Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

No change in voting intention from the latest Essential poll, which also finds respondents evenly split on the future of the Nauru detention centre.

The Guardian reports the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 53-47. The poll also includes the monthly leadership ratings, which show Scott Morrison leading Bill Shorten 42-27 as preferred prime minister, out from 39-27 a month ago. We will have to wait for the full report later today to see primary votes and approval ratings. The poll also finds 40% in favour of transferring families and children on Nauru to Australia, with 39% opposed; 37% supporting the closure of the Nauru detention centre and transferring those remaining to Australia, with 42% opposed; and 35% in support of keeping them there indefinitely, with 43% opposed. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1025.

UPDATE: Full report here. Both major parties are up a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 38% and Labor to 37%, with the Greens reverting to 10% after a spike to 12% a fortnight ago, and One Nation up two to 7% after dropping three in the last poll. Scott Morrison is up six on approval to 43% and down three on disapproval to 28%, while Bill Shorten is respectively down three to 33% and down two to 45%.

The Guardian report focused on asylum seeker questions, but the other focus for the supplementary questions this week is the media. Thirty-six per cent offered that the government had too much influence on the ABC, 16% not enough, 17% about right and 31% don’t know, with Labor and Greens voters greatly more likely to offer the first response. Forty per cent felt ABC reporting was independent and unbiased and 34% the opposite – Labor and Greens supporters weighed more heavily towards the former, with Coalition supporters evenly split.

Also featured is an occasional “trust in media” question, along with a new question identifying specific news outlets. Despite all the fuss of late, results to both follow the usual patterns: public beats commercial, broadsheet beats tabloid, news beats tabloid, and there’s nothing lower than an “internet blog”. The Australian has a slight edge over the Fairfax papers, which I would hypothesise has something to do with the latter’s move to tabloid.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,060 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  2. @ItzaDream

    Slower than a wet week, I’ve finally grasped that Labor are running dead in Wentworth cos Phelps has to get to second spot to leap frog Sharma on preferences, which Labor couldn’t manage if the reverse were the case. I will put my mind and pencil to that end.

    That makes sense. I walked past a pre-poll booth in the city last week and was surprised there was no one handing out for ALP / Murray. Lot for Lib / Phelps etc.

  3. Also pleased to see GetUp on the ground in Wentworth, asking people to only support candidates that have a credible policy on climate change – I read that as put Lib last.

  4. DTT@8:59am
    1. He will become a good friend of Trump
    2. Brazil does not have Nuclear bomb
    So he will only trash his own people and not the whole world. A saving grace

  5. a r @ #140 Tuesday, October 9th, 2018 – 11:19 am

    Greensborough Growler @ #136 Tuesday, October 9th, 2018 – 10:14 am

    Itza,

    If 200,000 whining culture warriors are all you’ve got, then it’s not much.

    Why? Surely 200,000 anything wins against one bloviating, self-interested radio host?

    Out of a population of 5 mill it’s bugger all comrade.

    There are plenty that disagree, don’t care or think the virtue seekers are making a fool of themselves.

    If you don’t like Jones, don’t listen to him. It works for us in Melbourne.

  7. Morning all.
    More on the government’s argument that they will only consider emissions reduction if it doesn’t increase the cost of electricity.
    What if there is a proposal for say 35% renewable energy, with a cost reduction of $5 per MWhr. All figures are purely nominal.

    But the government’s coal friends respond with a proposal for new coal power with a $10 reduction. What proposal does the government support then?

  11. You’re missing or ignoring my point GG (or being deliberately obtuse, surely not 😉 ) which was that they won’t pull this stunt too quickly again. That’s why the resistance has paid off. It’s moved beyond Jones or racing or personalities – it’s hands off the Opera House. As I said, I wouldn’t expect you to understand; you haven’t got one.

  12. Real Mark Latham
    @RealMarkLatham

    Opposition to the Everest light show on the Sydney Opera House is snobbery, pure and simple.
    Wallabies and cricket acceptable to the ballet-and-soprano brigade but not the crassness of horse racing and its millions of ordinary, larrikin punters.
    So much for Leftie ‘inclusion’!!

  13. ItzaDream @ #161 Tuesday, October 9th, 2018 – 11:57 am

    You’re missing or ignoring my point GG (or being deliberately obtuse, surely not 😉 ) which was that they won’t pull this stunt too quickly again. That’s why the resistance has paid off. It’s moved beyond Jones or racing or personalities – it’s hands off the Opera House. As I said, I wouldn’t expect you to understand; you haven’t got one.

    Wot, a brain?

  14. Good Morning

    I hope you saw MediaWatch last night. Independence suites Paul Barry. That was the media watch I liked.

    No delay in fact checking the government on rising emissions. A great resource for Labor to refer to in the IPCC report response.

    Also for those that call the Greens pure you will have to call the IPCC scientists that as their call is exactly the Greens policy in relation to coal.

