The Guardian reports the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll has Labor’s lead unchanged at 53-47 – as usual, we must await the full report to see the primary votes. Other findings: Scott Morrison is credited with a 35% to 28% edge over Malcolm Turnbull, which he appears to owe to Coalition supporters falling in behind the incumbent; only 20% believe the leadership change has “refreshed” the government, with 59% saying it hasn’t; 26% support moving the embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, with 32% opposed; 56% say Australia is not doing enough to address climate change, with 23% saying it is; 63% express belief in anthropogenic climate change, compared with 25% favouring the alternative response attributing climate change to normal fluctuation. UPDATE: Full report here. No change whatsoever on the primary vote, with the Coalition on 38%, Labor on 37%, the Greens on 10% and One Nation on 7%.
Also:
• The Australian has published one of the occasional sets of Newspoll breakdowns by state, gender, age and metropolitan-versus-regions, aggregated from multiple poll results over a period usually consisting of three months. This time though, the July-September quarter suffered the interruption of the leadership coup in late August. So results from the last three polls under Malcolm Turnbull were published shortly after the coup, and now the first four polls under Scott Morrison have been aggregated, with one more set presumably to follow at the end of the year. The two-party results show the Coalition doing three points worse than the late Turnbull period in New South Wales and Victoria, where Labor respectively leads by 54-46 and 57-43; four points worse in Queensland and Western Australia, both of which have Labor leading 54-46; and fully nine points worse in South Australia, where the Coalition led 51-49 last time, and Labor now leads 58-42. The Labor primary vote in South Australia is up fully 12%, from 28% from 40%, with “others” as well as the Coalition well down, perhaps reflecting the decline of Xenophonism. However, it should be noted the sample in the case of South Australia was only 478.
• New Matilda has results of a uComms/ReachTEL poll for GetUp! from Tony Abbott’s electorate of Warringah, although it may be showing its age, having been conducted on September 13. The poll credits Abbott with a two-party lead of 54-46 over Labor, a swing of 7% – though in fact it was the Greens who made the final count in 2016, with a final two-party result much the same as it would have been against Labor. Perhaps more to the point, 52.6% of respondents said they would consider voting for an independent, although it was only 21.7% among Liberal voters. After allocating results from a forced response follow-up for the initially undecided, the primary votes were Liberal 41.7%, Labor 25.3%, Greens 12.7% and One Nation 4.4%. The kicker for Abbott is that 46.3% of respondents rated his performance very poor, and 10.3% the ordinary kind of poor, compared with 23.8% for very good and 10.4% for good, with a tellingly few 9.3% opting for average. The sample for the poll was 854.
• Counting in Wentworth continues, and will do so in steadily diminishing form until the end of next week. You can follow the action on the ongoing live count thread. For what it’s worth, Andrew Tillett of the Australian Financial Review quotes a Liberal source clinging to the hope that late postal votes arriving from Israel might yet yield a surprise. I had a fairly extensive look at the excitement that unfolded on Saturday and Sunday in a paywalled article in Crikey yesterday.
briefly @ #98 Tuesday, October 23rd, 2018 – 10:51 am
Hmm. I wonder if those countries that will literally disappear as sea-levels rise would agree with this?
Seems the $832 only applies in SA
From the SMH report:
The Australian Energy Market Commission has found that customers in South Australia can pay about $832 more than they need when the median standing offer is compared to the minimum market offer.
The price premium can be $652 in Victoria, $411 in NSW, $369 in Queensland and $273 in the ACT.
And in WA? no relief in sight.
There is a change the rules rally under way in Melbourne
“Steve Ciobo just blamed the mental health issues of the children on Nauru on the ‘poor choice’ their parents made in trying to come to Australia.”
facepalm. You know every time I see or hear Ciobo I just think white bread guy, born into privilege who has had everything handed to him on a platter. Not least of all a cushy safe seat in parliament. He simply has no idea of what life is like outside his little bubble. Cannot comprehend the concept of true desperation that leads people to do crazy things like hop on to a leaky boat to cross the seas.
