BludgerTrack: 53.8-46.2 to Labor

No real change in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week, except that there is now a Morrison-versus-Shorten preferred prime minister trend in business.

BludgerTrack has been updated with the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll, together with the state breakdowns published earlier this week by Ipsos. This yields only the tiniest change on voting intention, and no change whatsoever on the seat projection.

I’ve also made my first effort to reactivate the leadership ratings, which have been dormant since Malcolm Turnbull’s because there has been insufficient data to generate a trend measure for Scott Morrison. This is still the case with his net approval ratings, for which there are only five data points, but there have been two extra points for the preferred prime minister question, which makes all the difference.

As such, the leadership ratings trends available through the full BludgerTrack display (click below) show separate trend measures on the preferred prime minister chart for the Turnbull-versus-Shorten and Morrison-versus-Shorten eras. This demonstrates that Morrison’s lead over Shorten is more or less the same as Turnbull’s was. I have also finally updated Bill Shorten’s net approval trend, which suggests a very slight improvement since the Liberal leadership change.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,373 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.8-46.2 to Labor”

Comments Page 19 of 28
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  1. James Kirby offers a profound insight on the stock market crash in ‘The Australian’

    ‘…this market rout should serve as a wake-up call to investors’

  2. I’m hoping for 55/45. I think this is wildly optimistic, but on the strength of their puerile responses on climate change is much more than the LNP deserve.

    54/46….!!!

    fwiw, I think Morrison may lose a bit of skin in the net-sat score….absolutely abysmal performance from him this week….

  4. I patently do not live in the electorate of Wentworth, but it seems to me that Dave Sharma is as close to invisible as Harry Potter’s cloak can make him.

    Does he exist, or is he a product of Malfoy’s fevered imagination?

  5. In Georgia an African American woman is running for governor – the first time in a state that has only ever been governed by white men. Her opponent is the secretary of state who is perpetrating a massive voter suppression strategy to keep people like him in office by preventing the many non-white Georgians the Democrats have signed up over the years.

    The US claim to democracy gets more tenuous by the day.

    As secretary of state, Kemp oversees voting and voter registration rules for his own election. (He’s refused to recuse himself.) He appears to be using his position to try shape Georgia’s electorate to his advantage. According to an analysis by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Kemp allowed 214 voting locations — nearly 8 percent of the state’s total — to be closed in the last six years.

    Worse, The Associated Press recently reported that, under the guise of “voter roll maintenance,” Kemp’s office has canceled more than 1.4 million voter registrations since 2012, and nearly 670,000 registrations in 2017 alone, ostensibly to guard against voter fraud. Further, 53,000 new voter registration applications are “on hold” at Kemp’s office.

    In part, this is because of an “exact match” voter verification program that Georgia’s Republican-controlled government enacted last year, which flags registrations that have even minor discrepancies with official records, like a dropped hyphen in a last name. The A.P. reported that almost 70 percent of the registrations that are now on hold are for African-American voters. (Kemp has blamed sloppy work by the New Georgia Project for the holds. His office told The A.P. that voters whose registrations are in limbo can cast provisional ballots.)

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/12/opinion/stacey-abrams-kemp-georgia-voters.html?action=click&emc=edit_ty_20181012&module=Opinion&nl=opinion-today&nlid=80183539emc%3Dedit_ty_20181012&pgtype=Homepage&te=1

  6. ‘Prime Minister Scott Morrison has warned Wentworth by-election voters of the risk of a hung parliament and economic uncertainty if Liberals don’t retain the seat.’

    FUD

  7. Don

    I don’t know much but around the the time of the banksia-dryandra thing I did a few field trips with some people from the WA herbarium and there was some chit chat around the campfire one night.

    Comment I recall best was that the lumpers had produced the answer to a question nobody had asked.

    I daresay they are not the first researchers, in any field, to do that.

  9. “The US claim to democracy gets more tenuous by the day.”

    Even if you accept that Federations of States are entitled to have some malapportionment in line with the states (as indeed we do in Australia) their gerrymandering and voter suppression, reinforced by partisan election officials and a hack partisan political supreme court (going back to the time the republicans on the supreme court overturned the vote to appoint a republican president, really bad banana republic stuff) makes it a laughably bad, corrupt, banana republic democracy at the very best. It is not even clear the last election was won in accordance with this corrupt banana republic standard.

  10. Rossmcg says:
    Saturday, October 13, 2018 at 8:18 pm
    Don

    I don’t know much but around the the time of the banksia-dryandra thing I did a few field trips with some people from the WA herbarium and there was some chit chat around the campfire one night.

    Comment I recall best was that the lumpers had produced the answer to a question nobody had asked.

    I daresay they are not the first researchers, in any field, to do that.

    __________________________

    You are already way, way ahead of everybody else! As is BW, in spades. Not many others care, sadly.

    However in this case, the old adage ‘follow the money’ comes into play.

