Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor

The latest monthly Ipsos poll suggests a steadying for the Coalition after recent abysmal results, although it does so from an unusual set of primary vote numbers.

The latest Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers is the Coalition’s least bad result of the Scott Morrison prime ministership so far, recording the Labor two-party lead at 53-47, an improvement on the 55-45 blowout the pollster recorded as Malcolm Turnbull’s prime ministership entered its final week (which was the one poll suggesting a significant weakening in Coalition voting intention in the period up to the spill). Ipsos’ primary vote numbers are still idiosyncratic, with an already over-inflated Greens gaining two points to 15%, while Labor slumps four to 31% and the Coalition gains one to 34%. No conventional leadership ratings that I can see yet, but ratings of the two leaders across a range of eleven attributes finds Morrison scoring better than Bill Shorten on every question other than “has the confidence of his/her party” and “has a firm grasp of social policy”. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1200; more detail presumably to follow.

UPDATE: As related by the Financial Review, the poll has Scott Morrison debuting with 46% approval and 36% disapproval, while Bill Shorten is up three on approval to 44% and down four on disapproval to 48%. Morrison holds a 47-37 lead as preferred prime minister, little different from Turnbull’s 48-36 lead in the last poll.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,765 comments on “Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor”

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  2. GhostWhoVotes
    GhostWhoVotes
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    #Ipsos
    Poll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 47 (+2) ALP 53 (-2)
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    Poll VIC Guy LIB: Approve 25 Disapprove 44
    #springst

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    Poll VIC Andrews ALP: Approve 40 Disapprove 42
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    #Galaxy
    Poll VIC State 2 Party Preferred: ALP 53 (+2) L/NP 47 (-2)
    #springst

    #auspol

  3. Darn @ #144 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 11:02 pm

    Aunt Mavis says:
    Sunday, September 16, 2018 at 11:15 pm
    nath:

    Please stop being a dickhead! I mean to say, I find more sane people at AA.

    AM

    I don’t quite know what to make of that comment. I am a tea totaler myself but I’ve been to AA meetings and met many of the people there and I wouldn’t characterise them in that way. They just have an addiction they are trying to deal with that’s all.

    I think he means Asparagus Anonymous.

  4. Thank f#ck it’s Monday tomorrow and Parliament is sitting, first the TPP and then this height sh!t.

    PB abhors a vacuum! 🙂

  7. More same old: The Morrison government will this week seek Senate support to legislate proposals to disqualify law-breaking union officials.

  9. Can’t believe all this sh@t about how tall Bill Shorten is, if this is all that you lot have to call him out on, looks like we will have a Labor Government next year, and thank goodness

  10. https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/political-football-winmar-statue-yet-to-find-a-home-20180916-p50433.html?crpt=homepage

    I was at this game in 1993, though we didn’t see the actual incident because we were up the other end. Initially when talk of a statue came up I thought it should be in Victoria because that was where Nicky Winmar did this famous gesture, but I have changed to be in favour of it being placed in Perth. I hope that it actually happens soon, as I think it would be a worthy symbol to be erected as the first statue at the new stadium. And our family would also love it if a copy could me made and placed at St.Kilda’s old home ground and current training base at Moorabbin where Nicky played so many of his games.

  11. Zoidlord 1212am

    Nearly missed your post of that Victoria poll – Labor leading 53-47.

    Matthew Guy and his colleagues will send their collective thanks to their Federal counterparts!

    Now if Dutton can just hang around at least until the November 24 Victorian election…

  13. Clem, Dr Phelps may be a Tory in many ways, but at least she seems to be saying some sane things about climate change. Better that sort of Tory than the crazy sort of Tory.

  15. Previously IPSOS has had problems. Were they one of the polls that herded towards the mean at the last election?

    I am on holidays, normally I would have an interest in reading some of the Fairfax write ups to see how they spin it, but not while away.