And the irony here is that a good proportion of the people on Nauru were not too dissimilar to him – class and social status wise. To have the resources to be able to pay people smugglers, after first taking a flight to Indonesia, means that you have to at least be reasonably well off. These are not the poorest of the poor. Not unlike a Steve Ciobo type of person who suddenly loses all his privilege, his wealth and is no longer safe in his own country. What would Steve Ciobo do if, God forbid, he ever faced such a calamity? Probably do everything he can to restart his and his family’s life in a place of opportunity – even if that meant risking all on a leaky boat.
Player One says:
Tuesday, October 23, 2018 at 10:42 am
The irony is that it is their very denial that brought about the reality they feared. This was a problem we could have averted
—————————————
Yes. The scientific community has been warning us since the late 1980’s (at least) that the longer we delay adjusting our economy to produce carbon emissions, the sooner and the more severe will be the climatic consequences, and the more drastic will be the remedies we need to take to avert a catastrophe.
These adjustments could have been incremental, if they had started sooner and been adhered to more firmly. But that window has been getting smaller with every day that has passed.
It truly is a vicious circle of psychological self-reinforcement: the more drastic the steps that now have to be taken to try to stop avert the catastrophe, and the more severe the consequences of us failing to take those steps, the more attractive it becomes to bury your head in the sand about it. And then, the resultant delay just makes the remedy more drastic and the catastrophe more severe.
Hidden away among the articles referenced by BK (what a job!!) is an article by Koukoulos saying (correctly) that the wealth of Australians has fallen by $300 Billion since the start of 2018, and the ASX continues to be a drain on wealth (now along with house prices).
So our Superannuation accruals have gone backwards since the start of 2018 with no relief in sight including because of where the Cash Rate remains in Australia.
This drain on wealth impacts on confidence, and the economy per se
In the previous thread I put a summary of economic conservatism or neo liberal ideology (or what ever label you wish to apply to the ideology of Conservatives ) in that austerity gives confidence and that confidence leads to growth
I defer to Stiglitz, noting that Bernie Fraser and Michael Keating last week delivered an assessment on neo liberalism as divisive, impacting on confidence and a failure.
And the figures are in.
This is the “sleeper” issue, the outcome of neo liberalism – and having to re-boot the NBN!!
Meeres baba
It would have been better for proponents of action on global warming to work with sectors such as the fishing or wine industries, where the impacts are gradual, but bleeding obvious.
The effects in the fishing industry are not so gradual. In the industry in which I’ve been working for 35 years, far more than 50% of the biomass has been destroyed in 7 years by the effects of elevated sea surface temperatures. Elevated temperatures deplete oxygenation in the water column, which in turn affects the food supply and the ability of organisms to metabolise – to sustain themselves from moment to moment, to grow, to reproduce. Above a certain threshold, oxygen depletion simply results in mass destruction of populations and their immediate localised extinction.
This is very readily apparent in the Australian coastal littoral. Mass extinctions have already occurred, most notably within the last few years. These are not merely irreversible. We know that such events have not occurred since the end of the last ice age. If they had occurred these marine populations would not have been in existence. They would have been extinct well before we identified and began to both document and exploit them.
This is a rolling catastrophe. We are literally sowing mines in our own near-future and the more distant future of those who come behind us.
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/is-kerryn-phelps-eligible-for-parliament/ar-BBOHNDX?ocid=spartandhp
I share this concern. History suggests the Newspoll primaries with the previous election preference flows is the most accurate. That makes the last Newspoll 54-46 BTW.
This year Newspoll has been adding about 1% to the L-NP TPP compared to using the tried and true method. It would not surprise me if this, in turn, is herding Essential.
The idea that Turnbull had the electorate at 49-51 was a stretch. He was never travelling particularly well, but apparently he was a bee’s dick away from the 2016 result. Pull the other one.
PB seems a little unstable this morning. Posts disappearing, then appearing.
The people’s Representatives in government are failing to deal with Climate Change.
A reversion to a belief that a higher power is all that will be able to deal with it.
If, indeed, Anthropogenic Climate Change is something you believe in, as well as the higher being.
So you put your Faith, and your vote, in politicians who tell you that they, and the higher being that they believe in, have the answers.
So perpetuating the vicious circle as nothing useful gets done!
And the people become more afraid and more irrational.
