Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

A bad Newspoll for the Liberals, made worse by a sharp deterioration in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings.

The latest Newspoll has Labor’s lead up again after a period of moderating results since the leadership upheaval, the two-party lead now at 54-46, compared with 53-47 in the poll a fortnight ago. Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 39%, while the Coalition is down one to 36%, the Greens are down two to 9%, and One Nation are steady on 6%. Still more worrying for the Liberals is a reversal of the tide in favour of Scott Morrison, who records his first net negative personal ratings to date, with approval down four to 41% and disapproval up six to 44%. Bill Shorten is respectively up two to 37% and down one to 50%, and his deficit as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 45-34 to 43-35. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1646.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,075 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 7 of 62
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  1. “I think Labor would be worried if Bishop were to be drafted.”

    I don’t think there’d be too much worry if Labor pushed the messages:

    “Do you honestly think Tony Abbott, Eric Abetz, Peter Dutton and otehr hard right warriors will not be plotting to bring down whoever the moderate-centralist libs put in place as PM? They will not rest until they have control of the liberal party and turn it into even more of a radical hard-right party”

    “Many thought Malcolm Turnbull would bring the liberal party back to sensible centre and act on Climate Change, investment in renewable energy, marriage equality and humane treatment of refugees – and we all know how that ended”.

  2. Late Riser:

    [“Trend is your friend”]

    No doubting that, a trend that has been recorded in the major polls since it became obvious that Mal’s pact with reactionary elements left him painted into a corner.

  3. Observer: “So how relevant is the Grattan Institute?

    Simply, they do not have the answer and never will have

    Time to take advice from elsewhere”

    If only Labor had adopted that attitude in relation to its tax policies.

  4. Bishop before the election?
    Another set of Liberal KillPM transaction costs?
    Labor would be more than happy to continue to stand by while the Liberals commit political hari kiri.

  5. I think the glee about last night’s Newspoll isn’t about it being a big movement – it isn’t – but rather the fact that the apparent tightening (or widening, in the case of Morrison’s netsats and PPM) of the last few weeks seemingly being over, with things driftng in the other direction once again.

  6. bill grant:

    [‘I don’t think there’d be too much worry if Labor pushed the messages:’]

    I think that’s a reasonable message.

    Why the extreme right holds sway in the Tory Party amazes me given they’re such a rump, small in number.

  7. Maybe they can give the entire frontbench a shot at being PM. One every couple of weeks until they finally get one people actually like.

  8. zoomster: “ScoMo wasn’t a popular choice – he has little personal backing. If they decide they can’t win with him (and are still delusional enough to think that what they’re selling isn’t at fault, it’s just the salesperson…) then it makes sense to replace him as soon as possible. My infinite faith in the government’s ability to f*ck things up means I think there’s room for at least one more leadership change.”

    It’s possible that there are still some of the more ideologically-driven right wing backbenchers who would be interpreting the bad polling as evidence that the shift to Morrison hasn’t solved their problem and that what the so-called “base” are crying out for is Dutton or (gulp) even a return to Abbott.

    But I doubt very much that there would be enough of these to cause a leadership change. What I expect to happen instead is a gradual ramping up of pressure on Morrison to adopt the right’s agenda: in particular, to pull out of the Paris Agreement and do something big and symbolic in the immigration area.

  9. Robert Fisk on Khashoggi and his murder.

    Jamal Khashoggi knew all about power and danger. Almost a quarter of a century ago, he turned up at my hotel in Khartoum and drove me into the Sudanese desert to meet Osama bin Laden……………………Even when he was an adviser to the Royal Family and an editor and journalist in Saudi Arabia, he spoke about the “facts of life” as he would call them. Talking privately, he would dismiss all rumours of a palace revolution in the Kingdom. But he always talked about the cynicism and venality of the western powers who propped up the Arab regimes and then destroyed them if they did not obey, ..

    https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/khashoggi-latest-saudi-arabia-murder-yemen-consulate-istanbul-turkey-mecca-a8600886.html

  10. ItzaDream: “I think Morrison saying he didn’t apply for the job is really really stupid, no surprise there. Apart from being a bald faced lie, to play the reluctant recruit, all cutesy wutesy, gives the message, to the few remaining nongs who care, of unpreparedness and learning on the job. All of which is true of course, apart from the learning bit, but thanks again for underlining it.”

    Morrison’s propensity to keep on doing this must be causing his media advisors to tear their hair out!

    Your own assessment of yourself has a significant influence on people’s judgment of you. By continually telling the public that he shouldn’t really be there, Morrison is shaping what appears to be an increasingly negative image.