  15. a r,
    Tuesday, October 9, 2018 at 11:13 am
    —————————————

    The seat level polling is, at best, confirmatory evidence of what I regard as the best guide to the level of ALP-Lib TPP support in Wentworth: a judgement about the ALP-Lib lean of the seat, absent personal votes for an incumbent. Anyway, what makes you think an internal seat level poll is any more accurate than a published seat level poll, given there is a difference between the two?

    In 2004, the last time the Liberal candidate in Wentworth was not the incumbent, the ALP-Lib TPP was 47.5-52.5. Across NSW in that election, the ALP-Lib TPP was 48.1-51.9. So, in 2004, Wentworth leaned 0.6% more Liberal than NSW as a whole.

    In 2007, when the Liberal candidate was a sophomore incumbent, the ALP-Lib TPP was 46.1-53.9. Across NSW as a whole, the ALP-Lib TPP was 53.7-46.3, meaning Wentworth voted 7.6% more Liberal than NSW as a whole. But, that 7.6% included whatever incumbency bump MT received. These are typically around 3%. Deducting that leaves Wentworth leaning around 4.5% more Liberal than NSW as a whole in 2007, assuming MT’s personal vote wasn’t higher than average.

    Averaging these leans gives Wentworth a 2% lean to the Liberals, relative to NSW as a whole. Disregarding sophomore incumbency bump in 2007 would give Wentworth a 4% Liberal lean. Splitting the difference gives a lean of 3%, which is what I’m using.

    Now, the best measure we have for the current Federal ALP-Lib TPP across NSW is BludgerTrack. (If you think we have a better one, please share this.) This shows an ALP-Coal TPP of 52.4-47.6. Applying the Liberal lean of 3% to Wentworth to this baseline Lib TPP across NSW gives an ALP-Lib TPP in Wentworth of about 49.5-50.5.

    But this would be for a general election. In a by election, it is common for the Government’s TPP to be depressed. So, I believe the current level of ALP TPP support in Wentworth for this by election is 50-50, give or take 1 or 2 % (or maybe even better, now I think about typical Government TPP declines in by elections).

  16. So true.

    Catherine Ittner
    @catherineittner

    The IPCC Special Report “is like getting a troubling diagnosis from your doctor,” – said Texas Tech climate scientist, @KHayhoe. “Every possible test has been done and the news is not good.”

  17. The Sham Is Complete As Trump Falsely Declares Kavanaugh ‘Proven Innocent’ During Swearing-In

    The Republican sham to seat Brett Kavanaugh on the United States Supreme Court came full circle on Monday night as Donald Trump led the swearing-in of the accused sexual predator and under-oath liar during a live televised ceremony in the East Room of the White House.

    During his remarks straight from Bizarro World, Trump falsely claimed Kavanaugh was “proven innocent” just days after the conclusion of an FBI investigation that failed to interview dozens of witnesses that likely could have validated the multiple allegations against the new Supreme Court justice.

    “On behalf of our nation, I want to apologize to Brett and the entire Kavanaugh family for the terrible pain and suffering you have been forced to endure,” Trump said, already destroying any attempt at unity at the beginning of the ceremony. “I must state that you, sir, under historic scrutiny, were proven innocent.”

    https://www.politicususa.com/2018/10/08/sham-complete-trump-kavanaugh-proven-innocent.html

  18. adrian

    like getting a troubling diagnosis from your doctor

    And just like any other patient, some deny the diagnosis, some leave it to fate (or their god) and some set out to defeat the illness.

  19. adrian

    The IPCC Special Report “is like getting a troubling diagnosis from your doctor,” – said Texas Tech climate scientist, @KHayhoe. “Every possible test has been done and the news is not good.”

    Unfortunately Pastor Fozzie’s church is big on ‘divine healing’. So doctors shmoctors.

  20. Greensborough Growler @ #155 Tuesday, October 9th, 2018 – 10:45 am

    Out of a population of 5 mill it’s bugger all comrade.

    Perhaps. But 200,000 out of 5 million is still a hell of a lot more than 1 out of 5 million. By a factor of, I don’t know, about exactly 200,000.

    There are plenty that disagree, don’t care or think the virtue seekers are making a fool of themselves.

    Okay, then where’s their petition in support of advertising Alan Joyce’s little pet project on the side of the Opera House? How many signatures does it have?

    If there are people out there who hold that view, then let them say so. If they’re undeclared, then they count only as undeclared. If you want to count them as supporters on your side, then get them to declare their support.

    Although I seem to recall similar arguments being floated around the time of the marriage equality debate. The thinking nonsense being something to the effect of “only a small percentage of the population are actually vocal in their support for marriage equality; and while they’re very loud and get a lot of attention, everybody else who hasn’t explicitly declared support is actually opposed to the idea and will quietly oppose it in a landslide”.

    The lesson then is the same as the lesson now. Undeclared means undeclared, and nothing else.

