It’s been a quiet week on the poll front, and indeed it’s worth noting that polling generally is thinner on the ground than it used to be – the once weekly Essential Research series went fortnightly at the start of the year, neither Sky News nor Seven has been treating us to federal ReachTEL polls like they used to, and even the Fairfax-Ipsos poll has pared back its sample sizes in recent times from 1400 to 1200. I suspect we won’t be getting the normally-fortnightly Newspoll on Sunday night either, as these are usually timed to coincide with the resumption of parliament, for which we will have to wait another week. I can at least relate the following:
• The Guardian has results from a ReachTEL poll of Wentworth conducted for independent candidate Licia Heath, conducted last Thursday from a sample of 727. After exclusion of the 5.6% undecided the results are Dave Sharma (Liberal) 43.0%; Tim Murray (Labor) 20.7%; Kerryn Phelps (independent) 17.9%; Licia Heath (independent) 10.0% and Dominic Wy Kanak (Greens) 6.6%. The poll also comes with a 51-49 Liberal-versus-Labor two-party result, but this a) assumes Tim Murray would not be overtaken by Kerryn Phelps after allocation of preferences, and b) credits Labor with over three-quarters of independent and minor party preferences, which seems highly implausible. The poll also reportedly finds “as many as 52% of people said high-profile independent candidate Kerryn Phelps’ decision to preference the Liberals made it less likely they would give her their vote”, but this would seem to be a complex issue given Phelps’s flip-flop on the subject.
• The Guardian also has results of polling by ReachTEL for the Australian Education Union on the federal goverment’s funding deal for Catholic and independent schools, conducted last Thursday from a sample of 1261 respondents in Corangamite, Dunkley, Forde, Capricornia, Flynn, Gilmore, Robertson and Banks. The report dwells too much on what the small sub-sample of undecided voters thought, but it does at least relate that 38.6% of all respondents said the deal made them less likely to vote Liberal.
• Back to Wentworth, I had a paywalled article on the subject in Crikey, and took part in a mostly Wentworth-related podcast yesterday with Ben Raue of The Tally Room, along with Georgia Tkachuk of Collins Gartrell, which you can access below.
DaretoTread @ #96 Friday, October 5th, 2018 – 9:38 am
You have another?
Puffy
All Labor has to do is say Boat Turnbacks are working.
No need for the indefinite detention Labor opposes.
That was a very good point by Mr Bernard Keane.
If boat turn backs are not working of course thats another victory for Labor in political points.
Also how high do AS arriving by boats really resonate in Western Sydney vs 457 visas and worker exploitation? Thats the marginal seats Labor is scared of losing.
I think Sally McManus nailed it and the LNP have lost this as an issue. Thats why I think we are seeing Labor so far ahead in the polls. The whole fear of boats thing only worked for two reasons. Visions of floods of people. Thus the “Open Borders” rhetoric. People drowning in front of television cameras.
Thats it.
On all those fronts Labor is in a sound position to prosecute looking after human rights and speaking up loudly about that and the secrecy without losing marginal seat votes.
Without the fear the natural look after human rights takes precedence.
says:
Friday, October 5, 2018 at 7:31 am
BK @ #17 Friday, October 5th, 2018 – 7:22 am
C@t
Morrison has quickly become a stuntmeister.
And he’s handing out plenty of bread to go with the circuses as well.
————————————
Lots of bread, but only to the fortunate few who already have plenty. Eg, the religious schools handout of public bread.
What does it say in the Gospels? “To those who have more, more will be given, but from those who have little, even what little they have will be taken away.”
BW
It would need to be a big one to have any real impact politically if petrol hits $2 a litre. Could be a big hit to the budget.
”
phoenixRED says:
Friday, October 5, 2018 at 9:49 am
Brian Krassenstein @krassenstein
Things that make you go “hmmmmmmmmmmmmm”
Russian Official Tied To Trump Tower Meeting Killed In Helicopter Crash
”
PhoenixRED, Not that it matters much in current world your link doesn’t say where Russian Deputy Attorney General Saak Albertovich is killed? Apparently according to the report, he was a confidante of Putin. Who will benefit from his death?
Pseudo Cud Chewer @ #131 Friday, October 5th, 2018 – 10:04 am
Okay, back home.
However, my point is that if you combined that with 3rd country resettlement you will always get some people coming by boat in order to get to a 3rd country.