    Politicians need to project self-confidence at all times, even if they are genuinely feeling inadequate.

  11. I think Labor would be worried if Bishop were to be drafted.

    Maybe if she had replaced Turnbull, but not if she were to roll Morrison just months after the same happened to Turnbull in very contentious circumstances. Jesus Christ would have trouble turning things around in such a situation.

    Bishop’s certainly more highly regarded and politically competent than many of the other current mob of leadership contenders in the Liberal party, but she’s no star candidate in the way Turnbull was in 2015 either. If she were to win from opposition or take over in more palatable circumstances (ie. her
    predecessor stepped down after several terms), she could well win up being quite popular and electorally successful, but not if she were to become PM before the next election. The only way that could negatively impact the Labor party is if they were unable to get any work done due to laughing too hard.

  12. Boerwar

    Yes, Bishop in the job is sure to see all the Monkey Podders put away their ideological knuckle dusters and start singing kumbaya .

  13. “Why the extreme right holds sway in the Tory Party amazes me given they’re such a rump, small in number.”

    Answer: Murdoch, IPA, Quadrant, and mining and corporate sponsorship that has the aim of destroying government and democracy as a rival source of power and thinks Ayn Rand has the prescription for the perfect society. And the fact that they are fanatics that play much harder than others – I think less loony MPs cave into ideological extremists knowing the loons will keep going and wreck the joint if they don’t get their way, and the moderates and party will have less short-term political grief to give in. Abbott is the equivalent of a man in a bomb-vest with his thumb on a deadman’s switch – he’d rather take the whole joint with him than give in. Thankfully it looks as though they will.

  14. Bill Browder‏Verified account @Billbrowder

    This is horrifying if true. According to the @dailyexpressuk British intelligence knew about the Saudi plot to go after Jamal Khashoggi THREE weeks before the Saudis killed but failed to warm him.

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1037378/Khashoggi-murder-news-saudi-arabia-chemical-weapons-use

    Louise Mensch‏Verified account @LouiseMensch

    Replying to @Billbrowder @dailyexpressuk

    We warned the NSA.

    The intelligence was sensitive and might have betrayed sources and methods and endangered national security, including America’s. Khashoggi is a US person and Britain told the US.

    He wasn’t warned and nothing was done because Trump personally refused to act on our warning.

    John Schindler‏Verified account @20committee

    It’s true.

    GCHQ had TS/SI intercepts of internal Saudi comms detailing at least some of the Khashoggi plot. Per #FVEY practice, these were shared with NSA.

    Also, NSA had its own SIGINT saying much the same. Trump WH knew.

    As I told y’all weeks ago….

    John

    NSA: White House Knew ‘Disappeared’ Saudi Dissident Was In Danger. Why Didn’t They Protect Him?

    https://observer.com/2018/10/nsa-source-white-house-knew-jamal-khashoggi-danger/

  15. Malcolm in the Middle

    Scott Morrison has brushed off his descent into negative personal polling territory in today’s Newspoll after Malcolm Turnbull liked a tweet showing the Prime Minister’s numbers going down.

    For the first time in his nine weeks as prime minister, Mr Morrison’s dissatisfaction ratings are bigger than his satisfaction ratings at 44 per cent of voters disapproving of his performance compared to 41 per cent approving.

    Malcolm Turnbull’s twitter account ‘likes’ the latest Newspoll results. Source: Twitter

  16. Barnaby Joyce’s political resurrection faces a new threat with National Farmers’ Federation president Fiona Simson being urged to run as an independent in the seat of New England.

    The first female president of the NFF, Ms Simson could force Mr Joyce to fight for his seat as he plots a return to the Nationals’ leadership.

    Her potential candidacy has been discussed by crossbench independent MP Cathy McGowan and former independent Tony Windsor.

    Ms Simson has been repeatedly courted to enter politics, but has made no decisions, with Labor predicting it would be a “big call” to run against Mr Joyce.

    If she decides to run, Ms Simson would join the growing ranks of female independent candidates. They include Kerryn Phelps, who won the former safe Liberal seat of Wentworth, left vacant after Malcolm Turnbull’s was deposed as prime minister.

    The New Daily understands Liberal MP Julia Banks is also in talks with independents about whether she will stand for re-election as an independent in the Victorian seat of Chisholm after quitting the Liberals at the end of her current term.

    Ms Simson is a high-profile supporter of Catherine Marriott, whose accusations of sexual harassment forced Mr Joyce to quit the Nationals leadership in February.

    Underlining her support, Ms Marriott was in Canberra last week as master of ceremonies at an event for the Nationals Farmers’ Federation.