    Or, since botanists are paid abysmally, and all they have to go on is status and reputation, ‘follow the number of papers and cites’.

    I feel that it has virtually nothing to do with the science of the matter, and everything to do with egos and reputations.

  11. Confessions

    Kemp’s office has canceled more than 1.4 million voter registrations since 2012, and nearly 670,000 registrations in 2017 alone, ostensibly to guard against voter fraud. Further, 53,000 new voter registration applications are “on hold” at Kemp’s office.

    You make a good argument for compulsory voting. When voting is a privilege it is a privilege that can be blocked.

  12. WWP:

    We often bitch about our electoral system esp in the Senate, but I’m so glad we have the system we have and not the regressive anti-democracy the US is becoming.

    If I could change one thing about the US electoral system it would be to get rid of the electoral college. If I could change another I’d make voting there compulsory for all 18+ year olds.

  14. BK says:
    Saturday, October 13, 2018 at 8:19 pm
    Morrison: a mouthful of air, an exhalation, an empty smirk.
    __
    bw
    A superb word picture.

    _____________________

    This reminded me irresistibly of the song ‘Honeycomb’:

    Oh, Honeycomb, won’t you be my baby
    Well, Honeycomb, be my own
    Got a hank o’ hair and a piece o’ bone
    And made a walkin’ talkin’ Honeycomb
    Well, Honeycomb, won’t you be my baby
    Well, Honeycomb, be my own
    What a darn good life
    When you got a wife like Honeycomb

    For you and KJ:

    Jimmy Rodgers, 1957:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U0uVEvP7FGA

  16. “WWP:
    We often bitch about our electoral system esp in the Senate, but I’m so glad we have the system we have and not the regressive anti-democracy the US is becoming.
    If I could change one thing about the US electoral system it would be to get rid of the electoral college. If I could change another I’d make voting there compulsory for all 18+ year olds.”

    I think an independent (if they can still find that in the US) US election commission to do the boundaries, run the enrolments and count the votes (they should go back to paper and a pencil) would be a massive step away from the abyss they seem destined to jump into.

    Perhaps a popular vote presidential election is an easier sell, well except to republicans, but it isn’t that powerful if a State Government can just disenfranchise almost every native American in the state and their Supreme Court, before that evil wannabe rapist scum Kavanagh, says ‘way to go dudes great electioning.

  18. I think an independent (if they can still find that in the US) US election commission to do the boundaries, run the enrolments and count the votes

    Yes they definitely need that, both at the national and state levels, like we have.

  19. Don & Friends

    Various posts.

    Great information today.
    1957 – Jimmy Rodgers – wunderbar – I was 17 years old and knew everything. Absolutely everything ❗

    61 years later. There’s been some slippage. Everybody else know everything but I know all the rest.

    And it’s goodnight from him. 📺 💤&📺💤💤📺💤

  24. Good night.
    Time to go to bed and listen to the MC Beaton’s ‘Death of a Travelling Man’ a Hamish Macbeth murder mystery: equal parts police procedural and Highlands participant anthropology.
    I do believe that it is the first novel I have ever read in which the hero has red hair.
    Sweet dreams to you all.

  25. Huge if true…

    7 News understands that at this stage Opposition Leader @billshortenmp will not be campaigning with the Labor candidate for Wentworth next week. The party accepts it’s a two way race between the @LiberalAus’s @DaveSharma & Independent @drkerrynphelps. @jenbechwati #auspol #7News

  26. Rossmcg says:
    Saturday, October 13, 2018 at 8:18 pm
    Don

    I don’t know much but around the the time of the banksia-dryandra thing I did a few field trips with some people from the WA herbarium and there was some chit chat around the campfire one night.

    Comment I recall best was that the lumpers had produced the answer to a question nobody had asked.

    I daresay they are not the first researchers, in any field, to do that.

    Having just dropped in I do not what you are talking about (many people tell me I do not know what I am talking about) but When I grew up in WA a lumper was what other states called a wharfie

  27. I support scrapping state and local taxes entirely and having the federal government fund those levels of government. I think that constitutionally it would be possible; it may involve the state parliaments referring some of their powers to the Commonwealth. It could be a very attractive deal for the states: they would get funding certainty and they would shed the opprobrium of having to extract revenue from their constituents. The state and local governments could be held accountable by their voters for how well they manage and administer federal funds and how well they deliver public services and infrastructure. It would be simple, clean, and elegant.

    I think that the federal government should make it clear that it will guarantee whatever funding is needed to meet demand for a public good (such as health care), and that taxes on “bads” such as pollution, alcohol, tobacco, junk food etc are designed to influence behaviour, not to create non-inflationary fiscal space for the government’s spending. It is so unhelpful for the government to present a particular tax as “funding” a particular program e.g. the Medicare Levy.