Um, or they could just cut out the middle man, Australia, and go directly to the third country, and if they are a signatory to the UN Refugee Convention then they have to assess their application in the same way any other country does. Thinking also that, all countries in Australia’s Regional Resettlement Plan were. Or had committed to do it.
The argument that we are doing this to avoid people drowning or that somehow a closed borders policy can be achieved without harming people is simply not proven.
Piffle.
I, for one, am glad we no longer have scores of asylum seekers drowning at sea and/or being dashed against the rocks of Christmas Island trying to get here, aren’t you?
However, if you are instead trying to make a reductio ad absurdem argument that, ‘we’, ie Australia, are still ‘harming people’, non-specific, unknown people, somewhere, in some far flung holding camp, in Indonesia, presumably, in order to support the flimsy basis for your ‘argument’, then all I can say is that that is one, very long, very flimsy bow of false equivalence to draw.
Also, Australia does not have a ‘closed borders policy’, we are welcoming people that cross our borders every day, for one reason or another. However, it is not unreasonable, and has historically been the case, that we, as a sovereign nation, assert control over who and what comes into this country.
This extends to who we choose to accept as refugees.
“guytaur says:
Friday, October 5, 2018 at 9:42 am
”
Is Port Augusta near Whyalla?
Player One @ #151 Friday, October 5th, 2018 – 10:17 am
Multiple Persona-lities. 😉
ven
They are both in South Australia 🙂
It all depends on how you define near. In a big country like Australia that can qualify as near.
“Labor you must speak up on AS policy of indefinite detention being torture”
There you go Labor: Guytaur was given you your orders: Unto the guns you must go!
I am reminded of that other great strategist’s similar order:
“Lord Raglan wishes the cavalry to advance to the front, and try to prevent the enemy carrying away the guns. Troop of horse artillery may accompany. French cavalry is on your left. Immediately. R”
C@tmomma @ #158 Friday, October 5th, 2018 – 10:24 am
The thing about Cassandra is not just that she wasn’t believed, it was that she was right.
I guess DTT is half way there 🙂
Andrew Earlwood.
Yes NSW rights answer is ignore human rights that fear of losing some marginal seat votes is the go to strategy default.
Despite Labor’s proud history of upholding human rights. The NSW right has rolled over and bought the LNP’s bait hook line and sinker. No wonder Labor is wedged.
This when its clear that all you have to say is boat turn backs are working and we oppose indefinite detention.
Its called owning your policies.
And that’s why today we all remember Lord Raglan’s supreme victory.
”
guytaur says:
Friday, October 5, 2018 at 10:25 am
ven
They are both in South Australia
It all depends on how you define near. In a big country like Australia that can qualify as near.
”
Guytaur, I am talking from ‘Whyalla Wipeout’ point of view
Guytaur, you say of the latest poll in Wentworth:
“Its good to see polling with Labor in front but never forget its the preferences that will do it.
Those LNP preferences are going to be the decider and I think Phelps not Labor will get the majority of those. I hope I am wrong but thats how I see it.”
This in support of your view that Phelps is a better chance than Murray to oust the Liberals.
But Lib preferences would only come into play if Sharma fell to third in the penultimate count. With 43% primary, this is mathematically impossible. There is no way Lib preferences can decide between Phelps and Murray, as long as Sharma’s primary remains 34% or above.
This makes your reason for judging Phelps a better chance than Murray to oust the Liberals bogus. (Not that this would exclude other reasons for thinking this.)
Just saying.
ven
So was I 🙂
Cud Chewer – I did read your last reply on rail connections yesterday afternoon, but I’d had a long and trying day in court so really couldn’t focus much on it. Once I’ve recharged the coffee batteries and got my ducks in a row I’ll have a re-read and get back to you. Promise!
What does it say in the Gospels? “To those who have more, more will be given, but from those who have little, even what little they have will be taken away.”
Yes, in the Pentecostalist Prosperity Gospel. 🙂
michael
Sorry. I should have said I am pessimistic that Labor is in front with individual seat polling reliability.
Thats where I am hoping the polling is more accurate than I think it is.
Right now, I’m sitting here waiting for our Pentecostalist PM to proclaim that his prayers for rain were answered.
*sigh*
ar
What an arrogant and slightly disrespectful thing to say of Malaysia.
