The latest Newspoll has Labor’s lead up again after a period of moderating results since the leadership upheaval, the two-party lead now at 54-46, compared with 53-47 in the poll a fortnight ago. Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 39%, while the Coalition is down one to 36%, the Greens are down two to 9%, and One Nation are steady on 6%. Still more worrying for the Liberals is a reversal of the tide in favour of Scott Morrison, who records his first net negative personal ratings to date, with approval down four to 41% and disapproval up six to 44%. Bill Shorten is respectively up two to 37% and down one to 50%, and his deficit as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 45-34 to 43-35. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1646.
I do wonder how well Labor would be polling at the moment if Anthony Albanese was leader.
Have the members of BorderForce gone feral or are they just stoopid?
https://www.smh.com.au/national/bloody-devastated-family-members-of-aviation-pioneer-have-citizenship-challenged-20181101-p50dgl.html?btis
So, Gippslander, on one hand it is OK for the Liberal Party (as the government) to play the eligibility card and use its numbers to refer or threaten to refer ALP members, but not their own with question marks over them BUT on the other hand the public are “over it” so now forget it?
OK for one side but not the other?
Alexander and Joyce were obvious and “fessed up” as having taken no action.
The defence of those ALP members referred was that they were aware and had taken steps, steps the High Court ruled on as not satisfactory changing the ground rules on “reasonable steps”.
And the High Court will so rule.
The government no longer has the numbers in the House – so the ground has shifted again.
And in regard referrals where there is question.
I note the Liberal Party is raising the S44 issue in regards the Candidate for Bennelong (so they persist with S44 as an issue, which is also telling in regards “over it so move on” and one side versus the other)
S44 has been an issue that has been to the High Court previously, and the politicians did not respond.
The politicians have not responded to the latest rulings of the High Court.
So, S44 remains and now with black and white High Court rulings.
If you put “fair for one, fair for the other”, referrals may well be accepted with “blame”, if it is a “blame” game, apportioned to those who sit in the parliament and not compliant (noting the “black and white” recent rulings so should self refer even with – an acceptable – defence that the most recent rulings of the High Court have changed previously held perceptions.
By raising S44 in regard the candidate for Bennelong and calling for him to table his advice (no doubt to be attacked as unsatisfactory), the Liberal Party puts itself in a very dangerous and compromised position given it no longer has the numbers in the House.
Again a sign of a dysfunctional government.
@Observer
I agree this government is totally dysfunctional, however they are polling relatively well in-spite of that. Scott Morrison for all his flaws, he somebody who can be seen as having hands that not been blooded. Shorten on the other hand you can’t say that.
Thanks Expat 😀 Yep, that article was total shite. Doesn’t reflect well on Mia herself, whom i previously had nothing against.
Michael A
I suspect Jessie Stephens is both privileged enough to have the backing to splash resources on investment properties, and grasping enough to have the ardent desire to scoop up as much property as she can
_______________________________
At least I know when I am being ridiculous.
Observer says:
Friday, November 2, 2018 at 11:42 am
So, Gippslander, on one hand it is OK for the Liberal Party (as the government) to play the eligibility card and use its numbers to refer or threaten to refer ALP members, but not their own with question marks over them BUT on the other hand the public are “over it” so now forget it?
Observer, the Liberals think the electorate are as stupid as they are. They routinely insult the intelligence of voters….which is one reason why they are held in such low regard.
The Coaltion’s approach to matters of citizenship and welfare recipients is an ‘interesting’ contrast to their approach to corporate regulation and in dealing with corporate malfeasance and tax evasion.
The best political move for Labor in the Crewther case is to call on the GOVERNMENT to refer him to the High Court and then to characterise their failure to do so as cowardice (accurately).
That way they escape the odium of being blamed for bringing on a by-election but still get all the political benefit.
Thanks, Kevin Johnstone. I meant that it serves everyone’s interest – including Rush – to have a proper finding of guilt or innocence before people spout off with such judgements.
Touché, regarding your last sentence. But I am not demanding tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars from you – just a correction. I still think media outlets ought to be held to strict standards in reporting. I just think an arbitrarily-applied “threat of defamation proceedings” is about the worst way of achieving that.
Shhhhh. People might catch on.
“Observer, the Liberals think the electorate are as stupid as they are. “
Maybe they think so because they keep getting elected.
Herald Sun’s @rharris334 tweets
If history tells us anything about Section 44 it’s that when a party’s leader says they’re confident an MP has no issues, it means it’s more than likely they have major issues.
nath says:
Friday, November 2, 2018 at 11:45 am
At least I know when I am being ridiculous.
—————————————
I hoped you’d catch that note !
Michael A says:
Friday, November 2, 2018 at 10:55 am
kevjohnno says:
Friday, November 2, 2018 at 10:44 am
“So I think the opinions of Rush posted Nicholas, Michael A etc are baseless & unfair.”
