The latest fortnightly Essential Research follows Newspoll in recording an allergic reaction to the dumping of Malcolm Turnbull, with Labor’s 52-48 lead blowing out to 55-45. The report in The Guardian reveals the Coalition is down four on the primary vote to 35%, but that’s all we have for now. There is also no direct indication of whether the poll adjusted its usual Thursday to Sunday field work period to account for the leadership change on Friday, as Newspoll did by chopping out the Thursday, but the supplementary questions suggest as much. UPDATE: Full results here. They indeed held back starting the field work until Friday evening. The primary votes are Coalition 35% (down four), Labor 39% (up two), Greens 10% (steady), One Nation 7% (up one).
Some of these findings add to a confused picture when considered in conjunction with other polls. Scott Morrison holds a 39-29 lead over Bill Shorten in prime minister, which reverses the Newspoll result but is in line with the findings of ReachTEL’s seat polls for the Fairfax papers. Fifty-two per cent supported an early election, which is a very different finding from the ReachTEL polls. Then again, 56% agreed Scott Morrison should be given time “to show he can do a better job of governing Australia”, so who knows what people want.
Conversely, a question on preferred Liberal leader produces similar results to Newspoll: Malcolm Turnbull falls from 28% to 15% as support shifts to Julie Bishop (up seven to 23%) and Scott Morrison (up eight to 10%), while Tony Abbott and Peter Dutton remain much as they were, on 9% and 4% respectively. The poll also includes the somewhat surprising finding (to me at least) that 35% approve of the leadership change, with 40% disapproving. A striking 57% agreed with the proposition that “the Liberal party is divided and no longer fit to govern Australia”.
Also featured are semi-regular questions on the parties’ attributes, which I might have something to say about when I see the full results, and questions on six policy propositions, which find support for lower immigration, opposition to withdrawing from the Paris agreement, mixed views on funding more coal-fired power plants and opposition to company tax cuts.
Also today, The Australian has rolled together results from the last three Newspolls under Malcolm Turnbull to produce a final set of quarterly state breakdowns for his prime ministership, interrupting their usual schedule of publishing these at the end of each quarter. The results are very like those of BludgerTrack in finding solid swings against the government in Queensland (4.1%) and Western Australia (4.7%), only small swings in New South Wales (0.9%) and Victoria (2.2%), and a swing to the Coalition in South Australia (3.3%), where the Liberals seem to be benefiting from the new state government’s honeymoon and the decline of Nick Xenophon. UPDATE: Full results here; HT to GhostWhoVotes.
Finally, it is anticipated that a by-election in Wentworth will be held on October 6, after Malcolm Turnbull today told colleagues he would resign from parliament on Friday. While Christine Foster, Sydney councillor and sister of Tony Abbott, has attracted the most media attention, Andrew Clennell of The Australian reports the more likely Liberal candidate is Dave Sharma, former ambassador to Israel. Others mentioned as candidates are Andrew Bragg, a director at the Business Council of Australia and former leader of the Yes same-sex marriage survey campaign, who will vie with Sharma for backing from factional moderates; Peter King, tha barrister who held the seat from 2001 until Turnbull defeated him for preselection in 2004; Katherine O’Regan, a Woollahra councillor.
DaretoTread, other than being a know-it-all, you know nothing, about me, or any of the other snarkily-nomenclatured ‘Groupers’ you imagine exist on PB in that collection of cobwebs you call a brain, if it’s true that I am who you are breathlessly referring to in your reply to Clem Atlee. I would no sooner preference the Liberal Party, or any other conservative collection of political wingnuts than poke myself in the eye with a printed and sharpened collection of your verbose idiocy!
Great barb about au pairs in response to immigration question.
don @ #1393 Wednesday, August 29th, 2018 – 9:52 pm
Thanks Don.
Naturally I attribute this error to brain fade. Not mine ~ anybody else. 😊
Mari:
Thanks for that. It speaks volumes that there are these outbreaks of dissent directed at Liberal women MP. JBishop, KOD, SenReynolds, Banks. Now Sudmalis.
DaretoTread @ #1378 Wednesday, August 29th, 2018 – 9:44 pm
I disagree dtt, the Russians have perfected their jumping jacks and push-ups to such an extent that it beats any other military capability by any other country on earth.
This article goes into more detail:
Russian Military Exercises: An Overlooked Art?
https://www.latlmes.com/world/russian-military-exercises-an-overlooked-art
Great answer to immigration and refugees talking about humanity towards others and humanity in our public discourse, and then support for ABC funding. Committed to not being a small target opposition.
On Victorian politics, Andrews announced a long term plan to build a Melbourne suburban rail loop yesterday that made excellent sense. Finally some long term planning. If we stopped building freeways it could be done in a decade but I digress.