    I’m concerned about state governments being dependent on taxes on “bads” (e.g. gambling taxes) and on taxes that are not economically efficient in terms of allocating real resources (e.g. taxes on moving house aka “stamp duty”). We want to make it easy for people to move house if this enables them to get the right type of dwelling for their household type and stage of life, or if it enables them to move to a place where they have a job that makes optimal use of their skills. We shouldn’t be penalizing people for moving house. We want gambling to be kept to a minimum; we don’t want state governments hoping that gambling levels remain high so that they can get revenue from it.

  28. “Morrison: a mouthful of air, an exhalation, an empty smirk.”

    It needs something about loudness.

    “Scott Morrison: intake of air, loudly exhaled, an empty smirk” would do it.

  30. “I support scrapping state and local taxes entirely and having the federal government fund those levels of government. I think that constitutionally it would be possible; it may involve the state parliaments referring some of their powers to the Commonwealth. ”

    Nah, unless it is also going to have each State with equal numbers (like the Senate) in the HoR this is a non-starter east coast wet dream.

  31. Sprocket,

    I may be thick and missing something but Shorten and everyone else will be in Canberra next week so when would he have had a chance to be in Wentworth anyway.

    Cheers.

  32. There is a bubbling undercurrent of disfunction in the Liberal Party, with the lid barely on – can it last till after the Wentworth by election?

    Here Connie FW of the Abbott Uglies has a go at Turnbull the Younger, with a passing swipe at our ex-PM

  33. Sprocket_ @ #927 Saturday, October 13th, 2018 – 5:48 pm

    Huge if true…

    7 News understands that at this stage Opposition Leader @billshortenmp will not be campaigning with the Labor candidate for Wentworth next week. The party accepts it’s a two way race between the @LiberalAus’s @DaveSharma & Independent @drkerrynphelps. @jenbechwati #auspol #7News

    Doesn’t parliament resume next week?

  36. Nicholas , “I support scrapping state and local taxes entirely and having the federal government fund those levels of government.” The reason it won’t happen is, “… it may involve the state parliaments referring some of their powers to the Commonwealth.” The politics would be ‘difficult’.

  37. A followup tweet from Roman Quadvlieg on Stuart Robert.
    “I tweeted a little while back that the early mea culpa was suspiciously quick, and this large repayment adds fuel to my suspicion. It feels like termites have eaten away the structural integrity and a few robust thrusts will reveal the full extent of the rot.”

  38. Both propositions could be true. Shorten is required in the main game in Canberra, but Sydney is not too far away. His vote in the house is not required – but is Labor conceding to Phelps, and running dead?

  39. Roman QuadBike is becoming quite the commentator, here he weighs in on Scotty’s knee jerk reaction to the first whiff of criticism of the Ruddock report – specifically gay children being expelled by religious schools.. this reply to a Scotty statement ruling this out..

    “Good, work collaboratively to prevent expulsions based on any discriminating criteria.

    If you’re genuine about a quiet bipartisan approach it helps to not point the finger of historical blame

    You contributed to the confusion with your ‘existing law’ mantra.

    @ScottMorrisonMP

  40. BK, some more termites delving into Robert’s splurging of taxpayers money… from Asher Moses

    .@stuartrobertmp spent $239,493.27 on “printing and communications” expenses between July 2017 – June 2018;

    Of that, $71,318.15 was classified “e-materials”.

    This doesn’t inclue “telco” or “publications” which are broken out separately.

    I put in an FOI for receipts
    #auspol

  45. .@stuartrobertmp spent $239,493.27 on “printing and communications” expenses between July 2017 – June 2018;

    I hope none spent on the tour mentioned in this article. Join Stewy ,wife and a Happy Clapper pastor in Jerusalem all yours for $5,600 per person. Although Stu’ for some reason having second thoughts.

    Gadfly
    Lord and hosts
    ……….join Garry and Kasey on a trip to Israel next year, dubbed the “Treasures of Grace Tour”, co-hosted by none other than Stu and Chantelle Robert. It promises to be “the adventure of a lifetime walking in the footsteps of Jesus”.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/2018/10/13/gadfly-lord-and-hosts/15393492006985

  46. .@stuartrobertmp spent $239,493.27 on “printing and communications” expenses between July 2017 – June 2018;

    I’d love to know how that compares with contemporaries in similarly-sized electorates.

  47. My hat off to the brazen marketers.

    the adventure of a lifetime walking in the footsteps of Jesus.

    Tell me again how Jesus was supposed to have ended up?

  48. PB Newspoll-Poll 2018-10-14
    PB mean: ALP 53.1 to 46.9 LNP
    PB median: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
    No. Of PB Respondents: 22

    Back later to capture and add guesses. 🙂

  50. ……….join Garry and Kasey on a trip to Israel next year, dubbed the “Treasures of Grace Tour”, co-hosted by none other than Stu and Chantelle Robert. It promises to be “the adventure of a lifetime walking in the footsteps of Jesus”.

    Well, I guess he will be out of a job by then. 🙂

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