Further Friday free-for-all

Amid an otherwise quiet week for polling, a privately conducted ReachTEL poll offers further evidence the Liberals are on shaky ground in Wentworth.

It’s been a quiet week on the poll front, and indeed it’s worth noting that polling generally is thinner on the ground than it used to be – the once weekly Essential Research series went fortnightly at the start of the year, neither Sky News nor Seven has been treating us to federal ReachTEL polls like they used to, and even the Fairfax-Ipsos poll has pared back its sample sizes in recent times from 1400 to 1200. I suspect we won’t be getting the normally-fortnightly Newspoll on Sunday night either, as these are usually timed to coincide with the resumption of parliament, for which we will have to wait another week. I can at least relate the following:

• The Guardian has results from a ReachTEL poll of Wentworth conducted for independent candidate Licia Heath, conducted last Thursday from a sample of 727. After exclusion of the 5.6% undecided the results are Dave Sharma (Liberal) 43.0%; Tim Murray (Labor) 20.7%; Kerryn Phelps (independent) 17.9%; Licia Heath (independent) 10.0% and Dominic Wy Kanak (Greens) 6.6%. The poll also comes with a 51-49 Liberal-versus-Labor two-party result, but this a) assumes Tim Murray would not be overtaken by Kerryn Phelps after allocation of preferences, and b) credits Labor with over three-quarters of independent and minor party preferences, which seems highly implausible. The poll also reportedly finds “as many as 52% of people said high-profile independent candidate Kerryn Phelps’ decision to preference the Liberals made it less likely they would give her their vote”, but this would seem to be a complex issue given Phelps’s flip-flop on the subject.

• The Guardian also has results of polling by ReachTEL for the Australian Education Union on the federal goverment’s funding deal for Catholic and independent schools, conducted last Thursday from a sample of 1261 respondents in Corangamite, Dunkley, Forde, Capricornia, Flynn, Gilmore, Robertson and Banks. The report dwells too much on what the small sub-sample of undecided voters thought, but it does at least relate that 38.6% of all respondents said the deal made them less likely to vote Liberal.

• Back to Wentworth, I had a paywalled article on the subject in Crikey, and took part in a mostly Wentworth-related podcast yesterday with Ben Raue of The Tally Room, along with Georgia Tkachuk of Collins Gartrell, which you can access below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,606 comments on “Further Friday free-for-all”

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  1. poroti @ 12.49pm

    The video of the black car doing a 3 point turn in the face of an oncoming tsunami is heart stopping but I’m afraid it’s yet another example of the misinformation that spreads like wildfire through social media these days.

    That footage was actually of a tsunami in Japan in 2011. It was published on YouTube on 13 Dec 2013.

    https://youtu.be/-Ad-Sq3nwWw

  4. allan moyes

    Thanks for that confirmation. I suspected it due to the script , also the houses and cars. There were some truly mind boggling videos from that tsunami.

  5. Tristo: “I actually believe Christine Blasey Ford’s allegations of attempted sexual assault of her by Kavanuagh. What she said was exactly what my female friends have said about their sexual assaults. Kavanaugh lied about his heavy drinking when younger which led him to black out on occasion. Therefore; he very likely did not remember the sexual assault.”

    I hope for your sake that you are never convicted of any crime on the basis of that level of evidence. It doesn’t even reach the level of balance of probability, let alone beyond reasonable doubt.

  7. meher baba

    In the US if you asked for someone who was raped by intergalactic beings you would have multiple people swearing on their mothers’ grave that they were. A nation hungry for their 15 minutes of fame. Which is a bummer for people genuinely wronged.

  8. To elaborate it would have to be a seat where the Liberal/National candidate polled a reasonably high primary vote (say around 42-44%) where the Labor and Green candidates would have to be reasonably close in terms of primary (26-30% apiece) and where at least 20-30% of Labor primary voters would be willing to preference the Liberal candidate over the Green candidate (usually it’s 15-20%).

    So this would happen in zero out of 150 House electorates in this universe. Or in a House electorate in an alternate universe.

  9. Boerwar,

    Thanks for your reply.

    There are plenty of stories around re Mr Robert so I was just wondering if something else may have been reported.

    As I posted previously I would be surprised if the Internet story is the only ” mis step ” that floats into the MSM.

    He does like to travel overseas.

    We shall see.

    Cheers.

  11. I didn’t realise that in the US they charge people accused of sexual assault by nominating them to the Supreme Court.

    You learn something new everyday.

  12. Diogenes @ #845 Saturday, October 6th, 2018 – 1:39 pm

    “When you have a look at The Everest, it is the richest race on turf in the world which is bringing in tourists and visitors to Sydney to the tune of about $100 million in the local economy.

