Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor

The latest monthly Ipsos poll suggests a steadying for the Coalition after recent abysmal results, although it does so from an unusual set of primary vote numbers.

The latest Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers is the Coalition’s least bad result of the Scott Morrison prime ministership so far, recording the Labor two-party lead at 53-47, an improvement on the 55-45 blowout the pollster recorded as Malcolm Turnbull’s prime ministership entered its final week (which was the one poll suggesting a significant weakening in Coalition voting intention in the period up to the spill). Ipsos’ primary vote numbers are still idiosyncratic, with an already over-inflated Greens gaining two points to 15%, while Labor slumps four to 31% and the Coalition gains one to 34%. No conventional leadership ratings that I can see yet, but ratings of the two leaders across a range of eleven attributes finds Morrison scoring better than Bill Shorten on every question other than “has the confidence of his/her party” and “has a firm grasp of social policy”. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1200; more detail presumably to follow.

UPDATE: As related by the Financial Review, the poll has Scott Morrison debuting with 46% approval and 36% disapproval, while Bill Shorten is up three on approval to 44% and down four on disapproval to 48%. Morrison holds a 47-37 lead as preferred prime minister, little different from Turnbull’s 48-36 lead in the last poll.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,765 comments on “Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Internet researchers claim Kavanaugh buddy Mark Judge has troubling history of posting photos of young girls

    Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh has been accused of sexual assault while his buddy Mark Judge watched nearby. Judge has since said he doesn’t recall the incident in an interview with the Washington Post. However, Heavy along with internet researchers uncovered Judge has a troubling history of posting photos of young girls.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/09/internet-researchers-uncover-kavanaugh-buddy-mark-judge-troubling-history-posting-photos-young-girls/

    Mark Judge, Brett Kavanaugh’s Classmate: 5 Fast Facts You Need to Know

    https://heavy.com/news/2018/09/mark-judge-brett-kavanaugh-classmate/

  4. Noted that the Kavanaugh story is on the Washington Post. It seems that if a chap has failed to become aware of this fact, then ipso facto he is clearly inhabiting a different planet. Makes sense.

    In any case that’s huge but is it enough to derail the Senate confirmation? They need K in place in the likely event the court is ruling on Trump-related crimes and misdemeanors.

  5. “What is the point of Direct Action? “

    Not to reduce emissions. The idea was always to pretend to do something so that voters concerned about the climate could vote Coalition with a clear conscience. It also doesn’t cost polluters a cent. As an additional advantage, it provided a slush fund for mates and possibly marginal electorates.

  6. Conversation
    Sean Sullivan
    Sean Sullivan
    @WaPoSean
    NEWS: Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) tells me in an intv he that doesn’t think the Judiciary Cmte should move ahead with its Thursday vote on Kavanaugh until they hear more from Christine Blasey Ford. “For me, we can’t vote until we hear more.”
    8:10 AM · Sep 17, 2018

  8. alias:

    There have been rumours for days now about alleged sexual misconduct in Kavanaugh’s past. According to the article, the woman figured if the story was going to come out she wanted to be the one to tell it. The incident was first mentioned by her in couples therapy with her husband in 2012. The Washington Post has obtained the therapist’s notes to review as part of piecing the article together and apart from one difference as to the number of men involved, the story she told today aligns with what she told her therapist 6 years ago.

    Given Republicans have no problem with Trump and his sexist behaviour I am sure they will simply dismiss this allegation. Likely what will happen is that Republicans who are retiring will speak out, but I reckon his confirmation will proceed.

  9. Jon Cooper ‏Verified account @joncoopertweets

    Christine Blasey Ford offered a detailed account of her sexual assault by #BrettKavanaugh & passed a polygraph test given by a former FBI agent. At the very least, a confirmation vote MUST be delayed until Kavanaugh takes — and passes — his own lie detector test!