  16. Reverting temporarily to last night’s discussion.
    1. In photos of Shorten/Turnbull beside each other, Turnbull’s head is much larger. (Obvious comment withheld!)
    2. I had a friend who was about 5’5″. Her husband was 6’2″. She said one of the most annoying things was that he tended only to see people of similar height and could never find her in a crowd.

  19. Height is very deceptive, especially on camera. How you carry yourself, who you’re standing with, the position and angle of the camera, even just general personality traits (whether you act in a way people subconsciously associate with a “tall” or a “short” person) has just as much impact on how your height is perceived as how tall you actually are.

    As someone who is reasonably tall myself (around 185 cm* according to my driver’s licence, not sure what that is in silly imperial measurements), I think its pretty overrated. In my experience, being tall is 40% hitting your head on stuff, 30% reaching things for shorter people, and 30% being told how lucky you are to be tall.

    * I might be a bit taller, I was only sixteen when that measurement was done

  20. For those who don’t know Sydney, Wentworth demographics are such that the print publications of choice are:

    1. The Wentworth Courier – focussed on real estate, and the council doings
    2. Sydney Morning Herald
    3. The Jewish Times
    4. The Star Observer – gay happenings
    5. Australian Financial Review
    6. The SmearStralian
    99. The Daily ToiletPaper – only for Western Sydney bogans

    By the end of today, everyone in Wentworth will know Kerryn Phelps is running against some blow in from the North Shore.

  22. For those not familiar with the Canberra cascade of prime ministers — six in the last decade — the latest brutal leadership “spill” is best explained with a comparison to a famous sporting spill.

    In 2002, ice skater Steven Bradbury became the first Australian to win a Winter Olympic gold medal when his three top rivals crashed in a last-minute pileup. The right-wing Peter Dutton kicked off the coup that felled Malcolm Turnbull, but then the slimy Dutton and the soignée Julie Bishop crashed in a pileup that allowed the unprepossessing Morrison to glide across the finish line.

    ScoMo, as the Antipodean prime minister is nicknamed, was not particularly well known but had clearly had his skates laced up for some time. He got off to a fast start, flying to Indonesia to negotiate a trade deal; visiting the outback to spotlight his focus on the drought (even though he absurdly told me about climate change that “I just don’t think it’s relevant to the discussion about how we’re helping farmers” and urged drought victims to “pray for that rain”); and vowing to pass a religious freedom bill in determinedly secular Australia, where Pentecostals are commonly referred to as “happy clappers.”

    “We don’t want all this political correct nonsense telling people they can’t have an Easter hat parade” or a Christmas play in a public school, Australia’s first Pentecostal prime minister told me. “In my maiden speech, I talked about the voices of faith being driven from the public square.”

    I wonder if, like Karen Pence, the devout Morrison was bothered by Trump’s flouting of the Commandments. (Thou Shalt Not Covet All the Playmates and Porn Stars at a Lake Tahoe Golf Tournament.)

    …
    His office features a model migrant boat bearing the proud declaration “I Stopped These,” and a cabinet adorned with a Jesus shrine and a biblical proverb to “Trust in the Lord.” Morrison, who did not condemn Trump’s infamous travel ban, is never able to convincingly explain how he reconciles his Christian values and the role he plays in dooming children to offshore detention centers.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/15/opinion/columnists/trump-finally-makes-a-friend.html