Confessions @ #95 Tuesday, October 23rd, 2018 – 9:43 am
Ah, good ol’ friendly persuasion. With bone saws, and injectables, and clothes-stealing body doubles, and a team of 15 to put the argument.
Makes perfect sense. 🙄
lizzie @ #107 Tuesday, October 23rd, 2018 – 11:07 am
I think Ben Chifley remained on his local council even when he was PM!
There is no relief in sight for anyone, anywhere, from this proposal except perhaps for those people who signed up for incredibly inappropriate retail plans and/or were not paying attention to what potential alternatives were out there.
This proposal isn’t about forcing retailers to drop their prices by $832 or whatever … it’s just about making sure that when retailers are offering a special ‘deal’ that it is compared against a common reference.
As someone who changed my retailer relatively recently and made an assessment as to what my usage and priorities were, nothing in this proposal is ever going to save me a single cent.
I think it’s a good thing to force electricity plans to be promoted in a consistent way, but really, actual savings, if any, are going to be negligible.
Rossmcg.
Wow, they have worked out that people pay more if they are charged more. The discount offers are available for anyone who spends the time and effort to find them.
There are two things wrong with the current setup that should be changed IMO:
1. the discounts only ever talk about ‘percentage off’. You have to delve a little deeper to see what price the percentage off is based. This can vary between retailers. The base price should be the same for all retailers so consumers can compare percentage off offers on an apple to apple comparison.
2. After the discounted contracts have run their course, people are automatically placed on a higher rate. They should be notified that this is happening a month out from the completion of the contract so they can do something about a new contract.
Quickly, re: Dr Phelps eligibility – Medicare rebates are ‘a fee for service’ & only claimable on a case by case basis after the service has been provided. There is no contract of service, or retainer or pay in advance etc. Its hard to see how that issue could possibly disqualify her, especially if she hasn’t performed any medical services for which the rebate applies after the close of nominations.
Secondly, I’m pretty sure that the HC recently resolved the issue of local councillors in a test case relating to the Major of Launceston- who was Jackie Lambie’s replacement in the Senate. So no problems there either I think.
The Government will refer her anyways if they can.
If the Gov refer Phelps to Court then people will still think the Government is unstable 😛
More chaos and confusion.
Comment on Twitter
“I’m guessing Malcolm will decline but Scumo will expect that same offer when he is turfed out. That’s the real reason.”
Where is DTT when you really need her to remind us again that Trump was the less dangerous option …
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-23/donald-trump-threatens-to-increase-united-states-nuclear-arsenal/10418088
Briefly, Ratsak
Sunday’s meeting had present Abbott, Kelly, Hastie, Hawke, Abetz, Andrews, Molan and Falinski. Others were connected by phone. Interestingly, Bernardi was one of those on a phone connection. No Dutton.
The meeting discussed the direction of the Conservative element of the Party. What they intend to hold to.
Two things broadly surfaced
1. No change in policy direction, remain on the set path.
2. Expel Turnbull from the Party
Discussions have been held with Morrison who has requested that the Right and others hold their nerve, he believes Wentworth is not an indicator for the rest of the seats in Australia, and believes the path the Party is on will be recognised by voters as the right mix of policy. Morrison intends to aggressively sell it. He has emphasised to the Right his promise there will be no change in policy direction.
Morrison, now has dedicated staffers ringing and reassuring the Backbenchers, just like Turnbull did.
Both Greiner and Kroger are on board in getting rid of Turnbull. Action will proceed.
The challenge by Bishop has collapsed, as word got out her numbers vanished.
lizzie @ #109 Tuesday, October 23rd, 2018 – 11:10 am
Je m’accuse.
I posted a clip which was almost unreadable – and – deleted it very quickly.
I don’t know about the reappearing posts – sorry.
🙄
lizzie @ #120 Tuesday, October 23rd, 2018 – 10:28 am
If that means one or both of them will be spending the bulk of their time not in Australia, I’m all for it. 🙂
a r @ #119 Tuesday, October 23rd, 2018 – 11:23 am
And Kerryn Phelps can simply say, ‘Peter Dutton too’.
