BludgerTrack has been updated with the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll, together with the state breakdowns published earlier this week by Ipsos. This yields only the tiniest change on voting intention, and no change whatsoever on the seat projection.
I’ve also made my first effort to reactivate the leadership ratings, which have been dormant since Malcolm Turnbull’s because there has been insufficient data to generate a trend measure for Scott Morrison. This is still the case with his net approval ratings, for which there are only five data points, but there have been two extra points for the preferred prime minister question, which makes all the difference.
As such, the leadership ratings trends available through the full BludgerTrack display (click below) show separate trend measures on the preferred prime minister chart for the Turnbull-versus-Shorten and Morrison-versus-Shorten eras. This demonstrates that Morrison’s lead over Shorten is more or less the same as Turnbull’s was. I have also finally updated Bill Shorten’s net approval trend, which suggests a very slight improvement since the Liberal leadership change.
What, are we doing numbers again?
53/47. Same as for last week.
Puffytmd,
It’s ALL about Alan Jones. He must hate being a nobody in Melbourne at Cup time, so he created his own race. He’s just a very rich drama queen who always , needily, wants to be the centre of attention. I can only imagine what his parents were like to have produced such a person.
53/47 to Labor for me please!
Just one final thought on #speciesonpb:
The definition of a species has nothing to do with logic.
If a taxonomist can get their new species name through the relevant committee, then that is what it becomes, so long as it is generally accepted by the rest of the scientific community with an interest in that genus.
The definitions you will find in texts have nothing to do with it.
If taxonomists decide that the Burmese and the Siamese cats are separate species, then separate species they are.
Provided they can get it through the relevant committees, and the rest of the scientific community accepts the new definition.
Nothing whatsoever to do with fertile/infertile offspring.
Nothing.
Railing against it will do you no good at all. Lie back and think of England.
Looks like the National Farmers Federation have decided who the winner of the next federal election will be. 🙂
Player One @ #844 Saturday, October 13th, 2018 – 6:28 pm
Dropped 0.5 in 2 weeks reluctantly, not bad, parl not sitting to show how good labor are! See it in 2 weeks for the good news
“I just found this article from last year, and if it was run the same way this year as described here, it is just a fancy picnic for the idle rich.”
I live in Sydney. I’d never heard of “The Everest” until last week’s kerfuffle.
I’ll stick with 53 to Labor.
Why do you say that C@T. Have been out of the loop mostly due to Himself Indoors 70th birthday.
@ Late Riser
Sticking with 53-47
There is an ABC article ona good report from the parliamentary library on how many coal power stations would have to close by 2030 to meet a real climate target (12). This is probably a low case. We will be under pressure to do better than that because we have very high per capita emissions.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-13/coal-power-stations-needed-to-close-to-meet-ipcc-target-report/10368194
Economically this is easy. New renewables are now cheaper than new coal, will be readily funded and power cost and reliability might improve. Claims of choosing between green power and cheap power are a ScumMy lie.
My interest is what happens to the workers and towns. To me the answer is easy – compensate the workers when the plants close, not the companies. If you assume 200 to 300 workers per plant, you ar looking at around 2000 workers for the nine plants that will not be already closed. Offering a retraining and relocation package of $100k to every worker in a closed plant might cost $200 million (a fraction of the cost of a single new plant, about what the SA big battery cost). You could also build new big batteries and other infrastructure near coal towns.
So the point of this post is that if Labor gets energy market and climate policy right, the human and political issues can be defused for a fraction of what the power companies are gouging from consumers. A Labor policy like this would be equitable, and could be a very useful political tool in the relevant electorates. After all, the workers know they are on borrowed time and they know the Liberals are not going to help them.
My 2 cents.
54:46 to Labor for me please. The Libs have not had a good week. Gay discrimination and Stuart Roberts taking $38k he was not entitled to was not a good look.
C@tmomma @ #854 Saturday, October 13th, 2018 – 5:49 pm
I’m not sure what to make of your post, but maybe farmers are finally getting the seriousness of global warming. I’ve never understood why Greens haven’t seriously targeted farmers as voters. It would be a generational effort, but it would well serve Australia and the Greens Party.
don
Your definition of ‘species’ is a procedural definition, which is fair enough as far as it goes.
But the notion that Committee would allow the renaming of any old collection of individuals through to the keeper is the fallacy.
There are three broad sets of reasons why a species name might be changed.
The first is argument according to the rules, very often having to do with the application of the priority principles in naming.
The second set of reasons of why a species name might be changed is new data.
The rise of DNA analysis caused many an upset.
Even sound recordings have caused splits when it was realized that birds that live in the same locality and which looked the same were in fact two separate species. The initiatial clue was that they had different calls.
The third set of reasons have to do with re-interpretation and evaluation of existing data. This might use, for example, a re-examination of museum specimens.
Is it just me returning from Far west Qld, or is there a distinct pro Shorten tilt in the CPG today (vis Crowe and the other Fairfax droogs and others cited by BK, in addition to the Serious Saturday Paper Journo’s)?
Pastor ScumMo and all who spruik for him (like Robert, Jones, Sharma and the rest of the dismal GRASPers) are now uncollected dog turd on Bondi beach – and everyone saw them being deposited.