  23. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    David Crowe writes that the Liberals mage a big mistake with the leadership change and this is proven by the latest poll.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/fairfax-ipsos-poll-one-key-finding-proves-the-liberals-have-made-a-calculation-that-defies-logic-20180916-p5044w.html
    Bevan Shields examines the fallout from the Warringah renomination of Abbott. He says the Liberals are concerned that a quality independent could now win the seat. And Labor’s Dean Harris has been doing a good job so far,
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/this-will-be-abbott-s-last-term-how-the-tide-turned-against-former-pm-in-warringah-20180916-p5042j.html
    Jennifer Hewitt tells us that Morrison needs to show the government is focused on addressing the problems of voters rather than those of the Liberal party.
    https://outline.com/8j5TqZ
    Peter Mares puts the case for taxing the family home.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/housing-it-s-time-for-the-lucky-to-share-some-of-their-good-fortune-20180913-p503hx.html
    Michelle Grattan writes that now that Kerryn Phelps has confirmed she’s running as an independent in Wentworth, the battle is set up as a fascinating test between the campaigning skills of a tyro prime minister and the attraction of a community-based candidate.
    https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-morrison-faces-the-challenge-of-community-based-candidate-in-wentworth-103305
    Hayne’s witness box can be a brutal place.
    https://outline.com/49CKvT
    Frank Lowy says that proper policy requires a parliament led by a stable government.
    https://www.smh.com.au/opinion/lowy-proper-policy-requires-a-parliament-led-by-a-stable-government-20180916-p50440.html
    In a very good contribution Tony Walker has some good tips for Morrison, Learning to shout less is one of them.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/tips-for-our-new-pm-1-learn-to-shout-less-20180914-p503qb.html
    George Williams declares that we must know if Dutton is eligible to sit in parliament.
    https://outline.com/HwGwN4
    An obviously pleased Adele Ferguson says that a royal commission will finally give the elderly a voice. She says that including retirement villages into the remit takes some effort, including writing to the states. But if the government is truly serious about cleaning up this sector, it needs to do it. This is far too important an issue to be a half-baked royal commission.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/royal-commission-will-finally-give-the-elderly-a-voice-20180915-p5040v.html
    Morrison has angrily denied cutting $1.2 billion in aged care funding as he announced a royal commission into the sector.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/09/16/morrison-aged-care-royal-commission/
    Phil Coorey says that Morrison learns the lesson of the banks as he goes after aged care. Will the energy sector be next cab off the royal commission rank?
    https://outline.com/sNMqMw
    Christopher Knaus reveals that the two most powerful figures in the National party executive simultaneously hold senior roles with lobbying firms that push the interests of big business, including banks, oil and coal companies, payday lenders and the multinational contractor Serco.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/sep/17/top-nationals-pair-hold-senior-roles-at-big-business-lobby-firms
    Knaus continues by reporting that more than half of all Australian lobbyists previously worked inside government or for the major political parties, with one in four staffing the offices of ministers, parliamentary secretaries or backbenchers.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/sep/16/in-the-family-majority-of-australias-lobbyists-are-former-political-insiders
    Joanne McCarthy reports that Australia’s Catholic priests have responded to the “cathartic experience” of the child abuse royal commission with a push for optional celibacy, married priests and a plan to take the issues to the Vatican.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/we-live-in-joyful-hope-plan-to-allow-married-catholic-priests-20180916-p5042e.html
    Surely not! The Coalition will refocus environment policies on the Abbott-era Direct Action plan, including a rebooted Green Army and a ­reverse auction scheme to ­improve land management and help communities, ­Environment Minister Melissa Price has ­declared.
    https://outline.com/gp6j8Y
    The major banks face years of rolling litigation and potentially billions of dollars in additional compensation as law firms prepare test cases over mortgage lending practices.
    https://outline.com/e39J4f
    Speculation about the impeachment of Donald Trump is escalating in Washington, after the president’s former campaign chief Paul Manafort’s decision to cooperate with investigators.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/sep/16/impeachment-trump-manafort-robert-mueller-deal
    Anna Patty tells us that A conservative think tank, The Menzies Research Centre, has questioned whether unions should keep their tax-free status given their combined income has risen by 42 per cent to hundreds of billions of dollars in the past 14 years as a result of revenue they get from financial services for members.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace/push-for-unions-to-be-taxed-like-companies-20180914-p503q0.html?crpt=homepage
    Australia’s migrant council has urged caution against a strong push towards new arrivals moving to regional areas, believing it could stunt economic growth.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/sep/16/coalition-told-pushing-new-migrants-into-australias-regions-could-undermine-economy
    ASIC is likely to say that politicians are largely to blame for letting the $41 billion insurance industry off the hook over problems exposed by the Hayne royal commission.
    https://outline.com/CA6F2z
    Adele Ferguson previews what Suncorp will be facing when it fronts the royal commission this week.
    https://outline.com/LERMaz
    John McDuling on the possibility of Apple becoming a casualty of the US-China trade war.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/crunch-time-could-trump-and-china-test-investor-faith-in-apple-20180914-p503u3.html
    A California woman who has accused Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh of sexual misconduct when they were in high school has come forward, alleging in an interview that Kavanaugh pinned her to a bed at a Maryland house party and clumsily tried to remove her clothing. Sounds just like a Trump choice.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/supreme-court-nominee-accuser-comes-forward-20180917-p5045n.html
    Japanese energy juggernaut, Marubeni Corp, is getting out of coal and dramatically accelerating its shift into renewable energy.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/marubenis-shock-exit-from-coal/
    Cara Waters explains how the rise of tap and go is slugging bottom lines.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/small-business/rise-of-tap-and-go-slugs-bottom-lines-20180913-p503jd.html