As someone who changed my retailer relatively recently and made an assessment as to what my usage and priorities were, nothing in this proposal is ever going to save me a single cent.
The ‘value’ in the announcement today lies in all the parrots in the Coalition pet shop squawking loudly about it from now until election day.
“If the Gov refer Phelps to Court then people will still think the Government is unstable ”
So, is the ALP currently doing a “pair” thing on the Seat of Wentworth because Malcolm resigned??
Now that there is a new member, thats an indie, surely that pair arrangement would be defunct?
And most especially if the Govt seeks to refer her to the HC and block her sitting in parliament anyway??
Cant see even Morrisons Muppets going down the path of referring Phelps t the HC. She is a tory leaning indie fer sure and could be expected to support the Govt on most matters.
What possible benefit would there be in the Tories sending Phelps to the HC?
Even if she were found ineligible she would simply take down her shingle, run again and probably win by more.
Like to see marketing genius Morrison spin that one.
Confessions: “Unbelievable!”
On the basis of the evidence that the Turkish Government has been steadily revealing, nothing other than a confession by the Saudis that the execution of Khashoggi was approved at the highest levels of their government is now going to be widely accepted.
This saga has featured what appears to have been some staggeringly bad judgement calls by the Saudi Government.
First of all, trying to kidnap/execute Khashoggi in Istanbul (or most likely anywhere else) was a crazy idea from the outset. The guy wasn’t just an obscure dissident, he was a regular commentator on major US media outlets. Also, he was part-Turkish and was on friendly terms with Erdogan. The whole thing was always going to blow up big time, and Erdogan was always going to take the opportunity to use it to beat the Saudis over the head. It’s a no lose situation for him: it gives him much-needed brownie points with many people throughout the Western world, and also helps him to turn up the heat on his enemies within the Saudi regime and his rivals in other parts of the Middle East.
So, as soon as Khashoggi disappeared, the Saudis had a major public relations crisis on their hands. And they handled this incredibly badly. Once the Turkish started releasing information, there was only one sensible way to play it, particularly if the main goal (as I assume it would be) was to protect the reputation of the Crown Prince.
That is, as soon as there was a suggestion that Khashoggi had been killed in the consulate, the Saudi officials should have expressed their grave concerns and have promised to investigate the situation and respond within 24 hours. And then, they should have fessed up right from the start along the lines of “we admit that we attempted a rendition of Khashoggi. He had knowledge and access to state secrets which we feared he was about to release and we urgently needed to question him. We sent a team into Istanbul to bring him back, but they had no authorisation whatsoever to murder him. This was a criminal act and we have arrested all these people and will take them to trial. We would welcome the Turkish authorities handing over any evidence they have to help us with the prosecutions.”
After being dragged reluctantly all the way, the Saudis have now more or less reached this position. But they should have gotten there well over a week ago, at which time it would have been faintly credible. Now, it’s far too late: the US would love to be able to accept this account, but the dreadful management of the issue by the Saudis has now made it more or less impossible for them to do so. I think the only way forward is for the King to announce that he is taking full charge of the Saudi administration and that the Crown Prince will be moving into more of a backroom role. I assume that this exactly the position in which the King didn’t want to be, so I’d guess he’ll be feeling pretty sore about it.
“He has emphasised to the Right his promise there will be no change in policy direction.”
What policy direction would that be??? Do they actually have one tucked away somewhere?? 🙂
Keeping in mind that given Phelps has only just been elected, as I understand it there is a period of time starting from when the AEC declares the result where anyone with standing (ie anyone enrolled in the electorate of Wentworth) can make a s44 challenge against Phelps to the Court of Disputed Returns.
So we may not be talking about a vote in the House if the Coalition decides (unwisely) to make an issue out of this.
Robert Ball
Morrison “believes the path the Party is on will be recognised by voters as the right mix of policy. Morrison intends to aggressively sell it. He has emphasised to the Right his promise there will be no change in policy direction.”
So Morrison is convinced that it is Turnbull’s fault that Wentworth was lost. I can only copy others in saying these RWNJs have no insight, no understanding.
Look at Ciobo this morning. Look at the coal worshippers.
