Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

A bad Newspoll for the Liberals, made worse by a sharp deterioration in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings.

The latest Newspoll has Labor’s lead up again after a period of moderating results since the leadership upheaval, the two-party lead now at 54-46, compared with 53-47 in the poll a fortnight ago. Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 39%, while the Coalition is down one to 36%, the Greens are down two to 9%, and One Nation are steady on 6%. Still more worrying for the Liberals is a reversal of the tide in favour of Scott Morrison, who records his first net negative personal ratings to date, with approval down four to 41% and disapproval up six to 44%. Bill Shorten is respectively up two to 37% and down one to 50%, and his deficit as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 45-34 to 43-35. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1646.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,075 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Not sure what Cameron’s hanging offence was on SkyAfterDark. Most everything he says is insulting or trolling.

    Though not as big of a cummapance as his effort as a godbothering NSW Liberal parliamentarian, when he got his staffer pregnant whilst his wife was at home with the kids.

  2. @queernaut tweets

    PSA: be careful when removing the posters that have the white supremacist slogan “It’s okay to be white” that have been spotted around Australia. some posters have hidden razor blades behind the posters, designed to injure people trying to take them down. #auspol

    @joshgnosis tweets

    Here Are All The Times Rowan Dean And Ross Cameron Were Extremely Normal About Women https://www.buzzfeed.com/ginarushton/outsiders-rowan-dean-ross-cameron-sarah-hanson-young?utm_source=dynamic&utm_campaign=bfsharetwitter&utm_term=.plxAb7rWAv via @ginarush

  3. lizzie @ #2610 Friday, November 2nd, 2018 – 10:24 am

    I had become accustomed to being addressed as ‘Hi’ in emails, etc., and use it myself.
    However, I now find ‘Hey, lizzie’ at the top of emails.

    It’s going to take a while for me to get used to this one, as to me Hey is shouted to attract someone’s attention, or to show surprise, interest, or annoyance, eg “Hey, that’s my chair you’re sitting on.”

    I see from my reading that its use as ‘hello’ has spread from the southern states of America.

    Still seems slightly rude, to me. No doubt I’ll adapt eventually. 🙂

    Hey Lizzie

    You’ll get used to it.

    Sorry, couldn’t resist. 😆

  4. guytaur @ #2653 Friday, November 2nd, 2018 – 2:34 pm

    @queernaut tweets

    PSA: be careful when removing the posters that have the white supremacist slogan “It’s okay to be white” that have been spotted around Australia. some posters have hidden razor blades behind the posters, designed to injure people trying to take them down. #auspol

    So it shouldn’t be a problem now as people will be aware of the move and feel over the top of the poster for a razor blade underneath, or just look closely for their outline.

  5. [Michael A says:
    Friday, November 2, 2018 at 12:44 pm
    Windhover:
    Friday, November 2, 2018 at 12:31 pm
    —————————————

    So, you have no plain words from me, directly stating an opinion as to Rush’s guilt or innocence. All you have is an inference which you have drawn from my words. And you have given no reasoning to support your inference, only a repetition of that inference, helpfully reinforced IN CAPS.

    This says it all about these attempts to verbal me.]

    Mike, take ownership of your words.

    When you say, as you do, that Rush should be prosecuted for his behaviour in criminal proceedings, YOU ARE SAYING SOMETHING.

    The SOMETHING you are saying is that in YOUR OPINION what Rush has done warrants criminal prosecution.

    Obviously you do not go around saying everyone should be prosecuted for their behaviour. You single out Rush for his behaviour. These are your direct words.

    You could only want him criminally prosecuted because you believe that it is likely his behaviour will be proved BRD to constitute a criminal offence since that is the standard for instigating a prosecution.

    In Australia we do not prosecute everyone for everything they do for the very sensible reason that most things that everyone does (including the most recalcitrant criminals) does not amount to a criminal offence.