—————————————
Please cite 1 post of mine, with a copy and paste of the quote, where I make any judgement on Geoffrey Rush’s guilt or innocence.
No worries Mike A:
[Michael A says:
Thursday, November 1, 2018 at 10:42 am
zoomster says:
Thursday, November 1, 2018 at 10:34 am
Michael A
We have criminal courts to deal with those behaviours.
—————————————
Yes. And I would love to see the likes of Rush answer properly for their conduct in such courts.]
Anticipating your response that you have not made any judgment of the guilt or innocence of Rush’s behaviour, just that you want it to be answered for in criminal courts. Complete tosh.
Your decision to have Rush prosecuted in a criminal court IS a judgment that IN YOUR OPINION he has a case to answer beyond reasonable doubt for his behaviour.
@charliearchy tweets
Some things just call for a screenshot and an “lol.” https://twitter.com/charliearchy/status/1054485469059117058/photo/1
Antonbruckner @ 10.21
Very true
Bushfire
Surely you have seen the Sting.
Surely you understand grooming.
It is unsurprising that Norvill’s understanding of what happened has changed over time. It is very common.
In a true Sting the target never gets to become aware that they have been stung.
Grooming and assault is a sting. Kid victims especially and often older ones as well over time change their undersanding of what happened. It ranges from “it was my fault” through “it was no big deal” to “the bastard!”
This is the product of later understanding of the event which can change as a tedult of ongoing contemplation, or education, or counselling, or discussion with confidents etc
You soliloq
Re Crewther, there probably won’t be a by-election. The House won’t be sitting again until Monday November 26. The earliest possible by-election date if called virtually immediately would be December 29 – that’s not going to happen. So we are likely into early March, with the real election just 10 weeks away.
G. I like the screenshot.
People who whinge about the ‘left’ pushing them away seem to want to join a club rather than vote for a reasonably sensible and responsible political party.
The Liberals Trumpifcation of Australian politics continues apace.
After the Liberals are decimated in Victorian state election Morrison will double down on the basis they aren’t right wing enough .
Sets visit for Trump being organised now.
Hopefully the next federal election sees the Liberals also decimated, if not I’m leaving for an Adriatic island.
Murdoch reporting.
Lindy Chamberlain?
At that time, a highly leveraged Murdoch Balance Sheet and dysfunctional business model was under very severe pressure, and circulation courtesy of the reporting of the Chamberlain increased to alleviate that pressure.
The Murdoch media had Chamberlain guilty.
This was far removed from Rohan Rivett and the Stewart Thevenard conviction, when Murdoch had credibility.
Unemployment.
I can tell you for a fact that the growth in private debt in Australia from 2000 until the impact of the GFC (our home mortgage debt up 350% to $1.226 Trillion) was the major concern in the response to the GFC – in that that private debt obligation needed to be serviced by those who owed those amounts because, if it was not, what was the outcome?
So the absolute emphasis was on employment – the collateral being the servicing of particularly the home mortgage debt which, at that time had increased to the exact same size as our GDP, so for every $1- of GDP we had $1- of home mortgage debt to be serviced.
Hence the collateral recognition that the unemployment rate required a 5 in front of it (the definition for full employment) and the stimulus package was so designed.
That objective was achieved, inconsistent with elsewhere and therefore the very correct lauding of the Australian government and its handling of the crisis.
Collateral to that was the underwriting of our banks, who were the lenders of that debt (so a box of cards easily blown over).
So the Australian economy was propped up recognizing the extreme danger point.
I convey that as fact.
Borrison is symptomatic of a floundering dysfunctional government out of time – and he needs to be called out on the facts.
Tristo,
If one thing is obvious while I’ve been back it’s how disengaged people in general are with politics.
Windhover: Friday, November 2, 2018 at 11:57 am
—————————————
Rush doesn’t have a question mark over his conduct because of anything I have said, thought or felt: he has one, whether anyone here likes it or not. Further, somebody apart from me did in fact complain about his behaviour. Even further, somebody else apart from me has stood up in court and backed up the substance of that complaint.
My point is that there are courts which are the proper forum in which the guilt or innocence of citizens should be determined. And which employ the correct standard of proof for such a determination: beyond reasonable doubt. And which employ the correct burden of proof for such a determination: upon the accuser.
How is advocating the bringing of a case like this before a criminal court prejudicial to Geoffrey Rush? Unless you think being tried before a criminal court is, by itself and without a conviction, equivalent to being found guilty?
Surely, saying you want proclamations of “guilt” or “innocence” to be made by a court, and not by armchair judgement on PB, is fair enough to all parties involved? What are you saying about our judicial system if you disagree, as you seem to in your post?
Tristo
From Sukkar’s Electoral Office?
54/46 in Australian polling is a landslide.