And really, Morrison agreeing to turf Malcolm out of the Liberal party?? Seriously, that would be a rather bad look, AND emphasise the power of the RWFW’s, right at a time when they just dont need that kind of shit. Its completely avoidable nastiness that serves no useful purpose whatsoever. I mean, whatever……………., Malcolm WAS a sitting Liberal PM FFS.
Robert Ball
Morrison, now has dedicated staffers ringing and reassuring the Backbenchers, just like Turnbull did.
___________________________
Can you imagine Keating having dedicated staffers calling backbenchers and making sure they are OK with his policy direction?
“What policy direction would that be??? Do they actually have one tucked away somewhere?? ”
You are wrong, Imacca, the Government does have a policy. The policy is to not have a policy.
Listening to Angus and Scott just now, I have the impression they are going support coal generation so that it can compete with renewables. Renewables as we all know doesn’t need support, it is just common sense.
Observer: “This is the “sleeper” issue, the outcome of neo liberalism – and having to re-boot the NBN!!”
I’m a bit mystified at your suggestion that falling house prices, the current share market correction and continuing low interest rates are consequences of “neo-liberalism.” I would see them simply as an instance of the normal operation of global markets, in which the prices for different classes of assets go up and down according to effective demand, market sentiment, etc, etc.
The global economy has certainly been problematic and volatile for more than a decade now. But my understanding is that this has been largely driven by factors far more fundamental than the prevailing economic policy thinking among academics and government officials. All developed nations, regardless of the political or ideological stripe of their governments, have struggled during this period.
meher baba @ #129 Tuesday, October 23rd, 2018 – 10:39 am
Still doesn’t make sense. You don’t bring bone saws to a kidnapping any more than you bring them to a fistfight. You don’t send the entire body-disposal team if you’re not planning on having to dispose of a body.
Also, kidnapping (or “rendition”, or whatever euphemism gets slapped on it nowadays) is still immoral and illegal and only marginally better than what they actually did.
The second half of that sentence doesn’t logically follow from the first half. Replace “question” with “stop” and it does.
But that change also makes it clear why he’s dead and not merely kidnapped. Because you can’t stop someone or remove their knowledge of something by asking them questions.
Simples. It never occurred to them that the Turks had bugged their embassy. Occam’s razor.
briefly: “The effects in the fishing industry are not so gradual.”
I accept all you say. I meant “gradual” when compared to a major weather event.
How PK dealt with backbench irritants:
At a private meeting one night this week, a Labor backbencher told Paul Keating in very explicit language he thought the Government was much too arrogant and losing touch with its base support. Keating replied in kind. He used a great many four-lettered words imaginatively in telling anyone who felt they were qualified what they could do with themselves and their grumbles.
https://books.google.com.au/books?id=rZK94Ttpr2cC&pg=PA62&dq=%22paul+keating%22+backbenchers&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj1oarVq5veAhXJto8KHVxNBTEQ6AEITTAG#v=onepage&q=%22paul%20keating%22%20backbenchers&f=false
Rudd is the blowfly who turns up at your barbeque.
aaaargh!!
Yes. PB has started going bzzz! pfft! again.
lizzie,
“As a practicing GP, Phelps receives medicare rebates from the government.”
Maybe you could argue it is the patients receiving the rebate.
It’s why I have again begun copying my posts before I post them. Then just closing PB and opening it up in a new tab and logging in again. Even if I am shown to be already logged in. It’s the only thing that works. 🙂
PeeBee @ #136 Tuesday, October 23rd, 2018 – 11:49 am
Renewables need “firming”. That can be achieved by various means – e.g. coal, hydro, gas or batteries.
I think we all know which one the government will chose, because it is “cheapest” 🙁
nath @ #141 Tuesday, October 23rd, 2018 – 11:52 am
Whitlam and Hawke dealt with their MPs in similar ways – even reducing some to tears. According to many Rudd haters on here, this behaviour made Rudd a bully and in the next breath worshiping PJK, EGW and Hawke for the same behaviour.
Why can’t people see both the good and the bad in BOTH Rudd and Gillard instead of having to take sides by worshipping one and hating the other?
There’s little new in advertising.
Morrison says electricity prices will always be lower under the coalition.
Ring a bell?