We’re in an off-week for federal opinion polling, although we may get geographic and demographic breakdowns from Newspoll – the leadership change had broken up their usual schedule of quarterly publication, and they have already published the results from the end of the Turnbull epoch. So here’s a summary of preselection news. Note the post below on the Wentworth by-election, and the one below that on the US mid-terms, courtesy of Adrian Beaumont.
• After successful lobbying from Scott Morrison, Peter Dutton and Mathias Cormann, Richard Colbeck will head the Tasmanian Liberal Senate ticket. Earlier reports indicated he would again be dumped, as he was in 2016 – initially costing him his seat, before he won it back on the countback that resulted from Stephen Parry’s Section 44-related disqualification. Claire Chandler, a conservative backed by Eric Abetz, is number two, with Hobart councillor Tanya Denison number three. The presence of two women on the ticket makes a change from the usual form of the state party, which last had a woman in federal parliament in 2002. Those who missed out included Brett Whiteley, who held Braddon from 2013 to 2016 and failed to win it back in the Super Saturday by-election, and Wendy Summers, political staffer and the sister of David Bushby.
• Tasmanian Labor, on the other hand, has persisted in dumping Senator Lisa Singh to number four, despite her historic success in having below-the-line voters overturn her demotion in 2016. This reflects the party’s persistence in favouring the claim of John Short, state secretary of the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union, who will be number three. The top two positions go to incumbents of the Left and Right, Carol Brown and Catryna Bilyk.
• Ann Sudmalis’s retirement in the dicey New South Wales seat of Gilmore leaves in the field her prospective preselection challenger, Grant Schultz, a real estate agent and the son of former Hume MP Alby Schultz. However, Mark Kenny of Fairfax reports “the moderate faction of the Liberal Party believes it can retain its hold on the seat and find a replacement for Ms Sudmalis”.
• Chris O’Keefe of Nine News reports Hughes MP Craig Kelly has been approached to run in the marginal state seat of East Hills, to smooth over his likely preselection defeat in his existing seat at the hands of Kent Johns. Kelly appeared to scupper his chances when he suggested forgiving Russia for the MH17 disaster was “the price we have to pay” for “good relations going forward”.
• Perin Davey, a Riverina water policy specialist, has won preselection to succeed the retiring John “Wacka” Williams as the Nationals’ New South Wales Senate candidate. The existing coalition agreement gives the Nationals the difficult third position on the ticket, but Joe Kelly of The Australian reports the party is considering breaking away to run its own ticket. To this end it has chosen a full slate of four candidates, rounded out by “small business owner Sam Farraway, Gunnedah Mayor Jamie Chaffey and Wagga-based farmer Paul Cocking”.
• Skye Kakoschke-Moore has been confirmed as the lead South Australian Senate candidate for the Centre Alliance, confirming that Nick Xenophon will stand by the pledge he made at the time of his failed run for state parliament that he would not run at the federal election.
Someone put it well – Gillard has emotional maturity; when rolled she was adult enough to understand that was the system, she had done her best, it was not ‘personal’, and it did not end her ability to forge a useful and meaning career or life. She did not have to spend every day ‘defending her legacy’.
Contrast that to Abbott and Rudd, whose identity was wrapped up in being leader, who felt ashamed/emasculated/ humiliated/ entitled, who responded with revenge and anger and will go on to do not much constructive with their lives (especially serial wrecker Abbott).
An old joke (in the days of Telegrams) was the message to boss or other DH
Get stuffed – Rude Letter Following.
Craig Kelly – the Poster Child for bug-eyed (and I mean bug-eyed) crazy.
‘Lynchpin says:
Thursday, October 4, 2018 at 7:55 am
BW, they all cut through at the start.’
I did not like hearing it but I listened to it respectfully. I am a mere conduit of what I saw and heard.
‘antonbruckner11 says:
Thursday, October 4, 2018 at 8:24 am
Craig Kelly – the Poster Child for bug-eyed (and I mean bug-eyed) crazy.’
Yeah? Show me the evidence that space climate has not changed.
Sohar says:
Wednesday, October 3, 2018 at 11:23 pm
Sohar, former PM Julia Gillard has made it clear that she retains a deep commitment to the pursuit of progress in mental health, education and equal opportunities for women in politics, since her departure from the office of PM. She has made this clear through her deeds most of all, but also through her words on these issues – and on her restraint on public comment on other issues.