    Hmmm. Then i guess it’s like the “rivers of gold” that would flow into Sydney during and after the Olympics. Strange how the official report into how much money it did bring in is a state secret and deemed “not in the public interest to disclose”.

    Or the fortune that flows into Melbourne for the Grand Prix, but likewise is not in the public interest to disclose.

    And now the Minister For Racing plucks the $100 million figure out of his arse and there are still people gullible enough to believe shit like that, huh?

    Did I mention as well the “enormous amounts of money” that WA would get by hosting the Americas Cup challenge back in 1987?

  13. Tristo @ #861 Saturday, October 6th, 2018 – 4:18 pm

    I actually believe Christine Blasey Ford’s allegations of attempted sexual assault of her by Kavanuagh. What she said was exactly what my female friends have said about their sexual assaults. Kavanaugh lied about his heavy drinking when younger which led him to black out on occasion. Therefore; he very likely did not remember the sexual assault.

    From now on who knows how many politicians and judges in America are going to have their careers ruined, by women coming forward to accuse them of sexually assault them in past. Christine Blasey Ford is a trailblazer and a heroine in my opinion.

    A hero she is. And I would like to think careers would be ruined by their assault of their accusers. And it is not clear to me that Kavanaugh’s career is ruined. If anything I think Ford’s career might be the one ruined.

  16. Nicholas @ #958 Saturday, October 6th, 2018 – 6:54 pm

    To elaborate it would have to be a seat where the Liberal/National candidate polled a reasonably high primary vote (say around 42-44%) where the Labor and Green candidates would have to be reasonably close in terms of primary (26-30% apiece) and where at least 20-30% of Labor primary voters would be willing to preference the Liberal candidate over the Green candidate (usually it’s 15-20%).

    So this would happen in zero out of 150 House electorates in this universe. Or in a House electorate in an alternate universe.

    There is a small chance it could happen in Melbourne Ports/Macnamara (though probably not next election) and it could possibly keep Higgins out of The Greens hands down the line:

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/mpor/
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/higg/

    (This effect could also work the other way hypothetically – enough Green voters preferencing the Liberal candidate so that a Liberal wins over Labor if they win second place but I want to emphasize this is very unlikely.)

  18. The poll also revealed that as many as 52% of people said high-profile independent candidate Kerryn Phelps’ decision to preference the Liberals made it less likely they would give her their vote. That included 50% of Phelps’ own supporters.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/04/wentworth-byelection-liberal-vote-collapses-as-poll-shows-safe-seat-now-a-close-contest

    What a bizarre own goal by Kerryn Phelps. Politics is difficult but why would you make it even harder by blowing the easy calls? The government is unpopular. The people of Wentworth liked Malcolm Turnbull and don’t like the politicians who removed him. How hard would it have been to say, “I am unhappy with this government and I don’t approve of what they did to Malcolm Turnbull. Elect me and you will get a forceful independent voice in Canberra. Rely on your conscience to decide how to allocate your preferences.”

  19. Its not like without horse abuse we wouldn’t find alternative ways to spend and misspend money or that there wouldn’t be equally lucrative events happening, just not involving abusing horses..

  20. Millennial @ #966 Saturday, October 6th, 2018 – 7:08 pm

    Nicholas @ #958 Saturday, October 6th, 2018 – 6:54 pm

    To elaborate it would have to be a seat where the Liberal/National candidate polled a reasonably high primary vote (say around 42-44%) where the Labor and Green candidates would have to be reasonably close in terms of primary (26-30% apiece) and where at least 20-30% of Labor primary voters would be willing to preference the Liberal candidate over the Green candidate (usually it’s 15-20%).

    So this would happen in zero out of 150 House electorates in this universe. Or in a House electorate in an alternate universe.

    There is a small chance it could happen in Melbourne Ports/Macnamara (though probably not next election) and it could possibly keep Higgins out of The Greens hands down the line:

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/mpor/
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/higg/

    (This effect could also work the other way hypothetically – enough Green voters preferencing the Liberal candidate so that a Liberal wins over Labor if they win second place but I want to emphasize this is very unlikely.)

    (Though I doubt it will happen in Higgins because Labor’s vote is so low that it probably wouldn’t matter in the end.)

  22. ‘mikehilliard says:
    Saturday, October 6, 2018 at 7:09 pm

    Been out of the loop all day but I see Hewson has tossed a nuke into the Wentworth campaign. Good on him.’

    Yep. Good on him!

  23. Shame Hewson is advocating Keryn.

    The interesting question for me is this.

    If enough people lodge a protest vote with Keryn, could the exact same people also end up preferencing Labor after Keryn and above the Liberal?