Nauru is a tiny island totally dependent on aid from Australia and other places and its pretense at being a democracy is vert thin.
Malaysia is a large country with a working democracy. Malaysia is also a divided nation with ethnic tensions already present between Malayans and Chinese and indians as well as religious tensions.
The possibility of one or other political candidate deliberately fanning the flames or anti asylum seekers (and anti Australia) is quite high.
That is why I felt that the Malaysian solution had a lot of potential but ONLY if Malaysia had demonstrated commitment. This could have been by signing the Human Rights Treaty, by passing a law of some kind or even a joint public statement by the PM and LOTO. In the absence of such public commitment i fet the idea was doomed to fail.
ven says: Friday, October 5, 2018 at 10:20 am
PhoenixRED, Not that it matters much in current world your link doesn’t say where Russian Deputy Attorney General Saak Albertovich is killed? Apparently according to the report, he was a confidante of Putin. Who will benefit from his death?
********************************************************
Ven – I found this article from The Moscow Times :
A leading law enforcement official has been killed in a helicopter crash in central Russia.
Russia’s Investigative Committee said three bodies were identified in the Kostroma region crash. It opened a criminal case into safety rule violations that led to the deadly crash. The incident became the second aviation accident this week after a helicopter crashed in Siberia on Monday, killing two passengers.
The Prosecutor General’s Office confirmed to news agencies that deputy prosecutor Saak Karapetyan was among the victims.
https://themoscowtimes.com/news/senior-russian-prosecutor-killed-helicopter-crash-63083
Lots more reports in Google News …..
“Yes NSW rights answer is ignore human rights that fear of losing some marginal seat votes is the go to strategy default.”
No the NSW Right’s answer is to actually try to win the battles one must fight, not blow up one’s own Calvary just for ‘la glory’ …
Labor has made its position clear. It should stick to that. It should certainly not chose to fight on the only remaining ground that advantages the enemy.
Andrew Earlwood
So own your polices. Stand up for Human Rights.
Labor opposes indefinite detention and the torture of refugees that results from that.
I am not saying Labor should adopt the Greens policy of opposing offshore detention.
Zoomster
The reason why you are wrong about this is pretty simple.
Its easy to get on a boat and sail from Indonesia to Malaysia. But when you get there, you don’t get a nice reception.
If, on the other hand Australia creates an official channel where your resettlement is sanctioned, you have legal status and some social welfare, you’ve got a much better chance.
The simple fact here is that if Australia has a 3rd country resettlement scheme, people will head towards Australia by boat in order to participate in the scheme.
These guys have 235 years inexperience with women.
https://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/1047924270435844096
C@t:
Actually, when the two parties have wildly different stances on the issue – you can.
The Malaysia Solution went directly against one of the Greens’ core policy platforms, whereas there was no rational reason for the Coalition to oppose it beyond political opportunism. Had the Greens voted for the Malaysia Solution, they would have essentially gone against one of the main issues they stand for and have alienated great swathes of their own base. By contrast, the Coalition would have lost nothing from voting for it, apart from what they stood to gain from having boats continue to arrive and people continue to drown while Labor was in government.
This wasn’t a case of the Greens going against their beliefs and cynically siding with the Coalition to make things harder for Labor. It was a case of the Coalition going against their beliefs and cynically siding with the Greens to make things harder for Labor.
Sure, you can criticize the broader policy positions of the Greens and its supporters that led to that decision being a necessity, but to expect that the Greens could have voted for the Malaysia Solution without committing electoral suicide is to draw a pretty long bow.
DTT – Malaysia accepting asylum seekers in batches of 1,000 from Australia in return for Australia taking batches of 4,000 mainly Rohinga refugees presented no problems for the Malaysians whatsoever. …
Frack, what am I doing! I wont be drawn into your vortex any further today!
Andrew ok thanks.
DaretoTread @ #170 Friday, October 5th, 2018 – 10:33 am
Potkettle much? 🙂
I little part of me dies every time I listen to an excerpt of a Trump campaign rally ‘speech’. This one at Minnesota is no exception. In fact, I am more freaked out than usual.
So thank you George Washington for setting the precedent and thank you to all those who pushed for and voted for Amendment XXII.
C@tmomma @ #170 Friday, October 5th, 2018 – 10:32 am
Not here. As I predicted yesterday, the sun is back today, the temperature is back up, the ground is dry again, and the rivers have not risen one inch from the rain we had over the last 24 hours. This is because the ground is still so dry it just sucks up whatever rain we do get. There is no runoff.