Why can’t this be a sound model for post-Prime Ministerial public activity?
“..and securing the Jewish vote as their man from Israel, Israel in his veins,..”
The irony being that Sharma is not even Jewish, but rather has an Indian background.
”
Torchbearer says:
Thursday, October 4, 2018 at 8:16 am
Someone put it well – Gillard has emotional maturity; when rolled she was adult enough to understand that was the system, she had done her best, it was not ‘personal’, and it did not end her ability to forge a useful and meaning career or life. She did not have to spend every day ‘defending her legacy’.
Contrast that to Abbott and Rudd, whose identity was wrapped up in being leader, who felt ashamed/emasculated/ humiliated/ entitled, who responded with revenge and anger and will go on to do not much constructive with their lives (especially serial wrecker Abbott).
”
As Paul Sheehan once wrote in SMH when he was their columnist, history will judge Gillard kindly than Rudd.
:Victoria says:
Thursday, October 4, 2018 at 8:16 am
citizen
for real?”
That’s the image of today’s DT front page – it will open by clicking on the small box with a question mark inside.
On the question of posting images, sometimes for me they appear on PB but mostly they appear as a small box with question mark, which then links to the image. Does any tech savvy person here know why? Thanks.
I suggest that one reason that Gillard moved on was that she was future-orientated?
In particular she left government with an international reputation as a torchbearer for feminism.
She was an is -be, not a has-been.
She has a Cause.
She personifies the Cause.
The world is her oyster.
Julia Gillard is definitely displaying the most maturity of any former living PM IMHO. Shes keeping quiet about politics and appears for the most part to be dedicating her efforts to charitable organisations.
Observer @ #1447 Thursday, October 4th, 2018 – 6:13 am
Confessions lives in WA, not Victoria.
‘Sohar says:
Thursday, October 4, 2018 at 8:28 am
“..and securing the Jewish vote as their man from Israel, Israel in his veins,..”
The irony being that Sharma is not even Jewish, but rather has an Indian background.’
Jewish opinion in Israel is divided, as it is in Wentworth. Sharma was supportive of the right-wing Netanyahu side of opinion which is the majority opinion, by vote, of Israeli Jews.
I have no idea how the Jewish vote in Wentworth will split, but split it will. I assume that since the Left has a somewhat disconcerting tendency to be loose in terms of failing to be clear in not conflating anti-Israeli views with anti-semitic views, the majority of the Wentworth Jewish vote will got direct to Sharma.
Morning, Bludgers. Congrats on your 49 yrs of marital bliss, BK. May you and Mrs BK enjoy many more.
Torchbearer – your post is spot on re Julia Gillard. I heard her being interviewed by Fran Kelly this morning. What a constructive, meaningful life she is building for herself and us. There is no rancour aired publicly. She’s a delight.
Meanwhile our motormouth of a PM seems more Trumpish each day.
dave @ 7.55
Interesting considerations, IMO.
The RBA Governor, speaking to the Cash Rate remaining at 1.5%, referred to continuing flat wages growth and cooling house prices
Simply, and as I have presented previously,what we see is that after a period where the economy was driven by private debt from 2000 (and asset sales plus the Mining Boom phase 1 from 2004), with what we owed to our home mortgage lenders increasing from $335 Billion in January 2000 to $1.226 Trillion in January 2010 (noting the GFC and banks severely curtailing lending), the pay down of that debt by households first impacts on discretionary spending then media (9 and 10 going broke) then cooling house prices
That is the economic cycle
The commentary of the RBA Governor should be noted – not the shrill commentary of house prices collapsing by the usual suspects in media which is the uneducated telling their fellow uneducated what they do not know
A description that suits our current disgrace of a pm to a tee!
I was captivated by this article by Gabrielle Chan, describing the plights of various drought-affected farmers in Qld:
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/04/this-drought-is-different-its-drier-and-hotter-and-getting-worse
It was an eye-opener to me, as a lifelong city-slicker, to see the complexity of the challenges faced by these farmers, and the thoughtfulness of their responses to it.
But it was this section, focused not on a farmer, but a farm employee and his family, that stopped me short:
“
Farmers are not the only ones to suffer in drought. Dave* lost his job on a big cotton farm in a small northern NSW town when the drought started to bite. There was not enough water and the farmer cut back his cropping program. Like many farm workers, a cottage was part of his package. So when he lost his job, Dave and wife Margie* also lost their house.