    Ms Marriott was also seen dining with deputy Labor leader Tanya Plibersek.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/10/29/fiona-simson-challenge-barnaby-joyce/

  17. Tony Windsor

    Fiona Simson has not spoken with me about standing for Parliament as this article suggests . If she did run in New England she would win .

  18. sustainable future

    Abbott is the equivalent of a man in a bomb-vest with his thumb on a deadman’s switch

    When morrison started talking about ‘muppets’ someone came up with the perfect one to be Abbott “Crazy Harry”.

  19. Late Riser says:
    Monday, October 29, 2018 at 10:17 am
    Don, sorry, things are working fine for me. (Win 10, either Opera or Chrome) But I log in using a password. Also if it helps you figure it out, your avatar has not appeared in your recent posts.

    _________________

    Yes it has, the poster Don has just started posting, my moniker is don, and my avatar is appearing.
    I wish that wordpress had a filter so that this would not happen – I think that the Adrians had a similar problem.

    don

  20. Sustainable Future is right. Look at the CVs of many of the right wing nut MPs in the Liberal party. Some have been sustained for their entire working life by a series of well paid sinecures, building them up to the point they can launch a bid for Canberra. Eventually they get over the line. Whereas moderates like Banks were too busy building a normal career before entering politics, and then in a marginal seat.

    IT is the same in Labor, with those coming through union officialdom having a far easier ride into office, in a much safer seat, than rank and file party members with real jobs. End result, the proportion of the former rises over time, even as union membership is falling in real terms. That is not to say there are not some very good unions, but the point is they are over-represented, as are the RW cultural warriors. They are the two halves of Australia’s political establishment.

  21. simon holmes à court

    @simonahac

    5 hours ago
    Replying to @lenoretaylor

    i’ve invited @rowandean to meet with actual climate scientists for a briefing. he’s not interested.

  22. don @ #320 Monday, October 29th, 2018 – 12:08 pm

    Late Riser says:
    Monday, October 29, 2018 at 10:17 am
    Don, sorry, things are working fine for me. (Win 10, either Opera or Chrome) But I log in using a password. Also if it helps you figure it out, your avatar has not appeared in your recent posts.

    _________________

    Yes it has, the poster Don has just started posting, my moniker is don, and my avatar is appearing.
    I wish that wordpress had a filter so that this would not happen – I think that the Adrians had a similar problem.

    don

    I thought it might be something like that when you asked “Don” to pick a different label. Sorry for the confusion.

  23. sustainable future:

    Yes, I’m well aware of what you say. But even with all their powerful patrons/donars, surely their imperative is to remain in power; they won’t if they don’t distance themselves from the influences you cite.

    Abbott, for instance, said today (wwtte) that Nauru is great place to live; whereas, a poll out today records some 80% wanting refugees to be taken off this so-called island paradise.

    They’ve obviously learnt little from Wentworth.

  24. “Never have I seen so much glee at a well-within-MOE 2PP change.”

    if the change was in the other direction the libs and right-wing media would be crowing.

    the real news is the drop in scumo’s popularity – well outside MoE. The electorate is on to him.

  25. A quick question for knowledgeable SA bludgers – LG elections. How do you find out the party affiliation of LG election candidates? I live in City of Burnside which I suspect is crawling with Liberals, but they do not tell you. A few Council conflicts have hit the papers in recent years, but insufficient details are reported to identify who was responsible.

    For example, in my area there are lots of posters up for re-electing Cr Henry Davis, a young chap with a very blue suit on a professionally printed poster that almost screams “Liberal Party”. Anyone know the affiliations of the rest of the Councillors and mayor? How about Graham Bils or Lance Bagster?

  26. Victoria says: Monday, October 29, 2018 at 1:28 pm

    PhoenixRed

    As reported by john Schindler last week.
    The 64.000 question remains why didn’t the WH warn khasshogi

    **************************************************

    Yes indeed Victoria – John /Louise ahead of the MSM as usual – it is most disturbing as to why they let it happen ???

    The whole Trump Crime Family is so hooked up to the Saudis ….. $$$$$$ ….. best not to upset that cosy relationship

  27. briefly @ #285 Monday, October 29th, 2018 – 11:52 am

    ItzaDream says:
    Monday, October 29, 2018 at 11:25 am
    I think Morrison saying he didn’t apply for the job is really really stupid, no surprise there.

    It’s essentially an insult to voters. No-one should be PM unless they actually want the job. He’s either being disingenuous or he doesn’t deserve the post.

    morrison apes a significant amount of trump’s approach and is doing it more and more accompanied by that smug FIGJAM expression on his face.