Look at the projected seats outcome on this site.
Whilst some have become more engaged through cultural hyper-partisanship, many have indeed turned off. Partly due to the electoral cycle (esp in SA), partly the way media portray politics as mere entertainment to sell their product and partly due to the media attempting to ‘balance’ the shambles of this government with ‘bad as each other’ memes.
Could there also be a personal bias there? If your link to ‘home’ is via a political blog then exposure to ‘people in general’ might dilute the perceived engagement of your peers. When I returned from OS I became more engaged with Oz politics and the people around me were too.
I do wonder how well Labor would be polling at the moment if Anthony Albanese was leader.
__
I do doubt that Labor would be as policy rich and as unified as they are now if Albo had got the job.
I hope Lasker hasnt Alberici’d himself….
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-02/negative-gearing-tax-changes-suited-to-the-times/10458848
The property market has already been hit with a more substantial change – banks now behaving more responsibly in their loan practices and more aware that property price increases can no longer be locked in. Many developers I know are finding it much harder to get capital.
Tristo @ #2551 Friday, November 2nd, 2018 – 11:40 am
At a rough guess, 54-46 to Labor.
@Barney in Blackwood
Yes I have noticed that too, I think people could become engaged when the Liberal Party becomes an alt-right party maybe more extremist than Trump. I do believe Mark Latham might join the Liberal Party eventually, since he is not a great fit for One Nation.
The gaggle of right-wing populist parties have entered alt-right territory now and they are egging on the Liberal party to gradually adopt their policies. Malcolm Turnbull’s overthrow as leader has accelerated the process, it would have gone at truly light speed levels if Peter Dutton had been made leader.
Michael A, you don’t follow discussion well.
Kevjonno posted:
[kevjohnno says:
Friday, November 2, 2018 at 10:44 am
“So I think the opinions of Rush posted Nicholas, Michael A etc are baseless & unfair.”]
You said in response to Kevjohno and implicitly denying the accuracy of his observation that you had posted opinion re Rush that was baseless and unfair:
[Please cite 1 post of mine, with a copy and paste of the quote, where I make any judgement on Geoffrey Rush’s guilt or innocence.]
I have taken you to a post of yours yesterday where YOU opined that Rush should be prosecuted in a criminal court for his behaviour.
Implicit in you opinion that Rush should be so prosecuted is that you believe that Rush has a case to answer BRD for his behaviour.
It therefore follows you have given an opinion of Rush’s behaviour that is baseless and unfair, unless you claim to be a relevant witness, in which case hop on a plane to Sydney.
Honeymoon = +1
Fall back to earth (realisation sets in that the ALP had another leadership change and Murdoch press going full ‘kill Albo’) = -2
Back on feet = +1
Resultant change = bees penis.
Player One @ #2579 Friday, November 2nd, 2018 – 9:24 am
Bill Shorten has questions to answer.
In regards the electorate per se, from those I associate with at least (and across the spectrum) there is a resignation in regards this government, a government which is not highly regarded and less so under the current leadership.
So, my take is that the baseball bats are ready to be swung.
No sense debating – because nothing is changed or will change.
All we are seeing is floundering.
I struggle with lots of words. I struggle with lots of numbers. I skim. I take short cuts. But I do like graphs. I am visually oriented. William Bowe’s charts for primary voting intention are interesting. https://www.pollbludger.net/bludgertrack2019/
What I notice is that the red line wanders a small bit. The blue line wanders a lot. And at the bottom there is a similar characteristic comparing the green line (generally steady) with the yellow one (up and down). The characteristic is less pronounced on the charts for each state, but nevertheless still apparent.
The shape of the TPP chart would seem to depend on the primary vote for the right wing parties. I suspect that far from being disengaged voters are quite focussed on the government.
Late Riser @ #2583 Friday, November 2nd, 2018 – 12:33 pm
ON seems to have a pretty solid downward trend this year, Poorlean struggling for airtime & outrage while the government continue doing such a better job at creating crises.
Windhover:
Friday, November 2, 2018 at 12:31 pm
—————————————
So, you have no plain words from me, directly stating an opinion as to Rush’s guilt or innocence. All you have is an inference which you have drawn from my words. And you have given no reasoning to support your inference, only a repetition of that inference, helpfully reinforced IN CAPS.
This says it all about these attempts to verbal me.
Late Riser
It helps that Trump is doing the LNP schtick.
The voters are noting the similarities of the LNP campaign and that of Trump.
🙂
The times were private debt growing as it was, fueling the economy.
An ASX recovering from successive tepid (loss) results to 20% PA gains over each of 4 years from 2004->2007 inclusive, courtesy of the Mining Boom Phase 1, to a level we have not been within 5% of since, noting Global Indices.
Public assets privatized.