There was no redundancy package because the employer was not large enough. Dave was reeling from the job loss but Margie got active. The couple, in their late 50s, were carrying a bit of debt from the last drought when they were left unpaid for contracting work. So while looking for a new home, Margie also contacted their bank to apply for hardship provisions which the bank duly provided. But when a good friend gave them some money to tide them over, the bank dropped the hardship provision.
Margie applied to Centrelink for Newstart, but given the couple have had various micro businesses, the application process was arduous to prove they had no hidden assets. She also contacted high profile drought charities who told her because they were not farmers, they could not help. Sixteen weeks after losing their job and home, they were still waiting for Newstart.
The only assistance they have received is from the Country Womens Association, which pays up to $3000 for household expenses such as fuel, power, insurance and the like. Another city based charity arrived with groceries, lining up donated goods like a supermarket at a local hall.
“The government needs to look after people who become unemployed with the drought,” Margie said. “There is no focus on contractors, the small businesses, it’s hard to get Centrelink assistance and those people end up leaving town.””
Sohar @ #1458 Thursday, October 4th, 2018 – 8:28 am
True. Indian father, mother (the source of Jewish blood) Australian. The general assumption around is that ‘he must be’, and none of those I’ve asked, who should know, knew, and moreover if he were, it would have been highlighted in the Jerusalem Post (2013) article on his appointment and arrival, and the best they could come up with was:
https://www.jpost.com/Diplomacy-and-Politics/Fresh-from-the-land-down-under-new-Aussie-ambassador-is-youngest-yet-321245
But people come onto sites such as this giving opinion and their commentary of whatever
Why should former pm’s be precluded?
Simply, they should not be
Gillard’s devotion to education as the means to escape disadvantage is in itself enough said. Easy to say, harder to do, and she does.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/04/wayne-swan-urges-labor-to-muscle-up-against-rightwing-thinktanks
Michael
It is not only the farm employees.
Small town business drop like flies during droughts.
It is cumulative. Families shift out. Schools close down. Teachers, often farmers’ wives, lose their jobs. The school cleaners lose their little survival contracts. The hardware shops that supplied the cleaning products go down the tubes… on and on and on.
There is a totally indiscriminate reporting of what is going on.
Some of the King Cotton farmers, some of whom gross in the tens of millions per annum, are probably hoovering up the drought aid interest free loans, the transport subsidies, the three year tax smoothing structure, the accelerated depreciation provisions, the diesel rebate, and all the rest of it.
Some of them have been looting the water, screwing the environment, and screwing the taxpayer so why would they not be screwing their workers? When the workers are used up, out they go.
The Federal LNP is on track to impale itself on the picket fence of history. It’s now just happening in Slomo, but it will happen, not quickly enough, as the LNP brand is confronted daily, by its woeful navigation of disaster after disaster.
Envoy after envoy will be dispatched to all corners of “poor fellow my country”. I hope the envoys have ensured they’ve secured a return ticket to and from wherever. Does Malcolm’s position as the New York envoy have an end date? Will Julie accept a position as travelling envoy? Is Robb still an envoy for the our northern neighbour ? Is the GG still the Queen’s envoy?
Perhaps the commuters squashed onto trains and buses this morning will console themselves with the fact that they are indeed envoys, with mortgages still to be paid, to keep their houses with falling values, so as to maintain the envoys at the banks, they themselves, envoys of the wealthy, so keen to maintain their rightful place as entitled envoys of unfairness and inequality.
Morrison leads an LNP government, woefully inept, creating a new industry of envoys, assuring the unentitled of their good fortune, whilst doing everything the LNP can to keep the Slomo disaster on track.
I’m so glad the tampon thing is sorted. We can ‘havago’ at deforestation or water or refugees or climate change or poverty or renewables……….
Shouldn’t be too hard for Slomo and his team!
Is this right? I didnt think it mattered if the employer is a very small business.
The plight of farm workers and farming communities has been a problem for many decades, and if they keep voting for Barnaby Weatherboard’n’iron types it will be a problem for many decades to come. But it doesnt matter that the communities the National represent are the poorest in the nation, it doesnt matter that their MPs fail to act in their best interest, they will keep voting for their tribe.