Like most of NSW, we are still a long way from having the drought broken 🙁
C@t see my above reply to zoomster
“So own your polices. Stand up for Human Rights.
Labor opposes indefinite detention and the torture of refugees that results from that.”
Full page ads! All pressers must be about this!
Unto the guns I say! Damn it Flashman! Immediately. Haw Haw!
C@t if we combine a “no resettlement in Australia” policy with a durable 3rd country resettlement process, we will have a flow of people getting on boats in order to participate in our scheme.
And yes, some people will drown in the process.
You cannot escape moral consequences of maintaining the illusion of controlled borders. Life just isn’t going to cooperate with simple solutions.
Michael says:
Friday, October 5, 2018 at 10:29 am
Guytaur, you say of the latest poll in Wentworth:
“Its good to see polling with Labor in front but never forget its the preferences that will do it.
Those LNP preferences are going to be the decider and I think Phelps not Labor will get the majority of those. I hope I am wrong but thats how I see it.”
This in support of your view that Phelps is a better chance than Murray to oust the Liberals.
But Lib preferences would only come into play if Sharma fell to third in the penultimate count. With 43% primary, this is mathematically impossible. There is no way Lib preferences can decide between Phelps and Murray, as long as Sharma’s primary remains 34% or above.
This makes your reason for judging Phelps a better chance than Murray to oust the Liberals bogus. (Not that this would exclude other reasons for thinking this.)
Just saying.
__________________
Guytaur’s meaning is often hard to work out.
If we assume Sharma is 34% or above, then as you say the preferences after his primary vote will not matter.
There is a large field, and the preferences are distributed from the lowest vote progressively, as we know. This will be pretty much unforecastable, I would imagine, in terms of where those preferences flow.
But let us suppose the last three standing are Sharma, Phelps and Murray.
The interesting thing will be who gets the third spot. If it is Phelps, and the voters follow her instructions to preference the Libs, then Sharma will be likely to get in. But there will be significant leakage to Labor as well.
If Labor is third, their preferences may well flow to Phelps, in which case Phelps may get in – but there will be a small leakage to the LNP, I would presume, from those who don’t want Phelps, which might tip the balance to Sharma, depending on the allocated preferences at that point.
Looks like a very interesting by-election, just in pseph terms, let alone the wider issues.
There are so many issues bouncing around this morning. The irony surrounding outcomes were so warmly debated years ago.
In 1972 the voters knew they needed to be rid of a self serving, out of touch government. The LNP attempting to maintain the status quo, was demanding that a quickly changing population and different values, were to be ignored and voters told to accept the unacceptable. The LNP were booted.
The current LNP seem to think that climate change denial, coal and fossil fuels, Anglo-Australia, corporate fraud, land ownership, lower class wages, refugee discrimination, church influence, population growth and control,and their privileged position should go on indefinitely. Then there’s the reality.
Wentworth may not alter the current incumbency nor the Abbott/Turnbull/Morrison government until the LNP are forced to go to an election.
Imagine the mindset of voters if this current LNP were to still be in power in four years! That’s certainly their intention!
It would be no surprise to see the LNP, if they win Wentworth, to insist on a half election before the 2019 budget and delay the next election until November 2019.
Their sense of entitlement has no boundaries. Abbott, Hockey, Robb, Turnbull, Bishop, Bishop, Robert, Mirabella, Joyce, Fifield or Pyne. The list is endless. The contemptuous disregard for the voters they claim to represent is dumbfounding.
The LNP have displayed incredible cruelty in electing Morrison. Their bullying untethered.
The masses in Australia should be commended for their tolerance and goodwill in allowing this current mob to remain in control.
* addendum. If we go to considerable effort to process people in Indonesia and provide people with flights to 3rd party countries, we will substantially reduce that flow. But its not perfect.
Andrew Earlwood
This discussion came about because the media are asking.
Then Rex did his usual schtick.
I am differentiating my position from Rex.
The point I am making is the politics has changed. Labor needs to recognise this if it wants to remove the LNP wedge.
Trump is changing the ball game on boats. So has Dutton and Fraser Anning.
So has Sally McManus.
The fear thing is losing its bite. Precisely because as we are told boat turn backs are working. I don’t see why Labor can’t use this for its advantage other than fear that standing up for human rights will lose them votes in Western Sydney.