  11. NEWS: Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) tells me in an intv he that doesn’t think the Judiciary Cmte should move ahead with its Thursday vote on Kavanaugh until they hear more from Christine Blasey Ford. “For me, we can’t vote until we hear more.”

    Ha! Flake is retiring.

  12. alias:

    This was in the NY Times 3 days ago.

    A secretive letter shared with senators and federal investigators by the senior Democrat on the Senate Judiciary Committee charges that a teenage Brett M. Kavanaugh and a male friend trapped a teenage girl in a bedroom during a party and tried to assault her, according to three people familiar with the contents of the letter.

    The letter says that Mr. Kavanaugh, then a student at Georgetown Preparatory School in suburban Washington and now President Trump’s Supreme Court nominee, had been drinking at a social gathering when he and the male friend took the teenage girl into a bedroom. The door was locked, and she was thrown onto the bed. Mr. Kavanaugh then got on top of the teenager and put a hand over her mouth, as the music was turned up, according to the account.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/14/us/politics/kavanaugh-assault-allegation-letter.html

  13. Kavanaugh’s proposed questions for Bill Clinton re Monica Lewinsky when he was on Kenneth Starr’s Whitewater team did seem to suggest a chap with certain issues.

  14. It appears that the media focus entirely on what the government should do to survive and where the dangers to the return of the government lay – never on Labor and what Labor policy is unless that policy removes rorts available to those who so arrange their tax affairs and when that Labor policy is attacked

    Interesting that the Victorian Poll was conducted by the Bus lobby who are railing against the Andrews government over attempts to have them change their route demographic to more suit the needs of the population and integrate those services

  16. Out today, Laura Tingle’s Quarterly Essay – Follow the Leader: democracy and the rise of the strongman:

    What is true political leadership, and how do we get it? What qualities should we wish for in our leaders? And why is it killing season for prime ministers?

    In this wise and timely essay, Laura Tingle argues that democratic leaders build a consensus for change, rather than bludgeon the system or turn politics into a popularity contest. They mobilise and guide, more than impose a vision. Tingle offers acute portraits – profiles in courage and cunning – of leaders ranging from Merkel and Howard to Macron and Obama. She discusses the rise of the strongman, including Donald Trump, for whom there is no map, only sentiment and power. And she analyses what has gone wrong with politics in Australia, arguing that successful leaders know what they want to do, and create the space and time to do it. After the Liberal Party’s recent episode of political madness, where does this leave the nation’s new prime minister, Scott Morrison?

    “The Liberal Party has been ripped apart and our polity is the worse off for having one of its major political parties rendered largely ungovernable … Malcolm Turnbull’s fate came down to a series of judgements made not just by him, but by his colleagues, who spent much of his prime ministership failing to follow the leader and also failing in their own collective responsibility for leadership.”

    Tingle was interviewed this morning on ABC RN Drive about her latest essay.

  17. Clem Attlee:

    [‘When an ‘independent’ candidate opens with the line “I’m in the sensible centre, ” you just know they are a rabid Tory.’]

    Phelps has urged her supporters to put the Tories last – hardly the action of a rabid Tory.

    Puffytmd:

    [‘I think he means Asparagus Anonymous.’]

    You’re hilarious.

  18. Article on Tingle’s essay and strongman politics:

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-09-17/people-grumble-about-leaders-but-deeper-malaise-is-afoot/10236662

    Mr Turnbull’s inability to wrangle these internal political forces — or perhaps his refusal to ostentatiously stare them down — left voters frustrated and ate away at his authority.

    The leadership challenge from Peter Dutton only highlighted all these trends: the self-indulgence; the lack of any commitment to collective responsibility; the complexity of policy issues; polarised and divided electorates; the slow undermining of prime ministerial authority.

    And, ominously, it pointed to the prospect of another tilt to the right, to populism and to strongman politics.

    Finding a way to deal with these trends, something that eluded Mr Turnbull, was the real task facing Scott Morrison when he became prime minister last month.