    We only prosecute people whose behaviour is believed to be likely to be proved BRD to constitute a criminal offence.

    It follows as an inevitable inference from your words that you are of the opinion that Rush has so misbehaved.

    Own your opinion.

  6. Simon² Katich® says:
    Friday, November 2, 2018 at 1:49 pm
    I intend to use “What, ho!” as the preferred greeting!

    A local radio personality (in somewhat advancing age) likes to greet listeners with a sharp….
    HI HO… Everybody!
    Drives me to drink it does. WTF happened to ‘good evening’! The world has gone to pot!
    Globalisation, expensive barbers with TV screens showing American sports, kiddies with no respect…. need i go on?

    _______________________

    HI HO… Everybody!

    was the trade mark greeting of radio star Jack Davey on australian radio. He became Australia’s highest paid and most popular radio performer, as a writer, producer, and host.

    I remember his radio shows well, I always listened to them as a kid.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Davey

    (8 February 1907 – 14 October 1959)

  7. The banjo players are rooting out the infiltrators..

    breaking: NSW Nationals pass a motion outlawing members to be part of several alt-right organisations including Lads Society Squadron 88 and The Dingoes in response to Nazi scandal

    story soon via @AAPNewswire

  8. Dan G

    😆 Funny thing is, it was almost appropriate there.

    I just heard a scientist on ABC speak of a ‘nuculus’.
    The nucular effect is spreading!

  9. Steve777-

    Otherwise, they end up paying no tax. Seems fair to me. They aren’t entitled to any more.

    Sigh.

    The rest of your post is perfectly correct – some of the income that the company earned, and paid company tax on, is distributed to Australian resident shareholders, and that income (by the process of dividend imputation) is reassessed as that Australian resident’s personal income instead of the company’s income; the company tax paid is refunded and personal income tax is levied instead.

    Why is it “fair” that company tax is refunded for those with more taxable income, but (under Labor’s proposal) not refunded for those with less taxable income? (And when Labor figures talk about this measure they only talk about budget affordability, not ‘fairness’ – there’s a reason for that).

    The current system is the consistent and logical operation of dividend imputation intersecting with the tax free threshold.

    As I’ve said many times in this debate if you don’t think that the basic point of dividend imputation (reassessing company income as personal income) makes sense, then we should be talking about scrapping that – I’d be happier with that as it puts everyone in the same boat. And/or we should talk about people with lots of assets and high real incomes who have low/zero taxable incomes due to various distortions added for superannuation/pensioners … if taxable income was more reflective of actual income then a lot of the ‘rort’ factor goes away.

  10. Just imagine grumpy-guts explaining why sheep need to die on board ship.

    Samuel Clark
    @sclark_melbs
    2 hours ago

    Big @InsidersABC on Sunday. @murpharoo, @farrm51 and Gerard Henderson on the couch, @DarrenChesterMP is our guest and stacks to talk about: Turnbull v Morrison, Nauru, new s44 doubts, live sheep. See you Sunday at 9am you legends

  11. This is what Cameron said……””If you go to Disneyland in Shanghai on any typical morning of the week, you’ll see 20,000 black-haired, slanty-eyed, yellow-skinned Chinese, desperate to get into Disneyland.”………….

  12. Wot Cameron said….


    “Sky News is committed to robust discussion and debate, however this language is totally unacceptable and has no place on any of our platforms, not in modern Australian society.”

    The 30 October program was removed from Sky News platforms on Friday morning.

    Cameron made the remarks while defending China against allegations it was attempting to infiltrate Australia’s intelligence network.

    “And I am just saying to you the Chinese civilisation is the oldest continuing civilisation in the world, OK, it is not going anywhere,” he said.

    “1.4 billion people – it has got about a sixth of the world’s population. All of them are studying English.

