Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

A bad Newspoll for the Liberals, made worse by a sharp deterioration in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings.

The latest Newspoll has Labor’s lead up again after a period of moderating results since the leadership upheaval, the two-party lead now at 54-46, compared with 53-47 in the poll a fortnight ago. Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 39%, while the Coalition is down one to 36%, the Greens are down two to 9%, and One Nation are steady on 6%. Still more worrying for the Liberals is a reversal of the tide in favour of Scott Morrison, who records his first net negative personal ratings to date, with approval down four to 41% and disapproval up six to 44%. Bill Shorten is respectively up two to 37% and down one to 50%, and his deficit as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 45-34 to 43-35. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1646.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,075 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

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  2. BK
    “I do doubt that Labor would be as policy rich and as unified as they are now if Albo had got the job.”

    I agree with BK. We tend to focus too much on Shorten’s shortcomings and Albanese’s (perceived) strengths, rather than the other way round (for both).

  4. In August 2008 the Australian Treasury published a report entitled Architecture of Australia’s Tax and Transfer system. Pages 291 to 304 outline the nature of state and local taxes, the limitations and problems with those taxes, and the nature of fiscal relations between the Commonwealth and the states.

    Some of the key points:

    The state governments’ revenues comprise state tax revenues, other own-source revenues (non-tax revenues such as user charges for government-provided services, dividends from government-owned enterprises, interest income, resource royalties and charges, fines etc), GST revenue (an untied grant from the federal government), and specific purpose payments (tied grants from the federal government).

    The High Court has interpreted the Commonwealth Constitution in a way that prevents the states from imposing broad consumption taxes. Consequently, the states use specific transaction taxes instead.

    Transaction taxes (a tax on a good changing hands) are economically inefficient because they discourage a good from changing hands even when the good would be used more efficiently if someone else owned it. Another inefficiency of transaction taxes is that by reducing the turnover of a good they impair the process of price discovery in the market.

    Transaction taxes such as conveyancing duties are subject to large fluctuations based on conditions in the property market, which reduces their reliability as a source of revenue.

    It is difficult to manage the equity impacts of narrowly based transaction taxes because the tax might apply to goods for which the turnover rate is highest among low income earners. Exemptions can mitigate this problem but exemptions also increase the complexity of the tax.

    Interstate tax competition erodes state tax bases and results in wasted tax breaks to induce firms to move to a state when they were going to move to the state anyway because the state provides proximity to desired markets and a workforce with the mix of skills that the firm needs. Furthermore, businesses that arrive because of tax breaks can be offset by businesses that leave because they are attracted by another state’s tax breaks. So in net terms a state might be no better off.

    When the federal government provides tied grants (i.e. grants with conditions attached) this worsens the problem of blame-shifting between the federal and state governments and it obscures who is responsible for what. Voters might blame the state government for a poorly designed program when it was actually the federal government that insisted on that design.

    State land taxes are riddled with exemptions (land used for primary production, land used for principal place of residence) and high tax free thresholds that reduce their effectiveness to raise revenue and encourage optimal use of land.

    http://taxreview.treasury.gov.au/content/downloads/report/architecture_of_australias_tax_and_transfer_system_revised.pdf

  6. Michael A should start suing all you guys.

    All you guys? Do you mean All y’all or All y’all’s?

    “Y’all is singular. All y’all is plural. All y’all’s is plural possessive.”
    K Friedman.

  7. Everything will be fixed by the MMT, the UBI, the UJG, the Pipple’s Bank, Getting Rid of Our Armed Forces altogether, stopping use of GMOs altogether, and closing down all mining, transportation and export of uranium, including Olympic Dam which constitutes somewhere between 5-10% of SA’s GDP. Coal ditto.
    The resultant capital strike and flight void will be filled by click money.
    There will always be zero per cent interest rates and zero per cent inflation rates.
    You know this makes sense.
    Vote 1 Greens.