  19. The gist of Torygirl Tingles’s article seems to be that it was not Malcolm’s fault, but rather those around him. Sorry, Laura, you have to start again. Fail!

  20. Harvard law professor Laurence TribeVerified account

    This accusation of sexual assault is no longer either anonymous or uncorroborated and cannot responsibly be ignored just because of its unfortunate timing, given how much is at stake.

    .@LindseyGrahamSC says he’s willing to listen to Prof. Ford. She needs a chance to testify publicly and under oath. And Judge Kavanaugh needs an opportunity to respond, much as he would prefer that this allegation be tossed out as tardy. The country is ill-served by haste here.

  21. I saw excerpt only of 60 mins last night re mortgage pressures and what the banks are now doing.
    I can say from feedback of those in my circle regarding refinancing loans etc
    With rising interest rates some with investments have attempted to refinance to no avail. Something that would have been a no brainer with the banks until only recently.
    Mortgage pressures are also affecting investors now.
    Something the fibs would not be happy to see with looming elections

  22. This hits a nerve with me, since deer are now ruining my garden for the first time.

    A common misperception is that most of Australia’s introduced species came, like rabbits and foxes, from England, Dr Minard says.

    In fact, they came from all around the world. Animals were sourced from as far afield as India, Egypt, China, Algeria, France and Mauritius, according to his research.

    Today, this has left us with a rather bizarre mix of animals: deer imported from as far away as India and the Philippines now rub shoulders as they trample the native bush on the Mornington Peninsula, while hedge sparrows from China share the skies with mynas from India.

    About the same time, Baron Ferdinand von Mueller was filling his pockets with blackberry seeds.

    Von Mueller was Victoria’s first government botanist, arguably Australia’s most-prominent 19th century scientist, and a leader in planning Burke and Wills’ ill-fated exploration.

    On hearing of the expedition’s tragic end, with both leaders starving to death, the baron decided something needed to be done so that people wandering the countryside would never run out of food.

    Hence the blackberries, which Von Mueller planted across the state, says Dr Minard.

    “He thought explorers could survive better and not die in the wilderness if there were more things to eat in the wilderness.”

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/australia-s-ark-how-a-few-ships-and-decade-of-madness-cost-billions-20180915-p503yq.html

  23. The Vic state Andrews govt deserves to be re-elected

    I saw first hand yesterday the finished rail project in the South Morang Mernda area.
    Fantastic job!

  24. This morning The Guardian have a series of articles about government transparency. One of them is:

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/sep/17/making-australian-politics-transparent-and-how-you-can-help

    There’s a well-worn adage used by champions of government transparency. Sunlight, it is said, is always the best disinfectant.

    Transparency, openness, and an engaged citizenry rightly put fear into government. It deters malfeasance and encourages integrity.

    Your role in this equation has never been more important. Trust in government is falling, perceived corruption is worryingly high, and investigative journalism is being cut to the bone.

    That’s why Guardian Australia is launching the Transparency Project, a one-stop-shop for those who want to hold their politicians to account.

    Includes links to nine tools you can use to help The Guardian improve the accountability of your elected representatives.

  25. I don’t know about anyone else, but I am getting heartily sick of people being brought down (or at least the attempt being made to bring them down) by youthful sexual misadventures.

    We, all of us – men and, yes, women just as much as the men – have said, attempted and/or done things of a sexual nature that we regret. From adolescent clumsiness and thoughtlessness, through to outright arseholery, we are probably all guilty of something that another person might regard as far more serious today than we did at the time.

    If we are decent and adult about it we have since honestly reflected on our misspent youth, made our peace with our consciences, our God, the other person, or all three, have resolved to do better and gotten on with our lives.

    None of us are perfect, with some being further from perfect than others. But all are eligible for redemption and should be given the chance to be redeemed (and I don’t necessarily mean in a religious way, but that too, if it’s your thing).