    Labor may not get above Keryn on first preferences but the minor parties are likely to attract a lot of people who are pissed about things like climate change and those votes could strongly flow to Labor, getting it just ahead of Keryn. Then its a matter of Keryn’s preferences.

  25. As a former Member for Wentworth some 25 years ago, how much weight would Hewson’s advice carry with voters today?

    I’m thinking not much.

  29. poroti: “It’s the symbolism. A former MP, a former national leader saying vote someone else is Yuuge.”

    Hewson has been totally alienated from the Libs for a very long time now. I don’t think his intervention will affect the thinking of too many voters.

  31. I have been around racehorses before today and after seeing how well they are looked after, I would say they would be among the most pampered animals on the planet.

  32. In one of the polls Wentworth voters chose global warming as their most important issue.
    Having Hewson get up and remind everyone that after 30 years the Liberals do not have an energy policy and do not have an emissions policy is significant, IMO.
    In the Wagga Wagga by-election the smashed Liberal was a climate science denialist.

    Eventually it might get through to the Coalition Parties that kowtowing to coal is sooo yesterday.

  33. ‘Puffytmd says:
    Saturday, October 6, 2018 at 7:26 pm

    I have been around racehorses before today and after seeing how well they are looked after, I would say they would be among the most pampered animals on the planet.’

    Except for all the ones that get turned into pet food because they are too slow.

  34. In my blue ribbon “Liberal” seat I would consider voting strategically against the “Liberals” because Labor has no realistic chance of winning. Normally no one else has either, so it’s 1 Labor 2 Green 99 Liberal. But I would vote 1 for a centrist independent or a Green if I considered that they had a realistic chance of winning, with Labor next and Liberal last, behind their fellow travellers like One Nation and religious crackpots. That way I cannot possibly help the Liberal.

    In the Senate of course it’s 1 Labor 2 Green last Coalition.

  35. “I hope for your sake that you are never convicted of any crime on the basis of that level of evidence. It doesn’t even reach the level of balance of probability, let alone beyond reasonable doubt.”

    It is clearly way beyond the balance of probability and the little bit you don’t understand is ‘convicted of a crime’, our system is based on letting 10 guilty white guys go free rather than jailing one innocent one. The rules of evidence are extraordinarily tight and the standard through the roof.

    And except for the terrible biases we see in criminal justice systems where not everyone gets that benefit of the doubt it is a good system.

    But there is a much lower civil legal standard, and then you have standards that apply to drawing normal conclusions as humans. By that standard both first two victims are clearly telling the truth and he did it. And yes to reach that conclusion I use evidence that would be inadmissible, but we have it, it would be stupid not to do it.

    And the ‘should he get a life time appointment on the Supreme court as one of the best lawyers, best judges and best people in America, well clearly 100% no, there has to be real doubt about whether he should be on the lower court.

  37. Even just sticking with evidence 101, she was a credible witness he was a repeat liar, he was evasive. One only needs to believe her and observe he was of no credibility (more than his fan club here but he is a nicer guy than them) and you have the obvious conclusion – he did it.

    Then you add in, his best mate could have cleared him, but didn’t. Extraordinarily odd that, well unless he did it.

    Then you have the second woman, in a room with 10 or more others with him in the room, 6 or more of whom were actually contacted REFUSED TO DENY it happened. The rest avoided being contacted. You only needed one to say ‘nah it was Eric’ and no one did. Extraordinarily odd that, unless he did it.

    Now in a criminal trial if he doesn’t already get off on some technicality, like he is rich and white, he may well be one of the 10 guilty ones that isn’t convicted, but still doesn’t make a ‘ohhh we have no idea’ conclusion anything other than stupid. As stupid as Susan Collins but without all the pressure and self interest that forced her to betray her country.

  38. Confessions @ #921 Saturday, October 6th, 2018 – 5:56 pm

    zoomster @ #915 Saturday, October 6th, 2018 – 3:38 pm

    For example..

    ‘In fact, when it comes to the ratio of women principals to men, Australia ranks dead last. The study showed that while 57% of upper-secondary teachers are women, only 39% of principals are female – the lowest proportion among all countries surveyed.’

    https://www.theeducatoronline.com/au/news/calling-all-female-principals-where-are-you/194888

    Mum (who was a teacher) used to say the workforce inherently advantages men, and the teaching profession is no different. Problem was, according to her, the great male teachers stayed teachers, but the shit male teachers used their advantage to get promoted to principal. Whereupon they invariably became shit principals.

    Obviously things in teaching haven’t changed all that much.

    That is very true – of both males and females.