Good Morning
BK
My congratulations on your Wedding Anniversary. 🙂
_________________________
I woke to Bil Shorten on my radio with the child care education announcement for preschoolers.
Great move.
@AndrewBGreen tweets
#breaking Britain has accused Russian military intelligence of directing a host of cyber attacks aimed at undermining Western democracies – Australian government to publicly back the assessment
This sums up much of what Canavan has to say.
He’s in the same league of Kelly and Molan.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-04/fact-check-queensland-abortion-laws-unrestricted-access/10264402
One has to wonder whether the Libs are trying their “we’re winning so its all over” tactic in Wentworth like they tried in Longman ….
citizen (Block)
Thursday, October 4th, 2018 – 8:16 am
Comment #1449
After your post regarding The Daily Telegraph front page I posted the image shown at
Does this image appear for you ❓
I have found that attempting to copy and paste from various sources will not work using either Firefox or Chrome .
However using Internet explorer I can readily right click on an image and copy and then go to -say Firefox and paste into the comment box.
I don’t know if this information is any help to you.
I use (mostly) a desktop Windows 10 machine and Firefox to post comments to Poll Bludger.
I use Internet Explorer pinned to the taskbar for various bits and bobs including – english to french, swahili, portugese translations – spelling, copy images etc.
I am not an expert, just persistent.
Good luck with this. 😇
Let’s not forget there was a “small” earthquake before the tsunami.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-04/fact-check-queensland-abortion-laws-unrestricted-access/10264402
Great campaign to minimise harm from illicit drug use:
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/richard-branson-decriminalise-drugs-nsw-uniting-20181002-p507ad.html
D&M
A few other churches could learn a thing or two from the Uniting Church.
Am noting that on ABC tv this morn there was a positive Shorten report on childcare and a negative govt report on the report on emissions.
Was the comment by Scomo (Scummo?) on insiders where he said wtte ‘they’d hear more from him if they didn’t do better’ the straw that broke a proverbial camel’s back?
Jen
Good to see the ABC highlighting the two month delay in holding back the report emissions have risen to drop it on the Friday of the Footy finals season.
The middle managers Nick Ross talked about have been shaken from their complacency of trying to avoid trouble by the current debate on Independence. I hope it lasts.
Barney in Go Dau @ #1468 Thursday, October 4th, 2018 – 9:10 am
I think these members of the FW league are speaking to the quite large audience of Dumb, Dumber and Dumbest.
If this is not so and these gentlemen believe what they espouse then possibly they further believe that saying something (anything) makes it true. The climate changes in space referenced elsewhere may refer to the space between the ears. 😲
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/malcolm-turnbull-given-a-formal-overseas-travel-entitlement-not-granted-to-other-ex-pms-20181002-p507c7.html
It’s a sad situation when you’re an impoverished ex PM depending on taxpayer largess for your os travel.
@joshbutler tweets
Scott Morrison and Marise Payne statement on Russia – “pattern of malicious cyber activity” attributed to Russian military.
Australia “was not significantly impacted” but caused “millions of dollars in economic damage” https://twitter.com/JoshButler/status/1047629050611548160/photo/1
The climate in space. The climate in space.
You couldn’t make this shit up, and people would laugh at you (deservedly) if you did.
The climate in space. The climate in space.
Speaking in tongues would make more sense.
“Am noting that on ABC tv this morn there was a positive Shorten report on childcare and a negative govt report on the report on emissions”
My guess is that once the election campaign is underway and Labor looks like winning, then the ABC will finally have the nerve to report politics fairly (provided non-rightwing journalist can still be found at the ABC).
Back to Scare mongering routine lol.
Jen
An interesting contrast to the commentary on this interview
Shorten struggles to answer this basic question, because there is no justification for Labor and the Coalition’s joint policy of deliberate mistreatment of children on Nauru. https://twitter.com/breakfastnews/status/1047607316621582336
@Sir ThomasWynne tweets
#auspol
I watched the Virginia Trioli interview, she got nasty, why the aggression towards Bill Shorten?
Why conflate preschool announcements with kids on Nauru?
Labor is not the govt!
Oh and praising the Scomo govt as united made us all laugh! https://twitter.com/SirThomasWynne/status/1047604152744853504/photo/1
I think it’s pretty clear why Gillard has chosen to distance herself from the Labor Party.