    Cartoon Corner – they are few and far between today!

    David Rowe on aged care in Warringah.

    A nice shot at rh government from Sean Leahy.

    Jon Kudelka visits Warringah.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/7be04b03d64d7d45ffbb4b3599125bde
    David Pope gives Dutton a taste of his own medicine.
    https://static.ffx.io/images/$width_828/t_resize_width/t_sharpen%2Cq_auto%2Cf_auto/8db767b354759eff718889380c89a78aa99cacfa
    Some more in here.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/best-of-fairfax-cartoons-september-16-2018-20180916-h15gec.html

  24. Ipsos brings “The Noise”. Commenters bring “The Narrative”. We just can’t help imposing patterns of coherence on each new event which impinges on consciousness, whether it signifies a real change or not.

  25. Morning all. Interesting poll. In fact, weird poll. The last two weeks has seen the Coalition’s numbers improve? Really?

    Anyway the good governing will roll on from our beloved leader ScumMo. With the support of his united and loyal party behind him, he will next demonstrate the compassion of the Liberal Party by holding an RC into aged care. And he will not shirk from the fact that most of the problems are due to Hockey and Morrison himself ripped billions out of care funding as treasurers. Yep, he will take full personal responsibility.

    Also this new found concern is in no way an attempt to shift the media spotlight away from climate change to an issue that guarantees bipartisan support. No. There will be no cries of “Grandpa overboard” or “stop the deaths” from Morrison. He cares! Most of these people vote Liberal.

  27. Morrison is clearly throwing caution to the wind and doing anything and everything his marketing man’s brain can seize upon in hopes of mitigating the extent of the loss, and thus holding onto the leadership.

    1. Aged care royal commission. Tick. Politically smart.
    2. Send out a social media video that is bound to cause controversy and reach many who are entirely disengaged, especially the young. Tick. A big asterisk here though, as it’s quite probable this was a stuff-up rather than a strategy.
    3. Keep your main leadership rival, Peter Dutton, dangling in no-man’s land for as long as possible to ensure maintaining numbers in Parliament. Then, perhaps late this week, yield to pressure to refer him to the High Court and thus neutralise him for a spell, and quite likely forever.
    4. Use religion. It seems counter-intuitive but many key players are church-goers: Turnbull, Shorten, Penny Wong. Australians may be largely secular but most people don’t mind someone committed to a belief system provided they don’t bang on about it too much.
    5. Dog whistling. This is the nasty stuff and Morrison’s marketing brain will know how to play this to maximum effect. He is “helping” the Victorian Libs with the very unpleasant Sudanese gang stuff and he’ll do whatever he thinks it will take federally too. Not sure if it was mentioned here but Michael Sukkar wrote a vile piece in the Australian the other linking infrastructure, congestion and immigration. It was vile because it sounded all so mild-mannered, and emphasised how he was of Lebanese stock.

