldn’t even defy the weather to pay his respects to The Fallen #hesnotfittorepresenthisgreatcountry

  43. But overall 2.9 million of Americans did, but because of the undemocratic electoral college, she failed. No such result would ensue in other western liberal democracies.

    Ummm. There is nothing to stop our system from throwing up this kind of result.

    SA elected a Labor government that lost the 2PP 47-53, and it is quite possible for an equivalent outcome to occur federally (noting the difference between an executive presidential system and our parliamentary systems, but it still means that a substantial majority voted against the executive that came to power).

    If you expect your system to produce a proportional result, then you should have a proportional system (and I advocate moving to a proportional system, as unlikely as it is to get any movement on this; even Trudeau, with a mandate to pursue scrapping FPTP squibbed doing anything). But the electoral college was created with its built-in malapportionment for a reason as part of the negotiations to form their Federation, and as far as being an affront to democracy – it really isn’t a big deal.

  44. Trump will get his new AG to revoke this photographers licence for getting the Trump bald spot in shot and Mrs Macron not looking too impressed with a stink eye at Donny ….

  45. I thought Michael Daley gave a very strong performance on Insiders. He was everything Morrison is trying to ape, and for which he, Morrison, lacks the essential ingredients, honesty and genuineness.

    Daley clearly enunciated why he is the new leader. He drew a line under Foley, gave his strong opinion that Foley was at fault, on both counts – he did it and then lied about it – by offering full belief in the woman’s story. He skewered Elliott and Gladys, leaving no where for her to go – she either knew and sanctioned Ellliot’s actions, or didn’t know when she should have, and therefore had no control over her Govt. No where that is, except to deal with Elliott, and eschew parliamentary filth, as he vowed Labor would. It was both a challenge and pledge. Labor had emerged actually the political victor, in dealing with its problem decisively, learning its lessons, and setting the new standard.

    Daley looked every bit the everyman Morrison haplessly seeks to portray. With one difference – he is an everyman who has matured into a worthy leader who understands the suburbs and the cities and seeks to understands the land, bringing his life experiences with him. He need eat no pies, wear no caps. He has, cliché alert, moved on. He proudly spoke of his past – Maroubra, paper boy, paying his way through law, then all but drafted into politics by the magnetism of Keating, seeing through Keating eyes the worth of it all.

    Morrison’s past is clouded and shrouded. From preselection irregularities to his aborted time at Tourism, where the stink still lingers over issues of compliance and competence, to his bumbling inability to take the mantle of PM with good reason, Morrison is by contrast both shallow and shifty.

    Daley clearly enunciated what he and the Labor party stands for and will campaign on. He needs no bravura acting schtick to mask a policy vacuum.

    He addressed his own poor show with alcohol on the job with the common sense of someone who can learn a lesson, and change.

    And he kept religion out of it.

    It was a measured assured turn, without a hint of arrogance, but sufficiently confident to impress and show he means business.

    I liked him.

  46. ItzaDream says:

    I thought Michael Daley gave a very strong performance on Insiders. He was everything Morrison is trying to ape, and for which he, Morrison, lacks the essential ingredients, honesty and genuineness.

    By golly those NSW Labor people were ever so lucky that Foley thing came out now 😉

  48. Itza:

    I agree with you about Daley, I thought he sounded sincere and genuine. Also liked that he has made overtures to Gladys about improving standards in the parliament. How could she possibly disagree with that one?

  49. ‘Lest we forget’, indeed.
    According to hamlet census data, herbicides were sprayed on as many as 4.8 million Vietnamese. Immediate reactions to such exposure included nausea, cramps, and diarrhea. In the longer term, the defoliants have been associated with a higher incidence of stillbirths as well as cancers and birth defects like anencephaly and spina bifida that affect Vietnamese children to this day.
    So many decades later, there are countless other contaminated hotspots, as well as at least 350,000 tons of live bombs, artillery shells, rockets, and mines that could take hundreds of years to clear. There are also the surviving wounded of the conflict and those who continue to be injured by all that leftover ordnance. http://www.tomdispatch.com/
    And in some years time we will probably be seeing similar reports about Iraq & Afghanistan.

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