1) Given his betrayal of her, she can hardly be expected to be enthused about Shorten as leader.
2) She is intelligent enough to know that she is a divisive figure in the community, and that her attempting to intervene in the political debate would damage the Labor Party.
3) As far as I can work out, she isn’t suffering from relevance deprivation: she is chasing her own non-political goals and is happy to appear in the media to promote them, but not for any other particular reason. She feels she has had her say about her political career in her book (which thankfully she kept to only one volume) and that’s that.
I won’t comment on Rudd’s post-political behaviour as I don’t want to start another R-G-R war.
I reckon Abbott has always been predominantly motivated by ideology: he wants to take the party further to the right, and wants those Liberals who he sees as ideologically more aligned with Labor to get out of the party, particularly in NSW. I don’t think he takes anything particularly personally.
The Age
Verified account @theage
2h2 hours ago
‘Against science’: Scott Morrison’s climate change stance slammed
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/architect-of-paris-climate-accord-says-morrison-government-s-emissions-stance-is-anti-science-20181002-p507bb.html?platform=hootsuite
baba
I don’t agree with you on a lot of things. However on this I do need to speak up. You should give your opinion and not shut up because it might start an RGR war. Its not your problem if it does which is must less likely nowadays without Bemused to respond.
guytaur
Oh goody, another front opened up in the Coalition’s ‘Be Afraid’-‘We’ll keep you safe’ campaign.
Is the next Newspoll due this Sunday? If anyone wants to predict the next one I’ll be checking in here and compiling any guesses, starting today and with increasing frequency Saturday/Sunday. I’ll publish the complete list once Newspoll releases its numbers.
As a reminder, this was the last PB effort.
Newspoll-Poll 2018-09-23
Actual: ALP 54 to 46 LNP
PB Mean: ALP 54.4 to 45.6 LNP
PB Median: ALP 54 to 46 LNP
No. of PB Respondents: 59
ALP / LNP
53 / 47 A different Michael
54.5 / 45.5 a r
53 / 47 Akubra
54 / 46 Al Pal
54 / 46 Andrew_Earlwood
56 / 44 Asha Leu
53 / 47 Aunt Mavis
51 / 49 ausdavo
54 / 46 BK
47 / 53 Boerwar
56 / 44 briefly
54 / 46 C@tmomma
54 / 46 Confessions
54 / 46 Cud Chewer
54 / 46 d-money
99 / 1 Dan Gulberry
55 / 45 Don
53 / 47 Evan
53 / 47 Frednk
56 / 44 Fulvio Sammut
61 / 39 Gecko
55 / 45 Golly
53 / 47 Harry “Snapper” Organs
52 / 48 Holden Hillbilly
53 / 47 imacca
54 / 46 j341983
54 / 46 jeffemu
53 / 47 jenauthor
52 / 48 jph
52 / 48 Kevjohnno
54 / 46 Late Riser
51 / 49 Lynchpin
54 / 46 Mari
52 / 48 Matt
55 / 45 Matt31
53 / 47 meher baba
55 / 45 Michael 2
52 / 48 Mundo
56 / 44 nath
53 / 47 poroti
57 / 43 Puffytmd
55 / 45 Question
54 / 46 Robert Ball
51 / 49 Sceptic
52 / 48 Simon² Katich®
50 / 50 Sprocket_
54 / 46 Socrates
55 / 45 Sohar
53 / 47 sonar
55 / 45 steve davis
53 / 47 Steve777
52 / 48 Taylormade
53 / 47 The Silver Bodgie
53 / 47 Tricot
54 / 46 Upnorth
58 / 42 Warrigal
53 / 47 Whisper
53 / 47 Work To Rule
52 / 48 Zoidlord
poroti
Not good news for the government. Helps to make the case that Brexit and Trump should not have happened to politics. 🙂
Sohar @ #1490 Thursday, October 4th, 2018 – 9:28 am
That’s a pretty massive proviso.
Nick Ross
Verified account @NickRossTech
44s44 seconds ago
Now I think of it it’s fair to say that @ABCmediawatch corrupt, lying hatchet job hackery directly led to the closure of ABC’s Sci/Tech/Environment sites and the death of Catalyst. I wonder if all involved are proud of that? Literally some form of journalistic cancer #auspol #abc