  28. Joe aston at the back of the AFR notes that five Morrison supporters voted to bring down Malcolm, then writes:

    “Make no mistake, this new PM stood by the last PM just like he stood by the one before. Like Brutus stood by Caesar. At least Roman traitors could string a sentence together.”

  30. I assume a good deal of the PPM polling is now voters saying: for God sakes, please don’t drop and break this PM as well. We want him to hang around until we can shoot him at the next election.

  31. It seems, in the acknowledged absence of Coalition policy, Scott Morrison is going to lead a bells and whistles government in order to get noticed. It’s a high wire act with no safety net and the PR PM could fall at any time if he puts a foot wrong.

  33. What is the point of Direct Action? Feds always blame the states and wash their hands of the results.
    And Gladys is allowing more land to be cleared in NSW.

    Environment groups have also said benefits from the ERF have been more than offset by increased land-clearing in Queensland and NSW.

    Ms Price said land-clearing predominantly was a responsibility for state government.

  34. But Mr Abbott’s key NSW Liberal ally, Craig Kelly, a backbench rebel who was pivotal in destroying the National Energy Guarantee and Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership, is set to be wiped out in preselection for his seat of Hughes. The moderates have the numbers to install Kent Johns and with Mr Turnbull gone, are no longer worried about threats by Mr Abbott and others to wreak havoc if Mr Kelly were dumped.

    One source said Mr Kelly would only be saved if Mr Morrison, who has the nearby Sutherland Shire seat of Cook, used the power of the “shire mafia” to prevail upon Mr Johns to withdraw. But anger is high among the moderates following Mr Turnbull’s ouster and thus far, while Mr Morrison has backed Mr Kelly as the sitting member, he has not intervened further. No date has been set for the Hughes preselection.

    https://www.afr.com/news/nsw-lib-turmoil-as-another-mp-quits-craig-kelly-faces-defeat-20180915-h15fp7

    Why couldn’t the moderates field a candidate against Abbott? Craig Kelly will not be missed that’s for sure.

  36. Sally McManus
    @sallymcmanus
    ·
    30m
    I will be addressing Qantas workers rallying today 12:45pm outside QF HQ in Mascot to protest the Board’s decision to refuse to share their profits after workers accepted pay freezes & they awarded the CEO huge bonuses. They are sick the disrespect.

    Qantas CEO is getting way too much money.

  37. Kavanaugh assault accuser breaks silence: ‘I thought he might inadvertently kill me’

    In an interview with the Washington Post, the woman who accused Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh of sexually assaulting her when they were in high school detailed what happened the night of the alleged incident.

    Identifying herself as Christine Blasey Ford, she told the Post’s Emma Brown that she feared for her life.

    “I thought he might inadvertently kill me,” said Ford, now a 51-year-old research psychologist in northern California. “He was trying to attack me and remove my clothing.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/09/kavanaugh-assault-accuser-breaks-silence-thought-might-inadvertently-kill/

  38. Oh how I lolled at the Conservatives tactical ‘genius’ backfiring on them:

    But Mr Abbott’s key NSW Liberal ally, Craig Kelly, a backbench rebel who was pivotal in destroying the National Energy Guarantee and Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership, is set to be wiped out in preselection for his seat of Hughes. The moderates have the numbers to install Kent Johns and with Mr Turnbull gone, are no longer worried about threats by Mr Abbott and others to wreak havoc if Mr Kelly were dumped.