Today this Age article criticised the lack of detail. No kidding Fairfax! What a silly criticism. There is no standing program to fund rail projects. To give more detail requires a major planning study. That takes years and millions, not to mention IA approval for the funding, unless the Federal government is feeling generous that week. So it is impossible to go through the transport planning process as it stands without Federal sign off and cash. So why criticise Andrews for an impossible to answer issue that is a function of the current Federal transport policy?
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/suburban-rail-loop-plan-has-lots-of-merit-but-let-s-see-the-detail-20180828-p50091.html
Millennial
Bloody hell those Russian army push ups are amazing 🙂
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eINLfzEKz8M
On the Julia Banks bullying revelations, was I the only one who found these words rather cringeworthy, in a society trying to stamp out domestic violence?
“Liberal MP Craig Kelly has said that her resignation is the wrong thing to do and that she should “roll with the punches in this game”.
https://postimg.cc/image/41adij2f9/
The first item Link requires a click to open in another tab.
while the second item Direct Link directly opens and displays the image.
And now I lay me down to sleep, I pray (prey for Nats and Libs)….
Don “PS, does this photo show on a phone?”
It, whatever it is, shows on my iPad.
Socrates @ #1411 Wednesday, August 29th, 2018 – 8:11 pm
It is esp unsavoury.
KJ:
The first item Link requires a click to open in another tab.
while the second item Direct Link directly opens and displays the image.
And now I lay me down to sleep, I pray (prey for Nats and Libs)….
______________________
I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again:
Computers only …….just…… work.
In the sweet bye and bye, you would simply paste an image into the comment box.
“I would no sooner preference the Liberal Party, or any other conservative collection of political wingnuts than poke myself in the eye with a printed and sharpened collection of your verbose idiocy!”
Gold
Confessions @ #1412 Wednesday, August 29th, 2018 – 10:15 pm
Similar to the ‘things that batter’ quote from the serial idiot Downer.
poroti @ #1406 Wednesday, August 29th, 2018 – 10:09 pm
I thought it was fake at first but sh*t. If that if for real he has strong abdominals!
Closing Nauru and Manus getting another run.
Mental health getting another run, seems to be a bit of a focus tonight.
Tom:
And akin to Lib spruikers Ross Cameron and Chris Kenny blaming her for the party’s woes.
C@tmomma @ #1399 Wednesday, August 29th, 2018 – 10:00 pm
Hit a nerve did I Cat.
I did not name you although possibly the cap fits. You are not the ONLY extreme RWNJ here. It is actually not always about you.
I am glad that you would not preference the LNP. What about others of our many greenophobics here.
In all honesty Cat I can think of at least three on this site as a minimum who would probably preference the libs ahead of the Greens (of those who support Labor I mean).
grimace is doing a good job as rapporteur…Bill Shorten doing a great job as LOTO, Labor leader and PM-in-waiting…
What these pages contain are what I would hope is an enough is enough response from Banks and anyone with integrity – and not just women
Mind you, I still look forward to confirmation of expulsions from NSW Labor in regards the Husar leaking and any false allegations
grimace:
This issue has a lot of legs. This apology of an man has seven negatived properties in my home state, and has recently purchased a “mansion” in Palm Beach, in the sum of $23M. He reminds me of the pre-Fitzgerald era, where many of the streets were named after the white-shoe brigade, where in the QPS HQ’s gallery, the corrupt former police commissioner’s Lewis’ portrait is still in sutui.
Re. Posting images, re. Kayjays helpful 10:12 post.
The second link will display on the page.
That link has two characteristics
* link is https (not http).
* link ends in an image extension .png, other supported extensions: .jpeg, .gif
Shorten just agreed with P1 that we need to burn more gas.
And when I say expulsions I do not include names – merely that Party membership has been rescinded as a result of an internal investigation into the circumstances of the leaks
Shorten sounds like a dedicated policy wonk…depth knowledge is really impressive…has an ability to integrate the whole policy package…
Socrates Fess and Tom
Kelly would have made those comments with a smirk, he knew what he was saying.
My original thinking re Hussar and Banks was that they should both have resigned as both parties have failed them.
Ultimately it would have given both parties a well deserved kick as both would likely have lost their seats.
But I suppose in staying both are saying that they remain loyal and hope both parties can reform and fix their problems.
https://mobile.twitter.com/messages/983274021142724608/media/1034775764506308612
DT getting desperate now?
Good to see you back Trog, hope all continues well with your treatment.
My big worry with the libs is that they will try and inflict wide damage to the renewable sector before they are kicked out.
Abbott did enormous damage in his short time.
Stephen Spencer
@sspencer_63
13s13 seconds ago
Someone told me long ago
There’s a calm before the storm
I know it’s been comin’ for some time
When it’s over so they say
It’ll rain a sunny day
I know shinin’ down like water
I want to know
What’s the go with the au pairs?
Boris @ #1430 Wednesday, August 29th, 2018 – 8:37 pm
Without a doubt. The culture inside the Liberal party is obvious very anti-woman.
file:///C:/Users/Ken/Desktop/MarieSky.jpg
https://www.hbo.com/real-time-with-bill-maher
I strongly recommend that you all watch Bill Maher’s interview with John Brennan.