I suspect that Newspoll is going to be 53/47 for the good guys until after Sharma loses Wentworth, after which Rupert will be hard pressed to limit the damage to 54/47. Happy Christmas.
LR
‘I’m not sure what to make of your post, but maybe farmers are finally getting the seriousness of global warming. I’ve never understood why Greens haven’t seriously targeted farmers as voters. It would be a generational effort, but it would well serve Australia and the Greens Party.’
Basically the reason this will never fly is because the Greens are basically against just about everything that keeps farmers farming at all.
The Greens are against clearing, for reducing irrigation allocations, against GMOs, against the eating of meat, against monocultures, against intensive anything, against the live trade…
HSO:
Happy birthday to OH!
So the cowered ABC on their News service say how quickly Borrison moves on issues of concern
But why was the issue an issue in the first place – and why the move?
Borrison is a village idiot
C@tmomma @ #851 Saturday, October 13th, 2018 – 6:17 pm
Yes, it all has an air of desperate attention-seeking about it. A bit like Trump Tower.
I don’t think Alan Jones was ever a child. I am not sure the species ‘Arrogant Twat’ has developmental stages.
lizzie says:
Saturday, October 13, 2018 at 4:09 pm
The lumpers have struck back, putting all the Callistemons in with the Melaleucas. So no more Callistemons.
Really?
Damn their eyes!
_______________
You can breathe easy again. My botanist wife informs me that the change was mooted but eventually voted out.
Except that in Qld the Society for Growing Australian Plants continues to have no truck with Callistemons. They are all Melaleucas. The demotion of Callistemons was promoted by a Qld taxonomist, so they went with their fellow ‘countryperson’.
Queenslanders are a bit like that.
Boerwar says:
Saturday, October 13, 2018 at 7:03 pm
___________________
With regard to the naming and unnaming of species:
You have not had anything to do with botanists, I can tell.
don
I can reveal that I had a modest role in Australia’s fight to retain ‘Acacia’ for ‘our’ acacias.
The Africans ran a strong case, based on prior use of ‘Acacia’ for ‘their’ acacias, that they should have ‘Acacias’.
The spirited argument in the relevant international taxonomic committee processes was that it was so important culturally (and economically*) for Australia that in this case it warranted leaving Acacia for our acacias despite the legitimate claim of priority by the Africans.
It was a close run thing.
Just changing all the texts with ‘Acacia’ in them would have cost Australia fortune.
Observer @ #866 Saturday, October 13th, 2018 – 7:07 pm
ABC News in full on propaganda mode on a number of fronts.
Their gutless or ideologically driven journalists and editorial staff are a disgrace.
The sooner the ALP is elected, and establishes the independence of the ABC the better.
rhwombat
Shocked to see these two headlines feature during the day ‘top of the page’ on the GG. Not their more usual “A Shorten government would cause a CFMEU Zombie Apocalypse”
.
don
I have indeed had scads of things to do with botanists, taxonomy, and the application of taxon-based nomenclature, national policy development, national law, international law in relation to access and benefit sharing of genetic resources – including representing Australia at the relevant UN committees, conservation policy, and conservation programs.
There were one or two occasions when the splitters caused me serious grief.
53/47 to ALP
fess
Thanks. will pass it on as he is always interested in the bludger world
Boerwar: “the Greens are basically against just about everything that keeps farmers farming at all.”
Yes, but farmers are intimately rooted to the environment. Talk about front lines. Farmers would be a natural fit for any environmental focussed political party. I get that farmers are captured by the Right, which is why it would take a generation, but still. Why don’t the Greens target them as a long term strategy?
(No need to answer. Just a minor vent. And perhaps the answer presents itself in the idea of a true environmental focus.)
HSO:
He’s a fellow Libran as well!
I went 53/47 for the dry run.
I will now put that out to 54/46.
My positive reasons is that, to the extent that Shorten is in the news, it is in the context of rational policy discussions.
My negative reasons are that the Liberals are back to disunity is death, policy confusion on global warming and shitfighting about social values.
In addition, there has been some very large wealth destruction in the share market and the housing market. Wages are static. The terms of trade that matters for most individual Australians are getting worse.
Finally, I have the sense that Morrison’s schtick will only stick if he delivers. So far he is all Mr Announcement and no Go.
Callistemons sound like they’re the Plutos of the plant kingdom.
EDIT: re Newspoll, I’ll stick with 53:47.
‘Late Riser says:
Saturday, October 13, 2018 at 7:24 pm
Boerwar: “the Greens are basically against just about everything that keeps farmers farming at all.”
Yes, but farmers are intimately rooted to the environment. ‘
Farmers are rooted all right. But not in the environment.
They are rooted by the international trade in commodities, by being price takers, by the economic settings that force over-capitalization of land, and by the concentration of buying power on the domestic market.
Newspoll-poll update:
PB mean: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
PB median: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
No. Of PB Respondents: 15
Much closer grouping tonight.
fess
He was absolutely delighted. I’ll need to tell him it’s from a fellow Libran. He’ll be even more delighted.