  8. Hockey did implement a crackdown in 2015 on breaches of existing foreign ownership rules.

    “There has been no enforcement and no successful order for at least the last 20 years,” Mr Hockey said.

    “We have taken this decision to ensure that there is integrity in the investment regime, and that those people who unlawfully hold Australian residential real estate are caught.”

    https://www.domain.com.au/news/joe-hockey-reveals-investigation-into-1-billion-worth-of-foreignowned-real-estate-20150916-gjno59/

  10. I had become accustomed to being addressed as ‘Hi’ in emails, etc., and use it myself.
    However, I now find ‘Hey, lizzie’ at the top of emails.

    It’s going to take a while for me to get used to this one, as to me Hey is shouted to attract someone’s attention, or to show surprise, interest, or annoyance, eg “Hey, that’s my chair you’re sitting on.”

    I see from my reading that its use as ‘hello’ has spread from the southern states of America.

    Still seems slightly rude, to me. No doubt I’ll adapt eventually. 🙂

  11. Zeh

    Yes investment strategy from China could be a factor

    I think there were some changes to the way overseas buyers could bid, but i am not sure

  12. lizzie @ #2610 Friday, November 2nd, 2018 – 10:24 am

    I had become accustomed to being addressed as ‘Hi’ in emails, etc., and use it myself.
    However, I now find ‘Hey, lizzie’ at the top of emails.

    It’s going to take a while for me to get used to this one, as to me Hey is shouted to attract someone’s attention, or to show surprise, interest, or annoyance, eg “Hey, that’s my chair you’re sitting on.”

    I see from my reading that its use as ‘hello’ has spread from the southern states of America.

    Still seems slightly rude, to me. No doubt I’ll adapt eventually. 🙂

    I agree. As a graduate I had a mentor who absolutely hammered me on the use of proper etiquette in emails. The informativeness of emails really bothers me now.

  15. Kakuru @ #2536 Friday, November 2nd, 2018 – 11:27 am

    “Bill Shorten’s advice to exam sitting students described as glib and ‘terribly unhelpful’.
    https://www.mamamia.com.au/bill-shorten-news/”

    Unlike Nath, I’m not all that familiar with Mama Mia. Are all its articles as snide and catty as this effort?

    Yes. It’s editor is a Liberal partisan. Mia Freedman had a relatively notorious bust-up with Wendy Harmer over the political direction Mamma Mia was taking.

  16. Unlike the Kavanaugh proceedings, I am reluctant to post about the Rush defamation case. But a small l.e.d. just went off in my head. I remembered the Chris Gayle defamation case almost exactly a year ago where Fairfax published an account given to them by the West Indian cricket team masseuse that Gayle had exposed himself to her.

    Gayle won even tho the woman gave evidence to back up the fairfax stories. Fairfax was found to have acted in malice in its reporting.

  17. Still seems slightly rude, to me. No doubt I’ll adapt eventually.

    After recently viewing Fry and Laurie’s “Wooster and Jeeves”, I intend to use “What, ho!” as the preferred greeting! 🙂

  19. Albo strikes me as a lightweight media groupie. Had he been elected Labor leader in 2013, I doubt he’d still be leader now.

  20. Would love to get your opinion – I really have a strong feeling that over the next few Newspolls we are going to start seeing the emergence of Bill Shorten in the preferred Prime Minister stakes?

  23. I really think we are going to start to see the emergence of Bill Shorten in the preferred Prime Minister stakes in Newspoll over the next few weeks. What is everyone’s though?

  24. I intend to use “What, ho!” as the preferred greeting!

    A local radio personality (in somewhat advancing age) likes to greet listeners with a sharp….
    HI HO… Everybody!
    Drives me to drink it does. WTF happened to ‘good evening’! The world has gone to pot!
    Globalisation, expensive barbers with TV screens showing American sports, kiddies with no respect…. need i go on?