I think that fear is overblown and Labor can stand up for human rights on this just like they do for unions and Indigenous people. I think its a vote winner not a vote loser. Precisely because Labor has adopted the boat turn back policy.
Pseudo Cud Chewer @ #185 Friday, October 5th, 2018 – 10:43 am
Actually, this sounds like a good solution.
PCC,
I think that hostile reception is partly apocryphal, so as to discourage a flood of refugees, and, yes, I have read the accounts of the treatment of refugees in Malaysia. However, that was under the previous regime and before Malaysia signed the Refugee Convention. So, now they can’t do it and they have a new government which is far more respectful of human rights than the last. Anwar Ibrahim will see to it.
Plus, the simple fact they are a Muslim majority country with a Muslim leader now.
“Labor opposes indefinite detention and the torture of refugees that results from that.”
This actually goes without saying – there’d be no benefit in Labor making a big announcement about it; in fact it would likely hurt them.
They don’t need to win back votes from now-Green voters – they need to secure votes from Conservative Coalition voters.
Thankfully Guytaur, Labor strategists are not taking your advice.
Andrew Earlwood
Actually Neumann did come out and stand up for human rights. Labor’s polls have not fallen as a result.
If anything they have improved.
When I say Labor should say more on human rights I am saying not being afraid to mention it when asked. I am not talking about running campaign advertisements like the Greens do.
Remember I am not Rex and have different view point to him.
You are running the issue as dead but not conceding the bottom line. There has to be a bottom line for Labor otherwise it would be the LNP
C@t the nicer the Malaysian government is and the more humane a Malaysian settlement strategy is, the more likely it is people will get on boats and head towards Australia in order to participate in the scheme. Again the caveat is that if we were more proactive in Indonesia we could circumvent this to some extent. But, that all depends on the numbers.
And for once dtt is right. There’s lots of local Malaysian politics to contend with. They may not be enough places for this kind of approach.
I simply urge people to think the unthinkable. Actually resettle people in Australia who are refugees and proactively seek these people before they get on boats.
Now C@t I also agree with you that this is politically infeasible. That Labor is (sadly) best to hold its nose. My anger is directed at the Australian public for this. Because there is no totally humane solution that doesn’t involve mostly open borders.
Just wait a decade or two for the waves of climate refugees fleeing Bangladesh etc.
Puffytmd @ #130 Friday, October 5th, 2018 – 10:02 am
One of the things that really galled me about it was the fact that conscripts at 18 didn’t have the right to vote, but our gutless politicians gave them the right to die.
CC
so why would you sail from Indonesia to Malaysia? Surely you’d just stay put (I’m really surprised to find that Indonesia is apparently some kind of hell hole, a bit worrying as my son is about to spend 2 months working there…)
Or go to a country which isn’t Malaysia.
…and, again, why the obsession of the fate of refugees in Indonesia? (I repeat: not a hellhole). There are displaced persons living in far, far worse conditions than virtually anyone in Indonesia does.
“I don’t see why Labor can’t use this for its advantage other than fear that standing up for human rights will lose them votes in Western Sydney.”
Why still the concern for Western Sydney? It’s a sea of red there and was even following 2013.
Pseudo Cud Chewer @ #185 Friday, October 5th, 2018 – 10:43 am
C@t if we combine a “no resettlement in Australia” policy with a durable 3rd country resettlement process, we will have a flow of people getting on boats in order to participate in our scheme.
Can’t agree. At the time there was credible evidence to show that asylum seekers would definitely prefer to have been given residency in Australia. So, to keep offering them another country to go to would deter them.
And yes, some people will drown in the process.
Sorry, but you’ll never get me accepting that as a natural consequence of accepting boat arrivals. Especially considering the evidence I have accumulated about the lengths People Traffickers go to in order to maximise their profits at the expense of the asylum seekers’ safety at sea.
You cannot escape moral consequences of maintaining the illusion of controlled borders. Life just isn’t going to cooperate with simple solutions.
You CAN try to minimise the perils, however. Plus, Border Control is a necessity. It benefits us all in so many ways.
Also, it’s you who seems to believe in ‘simple solutions’. That is, the noble asylum seeker, pitching and tossing across the waves to Australia in order to seek our succour. Such a romantic notion, at odds with reality.