    “I just think that is the worst possible look, the only way we can win the election is if we have harmony inside our party and we sure ain’t going to have harmony if Craig Kelly gets rolled,” Mr Abbott threatened in May.

    https://www.afr.com/news/nsw-lib-turmoil-as-another-mp-quits-craig-kelly-faces-defeat-20180915-h15fp7

  39. When an ‘independent’ candidate opens with the line “I’m in the sensible centre, ” you just know they are a rabid Tory.

  40. Diogenes

    I note also that North Adelaide received 31 free kicks to WWT’s 17 – and won by 5 points

    Perhaps because they had 19 players on the field?

    How can those on the bench, including officials, not realise they have only 2 interchange players sitting there and not 3?

    The outcome will be interesting – but the SANFL are not noted for their competence

  41. Interesting Zoidlord. That, I assume, is Abbott’s residual influence, such as it is. But I agree. If Morrison really threw caution to the wind here, he would tell the coal industry donor types to get stuffed and he’d embrace the new energy sector with both his pentecostal arms.

    That Graham Lloyd environment writer in the Oz is a prime fool. It was fascinating to read the profiles of the 30 prominent Australians the Oz featured in its weekend magazine’s 30th edition. A very large number cited action on climate change as a key goal for the future; (just as many cited Rudd’s apology and Mabo as the most significant events of the last 30 years).

  45. Rick Wilsons latest :

    Down, down, down: The Manafort plea is very bad news for President Trump

    Can you smell it?

    That pungent, stinging reek in the air is a fear-drenched river of flop sweat rolling off Trump and his professional defenders. For Team Trump’s endless attempts to change the subject, toss out shiny distractions, beef with NFL players, boast about Trump’s self-graded A-plus hurricane responses and whine about the hated media, Robert Mueller landed a very big fish Friday.

    By securing a cooperation agreement with Paul Manafort, Mueller unlocks a Pandora’s Box of crazy-making trouble for this White House and this President.

    If Michael Cohen was a roadmap to the center of Trump’s financial and personal sleaze and corruption, Manafort is a travel guide to the inner workings of the Trump campaign, and of the actions of Russian spies and billionaire oligarchs to manipulate American interests and elections.

    MORE : http://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/ny-oped-down-down-down-20180914-story.html

  46. While his friend watched, she said, Kavanaugh pinned her to a bed on her back and groped her over her clothes, grinding his body against hers and clumsily attempting to pull off her one-piece bathing suit and the clothing she wore over it. When she tried to scream, she said, he put his hand over her mouth.

    “I thought he might inadvertently kill me,” said Ford, now a 51-year-old research psychologist in northern California. “He was trying to attack me and remove my clothing.”

    Ford said she was able to escape when Kavanaugh’s friend and classmate at Georgetown Preparatory School, Mark Judge, jumped on top of them, sending all three tumbling. She said she ran from the room, briefly locked herself in a bathroom and then fled the house.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/california-professor-writer-of-confidential-brett-kavanaugh-letter-speaks-out-about-her-allegation-of-sexual-assault/2018/09/16/46982194-b846-11e8-94eb-3bd52dfe917b_story.html?utm_term=.44cbe589d71d

  47. alias says: Monday, September 17, 2018 at 8:05 am

    I’ll pay attention to the Kavanaugh sexual assault story when one of the mainstream papers like the NYT runs it. Have they?

    ***************************************************

    Washington Post OK ?????

    California professor, writer of confidential Brett Kavanaugh letter, speaks out about her allegation of sexual assault

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/california-professor-writer-of-confidential-brett-kavanaugh-letter-speaks-out-about-her-allegation-of-sexual-assault/2018/09/16/46982194-b846-11e8-94eb-3bd52dfe917b_story.html?utm_term=.2b9b2b74e199&noredirect=on

  49. Josh Bornstein‏Verified account @JoshBBornstein

    After the banks, insurance companies, super funds. Now the predators in aged care will be exposed. All because strong government regulation & enforcement went out of fashion.

    Remember the push to get rid of red tape to save money?

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