  25. Re Lizzie @1:42PM. A journalist on the Government’s “enemies” list employed by an organisation it wants to sell off or shut down critices a “Liberal” mate. No doubt the article will be scrutinised word by word and if there’s so much as a comma out of place an official complaint will be laid.

  26. Reply SK @1:49PM. That was Bob Rogers’ greeting (or something like that). Apparently he’s still on Sydney Easy Listening 2CH. He is now 91.

  27. Reply SK @1:49PM. That was Bob Rogers’ greeting (or something like that). Apparently he’s still on Sydney Easy Listening 2CH. He is now 91.

    It gets worse! So Peter Goers stole it?

  28. Simon² Katich® @ #2616 Friday, November 2nd, 2018 – 1:36 pm

    Unlike the Kavanaugh proceedings, I am reluctant to post about the Rush defamation case. But a small l.e.d. just went off in my head. I remembered the Chris Gayle defamation case almost exactly a year ago where Fairfax published an account given to them by the West Indian cricket team masseuse that Gayle had exposed himself to her.

    Gayle won even tho the woman gave evidence to back up the fairfax stories. Fairfax was found to have acted in malice in its reporting.

    That was L.E.D I hope, and not I.E.D

  29. mimhoff says:
    Friday, November 2, 2018 at 1:08 pm
    Michael A should start suing all you guys.
    —————————————

    Why? Flushing out the apologists for the rich and powerful shutting down criticism of their shortcomings in defence of their wealth and privilege is compensation enough.

  30. Sohar @ #2618 Friday, November 2nd, 2018 – 1:40 pm

    Albo strikes me as a lightweight media groupie. Had he been elected Labor leader in 2013, I doubt he’d still be leader now.

    I doubt Labor would be leading in the polls now. He would have been sliced and diced mercilessly by the Coalition, Sky Lunatics After Dark and the Murdoch media would have turned on him over some completely confected issue.

  31. From “The Age”

    “Retirees vent anger at Labor plan”

    “The unusual parliamentary Inquiry has received more that 240 submissions and while many are critical of the proposed windback, some are from people who currently benefit from the tax credit and argue that a change would be fair”

    “Frydenberg ordered the probe into opposition policy in September despite inquiries historically being reserved for government policy or broad areas of reform”

    Meanwhile I wonder the progress of WAM advertising for 200,000 signatures – to benefit their Shareholders?

    Meanwhile NAB Shares are at $25.17, having been a “good buy” at $36- including to take advantage of the combination of Franking credits and having no tax liability – so wealth down 30%

    And the NAB outlook being where it is, hence the fall today despite the performance unveiled

    With 240 submissions and (even) 200,000 signatures where is leverage and opinion?

    Except people bemoaning their loss of wealth?

    Diversity, compounding and having no debt

    And living within your means – not on unearned handouts

  36. #WeatheronPB. Sunny, windy and 35-38 across Sydney. Fire danger was upgraded to ‘Severe’ late this morning with a total fire ban in place.

  37. C@tmomma@2:07pm
    As if they are not already doing against Shorten.

    It is a different matter whether Albanese would have coped like Shorten. IMO, he would have resigned from parliament sighting family reasons.

  38. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/02/once-again-the-daily-telegraph-prefers-a-culture-war-to-facts?CMP=share_btn_tw

    I have recently been involved in working on a project that aims to provide teachers with some insights and elaborations on how to teach the mandated science outcomes in the Australian National Curriculum by using historic and contemporary examples from Indigenous people and communities.

    The work combined various Indigenous and non-Indigenous scientists, science educators, curriculum experts, teachers, academics and editors. It looked at examples of traditional land management practices, understandings of chemical reactions and processes, astronomy, medicines and any number of fascinating topics of how Indigenous peoples have worked scientifically for millennia in Australia, and still do. It was a great project to be a part of.

    I was quietly hoping this important project would fly under the radar of the ongoing culture wars that exist within Australia, but it seems that was wishful thinking.

    It began with a piece on the Daily Telegraph website titled “Fire starting and spear throwing make national science curriculum”. Not quite unfortunately, it would be great if they were though.