Inflation gathering pace, hence the 10 Year Bond Yield with a 7 in front of it immediately prior to the GFC (and the RBA increasing the Cash Rate).
Despite the inflationary transition by way of tax cuts (Vanstone “a sandwich a week”, so who benefited?) and other measures of these revenues to the economy, a minimal (in context) Budget surplus was achieved (the minimal figure put into context by the GFC)
So different times indeed.
And not sustainable, as history has shown
LR
Hah a tweet in my timeline that points to how voters do see the narrative being pushed now.
For decades, Republicans have been able to deny that racist appeals were central to how they won elections. “Sure, there’s a little of that, but that’s not why we win. We win because of the free enterprise system, low taxes, personal liberty.” Uh-huh.
https://thebea.st/2yFgNRd?source=twitter&via=desktop
LR – interesting the Bludger track now shows Greens in all states at 10% plus and up about 1% on last election. Despite the hopes/warnings of some Labor tribalists that Greens are headed downhill. In SA the Greens have rarely if ever hit 10%. And ON continuing to mostly head down near the bottom where they belong. The LNP plus ON would show a much straighter line than the 2 separately which is also interesting. And whats with the name, email issue?
LR
That then forces commentary like this from our media (helps ABC trying to show independence)
@abcnews tweets
Immigration and Border Security Reporter in Texas analyses Trump’s conference on migrant policy and the implications of an executive order https://ab.co/2PzaqZd
Albo would make a good regional town mayor.
Ipswich recently sacked their council, maybe he should move there.
Even a couple of craft breweries there that he could drop in wearing his robe and have a beer and chat with the locals.
Given that the government in the senate deliberately for electoral gain voted for a motion saying that the acknowledge “the deplorable rise of anti-white racism and attacks on Western civilisation” and that “it is okay to be white”. One has to question how advanced the transformation of the Liberal Party towards an authoritarian, neo-nationalist or even alt-right party is currently. The process would have been speed up quite a lot if Peter Dutton had been elected leader and will very likely happen in Opposition.
I saw this image on a guardian site. Shows the subregions with the biggest residential price falls
Winner is Ryde – which is slap bang in the middle of Bennelong…
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/01/sydney-house-prices-fall-at-fastest-rate-in-30-years-dragging-rest-of-australia-down
Spence
I wondered about that too. If I had time I’d do some charts of my own. (Have to run now.)
I wonder if the Ryde fall reflects reduced Chinese investment following some ownership changes (not sure what but I recall there were some
And on ABC News, we get Trump and his “borders” rhetoric repeated relentlessly.
To the benefit of the LNP and “borders”?
It may just be me and the grating of the simplistic Trump, but I do not recall the electioneering of any other USA President getting such air play in Australia.
The constancy of raising and re-raising the issue speaks to electioneering aimed at the “base”, not solution.
“We have a caravan of illegal immigrants heading towards our border from within Mexico ……..”
“We need to secure our border”
Really?
So, given all the rhetoric and now the danger from a caravan the movement of which is being monitored, why isn’t the border secure?
Why is it an issue?
Is there any pressure being bought to bear on the circumstances that see these people being refugees?
So, instead of the end event being the breaching of borders we seek to address the reason there is a “caravan” in the first place?
From Mexico, being a neighbor with whom, you could speculate, there is a diplomatic relationship at the least in some form or other.
Mr Morrison has announced that the People of Australia don’t want him to talk about:
1. The Jerusalem Embassy Cockup
2. The Iran Agreement Cockup
3. The Religion Report Gay Kids Cockup
4. The Kids Cruelty R US on Nauru Cockup
5. The Crewther S44 Cockup
6. The ‘I lied about Turnbull’ Cockup
7. The Indigenous National Day Cockup
8. The ReefGate Cockup
9. The 14 Coalition Members Citizenship Cockup.
10. The CDEP Cockup
11. The 48 million missed Centrelink Calls Cockup
12. The Chemicals Authority Cockup
13. The Live Trade Cockup
14. The MDB Water Looting Cockup
15. The Damaged Relations with Indonesia Cockup
16. The Necking Turnbull Cockup
17. The Necking Bishop Cockup
18. The Abbott Envoy Cockup
19. The Longman Cockup
20. The Wagga Wagga Cockup
21. The Wentworth Cockup
22. The Serial Bastardization of Liberal Women by Liberal Men Cockup
23. The Ditching the Coalition’s Budget Rules Cockup.
24. The Raiding the NDIS Funds for Drought Funding Cockup.
25. The AWM rather than Vet Suicide Prevention Cockup.
26. The Nazis R Us Cockup.
27. The White Supremacist Support Vote Cockup
28. The Walton Family Citizenship Stripping Cockup
@DTT I don’t recall ownership changes.
I do recall a bit of a national directive from Xi Jinping about reducing investment in overseas real estate – part of the belt and road initiative I think