  25. adrian says:
    Tuesday, October 9, 2018 at 11:57 am
    Real Mark Latham
    @RealMarkLatham

    Opposition to the Everest light show on the Sydney Opera House is snobbery, pure and simple.
    Wallabies and cricket acceptable to the ballet-and-soprano brigade but not the crassness of horse racing and its millions of ordinary, larrikin punters.
    So much for Leftie ‘inclusion’!!
    —————————————

    Glad to see “@RealMarkLatham” is going in to bat for all those poor disadvantaged thoroughbred owners and gambling barons.

    Meanwhile, if you check his feed for instances of him standing up for abused women on (or over) the edge of poverty and homelessness…

  27. Nicholas

    I disagree on UBI vs Job Guarantee. I give the new Monetay Theory credit for understanding that economics needs to be redone due to outdated assumptions.

    Of the Classics Keynesian is still the best economic model out there.

    On the UBI inflationary effect. It will only be as inflationary as the GST is deflating. So a balance is achieved. As for subsidising wages. Thatss another way of saying guaranteeing the minimum wage and forcing Employers to negotiate with the nimimum wage as the floor before negotiations start, Not put the minimum wage up for negotiation.

  28. Michael

    Latham also missing the point it is about The Parrot’s behavior, the success of such behavior and a spineless Premier.

  29. Michael McCormack has made it to the front page of the English Guardian website. He backed Coal, no surprise as leader of the Miners Party, but also referred to the IPCC release as, ‘some kind of report ‘.
    *sigh*

    I guess it’s what happens when you let ignorant fools run a country.

  30. It’s often intrigued me just how pervasive Horse Racing Culture and networking is at the “elite” level in Australian society.

    You’re nobody unless you own a share in a horse, or parade with the glitterati at Randwick, Flemington etc.

    I guess it’s a throwback to the good old days of the “sport of kings”, maybe even the colonial vibe.

    Then there’s the demonstrated fact that it’s almost impossible to walk into a pub practically anywhere nowadays without being surrounded by TAB screens, betting slips, and slightly sozzled gamblers “having a punt”.

    Punters nowadays are depicted as 20-somethings on a boozy Saturday arvo actually having fun losing their money.

    Weird.

  32. Itza,
    I’m home, super son isn’t. And this morning I have been trying to intercede, on his behalf, between dueling clinicians in a turf war! They both want my son to have his next op at their hospital!
    *sigh*

  33. OH made me laugh with this comment on today’s Essential Report.

    Q: Do you think that the Government has too much or not enough influence
    over the ABC?
    A: Vote Lib/Nat, Don’t know: 28%

    OH comment, “Seems most of them don’t know much, which sounds about right.”

  36. How often do pollies agree/disagree with something they haven’t even read, parroting the accepted wisdom of the Party without thought.

    On Monday McCormack told Sky News coalmining was “very, very important” because it provided 60% of Australia’s electricity, 50,000 jobs and was Australia’s largest export.

    McCormack said he “understands the concerns” expressed in the IPCC report, but admitted he hadn’t read it yet. “I’ll certainly consider what it has to say. But the fact is, coalmining … and coal-fired power stations do play an important part of our energy mix in Australia and will do so going forward.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/09/australian-government-backs-coal-defiance-ipcc-climate-warning

  38. lizzie

    McCormack is losing National Party voters by the bucket load. Farmers know the climate. They know they are in a drought. They know prayers and political rhetoric don’t help. They face reality every day.

    Unlike the Truckers that backed Jones and Abbbott.

  39. Also, there’s a new punting demographic. The Aussie male, with his betting app on his phone, watching the racing channel, sitting at home, sinking a few coldies, sitting in his grundies. 🙂

  49. poroti says:
    Tuesday, October 9, 2018 at 12:15 pm
    Michael

    Latham also missing the point it is about The Parrot’s behavior, the success of such behavior and a spineless Premier.
    ————————————-

    That is a good point, but I think you underestimate the degree of public anger at yet another instance of a bloated, rapacious commercial interest highjacking a space that is meant to both belong to all of us, and to enhance our lives and not degrade them (ie, by abetting gambling and all its ills). The movement that has been unleashed by this naked power grab of Racing NSW and the shadowy interests behind them is rallying more strongly around the cry “Hands Off Our Opera House!”, than around any cry involving bullying and capitulation. In this, it is springing naturally off, and further adding to, the cry of “Hands off our ABC!” I think the Right in this country are in for a rude shock when they see how offensive the notion of corporate capture of public national institutions is to most Australians.

    None of this is to imply that Alan Jones’s on-air bullying of Louise Herron, or Premier Berejiklian’s incomprehensibly craven capitulation to it, is anything other than completely unacceptable. This process highlights both misogynistic bullying (on Jones’s part) and political cronyism (on Berejiklian’s). Thus, it links in with two other deep concerns people have with our wider social and political culture.

    But please don’t dismiss the “corporate capture of what’s really meant for all of us” aspect to this.

  50. Deputy PM Michael McCormack says policy will not change based on ‘some sort of report’

    When does this become criminal negligence?

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