Yabba
I had watched interview from Real Time show on weekend.
John Brennan did not mince his words.
Zoidlord
Is Stephen Spencer attempting to be cryptic?
Briefly, briefly – and with no disrespect – you appear to have a problem with the fifth letter of the Greek alphabet(?).
I found this piece on the origins of Trump/Russia/Russian mob gripping.
Something was wrong.
At first, it was just instinct. During the Republican primaries, things weren’t adding up for us with Donald Trump.
Something was wrong. WHAT was it?
It is there for all to see. Here it is…
There is a man who controls our President
And his name is not Vladimir Putin.
THE MASTER HUNTERS
Before we reveal the name, we need to tell you of the hunters who came before.
This story – the big truth behind #TrumpRussia – is one that goes back decades. While everyone in the media chased the “scoop of the moment,” we dug into the past. There, we found two men, who gave their lives to hunt the criminal force behind our President.
These hunters were patriots. They were professional law enforcement and intelligence officers at the top of their game. They committed themselves to revealing the name that we’re about to disclose, and they gave their lives as a result.
The American
We begin with the American: former DEA and FBI agent, Bob Levinson. While at the FBI, Levinson pursued the world’s most wanted criminals to keep America safe. He hunted the mob.
It is the most dangerous work in all of law enforcement.
The people Levinson chased are murderers, sex traffickers, drug lords and arms dealers – including those who trade in nuclear material. At their most tepid, these criminals lure the vulnerable into their scams to rob them blind. At their most craven, they flood our communities with drugs and ravage families for profit. At their most evil, they fund the networks that inspire terrorist attacks on innocent civilians. If you hunt them, they will kill you. They will kill your family.
Bob Levinson knew the stakes, and yet he went after the most dangerous criminal of them all. Because Levinson is a patriot. He is the definition of that word. He is a hero.
He is also a master hunter.
http://www.citjourno.org/page-1
No Soc, you weren’t the only one. I, like several posters above, thought it was at least a very unfortunate choice of metaphor and probably reflected something nasty about Mr Kelly’s thought processes.
‘night all
OM…..yes, I noticed, but was interrupted before I could correct it. The screensaver on my phone seems to create some very odd additions and omissions at times…it’s not helped by having rubbish eyesight
I’d like to commend grimace on the excellent work he’s doing to support the candidate for Pearce, Kim Travers, who gave a very impressive speech at the Townhall tonight.
[‘I strongly recommend that you all watch Bill Maher’s interview with John Brennan.’]
He does Yabba, even thougt he carry’s on a little – typical Yank.
Good to observe that Pope Francis has spoken out re. pedophila – despite GG’s ostensible denial of same.
This story is from March, but is still chilling to revisit.
‘Everyone thinks he was whacked’: New evidence has emerged that a Russian media mogul was beaten to death by hired thugs in Washington”
Here are the key points that BuzzFeed has uncovered about Lesin’s death and the subsequent investigation:
The oligarch who hired people to beat up Lesin did not intend for him to die, but the assault apparently went too far.
Lesin’s death took place just before he was slated to sit down for an interview with the Justice Department, which wanted to speak to him about the workings of RT.
Three other individuals besides Steele told the FBI that Lesin had been murdered by Russian security agents.
The police department released a 58-page report on Lesin’s death in December that had significant redactions and made no mention of the coroner’s findings that Lesin had died of blunt force trauma all over his body.
The hotel security footage from a camera outside Lesin’s room that should have recorded three critical hours before he died was found to be defective. The Metropolitan Police refused to tell BuzzFeed whether they had ever managed to review this footage.
https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/amp.businessinsider.com/christopher-steele-fbi-mikhail-lesin-rt-russia-murdered-2018-3
This site is becoming so boring that I think I might have to return – not that I include you, Don – that I might have to return to Fairfax – Jeebus!
The Townhall was very well-attended….at least 300 thru the doors. The questions were good. As usual, Helen Tuck from WA Labor Women, raised a specially pertinent and original issue. She’s just an excellent contributor to the issues and debate. She’s a clear thinker and a great asset.
Sue Lines, the campaign director for Pearce, also spoke and was reassuringly warm and amusing.
There’s a quite pervasive sense of expectancy now – expectancy that we’re going to win seats; that we’re going to win the election. There’s no complacency at all – far from it – but there’s real confidence that Labor is ready, is unified, is organised.
I also think that people really hope for much more from Labor than they let on – especially when it comes to jobs, incomes and social policies. In conversations with people after the meeting, it was clear that working people are hurting. This too bodes badly for the LNP.
Old Mavis…I try to add some zest…but not everyone shares my tastes in politics 🙂
Old Mavis @ #1443 Thursday, August 30th, 2018 – 12:01 am
Hey Mavis
Stay a while
I am sure we can liven it up for you
What do you want RGR, gas flame was. The Donald. We have them all