    “If you go to the Disneyland in Shanghai, on any typical morning of the week, you’ll see 20,000 black haired, slanty eyed, yellow skinned Chinese, desperate to get into Disneyland because they like and enjoy and embrace many aspects of western culture.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2018/nov/02/ross-cameron-sacked-from-sky-news-after-racist-comments-about-chinese-people?CMP=soc_568

  13. Are these ministers corrupt, or just too lazy to do any new work?

    The Indigenous affairs minister, Nigel Scullion, has used money earmarked for alleviating Indigenous disadvantage to fund a fishing industry lobby group he used to chair.

    He approved a grant of $150,000 to the Northern Territory Seafood Council so it could argue how it would be negatively affected by land claims – claims he opposed during his time in the role.

    Under the NT Land Rights Act, those who consider a land claim would have a negative impact on their business or personal interests can argue a “detriment” case about how their future access to income, land or water would suffer if the claim were approved.

    A group of six land claims in the NT have been held up – some by almost 30 years – by unresolved detriment issues.

    Scullion chaired the NTSC from 1994 to 2001, and gave statements or appeared in person to argue detriment in at least two of the claims.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/02/nigel-scullion-gave-indigenous-funding-to-his-former-fishing-lobby-group-to-fight-land-claims?CMP=share_btn_tw

  14. Regarding retirees getting cash payments from the tax payer on their shares. I feel certain it angers a lot more people who don’t & won’t benefit from this lurk. It’s their sense of entitlement that annoys me the most. We paid or taxes & worked hard so we deserve it. Give us a break, they were lucky enough to have jobs and affordable houses.

  15. lizzie @ #2619 Friday, November 2nd, 2018 – 1:24 pm

    I had become accustomed to being addressed as ‘Hi’ in emails, etc., and use it myself.
    However, I now find ‘Hey, lizzie’ at the top of emails.

    It’s going to take a while for me to get used to this one, as to me Hey is shouted to attract someone’s attention, or to show surprise, interest, or annoyance, eg “Hey, that’s my chair you’re sitting on.”

    I see from my reading that its use as ‘hello’ has spread from the southern states of America.

    Still seems slightly rude, to me. No doubt I’ll adapt eventually. 🙂

    Agreed. I tend to use G’day as a passive aggressive response, and sign off with slainte (though it’s difficult to get the Scots Gaelic accents correct in email fonts).

  16. No Latham was sacked last year for bullying a teenager on tv. Did C@tmomma et al campaign for him in 2004 with all the gusto she does for Shorten? Lets face it, thank Hitchens Howard won that election.

  17. It’s also worth noting that all of last night’s drama went down just a few metres away from the room where The Chaser’s annual charity lecture was taking place. That event was also briefly evacuated due to the fire alarm, and then suffered a power outage which may or may not have been caused by the student politicians.

    Anyway, here’s your annual update on what Australia’s aspiring future politicians are up to (unfortunately, it’s not uncommon for people to progress from the USyd SRC to grown-up politics — Tony Abbott and Malcolm Turnbull, for instance, both got their start in USyd student politics). Meet your future leaders.

    https://junkee.com/sydney-uni-student-politics-repselect/180392

  18. No Jackol

    It was Costello’s amendment to the original and correctly argued position re double dipping by the Commonwealth (ie. tax remitted by the Company and then remitted by the Shareholder upon the receipt of a dividend, that receipt of a dividend resulting in a tax assessment to be paid, so double dipping by the Commonwealth)

    The Costello amendment meant those who could so arrange their personal tax affairs (so not everyone) such that they have no tax liability then receive the tax credit paid to them by the Commonwealth

    Spot the difference?

    Costello’s amendment has run its race – as have other of his “iniatives”

  19. Windhover:
    Friday, November 2, 2018 at 2:40 pm
    —————————————

    This is getting a little obsessive now. Why is it so important to you that you trap me into admitting to a view that I don’t actually hold, and which I have patiently explained on multiple occasions that I do not hold? I think it is always better for people’s guilt or innocence on criminal matters be decided by a criminal court, not trial by media or exoneration by PB consensus or whatever.