    Some youthful sins, of course, may be so monstrous that they need to be accompanied by public punishment as well as moral contrition, for the sake of defining the boundaries of a civil society, if nothing else. I’m not saying there are no limits.

    I merely make a plea for the understanding of stupidity and youthful excess accompanied by an appreciation that most of us repent our earlier stupidities and have, in one way or another, suffered and atoned, or tried to atone for them.

  26. alias says:
    Monday, September 17, 2018 at 7:47 am: “Morrisson’s marketing brain”

    Hmmm, more product push of stuff people don’t want, let alone need, rather than sense and respond.
    I guess by now we all know how he got the blwxyz hell there, courtesy of a stalking horse from QLD, happy clapping Grinno then did a Brutus, again.
    And so the money/ pollyTICs/ media spin cycle that is Versailles on Lake Blwxyz Griffin, in the FIFO that is Canberra ACT, home to Washminster-style repressive democracy continues.
    It is way past time for more direct democracy and a refocus on advancing Australia, fair.
    A federal ICAC, campaign finance reform (either you get paid by taxpayers or lobbyists but not both), useful FOI, mandatory and binding referendums for anything over x dollars, y people, z levels of government not part of a published – in line with Tonicchio’s if it wasn’t written down … – election platform, including ADF misadventures more than 1000 kilometers from Australia’s economic zone or territorial waters!
    Till then a royal commission after a royal commission, even changing puppets in the show, if not the theatre.

  28. It has been reported Phelps Kerryn Phelps intends to finance her by-election campaign in the federal seat of Wentworth solely via crowdfunding and volunteers.

  30. It’s difficult to take this poll seriously, on the basis of a primary vote for Labor is recorded at 31, whereas Newspoll has it at 42, an 11 point drop.

  31. Barney

    Yes. I can understand the idealism of “Let’s create a paradise”, but it was built on total ignorance of the real Australia.

  32. Someone noted that Phelps is considered self-centred and pompous, and Clover Moore wanted nothing to do with her. Not a good endorsement. I certainly don’t trust Phelps. I think voters should be careful of her ‘put Libs last’. The fact that the Guardian and the SMH appear to be on the Phelps bandwagon is another concern – both were big Turnbull backers.
    Has anyone checked to see if Sharma has renounced his Israeli citizenship?

  34. “Labor is recorded at 31, whereas Newspoll has it at 42, an 11 point drop”
    I think Labor will get about 39-40 at the election and Greens 9-10, which will be enough.

  35. Bushfire Bill @ #224 Monday, September 17th, 2018 – 5:52 am

    I don’t know about anyone else, but I am getting heartily sick of people being brought down (or at least the attempt being made to bring them down) by youthful sexual misadventures.

    …

    You mean things that we accept as sexual assault, but at the time it was not easy for the woman to come forward and make a complaint.

    It was a crime then as it is a crime now, the only difference is that now, we as a Society are less inclined to negatively label the woman offended against, so they are able to come forward with some confidence.

  36. Manu RajuVerified account@mkraju
    30m30 minutes ago
    Susan Collins tells @gregclarycnn she‘s “very surprised”re Kavanaugh allegation and “it’s an issue that I brought up with him last Friday and he denied” it. Asked if committee should vote this week, she said: “I’m going to be talking with my colleagues,” declining further comment

  37. “Israeli citizenship? I thought he was born in Canada?”
    All Jews are eligible for Israeli citizenship, under the Law of Return. What’s the High Court ruling on this?

  38. Sohar

    Being eligible is different from being a citizen.

    Some countries grant citizenship automatically, by right of birth; others require some kind of acceptance on your behalf.

    To be an Israeli citizen, you have to apply.

    So he can be eligible without it being any kind of problem.

  40. I had not realised until now that the ABC had to appeal for crowd funding to investigate Aged Care, presumably because of funding cuts. Yet most of the facts were already known.