    I can see how it makes for a better headline though. “Fire starting and spear thrower are two examples of 95 different optional elaborations that teachers can use to help them meet the mandatory outcomes of the National Science Curriculum if they want to” doesn’t quite have the same ring to it.

    “I can’t fathom the hubris required to think that after 60,000 years or so of being in Australia, Indigenous people wouldn’t have picked up a thing or two that the rest of the world could learn from.”

  42. How on Earth can it be reasonable to give self-funded retirees or anyone else refunds on tax they didn’t (and weren’t required to) pay.

    Dividend imputation was a measure to avoid double taxation on company profits. Basically, a company makes a profit and pays company tax on any amount it can’t hide through various accounting tricks. So far so good, the company has met its obligations.

    Then, a shareholder receiving a dividend can claim tax the company has already paid on the profit behind the dividend against their own income. If the imputation credit is less than their income, they get the lot. Otherwise, they end up paying no tax. Seems fair to me. They aren’t entitled to any more.

  43. Preferred PM for the general population is confusing and unimportant.
    For example, would you prefer Scummo or Turnbull. MT is gone so thats easy. What about TA. No he’s had his go and we dont want another PM rolled. What about Shorten – don’t want an election so not him.
    What is important is the primary vote of the 2 majors. The day Labor takes over we will see preferred PM rocket up the ladder.
    As Wayne or Nath would say, Shorten will prove to be a great leader with an unbelievable majority and will lead our Nation until at least 2030.

  44. mikehilliard
    says:
    Friday, November 2, 2018 at 2:21 pm
    Isn’t Mama Mia a rag for Sydney’s eastern suburbs wannabe hippy girls?
    _________________________________
    Now you are seriously turning me on. 🙂

  45. What you posted is OK instead of posting implying ‘what a bitch she is’or ‘what a fraud he is ‘

    Yeah. Despite the importance of the issue of harassment in the workplace, I kinda tuned out to this one long ago. I am not fond of actors in general, add the Daily Tele and lots of lawyers to it and you get shit soup with a sprinkle of arsenic.

    I pity the Judge who has to drink it.

  46. Given the attention given to the Rush v Murdoch

    Where is the commentary on Roberts-Smith and the interventions of Nelson and Stokes (who is not only AWM Chair and who dictates our pm should be but is also Roberts-Smith’s employer)?

    Roberts-Smith has an action against Fairfax

    Nelson and Stokes should resign their positions at the AWM – or be relieved of those positions

    How the other half live, hey?

    Fairfax relies on truth as its defence

  47. Ven says:
    Friday, November 2, 2018 at 2:20 pm
    C@tmomma@2:07pm
    As if they are not already doing against Shorten.
    —————————————

    That might be C@tmomma’s point. The haters would have hated on Albo just as much as they are hating on Shorten. So, alternative-universe fantasies about “Albo as leader” are a waste of time as far as “better for Labor” wishes are concerned.

    I would add that, with Bill Shorten, we are getting a much higher quality leader as far as both core Labor values and sound policy development are concerned. So, for no more political pain than we would have had under Albo, we’re getting a much better impending Government. Good deal!

  49. Ross Cameron said some racist shit about Chinese people. I always thought Ross was the less crazy one of the Dean/Cameron dynamic duo but there you go.

  50. Observer @ #2630 Friday, November 2nd, 2018 – 11:08 am

    From “The Age”

    “Retirees vent anger at Labor plan”

    “The unusual parliamentary Inquiry has received more that 240 submissions and while many are critical of the proposed windback, some are from people who currently benefit from the tax credit and argue that a change would be fair”

    “Frydenberg ordered the probe into opposition policy in September despite inquiries historically being reserved for government policy or broad areas of reform”

    240 submissions on a change that significantly effects so many people? Labor have nothing to worry about here in terms of voter backlash. Most of the 240 were probably L/NP members.

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