  20. At last the Wentworth Marathon is nearly over – looks like 423 votes to be counted this afternoon (postals due by COB today).

    Does anyone know if Sharma has conceded officially?

    Guess all those Liberal Postals from The Holy Land are still in the mail…

  21. Observer @ #2688 Friday, November 2nd, 2018 – 2:06 pm

    No Jackol

    It was Costello’s amendment to the original and correctly argued position re double dipping by the Commonwealth (ie. tax remitted by the Company and then remitted by the Shareholder upon the receipt of a dividend, that receipt of a dividend resulting in a tax assessment to be paid, so double dipping by the Commonwealth)

    The Costello amendment meant those who could so arrange their personal tax affairs (so not everyone) such that they have no tax liability then receive the tax credit paid to them by the Commonwealth

    Spot the difference?

    Costello’s amendment has run its race – as have other of his “iniatives”

    Yes. The whole point is that it opens up an avenue that can be exploited for tax avoidance by use of highly artificial arrangements. Similar to the interplay of negative gearing and capital gains tax discounts.

    Apart from being a rort, it actually distorts rational economic choices.

  22. Observer –
    That is the history.

    The current system, whatever the motivations of Costello and Howard, is consistent and logical in its operation.

    It was Costello’s amendment to the original and correctly argued position re double dipping by the Commonwealth (ie. tax remitted by the Company and then remitted by the Shareholder upon the receipt of a dividend, that receipt of a dividend resulting in a tax assessment to be paid, so double dipping by the Commonwealth)

    So all the arguments about ‘double dipping’ don’t seem to phase anyone else in the world.

    No other country of note implements dividend imputation. The Brits thought about it and decided not to. Whatever the merits of our system, not many people can see it. But rather than getting rid of dividend imputation just for some, either get rid of it for all, or apply it consistently as happens at the moment.

    The Costello amendment meant those who could so arrange their personal tax affairs (so not everyone) such that they have no tax liability then receive the tax credit paid to them by the Commonwealth

    Surely the proper solution is to ensure that it is not possible for people to “arrange their personal tax affairs such that they have no tax liability” … ie make it so that people with low taxable incomes really are people with low incomes.

    The tax credit itself makes sense, but when it goes to people on hundreds of thousands of dollars a year income that they can legally make invisible to the ATO, then there’s a problem.

  23. Windhover

    …and then he describes those posters querying his attacks on Rush as ‘apologists’.

    Again, the implication is that we’re defending the indefensible by not rushing to judgement.

  24. @kylegriffin1 tweets

    Trump just said that the pipe bomb mailings and Pittsburgh shooting stopped his momentum in the midterms: “Now, we did have two maniacs stop a momentum that was incredible. Because for 7 days, nobody talked about the elections. It stopped a tremendous momentum.”

  25. [Michael A says:
    Friday, November 2, 2018 at 3:07 pm
    Windhover:
    Friday, November 2, 2018 at 2:40 pm
    —————————————

    This is getting a little obsessive now. Why is it so important to you that you trap me into admitting to a view that I don’t actually hold, and which I have patiently explained on multiple occasions that I do not hold?]

    I am not trapping you Mike. I am holding you to the opinion, expressed in your own words, which you have not renounced. Furthermore it was YOU who encouraged a search (very easily done) of your posts for such words. And now you call it obsessive?

    Other views you hold (that you explain tediously and which are of no interest) are not in conflict with the opinion you expressed with respect to Rush.

    Own it.

  26. guytaur

    Trump said earlier that he is a very truthful person. wtte “I always tell the truth… but sometimes things change.”

  27. Albanese is excellent ministerial material. He understands the issues. He is good at formulating relevant policy. He is across his brief as and when required.
    He will make an excellent contribution in successive Shorten governments.

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