  39. Slightly off topic, but having seen some of Banksy’s provocative work on the wall in the West Bank, this latest effort by him is pure art…

    “Banksy’s iconic painting ‘Girl with Balloon’ was auctioned for just over £1 million (just over €1.1 million) at Sotheby’s in London on Friday but immediately after the hammer fell, part of the painting shredded itself to ribbons.

    The Financial Times reported that a contraption to destroy the work (which was voted the UK’s favourite painting in a Samsung poll of 2017) was hidden in the frame. “It was shredded by a mechanism apparently hidden within the base of the frame, with most of the work emerging from the bottom in strips”.

    https://www.euronews.com/2018/10/06/banksy-painting-self-destructs-in-artist-s-prank-at-auction?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1538818579

  40. I share Sceptic’s view of the Everest and its alleged benefits. Do we have any evidence that there are more tourists in Sydney now than any average October week? Unless the answer is yes, it is a zero sum game. All the gambling industry does is redistribute money, usually from problem gamblers, to wealthier bookies, bet agencies and horse trainers.

    As for the poor horses, for every one Winx, there are a thousand others put down for being too slow, too old, or lame after one race. Jumps racing is worse. Dog racing is even crueller still. Racing is the sport of Cons.

  41. Max Brenner

    How can a Company fall 6 months into arrears with the remitting of employees superannuation entitlements?

    Was the figure of superannuation entitlements not remitted $4 Billion a year?

    And there is no action by this dysfunctional government

    This is theft and should result in charges and jail sentences

    Full stop

    And don’t get me started on false allegations – which are made with impunity and where, again, charges should be laid

  42. zoomster @ #933 Saturday, October 6th, 2018 – 6:11 pm

    Well, I’ve knocked around a lot of schools, and know a lot of teachers. I’ve never heard of a student of either sex making sexual allegations against a teacher. I do know of a couple of cases where male teachers lost their jobs because of sexual allegations, but in both cases these were from outside the school – in one case, the man got his job back when the allegations were overturned.

    I’m not saying it doesn’t happen, but it must be in very very small numbers.

    On the other hand, as a female teacher, I nearly lost my job once due to a false accusation of assault.

    My experience as a teacher for 23 years as well. Not a single accusation, false or otherwise, though I know a couple of male teachers who put themselves, in let’s say, a vulnerable situation.

  43. how much weight would Hewson’s advice

    People who consistently vote Liberal love authority. They have low levels of openness to new experiences and ideas, low levels of tolerance for complexity and ambiguity, high levels of conscientiousness.

    It is a big deal to them for a respected former defender of their preferred political faith to say that it’s ok to take a walk on the wild side and vote for a Liberal-leaning independent who embraces empirically and theoretically unsound macroeconomic theory. Many of these folks have never thought critically about anything since a brief period of teenage rebellion against their parents. Hewson is an authority figure who will make them feel safe enough to vote for someone another than the duly beatified Liberal candidate.

  46. David Jolly, former Republican representative for Florida is another who has renounced his Republican membership. For both him and his wife, and did it because (according to him) they didn’t want to set a bad example for their newborn daughter.

  47. Boerwar,
    My understanding is that racehorses are not allowed to be put into pet food. Blood and bone for the garden maybe.

    Most horses used by humans; racing, eventing, pony club, dressage, recreational riding, all end up being euthanised except for a very small percentage who are cared into very old age. (As my sister did with her eventing horse). Seeing retired racehorses being left in paddocks not getting the intensive care they need to keep them in good health is tragic. People get them cheap or free and like the idea of having a beautiful horse but eventually stop spending money on vets, good feed, farriers etc. If they are lucky someone decides enough is enough and gets the vet in for the green dream needle. I am totally opposed to equines being sent to a slaughterhouse after their working life is over. Either they are retired to good care or should be humanely euthanised.

    The racing industry is now bringing in rules about ex-racehorses (no sending them to the knackery and retraining them for other recreational riding.)

    The problem for racehorses and greyhounds being overbred and needing funding in retirement is easily solved if a small percentage of racing gambling money is collected to pay for it. There is a way, and the money is there, it just needs the will. And the pressure on the racing authorities.

    As for the Everest, it is all marketing. It will not bring tourists to Sydney. It is interesting for people interested in racing. Outside of that it will be just ‘meh’.

    Using the Opera House that way is tacky and unforgivable.

    Greyhound racing and jumps racing are on borrowed time, as they have lost their social licence by not keeping up to date with modern animal welfare expectations.

  50. “ScumMo rediscovers his boyhood love of the … West Coast Eagles? He is just a nice bloke. And he is not Mr Harbourside Mansion. So you can trust him completely.”

    Neat summary – I’m sure it’s accurate. Saves us from having to read the article.

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