In my limited sampling, Mr Morrison is as gone as Mr. Turnbull was. No one very much likes their lack of policy.
I have heard that Morrison is getting his staff and tactical advice from Howard.
Yesterday’s men for today’s world.
LR
We used to be commercial strawberry growers. Because of issues relating to timing we had some good years but when berries started coming in from California and Thailand that were cheaper on the market than we could compete with, the writing was on the wall. We paid our workers well, complete with all relevant conditions, and with appropriate OH&S settings. But that became almost impossible.
I have a little prediction: Morrison’s Great Strawberry Inquiry is having huge difficulties because much of the relevant labour will have been on the black, nameless, undocumented and now scattered all over the place.
Steve777 @ #856 Saturday, October 13th, 2018 – 6:54 pm
Which was probably the point.
On species and genus. The used to be 70 odd banksias, all but a handful found only in WA.
Then a decade or so ago a couple of botanists decided that the 90 odd plants in the dryandra genus were really banksias.
The banksia expert at the WA herbarium who was in the process of finishing a new book at the time was not pleased I am told. Probably even less so when one of the guys who did the revision was appointed head of the herbarium.
There is a reference to all this in the text that finishes up: “whether this hypothetical classification will be generally accepted remains to be seen. The present authors do not follow it …”
I think the lumpers won in the end.
I have vague recollection that somebody told me the lumpers had their eye on hakeas and grevillias.
I’m keeping the Redzel flying here.
RHW
I have definitely noticed the change in the SMH commentary over the last week. Someone must’ve crunched some numbers and figured scomo’s lack of honeymoon is a bad sign.
The change has been quite sudden, so I figure they are reacting to something.
I will stick with 52/48; same reasons as BK.
Douglas and Milko @ #882 Saturday, October 13th, 2018 – 7:44 pm
Morrison is all press release and no substance.
PR bullshit only gets you so far.
They are a hologram of a Government.
It looks like astronomers and botanists have similar processes. Pluto was demoted to a minor planet by the International Astronomical Union in 2006. Vote of attendees at General Assembly. No proxies or postal votes. The meeting was in Prague, and the astronomers from Mattel Europa were there in force, and they filibustered until they got enough votes. They include many minor planet enthusiasts.
GG
‘They are a hologram of a Government.’
Mistah Kurtz – he dead.
‘…
Shape without form, shade without colour,
Paralysed force, gesture without motion;
…’
From TS Eliot’s The Hollow Men
Boerwar says:
Saturday, October 13, 2018 at 7:17 pm
don
I can reveal that I had a modest role in Australia’s fight to retain ‘Acacia’ for ‘our’ acacias.
The Africans ran a strong case, based on prior use of ‘Acacia’ for ‘their’ acacias, that they should have ‘Acacias’.
The spirited argument in the relevant international taxonomic committee processes was that it was so important culturally (and economically*) for Australia that in this case it warranted leaving Acacia for our acacias despite the legitimate claim of priority by the Africans.
It was a close run thing.
Just changing all the texts with ‘Acacia’ in them would have cost Australia fortune.
_______________
Good on you. My wife was also involved, especially in submissions to the conference in Vienna where it was decided.
‘don
Good on you. My wife was also involved, especially in submissions to the conference in Vienna where it was decided.’
And good on her!
Boerwar says:
Saturday, October 13, 2018 at 7:21 pm
don
I have indeed had scads of things to do with botanists, taxonomy, and the application of taxon-based nomenclature, national policy development, national law, international law in relation to access and benefit sharing of genetic resources – including representing Australia at the relevant UN committees, conservation policy, and conservation programs.
There were one or two occasions when the splitters caused me serious grief.
__________________
Then you know whereof I speak.
Boerwar @ #886 Saturday, October 13th, 2018 – 7:52 pm
Midnight, not a sound from the pavement
Morrison: a mouthful of air, an exhalation, an empty smirk.
Rossmcg says:
Saturday, October 13, 2018 at 7:40 pm
On species and genus. The used to be 70 odd banksias, all but a handful found only in WA.
Then a decade or so ago a couple of botanists decided that the 90 odd plants in the dryandra genus were really banksias.
The banksia expert at the WA herbarium who was in the process of finishing a new book at the time was not pleased I am told. Probably even less so when one of the guys who did the revision was appointed head of the herbarium.
There is a reference to all this in the text that finishes up: “whether this hypothetical classification will be generally accepted remains to be seen. The present authors do not follow it …”
I think the lumpers won in the end.
I have vague recollection that somebody told me the lumpers had their eye on hakeas and grevillias.
___________________
You know a great deal more about the situation than the average punter!
I know nuzzing.
I consulted with my botanist wife, and the best info to hand is that the situation with regard to both Banksias/Dryandras and Hakeas/Grevillias is that the situation remains, and is likely to remain for some time, extremely fluid.
It is further needlessly complicated by the various state Australian Plant Society committees and members, and their reaction to pronouncements from the botanists. Some treat every revision as gospel, before it has been through the process of “is this a sensible thing”
It is a huge mess.
Boerwar @ #891 Saturday, October 13th, 2018 – 8:05 pm
Haiku with chips!