    He seems think he can motor mouth himself out of anything, but the clocks ticking and many in his coalition can see themselves looking for new employment pretty soon.

    They don’t give a stuff about our country or our people.

  28. phoenixRED

    That the NSA knew and questions as to why they did not warn him came out very quickly and just as quickly disappeared. No mention at the time of Trump. Given Khashoggi’s inside knowledge I would have thought the NSA had e a 100 ways to get around what Trump wanted and get a warning to him. Who knows what is what in secret squirrel world ?

    MbS stepped on a lot of palace toes and extorted $billions from various princes. Perhaps it was a set up from inside the palace to get MbS out of the way, he may yet be removed. Or a way for some player seeking to derail what was starting to look like a march to war with Iran.


  29. poroti says:
    Monday, October 29, 2018 at 12:58 pm

    Boerwar

    Yes, Bishop in the job is sure to see all the Monkey Podders put away their ideological knuckle dusters and start singing kumbaya .

    Exactly.

    The Liberals have had one go at having a popular leader to cover up their problems; that worked out well!

  30. Steve Schmidt has been succinctly expressing where things are at in Trump’s America
    And it isn’t pretty.
    The lastest carnage at the synagogue is absolutely horrible

  31. poroti @ #333 Monday, October 29th, 2018 – 12:33 pm

    Perhaps it was a set up from inside the palace to get MbS out of the way, he may yet be removed. Or a way for some player seeking to derail what was starting to look like a march to war with Iran.

    You mean, actual rogue killers? Nah. Never happened. If it had Trump would’ve blamed something else because he’s physically incapable of saying accurate things.

  32. Victoria says: Monday, October 29, 2018 at 1:36 pm

    PhoenixRed

    Louise M had already posited a theory on her blog at time of killing.

    ********************************************************

    …… and a fair bit of speculation about CesarSayoc – did he act alone or have help with his pipe bomb packages ????? ( cant have a conspiracy in the US can we )

  33. Macron slams calls to halt arms sales to Saudi as populist

    Well of course Macron the neoliberal flimflam man wants to continue arms sales to Saudi Arabia. He has never been big on bringing public purpose to the tasks of government. As long as wages get suppressed and worker protections get eviscerated, that freeze-dried smile will continue to contort that boyish face.

  34. I see that Landline is promoting a milliner who uses found native bird bird feathers.
    It is a criminal act to pick up, hold, transport using the post, to export without a licence, and/or to sell native bird feathers.
    YOU DON’T HAVE TO KILL THE BIRD TO COMMIT THE CRIME.

  35. Macron may be right on that particular point. It would be amazing if punishing a country for killing and dismembering a journalist after they’ve been caught red-handed didn’t have strong popular support. So of course it’s “populist”.

    Trump’s populism is wrong not because it’s populist, but because it’s based in discrimination and racism and goes against the core principles of the nation. Suspending arms sales to Saudi Arabia is/does none of that.

    Macron is doing a Trump-style false-equivalence argument.

  36. If the Libs give Bishop the top job, Labor would fall about laughing. The only hope of that working would be if they called an election and then changed leaders. Honeymoon would be a week. If they were lucky.

  37. ar

    The ‘rogue’ bit might merely have involved making sure the murder was discovered not the actual murder.

    He took something like $100 billion from the princes and used torture with at least 1 death. Humiliation so many of the great and the good sure gotta leave you with some very well connected enemies.

  38. Thanks for the link of the analysis of Abbott’s article ven.
    As you say Abbott with Turnbull gone and the by-election done, is now a self deputising sherrif on patrol.
    There is no way he will allow another moderate as leader.

    Also when referring to Labor he repeats another line, on the principle that if you say it enough times people will believe it.

    That is: fear of ‘the most left wing ALP government in history’

  39. People seems to have forgotten the mess that J Bishop made of her time as Shadow Treasurer. She may be OK in the PR job of Foreign Affairs but she clearly demonstrated that she was not capable of handling anything complex.

  40. Boerwar

    I thought at first the feathers were dyed domestic chicken, but more pics showed that was not so. I can’t believe the lady would be receiving hundreds of feathers for no reward. Too much temptation to kill the birds. 🙁

  41. Peter Stanton

    I don’t think anyone here has forgotten that. The problem is, with all her undoubted failings, she’s still probably the best they have to offer.

  42. John Reidy

    Every time I read the line about “the most left wing Labor government in history” I almost fall about laughing.

    The current Labor party is hardly left wing … but then again if you are out there on the lunar right as so many Liberals and their media cheerleaders are anything else is left wing.

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