    Seems the Coalition needs to see pictures before they believe anything.

  41. “The Vic state Andrews govt deserves to be re-elected”

    Certainly the view from this distance. Moreover, the State Opposition looks vicious and malevolent in the Abbott mode (or maybe Campbell Newman).

  43. ABC News Breakfast seem to think that there is only one AFL preliminary final this weekend. I get that Richmond and Collingwood are big clubs, but I would have thought the West Coast/Melbourne match might be worth a mention.

  44. BiGD,
    I agree with you. You can’t just say, ‘youthful exuberance’ and wash your hands of what clearly, if the documented account of the incident, especially the effect it had and the therapy sought for it, is to be believed.

    Shouldn’t the perspective on the incident be from that of the woman and not that of the drunken men who thought she was fair game for their attack?

  45. Steve777 @ #240 Monday, September 17th, 2018 – 9:11 am

    “The Vic state Andrews govt deserves to be re-elected”

    Certainly the view from this distance. Moreover, the State Opposition looks vicious and malevolent in the Abbott mode (or maybe Campbell Newman).

    And the electorate only has to look over the border to SA to see what is in store for them if they elect a Coalition State government.

  46. This week, scientists, politicians, and policymakers are gathering in Brussels for a landmark conference. The aim of this event, organised by members of the European parliament from five different political groups, alongside trade unions and NGOs, is to explore possibilities for a “post-growth economy” in Europe.

    For the past seven decades, GDP growth has stood as the primary economic objective of European nations. But as our economies have grown, so has our negative impact on the environment. We are now exceeding the safe operating space for humanity on this planet, and there is no sign that economic activity is being decoupled from resource use or pollution at anything like the scale required. Today, solving social problems within European nations does not require more growth. It requires a fairer distribution of the income and wealth that we already have.

    Growth is also becoming harder to achieve due to declining productivity gains, market saturation, and ecological degradation. If current trends continue, there may be no growth at all in Europe within a decade. Right now the response is to try to fuel growth by issuing more debt, shredding environmental regulations, extending working hours, and cutting social protections. This aggressive pursuit of growth at all costs divides society, creates economic instability, and undermines democracy.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/16/the-eu-needs-a-stability-and-wellbeing-pact-not-more-growth

  47. lizzie @ #239 Monday, September 17th, 2018 – 6:10 am

    I had not realised until now that the ABC had to appeal for crowd funding to investigate Aged Care, presumably because of funding cuts. Yet most of the facts were already known.

    Seems the Coalition needs to see pictures before they believe anything.

    I doubt there is real ignorance of the issue in the Government, I think it’s something that can be ignored until we see or are about see the pictures.

    Public embarrassment seems to be an effective tool against this mob despite their lack of shame!!!

  48. C@tmomma says: Monday, September 17, 2018 at 9:14 am

    BiGD,
    I agree with you. You can’t just say, ‘youthful exuberance’ and wash your hands of what clearly, if the documented account of the incident, especially the effect it had and the therapy sought for it, is to be believed.

    *****************************************************************

    Rabbi Jill Zimmerman‏ @RabbiJill

    Let’s pause here & appreciate the courage it took for Christine Blasey Ford to reveal her story. & every other victim of sexual assault who carries that pain within for YEARS, affecting feelings of trust, safety in relationships. NO PERSON has a right to inflict that.

  49. ” and not that of the drunken men who thought she was fair game for their attack?”

    I dont think BB is referring to “drunken men”. I took his comment to be referring more to “drunken children”..

  50. Barney:

    However it is still hard for women to come forward even today.

    Yashar Ali Verified account@yashar
    3h3 hours ago
    About a year ago a woman came to me with a highly credible and deeply disturbing sexual assault accusation against a current senior government official. Over the past year, I have stayed in touch with her. She has been reluctant to come forward. Moments ago she sent me this text.

    :large

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